Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000
FXAK67 PAJK 050000
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH THE NEXT 24+ HOURS. THIS
AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE PASSING OVER THE AREA WITH SUNNY
BREAKS IN BETWEEN. GUSTY WINDS HAVE ACCOMPANIED THE SHOWERS.
EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING ALONG WITH SOME
SEA BREEZES. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL SEE SHOWERS DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WITH DECREASING CLOUDS. MEANWHILE A
FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE NE GULF WITH RAIN ON THE DOORSTEP OF
YAKUTAT. EXPECT THIS RAIN BAND TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF FREDERICK SOUND. THE
NORTHERN OUTSIDE WATERS WILL SEE S-SE 25-35KT WINDS ALONG THIS
FIRST FRONT THIS EVENING...THEN DECREASE FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE
THE NEXT STRONGER FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HAVE WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 30-40KT FOR A MUCH
LARGER PORTION OF THE GULF.

BY MORNING THE TWO FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL MERGE TOGETHER WITH A
SHORT BREAK IN PRECIP FOR YAKUTAT BUT NO DISCERNIBLE BREAK FOR
THE NORTH/CENTRAL PANHANDLE INCLUDING JUNEAU. THE UPPER LEVEL JET
POINTS THE LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE AT THE NE GULF COAST BY THE
AFTERNOON WITH RAIN BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES IN YAKUTAT AND MOD-HVY
AT TIMES FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. THE FAR SOUTHERN
AREAS LOOK TO STAY OUT OF THE FIRE HOSE FOR NOW...AND SHOULD SEE
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THURSDAY.

MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. ONLY MADE SMALL
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND LOCAL
EFFECTS. ONE FORECAST CHALLENGE HAS BEEN WITH THE GUSTY WINDS NEAR
SHOWERS AND ENHANCEMENT MY SEA BREEZES.

.LONG TERM.../ THURSDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY / MAIN RAIN EVENT TO
IMPACT SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING THEN STARTING TO
IMPROVE. RAIN TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST GULF COAST IN A 24 TO 30 HOUR
PERIOD. WILL NEED TO KEEP A GOOD EYE ON STREAMS AND RIVERS FOR
THIS SITUATION AS THE RAPID RISES ON THE STREAMS AND RIVERS COULD
REACH OR EXCEED BANKFULL LEVELS. HAVE CONTINUED THE SPECIAL
WEATHER WEATHER STATEMENT PER COORDINATION WITH RIVER FORECAST
CENTER FOR THE HEAVY RAINS LEADING TO THE WEEKEND.

THE FRONTAL BAND WILL SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
FRIDAY TO EARLY SATURDAY. EXPECT RAINS OF 1 TO 3 TENTHES AN HOUR FOR
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. SHOWERS IN THE ONSHORE FLOW AND ROTATING
ABOUT THE WEAKENING SURFACE FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND
AND INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY AND ENDING
FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT.

BEHIND THE LOW AS IT DISSIPATES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE IS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF. THIS APPEARS TO HINT AT A
PATTERN SHIFT FOR THE AREA. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER SOME ON THE
PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE / HIGH HEADED INTO NEXT WEEK HOWEVER THE
OVERALL IDEA IS THE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE
DIVERTED SOUTH OF THE GULF. LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING DRY
WEATHER...ALTHOUGH NOT NECESSARY SUNNY SKIES.

GALE FORCES TO MAX SMALL CRAFT WINDS FOR THE OUTER GULF COAST
WATERS SPREADING IN THURSDAY EVENING TO EARLY FRIDAY. WILL NEED
TO KEEP AND EYE FOR THE GUSTY LOCATIONS TO SEE IF A STRONG WIND
HEADLINE OR TWO IS NEEDED.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ043-051-052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-022-041-042.
&&

$$

FERRIN/BEZENEK

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