297
FXUS61 KAKQ 180206
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
906 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure becomes centered over the region tonight into
early Tuesday. The high moves offshore Tuesday afternoon ahead
of a low pressure system, which will bring a quick chance of
rain Tuesday night. Primarily dry Wednesday and Thursday as high
pressure returns.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 905 PM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Clear and chilly tonight as high pressure settles over the
  area.

A potent upper trough is located over northern New England and
Atlantic Canada this evening, with strong ~975mb low pressure
lingering over the Gulf of Saint Lawrence. Meanwhile, chilly
~1020mb high pressure is centered just to the west as of this
writing. Breezy W-NW winds have diminished with the surface high
sliding overhead. The decoupling winds have allowed temperatures
to plummet across the region over the past few hours, with 02z
readings already in the low to mid 30s inland, upper 30s to low
40s along the coast and along the I-95 corridor. A clear sky,
combined with a calm to very light wind and a dry airmass should
result in ideal radiational cooling conditions, and have bumped
overnight lows down a few degrees into the mid-upper 20s to
near 30 inland. Lows along the coast will mainly be in the mid
30s to around 40F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 PM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Low pressure moves in later Tuesday into Tuesday night with
  rain chances for the local area.

High pressure slides offshore Tuesday morning. Clouds increase
and thicken later Tuesday morning into the afternoon (from NW to
SE) ahead of a weakening surface low pressure system
approaching from the WNW. Rain will attempt to arrive from W-E
late Tuesday afternoon, but will initially have to overcome a
rather dry airmass as forecast soundings depict a rather dry
sub-cloud layer. The highest rain chances, 60-80% are primarily
along and north of the US-460 corridor Tuesday evening, then
shifting ESE overnight, with PoPs tapering to 30-50% from
southern VA into NE NC. The latest trends amongst 17/12z
ensemble systems and blends is for median QPF of 0.25-0.4" N to
0.1" or less S. Overall, a beneficial rainfall is not expected,
and if locally higher amounts do occur, they would likely be
from the Northern Neck to the Lower MD Eastern Shore. The bulk
of the rain likely falls Tuesday evening, lingering closer to
the coast overnight/early Wednesday morning. High temperatures
Tuesday will range from the upper 50s/lower 60s in the far
south, to the lower 50s for the north, with some upper 40s
possible in the northern piedmont if thicker cloud cover arrives
earlier. Low temperatures will not be as chilly given clouds
and rain, and range from the upper 30s N to the mid 40s S.

Low pressure pushes offshore Wednesday with weak high pressure
building in from the W. Mainly dry aside from low rain chances
along the coast early Wednesday. Becoming partly sunny with high
temperatures ranging from the mid 50s N to the mid 60s S
(though will note there is some spread in guidance as the 17/12z
NAM continues to keep some low clouds in place most of the
day). Partly cloudy Wednesday evening, with increasing clouds
overnight. Lows will be mild, generally ranging through the 40s.
Partly sunny Thursday with high temperatures ranging from the
upper 50s NE to the mid/upper 60s S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 200 PM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Gradually warming temperatures are expected for the remainder
  of the week.

- Passing disturbances bring chances of light rain late Thursday
  night into Saturday.

Weakening low pressure tracks front the Great Lakes to the
northeast Thursday night into Friday, with the trailing (but
weakening) cold front dropping into the area Friday night into
Saturday. This will produce occasional low-end light rain
chances (greatest N) later Thursday night through Saturday.
Spread in the model guidance has improved some by later in the
weekend and early next week, and overall shows weak high
pressure and dry conditions by Sunday and Monday. A gradual
moderating trend is expected Friday and Saturday with highs
mainly in the 60s Thursday (50s NE), then upper 60s to lower 70s
Friday and Saturday, with mid 70s possible S both days.
Forecast lows are in the mid 40s to lower 50s Friday morning,
and then the 50s Saturday morning. The latest blended guidance
depicts slightly cooler, but still near to above average
temperatures Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 635 PM EST Monday...

VFR/dry conditions across area terminals persist tonight with a
calm to light generally NW wind, as high pressure builds across
the region. Continued VFR on Tuesday. High pressure slides
offshore in the morning with a light E to SE wind developing.
High clouds increase and thicken Tuesday aftn and evening as
low pressure approaches from the W.

Light rain becomes likely from RIC to SBY Tuesday night, with a
chance of scattered showers farther south as the aforementioned
weak low pressure system tracks across the area. Degraded
flight conditions are expected st SBY, with brief sub- VFR
conditions possible at RIC, and the latest trends indicating
predominant VFR conditions persist elsewhere. Primarily VFR
then for Wednesday through Thursday as weak high pressure
rebuilds over the region. Another chance for light rain arrives
Friday into Saturday, as low pressure tracks N of the area
Friday, followed by the associated cold front dropping into the
region Saturday. The best chc for light rain is at the northern
terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 255 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the coastal waters north
  of Parramore Island and the Chesapeake Bay north of Windmill
  Point into early tonight.

- Generally benign marine conditions are expected from Tuesday through
  Friday.

- Winds become elevated and northerly behind a cold front late Friday
  night into Saturday.

Afternoon surface analysis depicted a strong area of low pressure NE
of Maine (~976mb) with a ~1022mb area of high pressure building in
from the west. The pressure gradient between these two features
remains tight enough across the northern waters for NW winds of 15-
25 kt with gusts up to 25-30 kt to continue into early tonight. As
such, Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the coastal waters
north of Parramore Island and the Chesapeake Bay north of Windmill
Point into early tonight. Farther south, the weaker gradient has
allowed for lighter NW winds of 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt this
afternoon. The area of high pressure builds into the region from the
west overnight, centering over the local waters by Tue. As such,
expect winds to gradually diminish overnight before becoming light
and variable on Tue. A period of generally benign marine conditions
is expected from Tue through Fri with sub-SCA conditions likely. The
next chance for SCA conditions isn`t until Fri night or Sat when N
winds become elevated behind a cold front. However, confidence is
quite low at this time.

Seas of 3-5 ft this afternoon subside to 2-3 ft by late tonight
(earlier across the southern coastal waters). Meanwhile, waves
gradually subside from 2-3 ft this afternoon to 1-2 ft by late
tonight. The next chance for elevated seas of 4-5 ft is Sat behind
the aforementioned cold front.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ630-650-652.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJZ/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ/LKB
AVIATION...AJZ/MAM
MARINE...RMM