401
FXAK67 PAJK 150050
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
350 PM AKST Fri Nov 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:


- Showers will diminish ahead of the next frontal passage that
  will bring another round of rain and snow and wind later today
  into tomorrow.

- Weak overrunning situation for the northern Lynn Canal area
  especially around Haines area with continues light north outflow
  and not expecting southerly flow to the Haines area until Sat
  morning 8 to noon time frame. Issue will amount of moisture
  transfer for north. Have kept snowfall totals under advisory
  levels though would not be surprised if my 2-3 inch forecast was
  on the low end.

- Brief break possible Sunday as ridging builds over the Gulf of
  Alaska.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../ through Saturday night / Frontal band arcing
across the gulf from surface low presently south of Kodiak
Island, is lifting into the southwest portion of the panhandle
this afternoon and evening and will continue to the north central
panhandle by Saturday morning and then reaching the northern
panhandle in the morning/midday time frame. North Central may
start as rain or rain snow mix with minor accumulations.

Along Highways out of Haines and Skagway expect Snow tonight and
Saturday morning before lower elevations mix or change to rain.
Have 2 to 3 inches in the forecast now, however these overrunning
situations however these overrunning situations can be hard to
forecast accurately.

With the frontal passage there will be some wind bumps and
gustiness up to 35 mph possible however expect most areas to stay
on the lower speeds.


.LONG TERM.../Sunday through Wednesday/...Minimal changes
to the Sunday forecast as the low moves southeast and ridging
begins to develop over the Gulf and panhandle. This will still
bring a period of lower PoPs, with some clearing in the cloud
cover. The drier weather expected to last longer for the central
and southern panhandle into early Monday morning, while some
showers linger over the NE Gulf coast and northern panhandle,
before the next front begins to move in from the west Monday
morning. The winds during this period will remain lighter across
the panhandle, and stay more northerly bringing some cooler
temperatures particularly for Sunday night, dropping minimum
temperatures down to around freezing for much of the northern
panhandle and areas further from the coast.

The forecast remains largely the same for the front moving
through Monday into Tuesday, with the biggest change in the
forecast being in the precipitation types and amount of snow on
the highways. Model guidance has been trending more warm at the
surface, with 850 mb temperatures staying around -4 to -5C and
surface max temperatures nudging up to the high 30s to low 40s
over the central and northern panhandle as onshore flow returns to
the panhandle Monday with this next system. Snow levels are also
increasing this week, from 500 to 600 ft Monday morning further
north and far from the outer coastline, to over 1000 ft by Tuesday
morning across even the northern panhandle. This warmer air
brought in by this system and higher snow levels and wet bulb
temperatures correspond to more rain being expected as the
precipitation type Tuesday and Wednesday with the exception of the
highways. Monday morning there will be possible mixing Icy Strait
corridor northward due to the lower temperatures from overnight
as the moisture moves in, but transitioning to rain during the
morning to midday.

The greatest amount of QPF is expected along the NE Gulf coast
for this system, with around 1 inch in 24 hours Monday and
expecting another 0.5 to 1 inch Tuesday and Wednesday as
precipitation continues to move into the panhandle. The rest of
the panhandle should see amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inches per 24
hours as rain lingers even after the front moves through, and as
another wave moves through Tuesday night into Wednesday. Overall
this system will bring between 1.5 and 3 inches of snow to the
Haines Highway and between 3 and 5 inches of snow to the Klondike
Highway in 48 hours. The winds for this system remain largely the
same in the forecast, aside from some increases to 15 to 20 kts
Wednesday across the inner channels as the second wave moves
through. Otherwise, no other wind impacts across the inland areas.

&&

.AVIATION.../Until 00Z Sunday/...Prevailing MVFR conditions have
taken over as the front begins to move up through the southern
panhandle. Some areas in the central panhandle are still seeing
VFR conditions with CIGs AoA 3000 ft, though conditions will
deteriorate as the front arrives. The front is accompanied by
light rain with lowered VIS between 5 and 6 SM, with the worst
conditions of 2 to 4 SM VIS and CIGs AoB 2000 ft looking to last
around 6 hours. The northern panhandle is currently still seeing
VFR conditions with some breaks in the clouds, though this is
forecast to drop down to MVFR overnight. In Haines and Skagway,
precipitation is expected to be predominantly snow with periods of
a rain/snow mix, which will lower VIS to 2 SM or less. Juneau is
somewhat of an exception to all of this, as they`ve been
experiencing lower conditions all day and will continue to have
lowered VIS AoB 4 SM with CIGs AoB 1000 ft overnight and into
Saturday morning. Lowered MVFR conditions are expected to remain
in the forecast through the 24 hour period, lifting through
Saturday afternoon. Southeasterly LLWS around 30 to 35 kts with
surface gusts up to 20 kts for southern regions is anticipated as
the front pushes over from the southwest, though it is only
expected to stick around for the next few hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside waters: As the front moves north into the area tonight,
southeasterly winds will swing to the southwest and will be around
20 to to 30 knots. As the low center travels through Saturday,
the winds on the south side will be strongest at around 15 to 20
knots. Some higher wind speeds up to 25 kts are possible.

Lighter westerly winds are likely Sunday, at around 5 to 15
knots.

Inner Channels: As the front travels through the area late
tonight into tomorrow, we would expect southerly winds to
increase. But with the source low so far away, winds may only pick
up to around 15 to 20 knots. Stronger winds, up to 20 to 30 kts,
likely for Clarence Strait. Winds up to 25 knots possible for
Stephens Passage.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-036-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-
     671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bezenek
LONG TERM...Contino
AVIATION...ZTK
MARINE...Bezenek

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