498
FXAK67 PAJK 031833
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
933 AM AKST Wed Dec 3 2025

.UPDATE.../to add the 18z forecast discussion/...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

 - A passing front is bringing mainly rain, some increased wind
   speeds, and continued warmer-than-normal temperatures that will
   last through Thursday.

 - Late this week into next weekend, long range models are still
   hinting at a weather pattern that has been known to produce
   heavy snow. High uncertainty at this time but worth watching
   closely.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../through Thursday night/...
A passing front will bring more rain today, along with elevated
winds this morning. Ridging building in behind the front this
afternoon will result in lighter onshore flow. So expect continued
light rain tonight into Thursday, but with a general downward
trend. Model guidance is showing a system approaching somewhere
between Dixon Entrance and Haida Gwaii by late Thursday night,
with an increase in rain across the southern panhandle as a
result.

Winds through this afternoon look to be 10 to 20 mph range, but
will become lighter this evening as ridging builds in behind the
front, resulting in light onshore flow. These lighter winds look
to last through at least Thursday. Winds begin to increase late
Thursday night as the system approaches the southern panhandle.

.LONG TERM.../Friday through Monday/...
On Friday while one system will likely be passing over the south,
another low pressure will move into the NE gulf with a frontal
trough developing and extending over the northern inner channels.
Meanwhile on the north side of this front, much colder air will
push southward into the area from interior Alaska and Canada,
causing snow levels to steadily fall Friday night through the
weekend across the north. This is looking to bring potential for
significant snowfall to Yakutat, Haines, and Skagway on Saturday
and continuing Sunday. As cold temperatures push southward going
into Sunday, snow levels will fall to sea level across the Icy
Strait area and Juneau. This will cause a change over from rain to
snow with the first significant accumulations of the season in
these areas. Locations like out the road in Juneau will see more
snow than downtown with this type of pattern.

Ensemble models show at least a 20% probability of 24 hour
accumulations exceeding 12 inches, however these models currently
have a warm bias and actual temperatures are likely to be colder.
Our official forecast is trending colder with temps, but expect
them to be pushed colder still with subsequent updates.
Operational models favored for this forecast package were the 12z
GFS and Canadian.

Looking ahead Sunday and Monday, additional low pressure systems
move in while cold air under northerly outflow continues across
the north. This pattern would lead to back to back snowfall events
across the north and central panhandle. Stay tuned to updates
over the coming days on these potentially impactful weather
events, a Special Weather Statement has been issued.

&&

.AVIATION...Primarily MVFR category flight conditions are in
store through the period. Conditions may dip into the IFR category
at times for the PAHN & PAKT areas. SFC winds will be gusty out
of the south this evening for the PAGY area. SFC winds elsewhere
through the panhandle look to be relatively benign through the
period. For today, the southern half of the panhandle will have LLWS
magnitudes at around 2 kft aloft up to around 30-35 kt out of a
southeasterly direction.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside Waters:
The front passing through the eastern gulf into the panhandle is
bringing fresh to strong southeasterly winds this morning. Behind
the front, winds diminish and become southwesterly moderate to at
time fresh this afternoon. Winds continue their downward trend
tonight and into Thursday as ridging passes over the Gulf waters.
Seas 9 to 12 ft today will begin to subside by this evening,
lowering to between 7 and 9 ft by Thursday. Winds and seas look to
rise Thursday night into Friday, especially from Cape Edgecombe
south, as a low is projected to pass through the eastern Gulf and
towards Dixon Entrance and Haida Gwaii.

Inner Channels:
Frontal passage this will bring fresh to at times strong southerly
to southeasterly winds this morning, especially across the
southern inner channels, where Small Craft Advisories are in
effect. Winds will diminish behind the front with lighter onshore
flow setting up. However, winds look remain elevated a bit longer
into this evening across the northern inner channels as a tighter
gradient persists before relaxing overnight. Winds continue this
diminishing trend across the inner channels into Thursday as
ridging sets up in the Gulf. However, winds are expected to begin
to increase Thursday night into Friday with a system passing
somewhere over or to the south of the southern panhandle, with
northerly/easterly outflow developing to the north.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-036-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-
     671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...Ferrin
AVIATION...JLC
MARINE...DS

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