Area Forecast Discussion
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FXAK67 PAJK 100111
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
411 PM AKST TUE FEB 9 2016


.SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PANHANDLE IS RAPIDLY KICKING OUT
TO THE NORTHEAST WHICH ACCOUNTED FOR THE DRY WEATHER TODAY. THE
SKIES PARTIALLY CLEARED IN LOTS OF LOCATIONS ONLY TO HAVE RADIATION
FOG FORM ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN LOCATIONS AFTER ALL THAT RAIN
YESTERDAY. FEAR NOT...ANOTHER BAND OF MOISTURE AND WIND IS ON ITS
WAY FROM THE SOUTH ALTHOUGH WITH MUCH LESS MOISTURE THAN THE LAST
SHOT. THE STORM FORCE LOW AGAIN WELL TO THE SW WILL TRACK WELL OUT
TO SEA BUT THE FRONT LIKE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GULF
TONIGHT WILL HAVE SOME ENERGY. MODEL PREFERRED AND USED IS THE
09/12Z NAM WITH CONFIDENCE MODERATE. SNOW CALLS WERE TOUGH IN THE
UPPER LYNN CANAL AREA BUT NOT STARTING UNTIL LATE.

.AVIATION...IFR FOG FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS HAS BEEN TOO
PERSISTENT ALL DAY BUT FINALLY A LITTLE WINDS HAS MIXED IT OUT
ALL BUT A FEW LOCATIONS OFF AIRPORTS. HIGH CLOUDS NOW BUT METHINKS
MVFR CONDS IN RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND WED WITH SOME LLWS IN THE USUAL
LOCATIONS. THE FLYING BREAK THAT I THOUGHT YESTERDAY WAS RUINED BY
THE PERSISTENT FOG.

.MARINE...CAPE SPENCER IS ALREADY INCREASING FROM THE NORTHEAST AND
A BAND OF GALE FORCE OUTFLOW IS FORECASTED THERE TONIGHT. OUTFLOW
WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM TONIGHT FOR ANYONE VENTURING OUT IN YAKUTAT
BAY. SEAS REMAIN BIG AND WILL GET BIGGER ON WED DUE TO FETCH.

&&

.LONG TERM...NO BIG CHANGES IN THE LONG RANGE PATTERN WITH A UPPER
TROF REMAINING IN THE GULF WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND
THE MAIN PARENT LOW. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SERIES OF WEATHER FRONTS
THAT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS THAT WILL MOVE
INTO THE EASTERN GULF AND OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL BE
A SLIGHT BREAK IN THE PRECIP FOR THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE
MILD SIDE BUT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SOME SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND
IN THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS AND NEAR THE INTERIOR VALLEYS.

THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE FORECAST WAS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER
THE GULF AND COASTAL AREAS. THE NAM AND GEM ARE DEVELOPING A WAVE
AS THE LOW OVER THE GULF AT THE START OF THE LONG RANGE PERIOD
DRIFTS WESTWARD. THIS WAVE IS FORECASTED TO DEEPEN TO UPPER 990S
AND ROTATE ALONG 140W. THIS DEVELOPING LOW HAS THE CHANCE OF
PRODUCING SOME VERY STRONG WINDS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN
GULF. AT THIS TIME INCREASED THE WINDS TO MIN GALES WITH SOME
LOCALIZED GUSTS FOR ZONES 23 AND 27. LATER SHIFTS SHOULD KEEP AN
EYE ON THIS FEATURE.

USED A MIXED OF THE NAM AND GEM WITH SOME 12Z EC IN THE MID RANGE
THEN USED WPC TO REFRESH THE LONG RANGE PORTION. OVERALL THERE IS
ABOUT AVERAGE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-036-043.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-021-033>035-041-042-051-052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ053.
&&

$$

JC/ABJ

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