478
FXAK67 PAJK 161747
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
847 AM AKST Sun Nov 16 2025

.UPDATE...As of the 18z TAF issuance, sunrise has brought with it
the development of low lying stratus decks and patchy fog across
parts of the panhandle. This stratus and fog will be short lived,
with low level cloud cover largely burning away, and VFR
conditions expected through the day for most locations. Winds will
stay fairly light, and other than the stratus that briefly formed
in the morning, CIGS will be at or above 5k feet. Shower activity
begins to move in from the W late Sunday night as a weak system
approaches. The one exception to this will be Yakutat, where MVFR
conditions and chances of showers remain throughout the time
period as a weak wave passes through.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 602 AM AKST NOV 16...

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Fog has developed early Sunday morning with visibilities below
  1 SM in some areas across the eastern panhandle.

- A break occurs Sunday as ridging builds over the Gulf of Alaska.
This allows for light winds and low precipitation chances.

- Next front incoming from the west on Monday.

SHORT TERM...As cloud cover has diminished, and winds continue
to decrease, fog development has begun to spread across parts of
the panhandle as of early Sunday morning. We have been able to
watch this fog develop via satellite imagery. Currently, the fog
is mainly over the eastern portions of the panhandle with the
thickest fog near Petersburg and Wrangell. This fog is likely to
remain into late Sunday morning before dissipating.

Otherwise, winds across the panhandle remain light throughout the
day with little to no precipitation anticipated. The far northern
panhandle is the most likely to see precipitation today due to a
trough that remains over the northern gulf. Although, any
precipitation that falls will remain light. All other areas of the
panhandle can expect to remain dry with times of partly cloudy to
clear skies due to a ridge moving over the central to southern
gulf. This benign pattern changes late Sunday into Monday as a
front moves across the gulf eventually pushing over the panhandle.
At that time overcast skies and widespread precipitation returns.

LONG TERM.../Monday through Thursday/... The next front moves
into the outer coastline late Monday morning, pushing eastward
over the rest of the panhandle by the afternoon and evening. This
will be followed by more onshore flow lasting through midweek as
upper level shortwaves push through and allow for waves to
continue impacting the panhandle. This overall onshore flow from
the S to SW will bring up temperatures and snow levels across the
panhandle, with 850 mb temperatures increasing to around -4 to -5
degrees C over the northern panhandle from this warmer air
impacting the area. Temperatures will drop overnight to below
freezing in the northern panhandle as well as some lower snow
levels over Haines northward, allowing for some snow overnight and
mixing in the morning for Icy Strait corridor northward as showers
still impact the northern panhandle before the front begins to
push in. This will soon change to rain Monday as the front advects
in warmer air to the not exceptionally cold airmass over the
northern panhandle, as the largely easterly winds and lingering
onshore showers will not really be ideal for getting colder air
into much of the northern panhandle overnight Sunday into Monday.
The only areas seeing snow during the frontal passage Monday will
be the higher elevation areas including the Klondike and Haines
Highways, with snow amounts for Monday being 3 to 5 inches near
the border. The rest of the northern panhandle will see up to 1
inch of accumulation from the light snow showers in the morning,
before transitioning to rain when the front moves in. The outer
coast around Yakutat is expected to get around 1 inch in 24 hours
of rainfall, with between 0.25 and 0.5 inches for the rest of the
panhandle.

Following shortly behind this front will be another quick
shortwave moving through, continuing to bring precipitation
across the panhandle Tuesday morning and lingering longest over
the northern panhandle into Tuesday night. Overall the QPF
expected for Tuesday will be even less for the panhandle, with
less than 0.5 inches for the panhandle as this wave moves quickly
through, and another 1 to 2 inches of snow for the highways.
After this is where models begin to show some lack of agreement,
with the low moving into the southern Gulf Wednesday. The clusters
are not much in agreement, as the GEFS appears to have the low
moving northward closer to the panhandle while the EPS has it
moving more south of Haida Gwaii. So far leaning towards the
grand ensemble`s solution of having the low in between these two
solutions, still allowing for a front to move across the panhandle
but largely impacting the southern half of the panhandle. The QPF
amounts are still expected to be highest across the southern
panhandle Wednesday, with between 0.75 and 1.25 inches in 24
hours expected largely along the southern coastline around PoW,
and decreasing to less than 0.5 inches in the northern half of the
panhandle. This is still expected to be largely rain, with the
highways seeing another 1 to 3 inches of snow in 24 hours
Wednesday. The QPF amounts across the northern panhandle and even
the winds along the coast and inner channels may increase if the
the low tracks more northward, however this solution is only being
shown by 20% of the ensemble clusters, making it more likely to
see the low staying further to the south.

AVIATION.../Until 12Z Monday/...Through mid-morning, caused by
overnight clearing skies & light winds, some areas, primarily in the
east-central panhandle, are experiencing patchy radiation FG,
temporarily bringing down conditions, which will dissipate via solar
heating. Beyond that timeframe, as far as CIGs & VISs are concerned,
expect mainly VFR flight conditions until late tonight when some
isolated to scattered snow showers look to move in for areas north
of Icy Strait, dipping conditions down into the MVFR category,
there. SFC winds will remain on the lighter side, & LLWS will remain
benign through the TAF period.

MARINE...
Inside Channels: Winds across the inner channels have greatly
diminished and will remain light throughout the day Sunday. These
lighter winds have allowed for areas of fog this morning mainly over
the eastern panhandle from Clarence Strait into the Icy Strait
Corridor. This fog is likely to last into late morning before
diminishing. Otherwise, winds will remain light throughout the day
with the strongest winds over Clarence Strait, up to 15 kts, for a
short time this afternoon to evening. Tonight, a front begins to
push through the gulf, reaching the panhandle by Monday morning. At
this time, winds over the inside waters will begin to increase to
moderate to fresh breezes (10 to 20 kts).

Gulf Waters: This morning, seas remain slightly elevated, around 10
to 12 ft at 12 to 13 seconds from the southwest, across the gulf.
This is due to a low pressure system that continues to move south
ahead of a short lived ridge that moves over the central and
southern gulf. As this ridge moves over the gulf, winds become
westerly and decrease to at or below 15 kts. These conditions are
short lived as a front begins to move over the gulf Sunday evening.
With this front, winds will become south/southeasterly and increase
to strong breezes and near gales (23 to 33 kts). Along with
increasings winds, seas with this front build to 10 to 13 ft across
the panhandle. These seas begin to build Monday morning over the
western gulf and reach the eastern gulf coast by Monday afternoon.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-
     672.

&&

$$

UPDATED...GFS
SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM...Contino
AVIATION...GFS
MARINE...EAB

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