420
FXUS61 KAKQ 301920
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
220 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Light rainfall is expected into this evening along and ahead of
a cold front. High pressure settles near the eastern Great
Lakes Monday in the wake of the cold front. A low pressure
system impacts region Tuesday, with a brief period of freezing
rain or sleet possible in the Piedmont late Monday night. High
pressure returns with dry and cool weather for the middle of the
week. Another system potentially impacts the region Friday into
Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 100 PM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Mainly light rain is expected along an advancing cold front
  today. Cool temperatures prevail across the Piedmont with
  milder temperatures in eastern VA and NE NC.

- Cold and dry air pushes back into the area tonight behind the
  cold front.

Early this afternoon, high pressure is now situated east of the
local area with an occluding low over the Great Lakes. A cold
front is west of the area, now entering western West Virginia.
There is a large spread in temperatures across the area with
upper 30s to low 40s across the W and NW to the upper 50s and
mid 60s in SE VA and NE NC. Otherwise, the cold front will push
through the area later this afternoon and evening, with light
to locally moderate rain accompanying the front. CAMs show quite
sparse precip coverage across central VA and PoPs are only in
the chance category (30-50%) this afternoon here. As the front
approaches the Eastern Shore and coast later this afternoon and
evening, there is decent consensus that rain coverage should
increase a bit and likely PoPs remain in the forecast. The front
pushes south into NC early tonight with 60-70% PoPs through
midnight. Winds turn to the NW and then N late tonight, ushering
colder and drier air back into the region. Overnight lows range
from the mid-upper 20s well inland to 30s near the coast,
warmest in coastal SE VA and NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 215 PM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Dry and cool Monday.

- Widespread rain is expected late Monday night into Tuesday.

- Rain may start as a brief wintry mix across far NW portions of the
Piedmont late Monday night into early Tuesday morning.

Mostly sunny and dry Monday as high pressure settles N of the area
and the flow aloft becomes (quasi) zonal. Temperatures will be
chilly areawide and in the mid-upper 40s. Cold initially Monday
evening into the first part of the night with temps dropping in the
upper 20s to lower 30s. However, cloud cover will increase
substantially after midnight as another system approaches the area,
likely allowing temps to level off and rise some.

A stronger system, with widespread precip, still remains on track to
impact the region later Monday night into Tuesday. Weak low pressure
is initially progged to develop along the Gulf coast ahead of an
approaching trough Monday night. Widespread precip then moves in
later Monday night into early Tuesday morning as favorable ascent
downstream of the trough overspreads the region and a strong upper-
level jet noses in from the W. The broad low will also be
approaching the Southeast coast during this time. The heaviest
precip is expected Tuesday morning into early Tuesday afternoon as
the low approaches the NC OBX vicinity and deepens to ~1000 mb.
Model output still shows a rather robust southerly 850 mb jet,
allowing PWATs to increase to ~1.5" across SE VA and NE NC and ~1"
for the remainder of the area. Rain then quickly departs later
Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening, as the low pulls away from
the coast. There remains moderate to high confidence in a good chunk
of the area seeing 1"+ of rain (mainly from I-95 and points E), with
some potential for up to 2" in far eastern and southeast VA and NE
NC. Most areas should see 0.5" at a minimum. Overall, the
progressive nature of this system, along with limited to no
instability, should prevent rain totals from being much higher than
1-2". Combined with dry antecedent conditions, the flooding threat
is very low.

The main forecast uncertainty remains any potential for winter
precip issues at onset Tuesday morning. Any winter precip is
expected to remain confined to far NW portions of the forecast area
where cold air will be able to hang on the longest. Precip may
briefly start as snow or a rain/snow mix at the onset, becoming a
wintry mix, and then quickly turning over to plain rain as
temperatures rise. Little to no accumulation is anticipated.
Regarding temps, highs stay in the 40s for most areas, with milder
temps (50s to low 60s) across far SE VA and NE NC (where the warm
sector may briefly intrude). Becoming very cold Tuesday night with
strong cold advection in the wake of the low. Forecast lows are in
the lower-mid 20s inland and and upper 20s-lower 30s nearer to the
coast.

High pressure builds over the region on Wednesday, leading to dry
conditions/sunny skies. It will remain cool with temperatures
staying in the 40s areawide.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 215 PM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Temperatures moderate slightly on Wednesday ahead of an
approaching (dry) cold front.

- Another system is expected to impact the region at the end of  the
week. Widespread precipitation is possible, potentially   of the
frozen variety. However, confidence is very low in the   specific
details at this range.

Temperatures moderate slightly on Thursday ahead of a (dry) cold
front which is forecast to cross the area Thursday afternoon. Highs
will range from the upper 40s to mid 50s. Another surge of very cold
air filters into the area in the wake of the front, with lows
dropping back into the 20s for most inland areas (possibly upper
teens NW) Thursday night/Friday AM.

Another complex system is expected to impact the area Friday into
Saturday. The initial evolution could be quite similar to our
Tuesday system, but there remains significant run-to-run variability
across the model guidance. A more suppressed system, with a low
tracking south of the area, could lead to some wintry precip
concerns away from the coast. The current model
consensus...including the NBM...shows a messy wintry mix for
portions of the area Friday into Saturday night. This could entail a
mix of rain, snow, sleet, and freezing rain before changing over to
plain rain. Given the wide spread in model/ensemble solutions,
confidence still remains low in regards to the evolution of this
system/temperatures. Continue to follow the forecast for the latest
updates. Precip potentially lingers into the first half of Saturday.
Beyond Saturday, there is even lower confidence in the forecast with
a blended approach favoring low PoPs and below average temps.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 100 PM EST Sunday...

MVFR conditions across the western half of the area, with VFR
further south and east to start off the forecast area. Scattered
(generally light) rain showers have developed out ahead of an
approaching cold front. The rain will tend be
quite scattered for inland locations (including RIC) this
afternoon. Light to locally moderate rain advances toward the
SE terminals this evening, where there is higher confidence to
carry prevailing RA in the TAFs. MVFR CIGs progress further to
the east with the front throughout the afternoon/evening. The
front crosses the area later this evening into tonight, with
skies clearing out/CIGs improving in its wake. Surface winds
become S-SW and increase to 5-10 kts this afternoon ahead of
the front. The wind shifts to the W by 00z and then N/NW after
06z, becoming gusty at the coast.

Outlook: Winds remain elevated through midday Monday along the
coast. The front stalls just south of the local area on Monday,
with another system to lift NNE along the front Tue-Wed,
bringing a more widespread rain to the region. Flight
restrictions are likely as early as late Monday night,
continuing through much of Tue/Tue night. VFR conditions return
Wed/Thu.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 215 PM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect for tonight and Monday behind
a cold front.

- A developing coastal low pressure system brings hazardous  marine
conditions Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday. Solid SCAs are
likely, with low-end gales possible.

High pressure has moved well offshore, while a deepening low
pressure system moves across the Great Lakes region this afternoon.
The local waters are currently situated in a weaker pressure
gradient, with winds of 5-15 kts, with the highest winds being
measured across the coastal waters. Waves in the Bay are 1 ft or
less, while seas in the coastal waters range between 2-3 ft. The
aforementioned low pressure system will continue its NE track,
moving through the St. Lawrence Valley tonight and dragging a
surface front across our area. Behind the front, winds will quickly
shift to the NW and then to the N by Monday. 950mb wind is forecast
to reach 25-30kt in the post-frontal CAA surge, with local wind
probs showing 80-100% for gusts >=25kt over the coastal waters and
60-80% over the Chesapeake Bay. SCAs remain in effect for the Ches.
Bay, lower James, the coastal waters, and Currituck Sound. Seas will
build to 4-5 ft (highest out near 20nm) late tonight into Monday
morning, with 3-4 ft waves in the Chesapeake Bay late tonight/early
Monday morning.

High pressure will build in behind the front Monday
afternoon/evening, and winds will become NE-E and decrease in
response. This decrease in winds will be brief as another low
pressure system advances towards the area Monday night. This
strengthening low will move across the area Tuesday morning,
dragging its associated cold front through the local waters. The low
will deepen as it moves offshore Tuesday evening/night. While the
pressure gradient will tighten as a result, the strongest winds
locally will be associated with the CAA surge on Tuesday night.
Local wind probs have remained steady at 60-80% (highest out near 20
nm) and 50-70% in the Middle Chesapeake Bay. With frequent gusts to
gale-force forecast for Tuesday night, have decided to put up a Gale
Watch for the coastal waters N of the VA/NC border and the
Chesapeake Bay. Though the local wind probs are much less in the
lower Bay for gusts to 34 kts, the uncertainty in the exact track of
the low is what prompted the Gale Watch for the entire Bay as
opposed to just the middle Bay. That being said, the Gale Watch may
need to be expanded to the NC coastal waters if the track varies
from the current forecast. Seas are forecast to build to 5-7 ft,
while waves in the Chesapeake Bay are forecast to build to 3-4 ft.

High pressure will return to the area Wednesday afternoon into
Wednesday night, then will slide offshore Thursday. Another cold
front is forecast to move across the coast Thursday night,
potentially bringing additional SCA conditions to the area. This
front will be followed by yet another low pressure system by the
weekend, with continued degraded marine conditions.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
     Monday for ANZ630>632-634.
     Gale Watch from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday night
     for ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ633-
     656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ638.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Monday for ANZ650-
     652-654.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB/SW
NEAR TERM...AJB/SW
SHORT TERM...AJB/SW
LONG TERM...AJB/SW
AVIATION...AJB/SW
MARINE...AJZ/NB