026
FXAK67 PAJK 071740
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
840 AM AKST Fri Nov 7 2025

.UPDATE...
18z Aviation Update

&&

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- A gale force low lingers in the NW Gulf, bringing another front
  across the panhandle this morning with lingering showers
  lasting into tonight.

- Best chances for light snow Friday night is along the highways
  in the far northern panhandle, but areas near the Icy Strait
  corridor have a slight chance (20%) to see snow if the lower
  atmosphere can cool down enough to support snow down to sea
  level.

SHORT TERM...Another front moves into the panhandle this morning
associated with the gale force low centered around Kenai
Peninsula, the front moving W to E across the panhandle through
the day before some lingering showers follow lasting into
tonight. This is not expected to bring much in terms of
precipitation amounts, with the highest precipitation rates being
0.05 to 0.10 inches in an hour but not lasting long as the front
moves quickly through, keeping the moderate rainfall during a
short period as the front hits. Overall expecting between 0.3 to
0.6 inches across the central and northern panhandle as well as
along the NE Gulf coast, and 0.2 to 0.4 for the southern panhandle
in 24 hours from both the frontal passage and showers following
it. For the Haines Highway and Klondike Highway, both are expected
to see about 1 inch of snowfall today, and another 1 to 2 inches
for tonight before the precipitation begins to diminish into
tomorrow.

Winds are expected to increase with the frontal passage this
morning across the panhandle, diminishing in the southern
panhandle into tonight while the northern panhandle remains seeing
some elevated wind speeds. Most of this will be seen over marine
areas, and less of the winds impacting land areas. The exception
to this will be Skagway for this evening into tonight, expecting
around 20-25 mph southerly winds with gusts up to 30-35 mph
possible as the front moves through and tightens the N-S gradient
over the northern panhandle.

Continuing to see the drop in snow level tonight after the front
fully moves through and as cold air begins to push into the
panhandle, with 850 mb temperatures still looking to be dropping
to -5 to -7C with the coldest temperatures over the northern half
of the panhandle. High res guidance is still showing some 20-30%
chances of snow around Icy Strait corridor northward, alongside
the snow levels dropping to under 800 ft late tonight and
continuing to decrease by Saturday morning. The biggest
forecasting concern remains if the surface temperatures will be
cold enough, alongside the wet bulb temperatures at the lower
levels, to support a mix of snow and rain for the northern
panhandle areas at sea level. The highest likelihood for this
looks to be for the Skagway area and Haines for early Saturday
morning.

LONG TERM...
The active pattern continues as a strong low moving up from the
eastern Pacific.

Models have begun to converge on a general track for this low
skirting just east of 140 degrees West before turning into the
panhandle as it weakens. With this feature being occluded at this
point. there will be decent moisture associated with it and
moderate to heavy precipitation is expected for the southern
panhandle, with 48 hr accumulations ranging from 2 to 5 inches as
of this forecast and more in isolated locations. Of note: these
totals may still have some room to increase across the far
southern panhandle given anticipated low level flow from the S or
SE (directions more favorable for orographic forcing in these
locations). ARIs have increased a step, and are hovering around 2
to 5 year return intervals. While no significant river flooding
is expected, stream rises are likely. Windy conditions are also
expected as this system moves through with the strongest winds
likewise in the southern half of SE AK. A High wind watch has been
issued for parts of the southern panhandle from Saturday evening

The snow forecast for this system continues to pose a challenge.
Current thinking continues to be that while the lower levels
across the panhandle will be cool and there will be a northerly
wind shift ahead of the approaching low, temperatures will not be
cold enough for any appreciable snow accumulations at sea level
this weekend. Should the boundary layer decouple though, the
potential for of minor snow accumulations could exist near sea
level for Haines and Skagway. Across the Icy Strait Corridor,
given heavier precipitation rates, the atmospheric column may be
cooled just enough to allow for some minor accumulations near sea
level from the Icy Strait Corridor northward, including Juneau
itself. Confidence is greater in the chance for far more
significant snow accumulations along the Klondike Highway and at
elevation - potentially also along the Haines Highway. This will
be a very dynamic system to analyze and watch heading into the
weekend. Stay tuned for further updates throughout the week.

AVIATION...18z update. A front is currently pushing northeast
across the coast and Panhandle, with PASI reporting IFR
conditions at times from heavy rainfall and low CIGS. As this
feature continues moving northeast through the day, anticipate VFR
to diminish to MVFR with CIGS AoB FL020. Along with CIGS
diminishing, wind will increase with the front for a few hours,
current forecast confidence is for 15 to 20 knots sustained winds
developing through the afternoon and dissipating later this
evening. Overnight VFR becomes more widespread but MVFR SHRA will
be problematic through Saturday morning before our next front
pushes into the region. On timing, we will begin to see easterly
winds and +RA increase for Prince of Wales, Metlakatla, and
Ketchikan areas after 1300 local time Saturday afternoon,
persisting into Sunday. LLWS will be widespread in the central and
southern regions Saturday afternoon into Sunday.


MARINE...
Outside Waters: Westerly to southwesterly flow following the front
this morning bringing 20-25 kt winds across the Gulf waters,
becoming southerly by tonight. Decreasing winds into tonight
along the SE Gulf coast west of PoW and Cape Decision to S 10-15
kt before the next low brings in SE 15-25 kt winds by tomorrow
morning. The NE Gulf coast will see a lull this morning in wind
speeds with S to SW winds of 10-15 kt off the coast, but will
increase by tonight, switching to SE 20-30 kts with the strongest
expected near Icy Cape. 8 to 12 ft seas expected throughout the
day with the highest seas remaining further offshore in the
central Gulf. W to SW swell expected through tonight.

Inner Channels: Winds across the inner channels expected to
increase to a moderate to fresh breeze (15-20 kt) this morning as
the front moves through, impacting the channels connected to the
Gulf first and moving NE throughout the day. The elevated S fresh
breezes will remain across the northern half of the panhandle
longer into tonight, while the southern panhandle will see winds
decreasing to a gentle to moderate breeze (8-14 kt) by tonight,
only increasing again from the SE by Saturday morning. Some areas,
such as near Point Couverden and Young Bay, will see fresh to
strong breezes (18-22 kt) throughout the day even before the
front moves through.

Winds will begin as easterly to southeasterly,
with the exception of Lynn Canal remaining northerly this morning,
and shift to a south to southwesterly direction following the
frontal passage by this evening. Lynn Canal will switch from N to
S by this morning and stay southerly throughout the day, with
Northern Lynn Canal seeing strong breezes (22-27 kt) this
afternoon through tonight. Late tonight the rest of the inner
channels will switch from S to SE again, before becoming more E
into the morning as the next low approaches the southern
panhandle.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for
     AKZ328.
     High Wind Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for
     AKZ330-332.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-
     671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Contino
LONG TERM...GFS
AVIATION...AP
MARINE...Contino

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