329
FXUS61 KAKQ 081130
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
630 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front slides across the Mid-Atlantic region early
this morning. A warm front lifts across the area early Sunday,
followed by a strong cold front Sunday night. This will bring a
chance of showers Sunday into Sunday evening. Much colder
temperatures arrive early next week in the wake of the cold
front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 245 AM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- A few showers are possible early this morning as a weak frontal
  passage moves through.

- Dry today behind the front with warm temperatures reaching the
  lower 70s.

An upper level trough is moving across the NE as a surface low
pressure centered north of the Great Lakes region pushes a weak cold
front across the area early this morning. Light rain has begun
across the piedmont ahead of the front with a few pre-frontal
showers towards the SE. These showers will continue to move
eastward, losing forcing as it moves eastward. PoPs are highest in
the piedmont to Richmond metro at 40-60%, diminishing to around 15% in
SE VA/NE NC and will only bring light accumulation to the area, even
in areas with higher PoPs. Any showers should dissipate around 7 AM.

Behind the front today, temperatures will be warmer, as there is
little to no CAA behind the front. Highs will be above seasonal
average in the upper 60s across the eastern shore, lower 70s for VA,
and locally mid 70s in NE NC. Skies will clear out this morning
behind the front, then increase again late this afternoon. A warm
front associated with the next system will approach the area late
overnight, passing through the area Sunday morning. With this, rain
chances will increase overnight to 40-60%, especially in the SE.
Overnight lows will additionally be warmer than average in the upper
40s in the piedmont, lower 50s inland and the eastern shore, and mid
50s in SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 AM EST Saturday...

Key Message:

- Remaining warm on Sunday, chance of showers in the morning from
  warm front, then becoming breezy.

- Sharply colder temperatures usher in behind a strong cold front
  beginning Monday with a hard freeze likely Monday night.

The next low pressure system will track NE across the eastern Great
Lakes Sunday which will drag the aforementioned warm front across
the area in the morning. Showers are likely, moving in a SW-NE
motion. A few rumbles of thunder are possible in the SE, but there
is limited instability, so chances remain low. Temperatures during
the day Sunday will reach the lower 70s for areas NW and mid 70s for
areas SE (upper 60s on the eastern shore). Behind the warm front, a
strong cold front will move through the area Sunday night into early
Monday morning. Scattered showers are expected with this front
Sunday afternoon into the overnight hours, especially towards the
coast. Given the strong kinematics in place, there is a slight
chance of thunder Sunday night with front. SPC has the SE included
in a Marginal Risk for severe weather, although this seems to be
generous, as instability remains rather weak despite strong shear.
Sunday`s lows will be in the lower to mid 40s.

Behind the strong cold front, a significant pattern change will
leave Monday in a much colder Canadian airmass. A strong upper level
trough will move into the eastern half of the CONUS. Temperatures
Monday will only reach the lower 50s (despite the abundance of
sunshine). Overnight a hard freeze is likely, with lows in the upper
20 for most and lower 30s along the coast and eastern shore. The
00z/08 ensemble runs continue to hint towards a light rain/snow mix
or a few flurries possible Monday night into Tuesday, but the dry
air mass behind the front will have to become more saturated for
this to occur. Confidence remains low at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 245 AM EST Saturday...

Key Message:

- Cooler temperatures continue Tuesday with near freezing low
  temperatures.

- Dry weather and moderate temperatures for the middle to end of
  next week.

The strong upper level trough that will bring the chilly Canadian
airmass will begin weakening late Tuesday, but not before another
cold day on Tuesday. Highs will only reach the upper 40s, even with
clear skies. Overnight lows will be near freezing inland and mid 30s
along the coast. Then, the trough will lift away from the area and
weaken causing a stark contrast in temperatures between Tuesday and
Wednesday. Seasonal temperatures will return for mid to late week
with highs in the upper 50s/lower 60s and lows in the upper
30s/lower 40s. Dry weather will persist into late week as surface
high pressure influences the area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 630 AM EST Saturday...

A weak cold front is crossing the area early this morning. The front
will push offshore by late morning, leaving FEW/SCT high clouds and
VFR conditions throughout the day. WNW winds of ~10kt will become
light and variable by late afternoon and into the night. A warm
front is expected to lift across the area early Sunday. This will
bring a chc of showers with sub-VFR conditions possible. Conditions
will likely begin to deteriorate by 09z/09 with IFR and locally LIFR
CIGs possible. Lower VIS is possible with heavier showers.

Outlook: A stronger cold front will cross the region later
Sunday aftn and evening bringing sub-VFR conditions and chc of
showers with a few tstms possible across SE VA and NE NC.
Conditions will improve Monday through Wednesday with dry and
VFR weather.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 200 AM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- A strong cold front impacts the region Sunday night into Monday,
with elevated winds and seas extending expected Monday into the
middle of next week.

- Gale conditions are likely for at least the coastal waters Monday
night into Tuesday.

Early this morning, a warm front is draped over the waters and a
cold front is approaching from the NW. Winds have decreased from
earlier this evening, with S to SW winds ranging from 10 to 15 knots
over the bay and 15 to 20 knots over the coastal waters. Small Craft
Advisories have been allowed to expire over the Chesapeake Bay but
remain in effect over the northern coastal waters until 7 AM. The
cold front crosses the waters later this morning with winds become W
to NW in its wake but remaining light/sub-SCA due to a lack of
significant CAA. Winds eventually become light and variable later
this afternoon into this evening with high pressure briefly
returning ahead of our next (stronger) system.

Another, much stronger, cold front approaches the waters on Sunday
before crossing the waters late Sunday night into Monday morning. A
strong northward surge in winds is anticipated along the initial cold
frontal passage in the ~06z/1 AM timeframe Monday AM, with strong
SCas likely and brief gusts >34 knots possible. SCA-level winds
linger through most of Monday before a stronger push of CAA arrives
Monday night into Tuesday. Given the degree of airmass change (850
mb temps dropping to -8 to -10 C) over still-relatively mild waters,
Gale conditions appear increasingly likely. The highest probability
for gale conditions continues to be over the ocean, but are also
possible on the Chesapeake Bay (especially near the mouth/lower
Bay). Gale Watches will likely be needed by later today or tonight.
Winds gradually diminish Tuesday afternoon, but still remain near
high-end SCA. Winds turn west and then southwest by the midweek
period, likely remaining at or above SCA thresholds into Thursday.

Seas of 3 to 5 feet are possible through this morning, highest N. A
benign sea state then returns later today and Sunday, before
increasing again later Sunday and remaining elevated through most of
next week.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJZ/KMC
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...AJZ/KMC
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...KMC/LKB
MARINE...AJB/SW