002
FXUS61 KAKQ 070724
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
224 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure becomes centered across the region tonight, with
areas of fog and freezing fog possible. Primarily dry conditions
are expected Sunday, but a weak low pressure system brings a
chance for rain and snow Monday. Mainly dry for Tuesday through
Thursday, with shower chances increasing with the next cold
front late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 800 PM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Freezing fog is expected inland tonight, dry and a bit warmer
  Sunday.

A Freezing Fog Advisory has been issued for our western tier of
counties as of 8 PM EST. Temperatures will continue to drop this
evening, falling back into the 20s tonight. This combined with
widespread visibilities of 1/4 SM (or less) will lead to the
potential for slippery conditions tonight into Sunday morning,
especially on bridges, elevated surfaces, or untreated roadways.
Expect the fog to continue to spread east over the next few
hours and an expansion of the advisory to the east is likely.

Previous Discussion: The latest WX analysis shows a rather weak
pressure gradient over the local area, with widespread low
clouds hanging on east of the Blue Ridge. Temperatures have
remained quite cold in the the piedmont, in the low-mid 30s
which is about 10 degrees below NBM forecasted readings as of 3
PM. Somewhat warmer air is in place across SE VA/NE NC
(temperatures in the 40s).

Challenging forecast tonight with respect to fog/freezing fog
as the models continue to strongly suggest that it becomes
widespread along and W of I-95 after midnight, while the latest
conditions have been much slower to allow for any clearing over
the CWA (which leads to lower confidence). For now, will still
show some clearing this evening, with light winds conducive to
radiational cooling later tonight. NAM and GFS BUFKIT soundings
continue to depict boundary level saturation with the potential
for more widespread and dense fog/freezing fog. Lows tonight
fall into the 20s for most of the area with low 30s near the
bay/coast. After morning fog/freezing fog, Sunday would
eventually see partial sunshine. especially south, along with
milder temperatures rising into the low-mid 40s north, with
lower 50s SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 310 PM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Weak low pressure off the SE coast will bring a chance for
  rain/snow changing to snow Monday.

- Dry and cold Tuesday.


High pressure will be offshore Sunday night, allowing low level
flow to become southerly ahead of an approaching cold front.
Meanwhile, weak low pressure lifts ENE off the coast of northern
Florida, gradually strengthening off the SE coast on Monday. All
of the models have trended farther north with the precip chances
Monday, with a similar temperature profile to previous runs.

As a short wave aloft traverses the region on Monday, expect at
least a chc for precip for most of the CWA (generally highest
PoPs across the south). Deep layer moisture is still somewhat
limited behind the surface cold front, but the trends are wetter
so would not rule out the potential for QPF amounts to ~0.25"
and think the NBM is behind on the trends. With ~1030 mb sfc
high pressure sliding east from the Great Lakes into NY/PA
during the day Monday, there will be a good feed of cold air
into the mid-Atlantic, with very cold air aloft. Latest 12Z/06
GEFS/GEPS/ENS have trended significantly upward and now show
20-60% chances for at least 1" snowfall across central and south
central VA (assuming a 10:1 SLR) which may actually end up
being more like 15:1 later in the day. Will mention the winter
WX potential Monday in the HWO for now and continue to monitor
model trends over the next few cycles as this will bear watching.
High temps Monday top out in the mid 30s NW to the low 40s SE
(but if moisture lingers Mon evening even SE zones have some
snow potential).

Very cold air moves into the region Monday night with lows in
the mid to upper teens inland, mainly low to mid 20s near the
coast. High pressure over the region on Tuesday will become
centered south of the area late in the day. Mostly sunny, but
cold Tuesday with highs in the mid/upper 30s NW to the mid 40s
SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 320 PM EST Saturday...

- Milder Wednesday and Thursday.

- Another front crosses the region late in the week with colder
  temps and precip potential.

Medium range models and ensembles are in decent agreement that
midweek should be milder as a deep upper trough amplifies
across central Canada, with low pressure tracking through the
Great Lakes. This allows for an increasing SW low level flow
Wed, with highs into the 50s for most. Remaining relatively mild
Wed night and Thursday, with increasing rain chances Thursday
night/Friday as the next system impacts the region. Precip
potentially changes over to a rain/snow mix before ending Friday
night. Saturday looks dry and cold as high pressure builds in
from the NW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 125 AM EST Sunday...

Widespread LIFR/VLIFR conditions in place over much of the
region early this morning. Freezing Fog Advisory includes the
RIC, SBY, and PHF terminals until 14z. 1/4SM VSBY (or lower in a
few spots). Satellite shows LIFR conditions spreading SE and
will likely impact ORF over the next hour or so. Temperatures
across the SE terminals are still above freezing so not
expecting widespread FZFG at ORF. ECG may escape the fog but
CIGs fall to IFR prior to sunrise. Light and variable winds
overnight continue through the end of the period.

Outlook: Primarily VFR conditions return by Sunday night.
Another system Monday morning may bring degraded flight
conditions, especially to the S terminals, behind a strong cold
front.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 220 AM EST Sunday...

- Marine Dense Fog Advisory in effect this morning. Otherwise,
  benign marine conditions through this evening.

- Another round of SCAs expected early Monday through Tuesday
  morning, as a strong cold front moves across the local waters.
  A period of gale force gusts are possible on Monday, with the
  best chance over the coastal zones and into the Mouth of the
  Chesapeake Bay.

- Another system may bring degraded marine conditions to the
  area Wednesday through the end of the week.

Weak high pressure continues to build over the local waters from
the west this morning. Obs and buoy reports as of this writing
reveal W-NW winds ~5 kt in the rivers and bay, 5-10 kt just
offshore. Waves of around 1 ft in the bay, rivers and sound,
with seas 2-3 ft north, 3-4 ft south. Currently noting areas of
fog over the waters, and a Marine Dense Fog Advy is in effect
through mid-morning for the bay and eastern VA rivers. Light
and variable winds continue this morning, with light winds
veering around to the W-SW this afternoon and this evening. Waves
remain around 1 ft and seas subsiding to 2-3 ft along the
coastal zones.

Marine conditions are still expected to rapidly deteriorate
early Monday morning. Strong high pressure will push a strong
cold front through the area late tonight into early Monday
morning. Winds will increase sharply in the wake of the front,
as an area of low pressure skirts northeast off the Carolina
coast. The past few successive runs of the CAMs have been
stronger and closer to the coast with the low, with the
resultant tighter pressure gradient resulting in an increased
chance of Gale Force gusts in post-frontal CAA. It does look
increasingly likely that a 6-10 hour period of gale- force
gusts accompanies the initial push of this drier, colder air
pushing into the region, along with some rain and snow showers.
Still lower confidence with regard to the exact duration of
Gale Force gusts, but there is enough confidence for the central
and southern coastal zones south of Wachapreague, as well as
the Currituck Sound and the Mouth of the Ches Bay, to add a Gale
Watch for Monday. Have run the headline from mid- morning
Monday through midnight Monday/early Tuesday. For the remaining
zones, while a brief period of Gale force gusts is possible,
they appear brief enough to handle with SMWs as needed, and
thus a Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the duration of
the event from late tonight through Tuesday morning. It is
possible that later shifts may have to extend out a bit farther
out, as weak CAA lingers into the day on Tuesday as high
pressure builds across the area, and also as seas linger AOA 5
ft.

Winds diminish Tuesday into Tuesday night, but ramp back up
again early Wed as a warm front lifts across the region. Another
strong cold frontal passage brings another period of strong SCA
to low-end Gales by Friday into next weekend.

As winds increase on Monday, waves will rapidly build to 3-5 ft
in the Bay (highest at the mouth of the Bay) and seas will
build to 6-9 ft over the coastal waters. Despite an expected
gradual downtrend in winds Tuesday, seas will be slower to
subside, and will likely remain near or just briefly drop below
SCA criteria before building again with the second wind surge
forecast for Wednesday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Freezing Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for
     MDZ021>025.
NC...Freezing Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for
     NCZ012>014.
VA...Freezing Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for VAZ048-
     060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-096-097-099-509>524.
     Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for VAZ095-098-
     100-525.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for ANZ630>632-
     634>638.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Monday to 6 AM EST Tuesday for
     ANZ630>632-650-652.
     Gale Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for
     ANZ633-634-654-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Monday to midnight EST Monday
     night for ANZ635>638.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...AJB/LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...LKB/RHR
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...MAM/NB