573
FXAK67 PAJK 140559 AAA
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
859 PM AKST Thu Nov 13 2025

.UPDATE...Aviation section updated for 6z taf issuance.

&&

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

-Snow and mixed snow/rain showers training along the northeast
  gulf coast or just off shore. Keeping a close watch on the
  Yakutat area. If they train over the top of Yakutat proper a few
  overnight ( 2 to 4 possibly ) could fall.

- Occluded front from the Bering Sea parent low to move into the
  panhandle area late Friday to Saturday. This will spread the
  next band of organized precipitation into region Saturday.

- Brief break possible Sunday as ridging builds over the Gulf of
  Alaska.

SHORT TERM... / Through Friday night / Weakening surface low over
the northeast gulf, is spreading showers into the panhandle and
along the coastline of the northeast gulf coast. Temperatures in
the right range to increase the forecast challenge, as a result
lots of areas of the northern panhandle has rain and snow in the
forecast. Do expect a slow warming trend into Saturday before the
band lifts into the panhandle late Friday night and Saturday. Over
the Northeast gulf coast the showers are tracking along or just
onshore, and based on Satellite imagery. Put 1 inch or so in the
Yakutat area, but if the showers train of the over the area expect
accumulation numbers to bet two to three times as much. Remainder
of the panhandle has rain and possibly snow showers into Friday,
before the next trough lifts in by Saturday.

LONG TERM.../Saturday through Tuesday/...Minimal changes have
been made to the long term, with minor tweaks focusing around
inner channel winds. A front associated with a surface level low
in the western gulf will sweep northeast Friday night, passing
over the panhandle Saturday and bringing around half an inch of
rain in 24 hours. The northern interior panhandle will see this
rain transition to more of a rain/snow mix overnight, with higher
elevated areas seeing fully snow into midday Saturday. 24 hour
snow accumulations for highest elevations are still sitting around
3 inches, with areas closer to sea level seeing around an inch or
less. After the front pushes through going into Saturday
afternoon, developing showers in the wake will keep light rain in
the forecast for the rest of Saturday, trickling out overnight.
Breaks in the clouds will start to appear Sunday morning, with a
majority of the panhandle potentially able to see sun peaking
through throughout Sunday.

The next system over the eastern Aleutians is expected to send a
front into the panhandle through midday Monday, bringing rain
through the rest of the day and Tuesday. Through the entirety of
this system, around an inch of rain is expected, with the outer
coast seeing between an inch and an inch and a half. With colder
temperatures persisting in the northern interior panhandle, many
areas of the northern panhandle will likely see a rain/snow mix
for this time, with the Klondike Highway potentially seeing up to
6 inches of snow with this system.

Winds won`t be much of an issue through the period, with 20 to 30
kts in the gulf decreasing to 5 to 10 kts between systems. Inner
channel winds look to increase to around 20 kts up Lynn Canal and
out of Icy Strait as the pressure gradient tightens early next
week. High temperatures are sitting at the high 30s for the
northern interior panhandle and increasing to the low 40s as you
move south. The southern panhandle will see highs slightly
increase as each front moves through, though will stay in the high
40s. Low temperatures won`t be too much lower than the highs,
though they look to drop to around freezing early next week.

AVIATION.../through 06z Saturday/ Showers are the main weather
feature this evening for aviation concerns. Most of the precip has
been in the northern 2/3rds of the panhandle and has been seen as
a rain/snow mix in many areas. Even with the precip in the form of
snow in the north, vis and ceilings are still VFR or MVFR with
the lowest ceilings at Gustavus with 1400 ft. There will be some
shifting of where areas of precip occur over the next 24 hours
with the southern panhandle becoming more favored for
precipitation by Friday morning. That will also bring in some
lower conditions with ceilings down to 1500 ft at times for the
south. As for wind, not much of it this evening either at sea
level or aloft. However, the southern panhandle will be getting
somewhat breezy starting late tonight into tomorrow with winds
aloft increasing to 30 to 35 kt at 2000 ft. This may lead to some
low level speed shear for southern airports into Friday evening. A
more organized frontal band starts moving across the panhandle
Friday night into Saturday that may bring some lower conditions
and some winds to the area.

MARINE...
Outside waters: Hazards limited to Combined Seas at 8 feet or
more. They are subsiding off of Prince of Wales Island to about 6
feet but by Friday afternoon 8 to 10 ft spreading eastward across
the gulf to the southeaster gulf again, and then the full eastern
half of the gulf by Saturday. Sustained winds anticipated to be
under 20 kt.

Inner Channels:
Lighter winds speeds of 10 to 15 kt across the inner waters
generally. Visibility in patchy fog and rain possible but overall
limited hazards for mariners.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-036-641-661.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bezenek
LONG TERM...ZTK
AVIATION...EAL
MARINE...Bezenek

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau