092
FXUS61 KAKQ 220231
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
931 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front lifts north today, and then crosses the local area
as cold front Saturday. Intermittent chances for rainfall are
possible today through Saturday. High pressure builds back into
the area Sunday into early next week, leading to dry
conditions. Another system may impact the area Tuesday into the
middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 930 PM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- Higher rain chances and mild temperatures are expected
  overnight as a warm front lifts through the area.

- Another round of showers are possible Saturday afternoon
  along a southward-moving cold front, with isolated
  thunderstorms also possible in far southern VA and northeast
  NC.

Evening sfc analysis places a warm front across the area. Aloft
the flow is zonal. Temperatures this evening range from the
lower 50s N to the upper 50s S. Low stratus and reduced vsby
have developed over southern VA and NE NC as higher dewpoints
and richer low-level moisture arrive from the S. Only spotty
light rain is occurring this evening from central VA to the
Eastern Shore. More widespread rain arrives overnight. This
will be in response to a developing wave of low pressure along
the frontal system to our W, with the highest coverage/intensity
of showers corresponding to the passage of this system over the
local area in the midnight-7 AM timeframe. Given the quick
motion of the rain and the progressive sfc and upper patterns,
am still not expecting any significant QPF with rain totals up
to 0.25-0.50". Will note that a few CAMs depict some training
of showers across central and southern VA late tonight/early
Saturday. Should this occur, localized corridors of 0.5-1" would
be possible. In addition to the rain tonight, localized
visibility reductions due to fog and mist are also possible.
Overnight temps will be rather mild for late November and
generally steady to slowly rising.

The main batch of rainfall should be E of NE of the local area by
the mid-morning hours of Saturday. The remnant warm front will then
surge southward as a cold front in the late morning-afternoon hours
of Saturday as a quick-moving shortwave aloft slides through. This
will bring an additional chance for showers, especially in southern
VA and NE NC. Latest 12z model guidance has slightly increased
MUCAPE tomorrow afternoon south of the front and will show a 20-30%
chance for thunderstorms in the forecast from 10 AM-6 PM. Regarding
temps, expect a formidable temp gradient with the southward-
advancing cold front keeping areas across the S in the upper 50s-
lower 60s, while southern VA and northern NC warm into the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 230 PM EST Friday...

Key Message:

- Rain tapers off Saturday evening, followed by dry/cool
  conditions Saturday night into Sunday.

A drier, cooler airmass will filter in behind the front Saturday
night. Chilly overnight temperatures are expected with lows
bottoming out in the lower to mid 30s across the northern
counties/MD Eastern Shore and mid 30s to low 40s across the
remaining portions of the local area. High pressure will build
across the region on Sunday, with seasonal temperatures (upper 50s
to lower 60s) and dry conditions returning. With high pressure
overhead Sunday night, clear skies and light winds will prevail,
resulting in a favorable environment for radiational cooling.
Forecast lows are in the 30s for most of the area, with freezing
or sub-freezing temps possible well inland, especially NW of Richmond.
Lower 40s are expected at the immediate coast of SE VA and NE
NC.

A upper-level ridge advances eastward Monday with building heights.
This will allow for the sfc high to settle overhead. Similar high
temps to Sunday are expected, under a sunny/mostly sunny sky.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 230 PM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- Another storm system potentially approaches Tuesday into the
  middle of next week.

- Drier and cooler weather returns late in the week.

High pressure shifts offshore Tuesday in advance of our next system.
While there remains some temporal and spatial differences among the
model guidance, there is general agreement that a frontal system
moves through the OH/TN Valley Tuesday as sfc low pressure occludes
over the upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Measurable precip should
overspread the area later Tuesday into Tuesday night as a warm front
pushes N. Heading into Wednesday, the guidance then diverges
with some solutions pushing the front through Wednesday and
drying us out for Thanksgiving, while other solutions stall the
front and develop another low pressure wave Wednesday night into
Thursday. Low-end PoPs have thus been maintained through early
Thursday. Regardless of the exact details, there is a signal
that warmer temperatures will continue through Wednesday,
followed by cooler temperatures late week as an expansive upper
trough digs down across the Eastern United States.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 700 PM EST Friday...

A warm front is located across the region as of 00z. Cigs are
primarily MVFR, with IFR at ECG, and VFR at SBY. The wind is
very light out of the S. Cigs are gradually expected to remain
or gradually fall to IFR/LIFR this evening through the overnight
hours as the warm front slowly lifts to the N. MVFR/IFR vsby is
expected to develop overnight in -RA/DZ and BR. The wind will
remain light and shift to SSW. Conditions are expected to
improve Saturday morning at ECG and ORF as the warm front lifts
to the N, while IFR conditions persist at the remaining sites
through about 18z. The wind will remain light out of the SSW
closer to the warm front and become SW 5-10kt S of the boundary.
A cold front then pushes N-S across the area Saturday aftn.
Scattered showers are expected with the cold front, and there is
a ~20% chc of thunder S of a line from RIC to PHF. Cigs are
expected to be generally MVFR Saturday aftn, with brief IFR
possible immediately behind the front. The wind will shift to N
8-12kt behind the front, with gusts to ~20kt toward the coast.

The latest guidance suggests conditions will be slow to improve
Saturday evening due to weak CAA initially. Dry and VFR
conditions eventually return later Saturday night into Sunday
and will continue into early next week. Another chance for rain
and some flight restrictions returns Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 230 PM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- Benign boating conditions continue through tonight.

- A cold front crosses the local waters on Saturday, bringing a
slight increase in N to NW winds Saturday afternoon into Saturday
night.

- Mainly sub-advisory conditions are expected from Sunday through
early next week.

This afternoon, high pressure remains centered over the waters.
Winds are generally light and variable or light out of the S to SW.
Seas are running around 1 to 2 feet and waves 1 foot or less. The
pressure gradient begins to tighten tonight into Saturday morning as
a weak low pressure system approaches from the west. Wind speeds
through 12z/7 AM Saturday will remain no higher than ~10 to 15
knots. The low then moves offshore, dragging a cold front a cold
front over the waters from the late morning through the afternoon.
This is the main forecast concern through the weekend, as winds turn
to the north following the FROPA and increase to around 15 knots.
There will be a brief window of marginal Small Craft Advisory
conditions, mainly over the lower Chesapeake Bay, between ~3 to 7 PM
where winds may occasionally gust to 20+ knots. Winds become NNE-NE
and diminish to ~10 to 15 knot by Saturday night as the pressure
gradient slackens. Due to the marginal nature of the event, opted to
hold off on any SCAs at this time. High pressure builds back over
the waters Sunday into early next week, leading to fairly benign/sub-
SCA conditions. The next chance for SCAs will be late Wednesday into
Thursday as a stronger cold front approaches and crosses the waters.

Seas gradually build to around 3 feet tomorrow-tomorrow night
(locally 4 feet south), with waves in the bay averaging around 2
feet. Seas diminish back to around 2 feet Sunday into early next
week, before building again ahead of our next system (3 to 4 feet).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...SW/AJZ
SHORT TERM...SW/NB
LONG TERM...SW/NB
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJB/ERI