725
FXUS61 KAKQ 101135
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
635 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Much colder temperatures arrive today and especially Tuesday with
widespread below freezing temperatures expected Tuesday morning. Dry
with seasonable temperatures expected Wednesday through Saturday
with high pressure in control. Another system may approach the area
Sunday into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Much colder today/tonight. A Freeze Warning remains in effect
tonight for widespread below freezing temperatures expected.

- A few flurries or light snow showers are possible later this
evening into tonight.

Early this morning, the strong cold front from earlier has now
pushed off the coast with cooler air beginning to filter in from the
NW. Rain chances (generally light) will linger for much of the area
east of I-95 through sunrise as weak low pressure develops offshore.
Otherwise, skies gradually begin to clear from west to east, with
temperatures dropping back into the upper 30s across western
portions of the area to around 50 closer to the coast.

Much cooler and breezy today in the wake of the front with
temperatures only in the lower 50s for a good portion of the area.
The main upper trough is still expected to pass over the area later
this evening into tonight, bringing with it very steep low to mid
level lapse rates as well as mid level moisture and weak lift. This
may allow for some light precipitation to develop across northern
portions of the area this evening, spreading further S and SE later
tonight into early Tuesday morning. Still expecting this
precipitation to be very light (perhaps mostly virga) with
significant dry air showing up in model soundings due to strong, dry
NW low level flow off of the mountains. However, if precipitation
does fall, it could be a light rain/snow mix to start, becoming all
snow across southern portions of the area later in the night. Am
generally not expecting any accumulations, though if there were to
be minor accumulations (~0.1"), the best chance would be across far
southern VA into interior northeast NC where slightly heavier/more
organized precipitation may fall due to slightly less dry air. Latest
HREF probs actually show ~50-70% probabilities for 0.1" of snow
accumulation across far southern VA and northeast NC though this may
be a bit overdone due to warm ground temperatures.

Outside of any winter precipitation chances, expect a widespread
hard freeze across all of the area. There is an 80 to 90%
probability of temperatures dropping below 28F for much of the area
away from the immediate coast tonight. A Freeze Warning remains in
effect for all portions of the forecast area where the growing
season continues. Gusty winds are expected through the night across
the region. This upper trough and very cold air will allow for deep
mixing, even over the land. This will allow for very low wind chills
for this time of year across the area. Certainly wind chills in the
lower 20s can be expected with some wind chills in the teens by
sunrise Tuesday AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Dry/cold on Tuesday with moderating temperatures Wednesday.

High pressure builds south of the area Tuesday into Wednesday,
leading to dry weather. It will be very cold and breezy on Tuesday
with temperatures likely not rising out of the 40s. Not as cold
Tuesday night compared to tonight due to an increasing SW wind.
Temperatures will generally be in the 30s with some 40s along the
immediate coast. Warmer on Wednesday with temperatures ranging from
the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 230 AM EST Monday...

- Dry weather and seasonable temperatures for the middle to end of
the week.

- Another system may approach the area Sunday into early next week,
bringing the next chance for rain.

Temperatures near normal with mostly dry conditions expected
Thursday through Saturday. Upper heights gradually start to build
across the region as the sharp trough early in the week moves
northeast and becomes closed off over the Canadian Maritimes while a
ridge builds over the middle of the country. This will keep the
Middle Atlantic mostly dry through the extended period, although
there is a chance for rain Sunday into early next week depending on
how quickly the next trough approaches the area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 635 AM EST Monday...

MVFR CIGs at PHF/ORF/ECG to start off the period, lingering
until ~14z at PHF and ~15z at ORF and ECG. Light rain showers
will gradually diminish over the next couple of hours. VFR
conditions are then expected this afternoon although NW winds
will gust to 15 to 20 kt at times. There is a slight chance of
light rain and/or snow showers later this evening into tonight
with an upper system (highest chances south), but conditions
should remain VFR.

Outlook: VFR/dry Tuesday through Friday with breezy conditions
during the afternoon hours.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 750 PM EST Sunday..

Key Messages:

- A strong cold front pushed south of the area this morning.
  Elevated winds and seas expected from today into the middle of
  the week. Small Craft Advisories have been issued for today.

- Gale Warning are now in effect for the coastal waters,
  Chesapeake Bay, and Currituck Sound for later tonight into
  Tuesday.

The cold front was pushing south across the Bay and coastal
waters early this Monday morning resulting in north winds which
will increase through the morning. Some light scattered
showers were moving north, but overall rainfall was limited and
should not last long early this morning. Winds across the local
waters were generally north at 10 to 20 kt and winds will
increase some through the morning hours behind the cold front
with gusts to 20 kt and potentially briefing to 25 kt. Seas
were 3 to 4 ft this morning and waves on the Bay were 1-2ft.
SCAs are in effect for the Bay due to gusts to 20 kt.

Confidence remains lower in frequent gusts up to 25 kt across
the coastal waters today through winds could gusts to 20 to 25
kt for a short time this morning. SCAs across the coastal
waters do not go into effect until 4 PM today across the N
coastal waters and 7 PM across the S coastal waters. Wind will
likely decrease for a time later this afternoon before
increasing again this evening and overnight.

Have also kept the start times for the SCAs for the lower James
River and Currituck Sound to 4 pm this afternoon due to low
confidence in frequent gusts up to 20 kt this morning and a
period of lighter winds this afternoon. Winds will increase late
today and tonight.

Late Monday night is when the strong CAA will build in.  Given
the cold airmass (850 mb temps dropping to -8 to -10 C) over
still-relatively mild waters in the mid 50s, Gale conditions
appear increasingly likely tonight into Tuesday. Confidence is
highest of the coastal waters, but gale conditions are still
possible over the Bay. WNW winds increase to 25-30kt (20-25kt
in the rivers) after midnight tonight/Tuesday morning with
gusts 30-35 in the bay and rivers and up to 35-40kt over
coastal waters. Local wind probs depict upward of 90% probs for
34kt+ wind gusts of the coastal waters while probs for the mouth
of the bay are around 30% and lower for the Bay. Given these
cold air masses tend to over perform have updated the Gale
Watches to Gale Warnings. Winds will decrease 20-25kt Tues
evening and Tues night as they turn to the SW. Elevated west
winds continue through Wed and into Thurs before finally
dropping below SCA thresholds Thur evening/night.

Seas increase to 4-6ft by late tonight and into Tuesday. The
WNW offshore wind direction should keep highest seas closer to
20nm out. Seas drop below 5ft later in the week. Waves in the
bay will be 1-2ft today, 2-3ft Monday, and 3-5ft Tuesday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Tuesday for
     NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
VA...Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Tuesday for
     VAZ065-075>090-092-093-095>100-512>525.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ630>632-634.
     Gale Warning from 4 AM to 4 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ630>632-634-
     656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EST
     Tuesday for ANZ633-656-658.
     Gale Warning from 4 AM to 1 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST
     Tuesday for ANZ635>637.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST
     Tuesday for ANZ638.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST
     Tuesday for ANZ650-652-654.
     Gale Warning from 4 AM to 7 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJB
SHORT TERM...AJB
LONG TERM...AJB/MRD
AVIATION...AJB/LKB
MARINE...JAO