904
FXAK67 PAJK 080653
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
953 PM AKST Fri Nov 7 2025

.UPDATE...Update to include 6z TAF issuance and extended long term
discussion...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- A very active weekend in SE AK with forecasted heavy rain across
  most of the panhandle, high wind gusts in the southern
  panhandle, and heavy snow in the northern panhandle.

- Low pressure sliding north will spread moderate to heavy precip,
  mostly rain, to SE AK beginning in the south Saturday afternoon
  and lasting through Sunday afternoon.

- As the low enters the southern gulf, high wind gusts upwards of
  60 mph, or higher, will spread into the southern panhandle.
  Elevated wind gusts around 30 to 50 mph possible for the rest of
  the panhandle as well as the low moves north Saturday night.

- Heavy snow is possible in the far northern panhandle ahead of
  the low. But this part of the forecast has high uncertainty.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Another front extending from a gale force low in
the northwest gulf is currently swinging through SEAK and will
bring moderate showers tonight, diminishing towards daybreak.
Another round of light snow is expected near White Pass and upper
Haines Highway with around 1 to 2 inches possible. Gusty southerly
to westerly winds along and behind the front, mainly for the
inner channels, will diminish across the south this evening and
across the north overnight. Winds will increase across the south
by around daybreak ahead this weekend`s very impactful storm.

.LONG TERM.../Saturday and Sunday/...This weekend`s snowfall
event has high potential to be a heavy snow maker to the higher
elevations of the Klondike, but for the Haines Highway there is
still some uncertainty. Even higher uncertainty at sea level in
Skagway and Haines.

A low pressure system is forecast to track north through the
eastern gulf through Saturday night. The low will then move
northeast just south of Cross Sound and move inland towards Canada
just north of Juneau. That being said, there is some evidence
that the low could track west and stay in the gulf through Sunday
or turn towards Canada and track south of Juneau on Sunday. These
other tracks would greatly affect the final snowfall amounts but
for now, the following amounts are based on the first track.

Another variable is the precipitation type forecast. As this low
moves north, the front side of the low will have northerly flow,
that would usher in cooler air and support snow. But as the low
tracks north, there will be a southerly push of wind that would
switch the snow to rain. The question is whether or not the
southerly push makes it that far north. There is more evidence in
the models that the switch to rain would happen because of the
southerly push but history and pattern recognition would say snow
would last into Sunday afternoon. So the precip type forecast will
be a challenge.

For Skagway and Klondike highway, depending on the temperature
profile and how much moisture can flow into the area, snowfall
amounts could be as high as 14 to 17 inches, but numbers like that
are on the high end with the lowest confidence. The more likely
amount for the Klondike highway is around 10 to 13 inches. If the
southerly push makes it to Skagway faster than expected, total
snowfall amounts for Skagway would be lower than the 1 to 3 inches
currently forecasted for Skagway.

For Haines and the Haines Highway, ahead of this low, northerly
flow would pull cooler air into the area, which would support
snow. And as the low tracks into Canada, we would expect winds to
stay out of the west, allowing for cooler air to continue to get
pulled in and keep the chances for snow in the forecast. But the
southerly push of wind could usher in warmer air that would switch
the snow to rain. So low confidence on the precip type forecast
for now. But if the temperature profile can stay cold enough to
support snow, heavy snow would be likely late Saturday night into
Sunday morning. Total snowfall amounts for the Haines Highway is
around 6 to 8 inches with 2 to 4 inches for areas closer to sea
level.

/ Tuesday night to Friday / Weakening low over the Northeast gulf
pocket with showers rotating into the panhandle for Wednesday.
Low lingers over the northern gulf to Wednesday morning before
falling apart. A wave from the eastern Pacific moves north to
Haida Gwaii, and may graze the southern panhandle. A weak ridge
across the central gulf towards the panhandle offers some
protection from the storm track out of the south and diverts into
British Columbia. The feature seems to be persistant trying to
hang on over the gulf on Thursday. Along a general long wave
trough over the eastern gulf this will lead to weak onshore flow
but the confused flow south of Alaska Peninsula/Kodiak Island are
is steering the flow pattern away, so limiting the possibility of
significant system through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...The previous front has moved northeast out of the
panhandle and scattered showers are filtering through in the
wake. This shower development is very light and patchy, allowing
much of the panhandle to see broken skies and avoid most of the
rain. A majority of TAF sites are comfortably VFR with CIGs AoA
4000 ft, though the occasional passing shower may bring CIGs down
to AoB 3000 ft for a short period. These clearing VFR conditions
are expected to persist overnight, with winds calming down
everywhere except Skagway and Haines. The next system continues to
push toward the panhandle from the south, with high overcast CIGs
beginning to move in along the southern panhandle overnight into
Saturday. Rain will reach the southern panhandle through Saturday
morning, with gusts to 20 kt and LLWS around 30 kt. As the front
continues to spread north through the panhandle, CIGs will keep
dropping to MVFR with VIS between 4 and 6 SM and gusts increasing
past 30 kt. LLWS will also continue to increase to near 50 kt by
the end of the 24 hour period. Conditions will continue to drop
through Saturday night and into Sunday, with periods of IFR VIS
and heavy rain.

&&

.MARINE...Conditions will rapidly deteriorate on Saturday as a
storm force low advances up from the south, bringing with it a
strong surge of winds and elevated wave heights which will last
through most of the weekend. A gale force front arriving on Monday
will bring with it more winds and elevated seas.

Outside Waters: After a relative respite Friday night, with
prevailing S flow of 15 to 20 kt and wave heights of 8-12 feet,
conditions deteriorate beginning Saturday as a storm force low
moves in from the south. Winds veer out of the E North of the low,
reaching 35 kt through the day, while to the low`s east,
sustained winds of 40 to 45 kt are expected, with storm force
winds (50 kt) for Hecate Strait and the Dixon Entrance Saturday
night. As the low continues moving north, anticipate seas rising
up to around 25 ft, and between 15 and 10 feet for areas south of
Yakutat Bay. Seas then diminish to around 10 to 15 feet by late
Sunday, before increasing on Monday and Tuesday as first a front
sweeps through the gulf, and then a a low moves through the Gulf
on Tuesday.

Inside Waters: S winds overnight flip out of the N as a low moves
up from the South and approaches the panhandle on Saturday. As
the low lifts northward, 20-25 kt northerly winds are expected for
areas north of the low through the daytime and overnight hours,
while southerly winds of 25-35 kt are expected for areas E and S
of the low as the system moves North. Clarence Strait in
particular could see winds beyond even this, with speeds reaching
storm force (50 kt) Saturday night). The northern panhandle will
hold on to N winds the longest, with Lynn Canal not becoming S
until Sunday afternoon or evening. As the low departs through the
latter half of Sunday, expect wind speeds to begin to diminish
down to 15 to 20 kt, before broadly strengthening again on Monday
as a front moves in from the W. Elevated seas are expected through
this time, with the highest seas the latter half of Saturday
through Sunday afternoon.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday
     afternoon for AKZ318.
     Winter Storm Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday
     afternoon for AKZ319.
     Flood Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon for
     AKZ326-328>330-332.
     High Wind Warning from 3 PM Saturday to 9 AM AKST Sunday for
     AKZ328-332.
     High Wind Warning from 6 PM Saturday to 9 AM AKST Sunday for
     AKZ330.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036-641-642-661-662.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-035-053-643-644-651-652-663-
     664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...GJS/Bezenek
AVIATION...ZTK
MARINE...GFS

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