281
FXAK67 PAJK 070654
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
954 PM AKST Sat Dec 6 2025

.UPDATE....Evening and 06z Aviation Update...
Snow continues across the northern panhandle with rain continuing
over the central and southern panhandle. Over the northern
panhandle, moderate snow rates continue with the exception of
Yakutat and Skagway where rates have begun to slightly diminish.
Snow over Yakutat has slightly diminished due to precipitation
ending, but is continuing to see some times snow and reduced
visibilities. The Winter Weather Advisory has been allowed to
expire with these diminishing rates. Snow rates over Skagway have
decreased due to continued northerly wind bringing dry air into
the area. Although, there is another band of moisture pushing
northward into the area. We will continue to monitor the central
and southern panhandle as temperatures decrease allowing for
wintry mix and snow to begin.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

 - Moderate to heavy snow continues over the northern panhandle
   and will continue to spread southward into central and southern
   panhandle as temperatures decrease.

 - Cold temperatures moving into SEAK to start the week, with some
   areas seeing single digits or sub zero temperatures. Apparent
   temperature along White pass dipping below -20. This weekend
   through next week, models continue falling into line behind a
   weather pattern that has been known to produce heavy snow.
   Higher confidence in totals for the northern panhandle, but
   still some uncertainty remains about timing and amounts as cold
   air pushes southward.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Monday/...A front continues moving
across the panhandle tonight, followed by multiple waves of
precipitation that will continue to move across the panhandle
throughout the rest of the weekend. Throughout the night and
morning, the arctic boundary in place has continued to push
southward quicker than initially expected following cold and dry
northerly air pushing into the northern panhandle. This trend is
expected to continue throughout the weekend, with the arctic
boundary progressively moving southward tonight and tomorrow,
moving forward the anticipated snowfall across the central
panhandle a day sooner than was expected yesterday due to the path
of the low and northerly winds pushing in faster. The boundary
should continue to slide southward and linger over Icy Strait
Corridor tonight into tomorrow as the next wave of precipitation
moves through, bringing another round of heavy snow to Juneau and
Gustavus, and allowing for colder air to move in and bring heavier
snow to Hoonah, Elfin Cove and Pelican as well. Juneau should see
additional snow accumulations of 12 to 16 inches in the next 24
hours, with the heaviest rates of 1 inch per hour being possible
early in the morning Sunday through the morning hours as the wave
of heavier precipitation moves through. Gustavus should also see
additional accumulations of 10 to 12 inches through tomorrow
afternoon. When the rest of Icy Strait Corridor sees the cold air
moving in by tonight, areas near Hoonah, Elfin Cove, and Pelican
will see more snow accumulation that will last into tomorrow
night, with between 10 and 14 inches in 24 hours expected over
Hoonah and Eastern Chichagof Island and 8 to 10 inches for the NE
Gulf Coast and Cross Sound area.

As the arctic boundary continues to move southward tomorrow into
Monday to around the central panhandle, bringing in some mixing and
snowfall. Snow mixing is expected into tomorrow for Sitka, Angoon,
Kake, and Petersburg, and becoming snow by tomorrow night. While
there will be some accumulation of less than 2 inches from Angoon
and Sitka down to Wrangell possible tomorrow, the higher snowfall
amounts and rates are not expected for the Petersburg and Wrangell
areas until Monday as the colder air and subsequent higher snow
ratios set in, alongside the next front moving through the southern
panhandle, bringing an expected 8 to 10 inches in 24 hours Monday.

Tonight the far northern panhandle will begin to see a diminishing
trend in precipitation amounts, but will still see an additional 9
to 13 inches in the next 24 hours, with the higher end of snow
accumulation being expected in Haines and along the Haines Highway.
This snow will be a lot lighter in density, and alongside the up to
40 to 50 mph gusts down parts of the Klondike Highway and Chilkat
Peninsula, some potential for blowing snow may impact areas that see
gusty winds during the heavier snow rates tonight into tomorrow.
Yakutat will also see a diminishing trend in precipitation, with the
northern panhandle not being expected to see enough moisture to see
any real snow accumulations Monday, rather staying cold and dry from
the northerly outflow keeping the next system from pushing any real
precipitation in. Instead this next system will largely impact the
southern panhandle, which will begin to see some cooler temperatures
beginning tomorrow night into Monday morning, enough for snow to mix
in and possible accumulation down to PoW and Ketchikan if the
temperatures decrease enough for accumulation from the mixing.

.LONG TERM.../Monday night through Saturday/ Arctic boundary
continues to move southward over the southern panhandle at the
start of the mid range and will likely move south of the panhandle
by mid week. Building high pressure in NW Canada and Alaska
Interior is creating offshore flow and ushering colder air through
the northern panhandle. This air is very cold with 850 mb temps
plummeting into the -15 to -25 C range by mid week across the
northern panhandle and near -10 C over the south. At sea level
this is translating to overnight lows reaching single digits above
or below zero for the north and teens and 20s for the south.
Daytime highs will struggle to get into the 20s for the north and
into the 30s for the south. Coldest temperatures look to occur
Monday night into Wednesday night, but sub freezing temperatures
are likely to stick around into next weekend as well. Northern
panhandle will be watched as many locations will be approaching
their criteria for cold weather advisories or extreme cold
warnings (especially the haines and Klondike Highways) early to
mid week.

In addition to the cold, strong outflow winds are also expected
with many northern panhandle channels seeing gale force outflow
through most of the week. A strong 1035 mb high in the Yukon is
the main driver of that outflow and it will just persist and
strengthen to 1045 mb by late next week. Expect gusty winds out of
many of the outflow areas in the northern panhandle to start
with, but expect outflow out of areas farther south through the
week as the Yukon high spreads into northern British Columbia by
late week. With these winds and the cold air that it is bringing,
a few secondary effects will be noticeable. First, wind chills
will be rather frigid reaching into the negative teens and
possibly colder in the north most of the week. Second, is that
freezing spray will become a more widespread problem for many
marine areas in the inner channels and along the NE gulf coast.
The freezing spray could become heavy at times in Lynn Canal, Near
Taku Inlet, and northern parts of Glacier Bay throughout the
week.

Otherwise, most of the panhandle will be dry through the mid and
long range except for possibly the south. A series of lows will be
moving into the BC coast and could send some of their precip into
the southern panhandle throughout the week. Given how cold the
atmosphere is expected to be the precip, when it does fall, will
mostly be in the form of snow. Highest accumulations possible
early Tuesday, but additional accumulations will likely be low for
the mid week period. There is the possibility of a another snow
event for the south next Friday into Saturday with a couple inches
of accumulation possible but storm track is uncertain at this time
for that system.

&&

.AVIATION...Predominately IFR flying conditions continue north of
Juneau as snow continues across the area. This snow is mainly
bringing reduced visibilities to below 2 SM and times of
visibilities AoB 1/2 SM. Ceilings across the panhandle remain
around 1500 to 2500ft as precipitation continues across the area.
Areas around Yakutat and Skagway will be the first places to see
improving conditions as precipitation diminishes.

Otherwise, the central and southern panhandle will continue to see
MVFR conditions due moderate to heavy rain over the area. The
rain/snow line will continue to move south tonight into Sunday
eventually bringing a wintry mix and snow to the central and
southern panhandle. As these areas start to see snow, visibilities
will quickly be reduced to below 2 SM.

Along with this precipitation, winds have begun to increase and will
continue to increase, especially for the northern panhandle. By late
Sunday morning, Skagway will begin to see sustained winds around 30
kts with gusts up to 45 kts. Elsewhere, winds becoming 10 to 15 kts
with gusts 20 to 25 kts. These stronger winds continue well into
next week with strong northerly outflow.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): A low pressure continues to sit
in the western Gulf this afternoon bringing southerly fresh to
strong breezes to the outer coast and offshore waters. These
conditions are expected to persist while near gale to gales are
expected to develop for those areas that are favored by outflow
winds. In particular, near Cape Spencer and Yakutat Bay could see
near gales to gales. As the low remains over the western Gulf, winds
will continue but could see some slowing for areas south of Cape
Edgecumbe with speeds around fresh to strong breezes. To the north,
the near gales to gales continue going into Monday and Tuesday for
the outflow winds. With the low remaining in the Gulf, wave heights
are expected to remain elevated with 10-15 ft seas and a SW swell
component.

Inside (Inner Channels): The Arctic boundary continues to push
southward this afternoon with the boundary around Taku Inlet for the
Stephens Passage area and somewhere between Point Couverden and
Tenakee Springs. As the boundary continues its trek southward, winds
will continue to shift to north while wind speeds are expected to
increase for the Lynn Canal area. To the south, winds are expected
to remain out of the south before switching to either more of a
northerly or easterly wind as the pressure gradient increases.
Headed into the start of the week, a low is expected to move across
the southern panhandle which should allow for winds to diminish for
the southern Inner Channels. Meanwhile, winds and cold temperatures
across the northern Inner Channels will likely see an increasing
potential for freezing spray, especially as the air temperature
continues to drop with the Arctic air mass.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 6 AM AKST Sunday for AKZ317.
     Winter Storm Warning until 3 PM AKST Sunday for AKZ318-319.
     Cold Weather Advisory from 3 PM Sunday to 6 PM AKST Monday for
     AKZ318.
     Extreme Cold Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon
     for AKZ318.
     Winter Storm Warning until midnight AKST Sunday night for AKZ320-
     321-325.
     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight AKST Sunday night for
     AKZ322.
     Winter Storm Watch from Monday afternoon through late Monday
     night for AKZ326-329.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM Sunday to 6 AM AKST Monday for
     AKZ327.
     Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM Sunday to 9 PM AKST Monday for
     AKZ331.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ011-012-053-644-651-652-664-671-672.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ013-021-022-031>036-641>643-661>663.

&&

$$

UPDATE...EAB
SHORT TERM...Contino
LONG TERM...EAL
AVIATION...EAB
MARINE...SF

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