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FXAK67 PAJK 180550 AAA
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
950 PM AKDT Fri Oct 17 2025

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION FORECAST...

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...For the late evening forecast release, we added
some periods of IFR to MVFR CIGS in scattered to numerous showers
passing across the Panhandle. Models have a front moving into the
southern areas tomorrow morning associated with an area of low
pressure. The pressure gradient will likely increase across the
southern zones including Ketchikan through early morning resulting
in some low level wind shear starting around 10Z lasting into late
morning. Periods of passing showers for most everywhere tonight
tapering off by afternoon most areas ovedr the northern half of
the panhandle with rain persisting into late tomorrow afternoon
down south closer to the frontal boundary where MVFR likely to
persist. /JG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 305 PM AKDT Fri Oct 17 2025

SHORT TERM...Showers continue this afternoon across the panhandle
while the low that has been bringing showers to the area continue
to weaken near Prince William Sound. These showers are expected
to dissipate as the low continues to weaken before merging with
the next low moving into the Gulf later this and into the morning
hours tomorrow. This low is expected to bring gale force winds to
the outer coast as well as another surge of moisture. Rainfall
amounts from this low will be around 1 inch for the southern
panhandle with potentially between 1- 1.5 inches around Ketchikan.
Farther north, rainfall amounts from around Sitka northward to
the Icy Strait corridor including Juneau could see half an inch to
an inch of rain. North of Juneau, rainfall amounts are expected
to be less than half an inch. Heading into Sunday, the low is then
expected to dive south as high pressure returns to the area.

LONG TERM.../Sunday through Tuesday/...The low that was
previously impacting the SE gulf & southern panhandle will
continue to weaken & push away from the region, coming ashore
south of Haida Gwaii, diminishing winds over the SE gulf to only
as high as around 15 to 20 kt into Sunday evening. After a decent
break in the rain & wind between weather systems on Sunday,
another borderline gale force low pressure system moves in for
Sunday night through the early portion of next week, which will
bring enhanced wind & seas & mainly light to moderate rainfall for
the panhandle with heavy rain rates possible for areas in the
southern panhandle on Monday, especially areas at higher
elevations as they will be experiencing topographic enhancement of
the precipitation. The low will come ashore, moving from SW to NE
through the central & northern panhandle while weakening late
Monday night into Tuesday. Additionally, for Sunday night & into
Monday & also Tuesday, some light snow accumulations are possible,
primarily at the higher elevations along the Klondike Highway &
potentially some lighter accumulations along the Haines Highway
near the border as snow levels will be low enough & low SFC
temperatures will be cold enough.

AVIATION...CIGs are fighting to stay above 3000 ft this Friday
afternoon as scattered showers continue to push onshore. These
short showers are bringing light to moderate rain rates and gusty
winds as they pass over, lowering CIGs and VIS to MVFR conditions
periodically. As flow continues to push northeast over the
panhandle, the small pockets of showers are beginning to weaken
and allow for more breaks in the cloud deck to appear. There is
still a chance to see some isolated thunderstorms through the rest
of the day, though confidence continues to weaken. LLWS has
diminished throughout the panhandle, but will pick back up as the
next low pressure system approaches.

The next system jumping into the southeastern gulf will send a
gale force front N to NE through the panhandle overnight Friday
and through Saturday. At the peak of the front, the southern
panhandle can expect gusty winds to 35 kts with moderate rain
rates and LLWS between 30 to 40 kts, while the northern panhandle
will stay more calm with light rain, winds below 10 kts, and LLWS
up to 25 kts. MVFR conditions will stick around through most of
the day Saturday before improving as the system dissipates over
the central panhandle, with areas of the northern panhandle seeing
CIGs rise to VFR earlier in the morning.

MARINE...Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Onshore flow
continues for the area with moderate to fresh breezes. Waves this
afternoon continue to remain high as SW swell continues to bring
significant wave heights up. These waves are expected to diminish
as the swell height starts to decrease and swell direction starts
to shift from WSW to S as the next gale force low approaches the
area. This low is expected to bring easterly and northerly gale
force winds to the outer coast as it approaches from the south and
west. It is expected to linger briefly off the coast of Prince of
Wales and Baranof Islands through Saturday before diving back to
the south late Saturday. High pressure is then expected to return
to the Gulf for Sunday before the next low moves into the area for
late Sunday night into Monday.

Inside (Inner Channels): Winds across the Inner Channels continue
to range between gentle to fresh breezes this afternoon. These
winds are expected to continue through the evening before the next
low approaches from the south. This low will bring gale force
winds to Clarence Strait while strong breezes to near gales are
expected for the rest of the Inner Channels. This low is expected
to work part way up the panhandle before diving back to the south
bringing high pressure and northerly winds to the Inner Channels
for the weekend.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036-641-642-661>664.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-033>035-053-643-644-651-
     652-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...JLC
AVIATION...ZTK
MARINE...SF

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