799
FXAK67 PAJK 291433
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
633 AM AKDT Mon Sep 29 2025

.SHORT TERM...
Key Points:
 - The low in the gulf continues to weaken and will move south
   starting today.
 - A front will push south to north over the panhandle bringing
   showers over the area.

Details: A low pressure system has continued to linger in the gulf
as it moves south. An associated front will begin to move from south
to north over the panhandle starting this morning. This front will
bring showers over the panhandle with isolated times of moderate to
heavy precipitation, especially over the southern panhandle. There
is around a 40% chance of isolated areas in Prince of Wales Island,
Ketchikan, and Annette areas to see 0.1 to 0.15 inch per hour rain
rates. Rain rates will begin to diminish this afternoon as the
front moves north. At this time the low will begin to diminish and
weaken. Late Monday into Tuesday morning, another low moves into
the southern gulf slightly increasing precipitation chances in the
southern panhandle for a short period of time. Otherwise, an
overall drying trend will then begin Tuesday as a ridge builds
over the over the gulf.

.LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Friday/...
Key Messages:
- Lingering precip moves out through Tuesday
- Skies clear out into Wednesday
- Next system moves in from the northwest Thursday

Details: The weakening low pressure system in the gulf will have
moved south of the panhandle by Tuesday morning, taking
precipitation and cloud cover with it. Skies will start clearing
from the northwest to the southeast overnight, lingering over the
southernmost areas of the panhandle until Wednesday. Light showers
will be possible for those areas, with the southeasterly flow
still directing remaining moisture into the southern panhandle as
the low continues to move south. High pressure will start building
over interior Alaska and the Yukon Territory through this time,
strengthening a ridge building over the panhandle. By Wednesday,
precipitation and cloud cover will have largely moved out of the
panhandle allowing for partly cloudy to mostly sunny conditions to
prevail. Clouds begin to move back in proceeding another system
jumping into the northern gulf early Thursday morning. An area of
deep upper level shortwave troughing helps to steer a disorganized
low into the northern outer coast through Thursday, bringing
light rain amounts back into the panhandle Thursday afternoon into
Friday. There is still a bit of spread on the exact timing and
intensity of this next system, though it is currently looking to
only bring around an inch or less to a majority of the panhandle.
The exception to this will be Yakutat, looking to receive between
1 and 2 inches as the front reaches them first. Precipitation
looks to continue through the longer term, though there may be a
few short breaks between systems.

As ridging develops Tuesday, winds will turn offshore and weaken
for a majority of the inner channels. A tightening N/S pressure
gradient north of the panhandle begins to tighten with this
ridging, increasing outflow winds down Lynn Canal into Wednesday.
Southerly flow associated with the system moving in Thursday will
turn flow back onshore by the afternoon. Highs will be in the 50s,
increasing slightly for Wednesday. The southern panhandle will
most likely breach the 60s with extra heating from the sun. Lows
will be in the 40s, with select areas of the panhandle dipping
into the high 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...Until 12Z Tuesday/...As far as CIGs & VISs are
concerned VFR conditions are expected with dips into the MVFR
flight category as rain & lower ceilings push in from the
southwest from a weakening front pushing northward today & then
pulling away from the area tonight, & a weakening parent area of
low pressure located over the southern Gulf that is pushing to the
southeast away from the area through the entire 24-hour TAF period.
The precipitation & lowered conditions will stick around the
longest for southern Panhandle TAF sites as the weakening area of
low pressure & associated front pull away from the region to the
south & leave the region late tonight into tomorrow morning. PASI
has some LLWS centered up at around 2 kft of about 35 kt out of a
southeasterly direction this morning into the afternoon
associated with the front. As far as SFC winds are concerned, they
generally look to remain around 10 kt or less through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Inside Waters: Winds across the inner channels continue to decrease
as the low pressure system moves southward and diminishes. For this
morning, the highest wind speeds are across the northern inner
channels, specifically near Point Couverden in Icy Strait and
Southern Lynn. Rocky Island has been around 25 kts all night, but is
expected to start to see a diminishing trend late this morning into
this afternoon. A diminishing trend is also expected across other
inside channels as the low diminishes throughout today. Another low
moves into the southern gulf tonight into Tuesday morning. At that
time, Chatham and Clarence Strait will see an increase in winds to
around 15 to 20 kts. This low does not stay in the gulf for very
long as a ridge builds Tuesday into Wednesday.

Outside Waters: The northern Gulf will continue to see a diminishing
trend in winds as the low moves south. Seas will also gradually
subside through Monday. Moderate to fresh breezes of 20 to 25 kts
will redevelop in the southeastern gulf waters Monday night as a low
moves into the southern gulf. The strongest winds will be to the
west of Haida Gwaii. Fresh to strong breezes will continue along the
eastern gulf Tuesday as a ridge develops. As the ridge develops over
the gulf, winds will become northerly to northwesterly. As the ridge
becomes more prominent, Tuesday into Wednesday, seas will build to 5
to 7 ft along the northeast gulf and 8 to 12 ft in the southeast
gulf.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641>644-661>664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM...ZTK
AVIATION...JLC
MARINE...EAB

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