Area Forecast Discussion
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FXAK67 PAJK 270003

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
403 PM AKDT Wed Oct 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...If one glances at the satellite today, the most
prominent features anywhere within a thousand miles are the two
lows. One lies to the south offshore of the Pacific Northwest,
which we will respectfully ignore, and the other one appears south
of Kodiak Island in the southwest gulf. What becomes lost is a
dissipating low over the southeast gulf which sports a deformation
band lifting northward across the central Panhandle today. This
feature, already weak, will weaken further as the anticyclonic
overarching flow poisons its circulation. The deformation band,
robbed of its energy weakens as it moves north and the showers
that wetted Petersburg and Wrangell today will squeeze only a few
sprinkles from Juneau northward, and of course flurries over White

The sapped upper low above will then be consumed by an advancing
surface front from the southwest to build easterly winds up to 30
kt across the open gulf. Small craft winds and seas dot the
outside waters. Looking to the inside, a persistent tight east-
west gradient relaxes across the heart of the Panhandle and
retreats to the mountains themselves. Therefore, we expect the
Inside Channels to be lighter than the last several days. However,
a tightening gradient across the far north will once again cause
winds through Lynn Canal to eclipse around 30 kt late tonight.
Downtown Juneau/Douglas winds may spike up a little tomorrow as a
critical level re-establishes itself over the mountains. But
cross-barrier flow will not be super strong.

Tomorrow the low currently over the southwest gulf will take an
east to southeast path into the outer central gulf which will
align the best chances for precipitation in our far southern
reaches of our area of responsibility. But rain amounts will be

We used mainly the NAM as a guide but ad-libbed for its

.LONG TERM...Isolated to scattered showers are in the forecast across
most of the panhandle Thursday night into Friday due to frontal
bands from a low moving SE across the south central gulf. As the
low moves away, flow will become more and more offshore which will
make precip amounts very light. Then these will diminish all
together Friday night. The pressure pattern with northerly outflow
winds will ease going into the weekend with light winds expected

The next front to move across the gulf Sunday into Monday looks to
weaken as it approaches. Monday night another front moving in from
the west likely overtakes the first. Have a chance of precip in
the forecast Monday night because there is less certainty on
timing of when the precip moves in between models. Temperatures
aloft with the latest runs also cooled enough to warrant a chance
of snow mixing in along the north panhandle down to Juneau.

Made minor adjustments to pressure and wind today using the GFS
and WPC guidance. Forecast confidence is average.


.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-041>043-052.
     Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ051.



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