339
FXUS61 KAKQ 122334
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
634 PM EST Wed Nov 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A dry cold front crosses the area later tonight into Thursday.
High pressure builds back into the area Friday into the weekend.
Another frontal system potentially crosses the area later
Sunday into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 625 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- A dry cold front crosses the area tonight.

High pressure remains centered over the northern Gulf this
evening with low pressure over eastern Canada. NW flow aloft is
in place over the eastern third of the CONUS. Winds are expected
to diminish this evening to around 5-10 mph with stronger winds
along the coast. Mainly clear skies are expected for the first
half of tonight. However, a dry cold front crosses the area
tonight, keeping winds from decoupling and bringing an increase
in cloud cover after midnight. Lows tonight will range from the
mid 30s north to the low-mid 40s south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 230 AM EST Wednesday...

Key Message:

- Dry weather and seasonable temperatures continue.

High pressure builds northward into the area Thursday but staying
breezy through the afternoon before dropping off at night. It will
be dry once again with dew points mainly in the upper 20s and low
30s, resulting in RH values 25-35% during the afternoon. Another IFD
may be required for portions of the area on Thursday. Afternoon high
temps range from the mid 50s for the MD Eastern Shore to around 60
degrees for the rest of the area. Winds decouple Thursday night with
low temps falling into the upper 20s to low/mid 30s. The growing
season has ended for the Wakefield CWA and no further frost/freeze
headlines will be issued until Spring of 2026.

Dry and seasonable Friday and Saturday with high pressure dominating
the local weather. Highs in the 50s and 60s expected each afternoon.
Overnight lows in the 30s to low 40s Friday. with mid 40s to mid 50s
expected for low temps Saturday ahead of the next cold front.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 240 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Another mainly dry cold front crosses the area Sunday into
  Monday.

12z guidance continues to show little in the way of precip ahead of
the next cold front but have maintained chance to slight chance PoPs
across roughly the northern third of the area late Saturday night.
Lows will be much warmer than previous nights with mid 40s to mid
50s expected. Warm again Sunday before the front moves through with
afternoon highs into the low 70s inland and mid to upper 60s for the
Eastern Shore. Cooler temperatures return behind the front with
highs in the 50s and 60s and lows in the 30s and 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 635 PM EST Wednesday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 00z TAF period. Mostly clear
skies continue through at least midnight. A dry cold front
crosses the area tonight with cloud cover increasing after
midnight to SCT-BKN due to cirrus. There is some potential for
a brief period of LLWS this evening near ECG before midnight,
however, confidence was too low to include in the TAF. Cloud
cover thins by Thu afternoon outside of a few lingering cirrus.
SSW winds of ~5-10 kt this evening (~10 kt closer to the coast)
become W over the next few hours. Winds become WNW 10-15 kt with
gusts up to 20-25 kt on Thursday across most terminals with
higher winds expected across the Eastern Shore (15-20 kt with
gusts up to 25-30 kt at SBY).

Outlook: VFR/dry through Saturday with lighter winds expected
on Friday. There is a chance for some light showers as well as
potentially degraded flying conditions on Saturday night across
northern portions of the area, including SBY.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 230 AM EST Wednesday..

Key Messages:

- Gusty W to NW winds continue through Thursday. Have extended
  the SCA for the northern waters and middle Chesapeake Bay
  through early Thu evening.

- Benign marine conditions expected Friday into Saturday before
  the next cold front brings increasing winds/building waves
  for Sunday.

W to NW winds have decreased slightly this afternoon and shifted
slightly WSW ahead of a weak cold front that will move through the
area this evening. This will allow the winds to turn W-NW again and
slightly increase to 15 to 25 kt. As such, will continue the small
craft advisory for all waters.

Latest guidance suggests that the northern coastal waters and middle
Ches Bay will see increased winds on Thursday as compared to
previous forecasts. In fact, the probability of 18+ kt winds is
above 80 percent for these areas through Thursday afternoon,
although the 25 kt probs are very low (less than 10%. As such, will
extend the SCA for the middle Bay and northern Coastal Waters until
7pm Thursday. It is possible that these advisories will need to be
extended into Thursday night as the 18+kt exceedance
probabilities remain high through the evening hours Thursday.

The high to the west finally builds across the Middle Atlantic by
Friday allowing the gusty winds to diminish. The high will be
centered just west of the area by Saturday allowing for lighter
north winds of 5 to 15 kt. However, the high quickly shifts offshore
by Saturday night with a strong cold front approaching the area on
Sunday. This will allow for south to southwest winds to rapidly
increase to potentially 15 to 25 kt before shifting to the WNW
Sunday night behind the front itself. Gales are not expected with
this system at this time.

Seas gradually diminishing over the next few days. With the offshore
flow the 3 to 5 ft seas today will gradually diminish to 1 to 3 feet
by Friday into Saturday. Increased wind wave of 3 to 6 ft (2 to 4
feet in the bay) from the south on Sunday as southerly winds
increase.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 515 PM EST Wednesday...

Dry and breezy conditions continue on Thursday with min RH values
25-30 percent across the Piedmont and 30 to 35 percent east of
I-95. Highs will once again be in the lower 60s for most (mid to
upper 50s across the Eastern Shore). WNW/W winds remain breezy
with gusts to 20 to 25 mph for most and 25 to 30 mph across the
Eastern Shore. However, winds are a bit lower with RH a
bit higher than what we saw today. As such, there are no plans
for another Increased Fire Danger (IFD) statement at this time.
Nevertheless, dry and breezy conditions are forecast area-wide,
so extra caution with ignition sources is advised.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Thursday for ANZ630-650-
     652.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EST Thursday for ANZ631-632-
     634-654-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for ANZ633-
     635>638.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RHR
NEAR TERM...RHR/RMM
SHORT TERM...RHR
LONG TERM...RHR
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...MRD
FIRE WEATHER...