566
FXAK67 PAJK 180641
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
941 PM AKST Mon Nov 17 2025

.UPDATE...Pulled the trigger on a winter storm watch for the
Haines Highway from Klukwan area to the border for this Wednesday
system. Run to run consistency of models seem to place the trough
a bit further north, bringing additional moisture into the north.
With the low to the south and a negative trough axis, a trowal is
expected to develop somewhere along the Haines Highway. The
greatest uncertainty is where the band of heaviest precipitation
will set up. If it sets up around the upper elevations of Haines
Highway, snow melt cooling from very heavy rates could bring rates
exceeding 1 inch per hour. If the band sets up further south near
Haines, then precipitation will likely fall as rain to rain/snow
mix with little accumulation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...As of 1400 Monday afternoon a near-gale force front
is making landfall along the Chichagof and Baranof coast.
Anticipate gusty 25 to 35 mph winds out of the south and east to
continue or build this late afternoon across the Panhandle as the
front moves over the region, with some snow impacts for Haines and
Klondike Highways. As of this writing light snow is ongoing in
the north, with minimal impacts for Haines Highway. Klondike is
seeing more snow given the elevation, but current forecast remains
confident that 24 hour totals from Monday into Tuesday morning
remain near 4 to 6 inches for the pass; heaviest snow before 12 AM
Tuesday. Winds and rain decrease Tuesday before a more prominent
system arrives Wednesday. More info below.

.LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Saturday/...An active pattern
continues across southeast Alaska through the rest of the week with
a complex scenario in the books for Wednesday into Thursday. The
impactful change in the long term forecast is the shift in model
guidance to spin up a much more vigorous triple point low or
embedded trough in the southeast gulf ahead of the parent low. The
primary low is still expected to push into the southern gulf by
Wednesday afternoon, however this extra feature will bring
enhanced winds to the southern panhandle and coastal waters by
early Wednesday morning, spreading northward with widespread
gales. Depending on when and where this embedded feature develops,
it could get a jumpstart from the backside of an upper level
ridge over the panhandle just ahead of the parent low at the
surface. Due to this uncertainty in strength and the range of
potential impacts, a high wind watch has been issued for the
southern panhandle including Ketchikan, Metlakatla, and Prince of
Wales Island. For Prince of Wales Island, the southern coast is
the area where the highest winds are expected to occur. As of this
forecast issuance, the timing of the highest winds with gusts up
to 60 mph out of the southeast would be between 9am and 3 pm
Wednesday.

Regardless of track, strong winds will accompany this feature as it
swings northward through the panhandle Wednesday, along with
moderate to locally heavy precipitation. The heaviest
precipitation is still expected to be limited to south of
Frederick Sound. However, a more northward track of this embedded
trough could bring moderate moisture further north, leading to
higher snowfall for the Haines and Klondike Highways, which are
expected to remain cold enough to maintain primarily snow along
higher elevations. Elsewhere, temperatures in the low levels are
expected to remain warm enough for cold rain, with some snow
potentially mixing in with heavier rates along the Icy Strait
corridor and for Haines and Skagway at sea level. This will likely
be dependent upon how long winds in Lynn Canal stay northerly
ahead of the arrival of precipitation. Overall high temperatures
will continue to range from the upper 40s in the south to the low
40s in the north. Extensive cloud cover and persistent
precipitation will moderate temperatures in the northern
panhandle.

Fresh on the heels of this, another system will form south of the
Alaska Peninsula and push a gale force front across the gulf
towards the panhandle Thursday night into Friday, transitioning
the panhandle to predominantly onshore southwesterly flow Friday
into Saturday. This front is expected to bring gale force winds
to the gulf waters along with widespread moderate to heavy
precipitation to a majority of the panhandle. The heaviest
precipitation is expected along outer coastal communities, with 24
hour totals from Thursday afternoon to Friday afternoon 1.5 to
2.5 inches, and locally higher amounts at higher elevations and
westward facing slopes. For communities in the inner channels,
storm totals look to be closer to 0.75 inches to 1.5 inches. As
with earlier in the week, a lack of a significant cold continental
airmass in the inner channels will likely limit any snow
potential for communities at sea level. Haines and Skagway cannot
be ruled out, especially higher elevations of the Chilkat
Peninsula. Also, the track of the low on Wednesday into Thursday
could serve to prime the northern inner channels for snow if it
induces a northerly gradient for long enough. Stay tuned for
forecast updates as the week progresses.

Overall a very dynamic setup with potential for higher land and
marine impacts if this triple point low develops and tracks just
off of the outer coast. Stay tuned for the latest forecast updates
as we head into midweek.

&&

.AVIATION.../Through Tuesday evening/...
Generally MVFR flight conditions across SE AK through the period
with onshore flow behind the frontal passage this evening. Showers
continue across the north as another surface trough pushes
ashore, helping keep MVFR VIS and CIGs. Across the south, IFR VIS
and CIGs could develop, especially for PAKT and PAPG, as a bit of
clearing and light winds behind the front this evening could lead
to patchy fog/low stratus development. Elevated winds will remain
across the northern panhandle, generally 10-20kt with gusts
25-30kts. Slightly higher winds 25G35kts at PAGY tonight. For PAYA
and the southern panhandle, lighter winds less than 10kts
expected. For Tuesday evening, increasing southerly flow aloft
ahead of the next low will lead to LLWS development across the
southern panhandle and along the coast, spreading across the rest
of panhandle tomorrow night.

&&

.MARINE...Outside (Gulf/Coastal waters):Monday afternoon a near-
gale force front is moving into the coast. Seas reached a minimum
of 6 to 8 ft at 11 seconds from the WSW this morning, with a
combination of southeasterly seas and westerly swell bringing
confused seas of 10 to 13 ft as the front moves through this
afternoon. By Monday evening westerly swell becomes more prominent
for the majority of the coast, focused at 10-13 ft near 12
seconds from the WSW. One item of concern is a secondary low
moving into the northern coast Monday night, bringing another
round of strong breeze to near gale force conditions from Yakutat
toward the Fairweather grounds as the parent low moves into
Yakutat Bay into Tuesday morning. Winds increase to gales early
Wednesday morning, more info below.

Wednesdays 970 mb low continues to trend stronger, with
southerly strong-gales likely for much of the coast. The
published forecast has matched this trend, with southeasterly
seas near 23 to 27 ft likely with the associated fetch duration
and wind strength. There is a chance to see storm force winds
Wednesday morning along the outer coast. Something to watch
carefully over the next 24 hours.

Inside (Inner Channels):
Monday morning winds are southerly through the inner channels in
response a near-gale force front moving northeast toward the
coast. Expect the front to push over the Panhandle through the
afternoon with winds building to fresh to strong breezes for most
of the inner channels. Lynn Canal will likely see near-gale force
conditions, with a brief period of gales as the front moves over
this evening. Generally, winds decrease overnight Monday,
remaining below 25 knots for Tuesday. A storm force low moves into
the coast Wednesday bringing gale force winds to much of the
central and southern inner channels. A healthy fetch of strong-
gale force winds in Queen Charlotte Sound/Hecate Strait will drive
stout southeasterly seas of 12 to perhaps 18 ft into southern
Clarence.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight AKST tonight for AKZ318.
     Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for AKZ319.
     High Wind Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday evening
     for AKZ328-330-332.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-
     671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM...STJ
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...AP
UPDATE...NC

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