234
FXUS61 KAKQ 221928
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
228 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds back into the area late tonight into
early next week, leading to dry conditions. Another system
impacts the area Tuesday into the middle of next week, with
cooler and drier conditions to then follow from Thanksgiving Day
into next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 225 PM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Showers taper off along the coast late this afternoon, with
  gradual clearing late tonight and overnight.

- Cooler tonight with lows 35 to 40 inland, and upper 30s to mid
  40s along the coast.

Latest surface analysis reveals ~1000mb sfc low pressure over
the Gulf of St. Lawrence. The attendant surface cold front is
now just offshore of the New England and mid-Atlantic coast. An
upstream shortwave trough approaching from the west is finally
starting to nudge quasi- stationary front draped over the area
farther to the SSE as a cold front. This front has also ushered
another round of showers across the region this afternoon, with
those showers currently in the process of sliding offshore.
Clearing is already underway inland, with gradual clearing along
the coast to begin around and after sunset. 19z temperatures
have tumbled back into the low to mid 50s behind the front over
much of the area, and expect that falling temps trend to
continue into the SE CWA.

Thicknesses hang up a bit tonight, with the true CAA still about
24 hours out from our region. That said, clearing tonight, with
a relatively cooler airmass filtering in across the area tonight
post-frontal. Chilly overnight temperatures in the upper 30s to
around 40 are forecast for tonight north of Richmond over to
the VA northern neck and Lower MD Eastern Shore. Farther south,
slightly milder early morning lows in the 40s to near 50 over
central/SE VA into northeastern NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 225 PM EST Saturday...

Key Message:

- Dry, seasonable conditions Sunday, with cooler temperatures
  Monday.

High pressure builds across the region on Sunday, with seasonal
temperatures and dry conditions returning. A clipper system
traversing southern Ontario into the interior northeast will
drag a reinforcing, dry cold front across our area on Sunday.
Behind this front, cooler, drier air mass builds into the area
tomorrow night into Monday morning. With high pressure overhead
this cooler airmass Sunday night. While the BL remains mixed
enough to preclude max radiating, mostly clear conditions, light
winds nevertheless yield a good environment for radiational
cooling, and a chilly night is forecast area wide into Monday
morning. Look for lows Monday morning dropping into the 30s
(lower 40s along the coast).

Dampening upper ridging aloft slides across the region from the
mid-South region on Monday. Meanwhile, mild surface high
pressure of Pacific origin settles across the region late Monday
into midweek. This will bring a sunny start of the day. Weak
WAA starts to move into the area from NW to SE late Mon and Mon
night, ahead of the next mid- level trough approaching the area
from the west. Ongoing cool air advection will mitigate slightly
above normal thickness values, yielding highs in the upper 50s
to low 60s. Increasing clouds Monday night with lows 35-40
inland, upper 30s to low 40s along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 225 PM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Another storm system approaches Tuesday into the middle of
  next week. Additional rounds of showers will be likely
  Tuesday night and Wednesday.

- Drier and cooler weather returns from Thanksgiving Day into
  next weekend.

Guidance is starting to become into better agreement with the
latest 12z run. There continues to be good agreement that
dampening mid-level trough and its attendant frontal system
moves through the OH/TN Valley Tuesday, as sfc low pressure
occludes over the upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Weak
overrunning will bring gradually thickening and lowering cloud
cover Tuesday morning, w/light precip to overspread the area
later Tuesday into Tuesday night as a warm front lifts across
the region.

While there has been divergence in solutions come Wednesday,
mainly pertaining to the speed/strength of the mid-level trough,
ensemble guidance is steadily trending towards the cold front
pushing through on Wednesday night. Similar to this past system,
this could result in another round of showers with the actual
frontal passage Wednesday night. This would then lead to a
clearing, cooler, and drier Thanksgiving Day. This also likely
portends to milder temperatures hanging around Tuesday through
Wednesday, to be followed by much cooler temperatures returning
by late week as an expansive upper trough digs down across the
Eastern United States. Look for highs well into the 60s to lower
70s Tue, low to mid 70s on Wed, with cooler highs in the 50s on
Thanksgiving Day. By Friday and Saturday, temperatures could
struggle to reach 50F.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 125 PM EST Saturday...

A weak cold front was pushing south-southeast across coastal
terminals to begin the 18z/22 TAF period. VFR conditions still
in place ahead of the front in the warm sector across SE VA and
NE NC (ORF/ECG), with IFR to MVFR CIGs farther inland across
RIC/PHF/SBY. Winds have veered around to the NNW post-frontal
and will shift to the north to northeast by evening. CIGs
recover to VFR this evening, though onshore flow could hold SE
coastal terminals in high-end MVFR into the late evening hours.
Model trends continue to reflect likely clearing to VFR after
06-08z, though patchy stratus could remain an issue over the
piedmont through ~12z Sunday before clearing.

Outlook: Dry and VFR conditions all terminals on Sunday, with
VFR to persist into early next week. Another chance for rain
and some flight restrictions returns for later Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 240 AM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Dense fog is possible over the waters through mid morning.

- A cold front crosses the local waters today, bringing a slight increase
  in N to NW winds this afternoon into tonight. SCAs are in
  effect for the bay from this afternoon through late this
  evening.

- Sub-advisory conditions are expected on Sunday, with a decent chance
  of low-end SCAs from Sunday night-Monday morning behind
  another cold front.

Early this morning, high pressure is centered offshore with weak low
pressure in the central Appalachians. A frontal boundary is draped
just to the north of the waters with S winds of 5-10 kt as per
current observations. In addition, Dense Fog Advisories are in
effect for the NC waters until 7 AM, and may need to be expanded
northward during the next few hours. Wind speeds through 7 AM will
remain no higher than 10 to 15 knots out of the south. The low then
moves offshore, dragging a cold front through the waters from the
late morning-late afternoon. Winds turn to the north following the
FROPA and briefly (for ~3 hours) increase to 15-20 kt on the
bay/ocean before becoming NNE-NE and diminishing to 10-15 kt
tonight. The highest confidence in low-end SCA conditions is over
the lower Chesapeake Bay, and have issued SCAs here from 1-10 PM
(with the most likely window for frequent 20-25 kt gusts being from
2-6 PM). Even though it is more marginal in the upper bay, have
issued SCAs here as well after collaboration with neighboring
offices. High pressure builds back over the waters Sunday, leading
to fairly benign/sub-SCA conditions. Another cold front crosses the
waters Sunday night into Monday morning, bringing a decent chance of
low-end SCAs with N-NW winds. Sub-SCA conditions return from late
Mon-Wed AM. SCAs are again possible from late Wednesday into
Thursday as a stronger cold front approaches and crosses the waters.

Seas gradually build to around 3 feet later today-tonight (locally 4
feet south), with waves in the bay averaging around 2-3 feet. Seas
diminish back to around 2 feet Sunday, before building to 3-4 ft by
Monday behind the next front.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ630-
     631.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ632-
     634.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MAM/NB
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/NB
LONG TERM...MAM/NB
AVIATION...MAM/NB
MARINE...AJB/ERI