Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
573 FXAK67 PAJK 140559 AAA AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Juneau AK 859 PM AKST Thu Nov 13 2025 .UPDATE...Aviation section updated for 6z taf issuance. && SYNOPSIS... Key Messages: -Snow and mixed snow/rain showers training along the northeast gulf coast or just off shore. Keeping a close watch on the Yakutat area. If they train over the top of Yakutat proper a few overnight ( 2 to 4 possibly ) could fall. - Occluded front from the Bering Sea parent low to move into the panhandle area late Friday to Saturday. This will spread the next band of organized precipitation into region Saturday. - Brief break possible Sunday as ridging builds over the Gulf of Alaska. SHORT TERM... / Through Friday night / Weakening surface low over the northeast gulf, is spreading showers into the panhandle and along the coastline of the northeast gulf coast. Temperatures in the right range to increase the forecast challenge, as a result lots of areas of the northern panhandle has rain and snow in the forecast. Do expect a slow warming trend into Saturday before the band lifts into the panhandle late Friday night and Saturday. Over the Northeast gulf coast the showers are tracking along or just onshore, and based on Satellite imagery. Put 1 inch or so in the Yakutat area, but if the showers train of the over the area expect accumulation numbers to bet two to three times as much. Remainder of the panhandle has rain and possibly snow showers into Friday, before the next trough lifts in by Saturday. LONG TERM.../Saturday through Tuesday/...Minimal changes have been made to the long term, with minor tweaks focusing around inner channel winds. A front associated with a surface level low in the western gulf will sweep northeast Friday night, passing over the panhandle Saturday and bringing around half an inch of rain in 24 hours. The northern interior panhandle will see this rain transition to more of a rain/snow mix overnight, with higher elevated areas seeing fully snow into midday Saturday. 24 hour snow accumulations for highest elevations are still sitting around 3 inches, with areas closer to sea level seeing around an inch or less. After the front pushes through going into Saturday afternoon, developing showers in the wake will keep light rain in the forecast for the rest of Saturday, trickling out overnight. Breaks in the clouds will start to appear Sunday morning, with a majority of the panhandle potentially able to see sun peaking through throughout Sunday. The next system over the eastern Aleutians is expected to send a front into the panhandle through midday Monday, bringing rain through the rest of the day and Tuesday. Through the entirety of this system, around an inch of rain is expected, with the outer coast seeing between an inch and an inch and a half. With colder temperatures persisting in the northern interior panhandle, many areas of the northern panhandle will likely see a rain/snow mix for this time, with the Klondike Highway potentially seeing up to 6 inches of snow with this system. Winds won`t be much of an issue through the period, with 20 to 30 kts in the gulf decreasing to 5 to 10 kts between systems. Inner channel winds look to increase to around 20 kts up Lynn Canal and out of Icy Strait as the pressure gradient tightens early next week. High temperatures are sitting at the high 30s for the northern interior panhandle and increasing to the low 40s as you move south. The southern panhandle will see highs slightly increase as each front moves through, though will stay in the high 40s. Low temperatures won`t be too much lower than the highs, though they look to drop to around freezing early next week. AVIATION.../through 06z Saturday/ Showers are the main weather feature this evening for aviation concerns. Most of the precip has been in the northern 2/3rds of the panhandle and has been seen as a rain/snow mix in many areas. Even with the precip in the form of snow in the north, vis and ceilings are still VFR or MVFR with the lowest ceilings at Gustavus with 1400 ft. There will be some shifting of where areas of precip occur over the next 24 hours with the southern panhandle becoming more favored for precipitation by Friday morning. That will also bring in some lower conditions with ceilings down to 1500 ft at times for the south. As for wind, not much of it this evening either at sea level or aloft. However, the southern panhandle will be getting somewhat breezy starting late tonight into tomorrow with winds aloft increasing to 30 to 35 kt at 2000 ft. This may lead to some low level speed shear for southern airports into Friday evening. A more organized frontal band starts moving across the panhandle Friday night into Saturday that may bring some lower conditions and some winds to the area. MARINE... Outside waters: Hazards limited to Combined Seas at 8 feet or more. They are subsiding off of Prince of Wales Island to about 6 feet but by Friday afternoon 8 to 10 ft spreading eastward across the gulf to the southeaster gulf again, and then the full eastern half of the gulf by Saturday. Sustained winds anticipated to be under 20 kt. Inner Channels: Lighter winds speeds of 10 to 15 kt across the inner waters generally. Visibility in patchy fog and rain possible but overall limited hazards for mariners. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-036-641-661. && $$ SHORT TERM...Bezenek LONG TERM...ZTK AVIATION...EAL MARINE...Bezenek Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau