553
FXUS61 KAKQ 051919
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
319 PM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will gradually shift offshore through Monday.
Seasonably warm and dry conditions continue through Tuesday before a
strong cold front crosses the area on Wednesday. This will bring
scattered showers Wednesday. Much cooler temperatures arrive late
this week behind the cold front. A coastal low may develop off the
Southeast coast this weekend, potentially resulting in rain and
breezy conditions for a portion of the local area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 315 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Message:

- Mostly sunny and slightly warmer today.

- Patchy fog possible tonight.

Latest surface analysis depicted high pressure centered over the Mid-
Atlantic into the western north Atlantic this afternoon. Aloft, an
upper level ridge remains over the Eastern CONUS. As such, temps
have already risen into the upper 70s to around 80F across the
region as of 2 PM. Have risen highs temps to the lower 80s across
most of the area with mid-upper 70s along the coast. Partly cloudy
skies continue across the S/SW half of the area with sunny skies
N/E. Clouds dissipate this evening with loss of diurnal heating.

Given high pressure overhead, calm winds, and clear skies tonight,
expect another night of at least patchy fog and/or low-level
stratus. Lows tonight are expected to be a bit milder compared to
the last few nights with temps dropping into the lower to mid 50s
inland and lower 60s along the coast. Will note that, while an
outlier, the MET does have localized lows in the upper 40s across
inland areas. As such, cannot rule out cooler temps. However, given
higher dew points, confidence is low in temps dropping below 50F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Message:

- Continued mild and pleasant through Tuesday.

- Scattered showers are expected on Wednesday as a strong cold
  front moves through.

Aloft, a ridge over the East Coast gradually moves offshore by Tue
night as a trough takes it`s place. At the surface, high pressure
slides offshore Mon, allowing for mild weather to continue through
Tue. Highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s (most in the lower 80s)
continue Mon and Tue. Dry weather continues through Tue with
increasing clouds late Tue.

A strong cold front moves SE across the area on Wed with scattered
showers developing along it. PoPs increase to 60-80% Wed with
showers first moving into the NW Piedmont Tue night and across SE
VA/NE NC Wed afternoon. Confidence continues to increase in most
areas receiving around 0.5" of rain with a swath of 0.5-0.75"
possible. GEFS and EPS probs disagree with the location of the
heaviest rain with the GEFS showing a 50-60% chance for 0.5"
across the NW whereas the EPS showing the same probs just over
central and E portions of the FA. As such, the NBM meets in the
middle and shows 0.5-0.75" from Richmond NE into the Eastern
Shore. Additionally, can`t rule out a few isolated storms,
however, confidence is low. Given the precip, highs will be
cooler on Wed with temps in the lower 70s inland and upper 70s
to around 80F across far SE VA/NE NC. Much cooler temps arrive
Wed night with lows in the mid 40s NW to upper 50s to around 60F
SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 315 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Message:

- Much cooler weather arrives Thursday and continues into the weekend.

- A coastal low is possible by this weekend and may bring rain
  and breezy conditions to the area.

Aloft, a trough remains across the eastern CONUS through late week.
By the weekend, a ridge across the central CONUS becomes positively
tilted and orients from SW to NE between a trough across the Pacific
Northwest and over the Southeast. At the surface, a strong area of
high pressure builds in (centered across interior New England) late
this week, gradually lifting north by this weekend. This will result
in much cooler weather with highs in the mid-upper 60s inland (upper
60s to around 70F across far SE VA/NE NC) Thu and Fri (lower 70s
across far SE VA/NE NC Fri). Highs gradually moderate into the upper
60s to lower 70s Sat and Sun. Lows will be quite cool as well with
temps in the lower 40s NW to mid 50s SE (upper 50s along the coast)
Thu night, upper 40s NW to upper 50s SE (around 60F along the coast)
Fri and Sat nights, and around 50F NW to upper 50s to lower 60s SE
Sun night. Will note that the coolest night of the season is
possible Thu night into Fri morning with upper 30s not out of the
question across the far NW Piedmont. NBM 25th percentile had upper
30s across the Piedmont with NBM 10th percentile showing ~35F across
the NW Piedmont. As such, will continue to monitor in case temps
trend cooler, given that the lower end of guidance has temps
marginally conducive to frost formation.

By the weekend, attention turns to the coast as the upper level
pattern is supportive of a coastal low forming. This pattern (a
ridge orienting from SW to NE with a cutoff trough below it across
the Southeast and a retreating high) has already occurred
several times this Fall and has resulted in a coastal low
forming near or off the coast on multiple occasions. The EPS
continues to show increasing confidence in this scenario with
many members now showing a coastal low forming off the coast of
the Carolinas this weekend. Where this low goes into early next
week remains very uncertain. However, given the pattern, there
is a potential for widespread rain and breezy winds this
weekend. The 12z EPS mean 72 hour precip total was 0.50-0.75" W
of I-95 and 1-1.75" across E portions of the FA through Mon. The
GEFS shows the potential as well, just with lower rainfall
totals. Given that this potential threat is at the end of the
forecast period, have kept the NBM PoPs for now (slight chance
inland with chance along the coast) this weekend. However, if
this trend continues, PoPs will likely trend higher.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 140 PM EDT Sunday...

FEW-SCT CU have developed this afternoon across the S/SW half of
the area with 3500-4500 ft CIGs. Clouds dissipate this evening
with the loss of diurnal heating. Winds remain light and
variable this afternoon around 5 kt, becoming calm tonight.
Given high pressure overhead, clear skies, calm winds, and
higher dew points than last night, another round of at least
patchy fog appears probable across the area. While model
guidance is optimistic with VIS and CIGs, forecast soundings
support IFR/LIFR VIS and/or CIGs tonight across the area.
Confidence is moderate in coverage of patchy to areas of fog/stratus
and low with respect to whether IFR/LIFR VIS or CIGs are
favored. As such, trends will need to be closely monitored later
this evening into early Mon morning. For now, have added patchy
fog and SCT002 CIGs to the tafs until confidence becomes
clearer. Any fog/stratus is expected to clear by 14-15z Mon with
some fair weather CU developing in the afternoon (CIGs
2500-3500 ft). Winds remain variable, increasing to ~5 kt Mon.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected during the day through
Tuesday as high pressure remains over the region. Scattered showers
are expected on Wednesday along and ahead of a cold front.
Skies will clear out in the wake of the front as a drier airmass
moves in.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 315 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- The rip current risk drops to moderate on Monday.

- Benign conditions expected today into early this week, with a
  good chance of solid SCA conditions from Wednesday night-
  Thursday evening with NE winds.

- SCA conditions (especially due to seas) likely continue from Friday
  through next weekend.

High pressure remains centered over the area this afternoon with
variable winds around 5 kt and 3-4 ft seas/1-2 ft waves. Benign
marine conditions continue through Monday night with winds aob 10 kt
as the surface high slowly shifts offshore. Winds become southerly
and increase to 10-15 kt by late Tuesday well in advance of an
approaching cold front. Sub-SCA S-SW winds are expected through much
of Wednesday. Then, a strong cold front approaches and crosses the
waters on later Wednesday into Wednesday night. Winds become N-NE at
20-25 kt by Wed night with frequent gusts to 30 kt expected. Winds
become more northeasterly on Thursday and remain elevated with
frequent gusts of ~30 kt expected throughout the day. While a period
of low-end gale gusts is also possible during this time (especially
over the ocean), probabilities have continued to decrease slightly.
Seas continue to subside, and are expected to average 2-3 ft from
tonight-Tuesday. Seas quickly build back to 5-8 ft by Thursday
behind the front. While winds may diminish a bit by Friday-Friday
night, seas likely remain elevated. The forecast becomes much more
uncertain as we head into the weekend as low pressure may develop
offshore. Regardless, winds may pick back up with SCA conditions
likely continuing.

Rip Currents: The rip current risk gradually decreases early this
week. Hazardous surf conditions are expected once again by Wed
night/Thu due to short period large breaking waves.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 315 PM EDT Sunday...

No coastal flooding is expected through Wednesday night. Given the
very high astronomical tides combined with moderately strong NE
winds, minor flooding is possible in areas adjacent to the lower
Ches Bay/tidal James on Thursday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...RMM
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...RMM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...ERI
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...