695
FXAK67 PAJK 181726
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
926 AM AKDT Sat Oct 18 2025

.UPDATE...

&&

.SHORT TERM...Few changes made to the inherited short range
forecast as unsettled weather continues across the central and
northern panhandle with lingering showers Saturday morning and
diminished surface winds. South of Frederick Sound, a gale force
front has begun to encroach upon the panhandle with wind gusts up
to 36 kt already being observed in Ketchikan and far southern
Prince of Wales Island as of 430 am. These strong winds are
expected to spread northward accompanied by periods of moderate
to occasionally heavy rain as the front advances through the
morning and afternoon hours. The strongest winds are expected to
be found in Clarence Strait this morning with gusts to strong gale
(41-47 kt) particularly in the area of Dixon Entrance as the
front moves through. By the time it reaches Frederick Sound and
the central panhandle, the front is expected to begin to shear
apart, with surface winds in the inner channels falling to strong
breeze (22 - 27 kt) or less. Offshore and in near coastal waters,
the gradient is expected to be maintained with gale force winds
extending from off Cross Sound into the Central Gulf before
gradually weakening through the afternoon as the low continues to
slide eastward.

With mild surface temperatures and aloft, precipitation is
expected to be rain at sea level, with only the upper elevations
of the Klondike Highway in the far northern panhandle likely to
see any mixed precipitation and potentially more slushy snow
accumulation. The southern panhandle can expect rainfall amounts
between 1 to 1.5 inches, with locally higher amounts possible at
higher elevations and southward facing slopes. With the front
expected to weaken and not push further than Icy Strait, rainfall
amounts from there northward are expected to be around 0.5 inches
or less. After the front moves through there will be sufficient
instability for convective showers and potentially isolated
thunderstorms particularly for the outer coast from Sitka
southward, as well as southern Clarence Strait. Stay tuned for
further updates through the day on this potential.

.LONG TERM.../Sunday through Tuesday/...The low that was
previously impacting the SE gulf & southern panhandle will
continue to weaken & push away from the region, coming ashore
south of Haida Gwaii, diminishing winds over the SE gulf to only
as high as around 15 to 20 kt into Sunday evening. After a decent
break in the rain & wind between weather systems on Sunday,
another borderline gale force low pressure system moves in for
Sunday night through the early portion of next week, which will
bring enhanced wind & seas & mainly light to moderate rainfall for
the panhandle with heavy rain rates possible for areas in the
southern panhandle on Monday, especially areas at higher
elevations as they will be experiencing topographic enhancement of
the precipitation. The low will come ashore, moving from SW to NE
through the central & northern panhandle while weakening late
Monday night into Tuesday. Additionally, for Sunday night & into
Monday & also Tuesday, some light snow accumulations are possible,
primarily at the higher elevations along the Klondike Highway &
potentially some lighter accumulations along the Haines Highway
near the border as snow levels will be low enough & low SFC
temperatures will be cold enough.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly MVFR flight conditions for the southern
panhandle while the skies have begun to clear in the far north
this morning. Rain continues over the central to southern
panhandle allowing ceilings to lower during heavy precipitation.
Conditions will remain similar throughout the day, slowly
improving as the low pressure system moves past the southern
panhandle. Through today, thunderstorms will be possible for PASI
and the southern panhandle, however, confidence is not high
enough to include in the TAFs. Rain will taper off beginning late
afternoon into this evening, ending overnight.

Winds across the north will generally be less than 10 kts through
the period. Stronger winds this morning across the southern
panhandle around 10 to 15v kts with gusts up to 30 kts this
morning. These winds will decrease and become less than 10 kts
this afternoon as the gradient relaxes. LLWS is likely across the
southern and central panhandle this morning into early afternoon
today, especially near PAKT.

With the recent rainfall and lighter winds expected overnight, we
could see development of patchy fog, especially near the southern
panhandle TAF sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Swell direction has diminished
and begun to shift from WSW to S as the next gale force low
approaches the area. This low will bring easterly and northerly
gale force winds to the outer coast as it approaches from the
south and west. It is expected to linger briefly off the coast of
Prince of Wales and Baranof Islands through Saturday before diving
back to the south late Saturday. High pressure is then expected
to return to the Gulf for Sunday before the next low moves into
the area for late Sunday night into Monday.

Inside (Inner Channels): Winds across the Inner Channels continue
to range between gentle to fresh breezes (7 to 21 kt) this
morning with the strongest winds near ocean entrances and along
Clarence Strait. A front moving up from the south will bring gale
force winds to Clarence Strait while strong breezes to near gales
are expected for the rest of the Inner Channels. This low is
expected to work part way up the panhandle before diving back to
the south bringing high pressure and northerly winds to the Inner
Channels for the weekend.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 10 AM AKDT this morning for AKZ323-328-330-332.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036-641-642-662>664.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ013-022-033>035-053-643-644-651-652-
     661-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM...JLC
AVIATION...DS/EAB
MARINE...STJ

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