


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
695 FXAK67 PAJK 181726 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 926 AM AKDT Sat Oct 18 2025 .UPDATE... && .SHORT TERM...Few changes made to the inherited short range forecast as unsettled weather continues across the central and northern panhandle with lingering showers Saturday morning and diminished surface winds. South of Frederick Sound, a gale force front has begun to encroach upon the panhandle with wind gusts up to 36 kt already being observed in Ketchikan and far southern Prince of Wales Island as of 430 am. These strong winds are expected to spread northward accompanied by periods of moderate to occasionally heavy rain as the front advances through the morning and afternoon hours. The strongest winds are expected to be found in Clarence Strait this morning with gusts to strong gale (41-47 kt) particularly in the area of Dixon Entrance as the front moves through. By the time it reaches Frederick Sound and the central panhandle, the front is expected to begin to shear apart, with surface winds in the inner channels falling to strong breeze (22 - 27 kt) or less. Offshore and in near coastal waters, the gradient is expected to be maintained with gale force winds extending from off Cross Sound into the Central Gulf before gradually weakening through the afternoon as the low continues to slide eastward. With mild surface temperatures and aloft, precipitation is expected to be rain at sea level, with only the upper elevations of the Klondike Highway in the far northern panhandle likely to see any mixed precipitation and potentially more slushy snow accumulation. The southern panhandle can expect rainfall amounts between 1 to 1.5 inches, with locally higher amounts possible at higher elevations and southward facing slopes. With the front expected to weaken and not push further than Icy Strait, rainfall amounts from there northward are expected to be around 0.5 inches or less. After the front moves through there will be sufficient instability for convective showers and potentially isolated thunderstorms particularly for the outer coast from Sitka southward, as well as southern Clarence Strait. Stay tuned for further updates through the day on this potential. .LONG TERM.../Sunday through Tuesday/...The low that was previously impacting the SE gulf & southern panhandle will continue to weaken & push away from the region, coming ashore south of Haida Gwaii, diminishing winds over the SE gulf to only as high as around 15 to 20 kt into Sunday evening. After a decent break in the rain & wind between weather systems on Sunday, another borderline gale force low pressure system moves in for Sunday night through the early portion of next week, which will bring enhanced wind & seas & mainly light to moderate rainfall for the panhandle with heavy rain rates possible for areas in the southern panhandle on Monday, especially areas at higher elevations as they will be experiencing topographic enhancement of the precipitation. The low will come ashore, moving from SW to NE through the central & northern panhandle while weakening late Monday night into Tuesday. Additionally, for Sunday night & into Monday & also Tuesday, some light snow accumulations are possible, primarily at the higher elevations along the Klondike Highway & potentially some lighter accumulations along the Haines Highway near the border as snow levels will be low enough & low SFC temperatures will be cold enough. && .AVIATION...Mainly MVFR flight conditions for the southern panhandle while the skies have begun to clear in the far north this morning. Rain continues over the central to southern panhandle allowing ceilings to lower during heavy precipitation. Conditions will remain similar throughout the day, slowly improving as the low pressure system moves past the southern panhandle. Through today, thunderstorms will be possible for PASI and the southern panhandle, however, confidence is not high enough to include in the TAFs. Rain will taper off beginning late afternoon into this evening, ending overnight. Winds across the north will generally be less than 10 kts through the period. Stronger winds this morning across the southern panhandle around 10 to 15v kts with gusts up to 30 kts this morning. These winds will decrease and become less than 10 kts this afternoon as the gradient relaxes. LLWS is likely across the southern and central panhandle this morning into early afternoon today, especially near PAKT. With the recent rainfall and lighter winds expected overnight, we could see development of patchy fog, especially near the southern panhandle TAF sites. && .MARINE... Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Swell direction has diminished and begun to shift from WSW to S as the next gale force low approaches the area. This low will bring easterly and northerly gale force winds to the outer coast as it approaches from the south and west. It is expected to linger briefly off the coast of Prince of Wales and Baranof Islands through Saturday before diving back to the south late Saturday. High pressure is then expected to return to the Gulf for Sunday before the next low moves into the area for late Sunday night into Monday. Inside (Inner Channels): Winds across the Inner Channels continue to range between gentle to fresh breezes (7 to 21 kt) this morning with the strongest winds near ocean entrances and along Clarence Strait. A front moving up from the south will bring gale force winds to Clarence Strait while strong breezes to near gales are expected for the rest of the Inner Channels. This low is expected to work part way up the panhandle before diving back to the south bringing high pressure and northerly winds to the Inner Channels for the weekend. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 10 AM AKDT this morning for AKZ323-328-330-332. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036-641-642-662>664. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ013-022-033>035-053-643-644-651-652- 661-671-672. && $$ SHORT TERM...STJ LONG TERM...JLC AVIATION...DS/EAB MARINE...STJ Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau