617
FXUS61 KAKQ 070707
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
307 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Seasonably warm and dry conditions continue today before a strong
cold front crosses the area on Wednesday. This will bring scattered
showers Wednesday. Much cooler temperatures arrive late this week
behind the cold front. A coastal low may develop off the Southeast
coast this weekend, potentially resulting in rain and breezy
conditions for a portion of the local area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 240 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Continued mild and pleasant through this afternoon.

- Scattered rain showers move into western and northwestern portions
of the area tonight.

Early this morning, high pressure is centered off the Mid Atlantic
coast. Meanwhile, a cold front is located well to our northwest,
currently over the Great Lakes region. Skies are mostly clear and
winds are generally light and variable. Patchy fog (mainly thin,
ground fog) has developed across portions of the area, with the
highest coverage mainly over interior portions of NE NC and up into
interior SE VA. Lows are on track to range from the mid to upper 50s
with lower 60s across the SE and along the immediate coast.

High pressure becomes situated further offshore and the cold front
will continue to approach from the NW as we head through the day.
Skies will start off sunny to mostly sunny, with mid and high level
clouds gradually thickening (especially by this evening) from west
to east. Any AM patchy fog dissipates quickly after sunrise with dry
weather expected through sunset. Another mild day with highs in the
lower 80s (locally mid 80s).

As we head into tonight, the front approaches the region from the
west with skies becoming mostly cloudy to overcast. The night starts
off dry, but showers begin to quickly move in from the west, likely
overspreading the NW half of the area by sunrise Wednesday AM. Total
QPF will range from ~0.10" to 0.35" across the NW through tonight.
Lows remain mild due to the increase in cloud cover/moisture, with
widespread readings in the lower to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered showers are expected on Wednesday as a strong cold front
moves through.

- Much cooler weather arrives Thursday, with 30s across our NW
counties Thursday night/Friday AM.

A strong cold front crosses the area later Wednesday morning into
Wednesday afternoon. Scattered showers (and isolated thunderstorms)
develop along and ahead of the front, with the highest rain chances
for much of the area during the first half of the day. Rainfall
totals have remained consistent with 0.25-0.75" of rain (most around
0.5") expected. Locally higher totals around 1" are possible. Due to
the precipitation and the front moving into the area, temperatures
will be cooler Wednesday, generally ranging from around 70 NW to
around 80 SE. Any rain chances come to an end later Wednesday
evening into the first part of Wednesday night, with much cooler and
drier air filtering into the area behind the front. It will also
become breezy near/along the immediate coast with NNE winds gusting
to 25 to 30 mph (potentially up to 35 mph in spots). Temperatures
fall back into the 40s inland and 50s across the SE and along the
coast.

High pressure builds N/NW of the region on Thursday. Much cooler on
Thursday with temperatures only in the low to mid 60s for most of
the area. Skies will range from sunny to mostly sunny, but it will
remain breezy out of the NE (especially closer to the coast). It
will be a chilly night Thursday night, with low temperatures
dropping back into the upper 30s across our NW counties to the low
to mid 50s across the SE. The latest NBM 25th percentile has trended
cooler, with mid 30s across much of the NW Piedmont and the NBM 10th
now showing some lower 30s. Given this, will have to watch for the
potential for patchy frost across portions of Louisa and Fluvanna
counties. Will note that this is on track with the fall median (50%)
first potential frost for Louisa which is ironically 10/10 (10/12
for Palmyra). See the "Fall First Frost and Freeze Dates" on our
website for more specifics.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 240 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

- A coastal low is possible by this weekend and may bring rain  and
breezy conditions to the area.

Aloft, a trough remains across the Southeast into early next week.
By the weekend, a ridge across the central CONUS becomes positively
tilted and orients from SW to NE between a trough across the Pacific
Northwest and over the Southeast. At the surface, a strong area of
high pressure builds in (centered across interior New England) late
this week, gradually lifting north by this weekend. This will result
in continued cooler weather with highs in the mid-upper 60s inland
(lower 70s across far SE VA/NE NC) on Friday. Highs have trended
cooler for the weekend with temps expected to remain in the 60s to
lower 70s SE for highs each day. Lows will be quite cool as well,
upper 40s NW to upper 50s SE (around 60F along the coast) Friday and
Saturday nights, and low-mid 50s (upper 50s along the coast) Monday
night.

There remains a lot of uncertainty in the extended forecast, with a
possible coastal low developing off the Carolinas this weekend.
Confidence is increasing that this low will develop given strong
ensemble support, but the exact track of the low is a little more
uncertain as some guidance brings it along our coast, while others
have it displaced further offshore. Pending the track of this
coastal low, there is potential that we could see widespread
rainfall and breezy to windy conditions, especially along the coast,
this weekend. We will continue to monitor any model trends in the
track and strength of this developing low closely over the next few
days and adjust the forecast as necessary.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 100 AM EDT Tuesday...

Mainly clear skies/VFR conditions continue early this morning.
The position of the sfc high offshore w/ an approaching cold
front typically is not favorable for widespread fog, though
patchy fog/ground fog will still be possible after midnight
through ~12Z, primarily across interior SE VA/NE NC. SCT CU,
along with increasing high clouds is expected this afternoon,
with winds becoming S at around 10 kt. A few showers are
possible late in the TAF period, but this is expected to stay W
of the main terminals until later tonight.

Outlook: Degraded flying conditions arrive tonight into
Wednesday. Scattered showers are expected on Wednesday along
and ahead of a cold front. Skies will clear out in the wake of
the front Wednesday night, with a breezy NNE wind at the coast
continuing into Thursday as a drier airmass moves in. Another
period of sub-VFR CIGs are possible as we head into this
weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 305 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the Chesapeake Bay
  north of Windmill Point this evening into tonight.

- A cold front crosses the waters Wednesday, brining elevated
  north to northeast winds and building seas. Elevated winds
  and seas linger through most of the week.

- Low pressure develops south of the area this weekend. While
  uncertainty remains high, dangerous marine conditions may
  develop later Saturday into early next week.

High pressure is centered offshore and northeast of Bermuda this
morning, but it extends well westward into the Mid-Atlantic and
Carolinas. S-SSE winds are generally 5-10 kt in the Chesapeake Bay
and in the coastal waters, but 5 kt or less near the coast and in
the rivers. These lighter winds will prevail through the rest of
this morning into the early afternoon. SSE winds are forecast to
increase some later this afternoon as the synoptic pressure gradient
begins to tighten in response to an approaching cold front to our
NW. A southwesterly low-level jet will also overspread the waters
tonight. The wind is expected to become 15-20 kt for the central and
northern Chesapeake Bay and coastal waters, with 10-15 kt S of New
Point Comfort in the bay and S of Cape Charles in the coastal
waters. A period of marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions is
likely in the northern Chesapeake Bay after 00z/8 PM this evening
and have raised a headlines from 00z/8 PM through 11z/7 AM
Wednesday. Local wind probabilities for >18 kt sustained winds are
60-80% in this zone (ANZ630), dropping off considerably further S.
Despite occasional gusts to 20-25 kt likely in the northern coastal
waters, will hold off on SCAs for now with the expectation that seas
remain in the 3-4 ft range (as reflected by numerical wave
guidance).

The potent cold front will drop southward through the waters
Wednesday. An abrupt shift in the wind direction to the N is
expected Wednesday afternoon, along with a wind surge by the
evening as cooler air quickly filters in and strong high
pressure builds southward from the eastern Great Lakes vicinity.
Strong Small Craft Advisory winds are currently anticipated,
with some potential for a short period of gale-force gusts in
the midnight-6 AM time frame Thursday. Probabilities and
confidence are too low for Gale Watches, but this potential
will be monitored over the next 12-24 hrs. In the wake of the
cold front, a compressed pressure gradient will prevail over our
local waters with anomalously strong high pressure to our north
and lower pressures offshore of the Carolinas. Therefore, there
is high confidence in SCA conditions continuing through most of
this week. Seas are forecast to build to 5-7 ft by Wednesday
night and then 6-9 ft (locally 10 ft in the NC waters) by
Thursday.

Forecast uncertainty continues to remain high this weekend. However,
there is agreement across most deterministic and ensemble model
guidance that low pressure develops along a stalled coastal trough
Saturday, drifting north or northeast near or just offshore of
our coastline Sunday into Monday of next week. The track and
strength of the low are the aspects of the forecast with the
lowest confidence, with a closer and slower low track likely to
lead to a prolonged period of significant marine impacts.
Oppositely,  more offshore track would limit the severity of
impacts. At this time, will advertise strong Gale conditions in
the marine forecast, but some model guidance illustrates higher-
end scenarios with wind gusts of storm force. Additionally,
seas are forecast to build to at least 8-12+ ft.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 305 AM EDT Monday...

No coastal flooding is expected through Wednesday night, other
than nuisance flooding near Bishop`s Head, MD this afternoon
and again tonight. Given the very high astronomical tides
combined with moderately strong NE winds, minor flooding is
possible in areas adjacent to the lower Ches Bay and tidal
York/James on Thursday and Friday. Additional coastal flooding
is possible this weekend.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ630.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB
NEAR TERM...AJB
SHORT TERM...AJB/RMM
LONG TERM...AJB/RMM
AVIATION...AJB/LKB
MARINE...SW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...