204
FXAK67 PAJK 141826
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
926 AM AKST Fri Nov 14 2025

.UPDATE...Update to include 18z TAF issuance...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Continued rain, rain/snow mix, and snow showers are dotting the
  panhandle this morning.

- These showers will diminish ahead of the next frontal passage
  that will bring another round of rain and snow and wind later
  today into tomorrow.

- Brief break possible Sunday as ridging builds over the Gulf of
  Alaska.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Friday and Friday night/...Showers are dotting the
landscape of SE AK this morning. Rain, rain/snow mix, and snow
are all being reported. The snow and rain/snow mix is mainly along
and north of the Icy Strait corridor. South of that area is rain.

Going forward, these showers will continue with the snow
retreating farther to the north. So as the day goes on, the Icy
Strait corridor area should see less and less now and more rain.

At the same time, these showers will diminish today so expect
drying weather today. But it won`t last long as the next front,
that will bring the next round of precip, approaches from the
south later today and will last into tomorrow. So whatever breaks
in the precip you get today, enjoy it as much as you can as more
rain and/or rain/snow mix is likely.

Moisture amounts won`t be much for this time of year and snow
accumulation will remain minimal.

.LONG TERM.../Saturday through Tuesday/...Minimal changes have
been made to the long term, with minor tweaks focusing around
inner channel winds. A front associated with a surface level low
in the western gulf will sweep northeast Friday night, passing
over the panhandle Saturday and bringing around half an inch of
rain in 24 hours. The northern interior panhandle will see this
rain transition to more of a rain/snow mix overnight, with higher
elevated areas seeing fully snow into midday Saturday. 24 hour
snow accumulations for highest elevations are still sitting around
3 inches, with areas closer to sea level seeing around an inch or
less. After the front pushes through going into Saturday
afternoon, developing showers in the wake will keep light rain in
the forecast for the rest of Saturday, trickling out overnight.
Breaks in the clouds will start to appear Sunday morning, with a
majority of the panhandle potentially able to see sun peaking
through throughout Sunday.

The next system over the eastern Aleutians is expected to send a
front into the panhandle through midday Monday, bringing rain
through the rest of the day and Tuesday. Through the entirety of
this system, around an inch of rain is expected, with the outer
coast seeing between an inch and an inch and a half. With colder
temperatures persisting in the northern interior panhandle, many
areas of the northern panhandle will likely see a rain/snow mix
for this time, with the Klondike Highway potentially seeing up to
6 inches of snow with this system.

Winds won`t be much of an issue through the period, with 20 to 30
kts in the gulf decreasing to 5 to 10 kts between systems. Inner
channel winds look to increase to around 20 kts up Lynn Canal and
out of Icy Strait as the pressure gradient tightens early next
week. High temperatures are sitting at the high 30s for the
northern interior panhandle and increasing to the low 40s as you
move south. The southern panhandle will see highs slightly
increase as each front moves through, though will stay in the high
40s. Low temperatures won`t be too much lower than the highs,
though they look to drop to around freezing early next week.

&&

.AVIATION.../Until 18Z Saturday/...Much of the northern panhandle
is currently seeing VFR conditions with calm winds preceding the
incoming front set to reach the panhandle later in the day Friday.
Scattered showers are developing along the coast and pushing
onshore, mainly impacting the southern panhandle with MVFR CIGs
AoB 3000 ft and gusty winds up to 20 kt at the moment. MVFR
conditions are expected to prevail through the day ahead of the
front, though Yakutat, Skagway, and Haines will drop later
overnight as the front makes its way up the panhandle. Light rain,
4 to 6 SM of VIS, and some gusty winds for the south will
accompany this front, with CIGs staying around 1500 ft at the
peak. Some locations may see VIS drop down to IFR conditions as
the front passes, and more northern locations are expected to see
a rain/snow mix overnight. Southeasterly LLWS around 30 to 35 kts
in Ketchikan and Klawock is anticipated as the front approaches
from the southwest, though it is not expected to stick around for
the entire period.

&&

.MARINE...
Main marine concerns in the short term forecast are centered
around the next low pressure that will move through the Gulf today
and tomorrow. The low will move through the western Gulf today
into tonight. The associated front will swing south- to-north
later today into tonight, reaching the northern panhandle Saturday
morning. By Saturday afternoon, the low will reach the eastern
Gulf and will continue to move southeast Saturday evening.

Outside waters: Most of today, the gulf waters will be on the
quieter side, with winds around 5 to 15 knots. As the previously
mentioned front moves north into the area tonight, southeasterly
winds will swing to the southwest and will be around 20 to to 30
knots. As the low center travels through Saturday, the winds on
the south side will be strongest at around 15 to 20 knots. Some
higher wind speeds up to 25 kts are possible.

Lighter westerly winds are likely Sunday, at around 5 to 15
knots.

Inner Channels: The inner channel forecast will be a challenge.
As the front travels through the area late tonight into tomorrow,
we would expect southerly winds to increase. But with the source
low so far away, winds may only pick up to around 15 to 20 knots.
Stronger winds, up to 20 to 30 kts, likely for Clarence Strait.
Winds up to 25 knots possible for Stephens Passage.

As far as today is concerned, southerly winds for channels south
of Icy Strait, eastern winds near Icy Strait, and northerly winds
likely for areas north of Icy Strait. Strongest winds will be in
Clarence Strait at upwards of 25 to 30 knots. Much lighter
elsewhere at around 10 to 15 kts. &&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ036-641>644-661>664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GJS
LONG TERM...ZTK
AVIATION...ZTK
MARINE...GJS

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