944
FXUS61 KAKQ 100545
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1245 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold temperatures expected again tonight that will lead to any
snowmelt to refreeze on untreated surfaces. Slightly "warmer"
temperatures tomorrow with windy conditions ahead on a cold
front. Uncertainty still remains with multiple systems late this
week and at the end of the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 850 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Temperatures drop/remain below freezing tonight allowing for any
melted snow to refreeze.

- Windy but "warmer" day tomorrow as a warm front pushes through the
area.

High pressure is situated along the Carolina coast this evening.
Frequent shortwaves have been filtering E/ESE in the W/WNW flow
aloft, with one now offshore. A stronger shortwave is located
across the northern Plains states and this feature will quickly
dive SE toward the area tonight into tomorrow. Locally, high-
level clouds have shifted offshore as that aforementioned
shortwave departs. The main question tonight will be how cold
does it get? Particularly, the snow cover could again allow
temps to quickly drop into the teens in some spots, especially
early on. Some observations (as of 830 PM) in the Piedmont are
already in the lower 20s and these readings correspond to
locations that saw the heaviest snow yesterday. These cold temps
present a black ice threat as any leftover snow/slush on
sidewalks and roads will refreeze. There could also be
localized radiation fog on top of the snowpack, with some local
observation sites showing intermittent lower visibilities.
Regardless, don`t expect this to be a huge issue. A quick-
moving low pressure system and cold front begin to inch closer
to the area tonight and the low- level return flow should
increase out of the south. This, combined with increasing
clouds, will likely allow temps to level off or increase a few
degrees after midnight.

For Wednesday, a strong low pressure system will be tracking to
the north of the area across the Great Lakes. As this system
tracks across that area a warm front will push across the area
helping to warm temps into the middle to upper 40s inland and
lower 50s along the coast. In addition to the warmer
temperatures a windy day is expected as the pressure gradient
tightens ahead of a cold front. Wind gusts are expected to be
between 25 to 30 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Cooler temperatures again Thursday in wake of the cold front.

- Potential for another clipper system Friday.

A large trough will be centered over much of the eastern half of the
United States resulting in NW flow aloft across the area. At the
surface, a high pressure will come back out of Canada ushering in
another round of cooler and drier air. This high pressure is not
expected to be as strong and lows Wednesday night will only fall
into the upper 20s to low 30s inland and middle 30s across the far
SE and coast. Thursday will be cooler as the high remains over head
with temperatures reaching into the low to middle 40s. There
continues to remain some uncertainty for Friday. Deterministic
models and their ensembles continue to remain in some disagreement.
On Friday the high pressure is expected to slide offshore a a weak
clipper system is expected to move over the area. This clipper
system could potentially lead to additional snow showers across the
northern half of the area. The question remains will there be enough
moisture and if so how much snow could potentially fall. At this
time, not expecting much due to the uncertainty. The latest ECMWF
shows 30 to 50% of 1" of snow across the far NW as the GEFS has
around 10%. Trends in the models will continue to be monitored.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 230 AM EST Tuesday...

- Dry and "warmer" weather is expected Saturday with another system
bringing some potential precipitation again Sunday.

- Much colder airmass moves in late Sunday bringing lows down into
the middle teens at night and only upper 30s Monday.

Strong troughing is expected to be over the area during the weekend
with NW flow aloft persisting. High pressure is expected to remain
over much of the area Saturday with dry weather conditions expected.
Highs will be in the upper 40s across the north and low to middle
50s across the south. Saturday night lows will be in the upper 20s
to low 30s. There still remains some uncertainty for Sunday due to
the inconsistency from the ensembles. There is the potential for
some additional precipitation some potentially wintry. However, at
this time pops have been capped off no higher than 35%. Behind the
potential system Sunday a moderate to strong high pressure will move
out of Canada ushering in an arctic airmass. Lows SUnday are progged
to be in the middle to upper teens and low 20s along the coast. This
colder airmass will be locked in place through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1245 AM EST Wednesday...

Primarily VFR conditions across area terminals early this
morning will persist through the 06z TAF period. Mainly mid to
high clouds to impact the terminals this morning. Some of the
high-res guidance continues to show some llvl moisture creating
some sct-bkn stratus toward sunrise, mainly across the piedmont.
Diminishing probs with this though and given current obs, have
held out of the TAF for now and will continue to monitor.

Otherwise, mostly cloudy today with gradually thickening and
lowering cloud cover ahead of a cold front. SW winds also
become quite breezy ahead of the front, with wind speeds around
15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt (locally 30 kt along the coast).
Additionally, a strengthening low-level jet will result in
southwesterly LLWS at RIC tonight, followed by LLWS at all
terminals from late morning into this evening. There is also
a very low chance of an isolated shower just north of KRIC and
around the KSBY terminal as the front moves through in the
evening, but PoPs are <20%.

Outlook: Gusty NW winds and VFR conditions are expected post-
frontal Thursday. An approaching disturbance could trigger some
light rain or snow Friday into Friday night (best chance for
snow across the far N), with intermittent flight restrictions
possible. Another cold front could bring light precip on
Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 245 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Winds increase Wednesday ahead of a cold front. Gale Warnings a re
in effect for coastal waters N of Cape Charles, SCAs are in effect
for most others zones in the marine area.

- Another strong cold front potentially crosses the coast later
Sunday.

High pressure is centered in vicinity of the Mid-Atlantic coast
this afternoon. The wind is light and generally out of the W to
NW. Seas range from 3-4ft N to 5-6ft S. High pressure slides
offshore tonight into Wednesday. Meanwhile, strong low pressure
lifts NE through the Great Lakes Wednesday, with the trailing
cold front crossing the coast later Wednesday evening into
overnight Wednesday night. A SW wind will increase ahead of the
cold front Wednesday, with additional mixing with the frontal
passage Wednesday evening. Wind probs for >= 34kt gusts are >70%
N of Cape Charles (highest out near 20nm), and forecast
soundings from the 09/12z NAM/GFS suggest a period of gale force
gusts Wednesday aftn into Wednesday evening. Therefore, the
Gale Watch has been upgraded to a Gale Warning. Elsewhere, a SW
wind is expected to increase to 15-25kt with gusts to ~30kt and
SCAs have been issued for the Ches. Bay (beginning later
tonight), the lower James (beginning early Wed morning), the
Currituck (beginning Wed aftn), and continuing for the southern
coastal waters all through late Wed night/Thu morning. Seas
build to 4-6ft S to 5-8ft N, with 3- 4ft waves in the Ches. Bay.
The upper rivers may eventually need an SCA for a few hours Wed
aftn.

High pressure briefly returns Thursday aftn into Thursday night. A
weakening low pressure system and cold front cross the region Friday
night. High pressure then settles over the Southeast Saturday. Sub-
SCA conditions are expected to prevail Thursday aftn through at
least Saturday. A strong cold front crosses the coast later Sunday
into Sunday night with high pressure returning Monday. At least SCA
conditions are expected based on the 09/12z guidance.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for ANZ630-631-
     656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for ANZ632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST
     Thursday for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this
     evening for ANZ635>637.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 AM EST
     Thursday for ANZ638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ650-
     652.
     Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EST this evening
     for ANZ650-652.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ654.
     Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EST this
     evening for ANZ654.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HET/MAM
NEAR TERM...HET/SW
SHORT TERM...HET
LONG TERM...HET
AVIATION...MAM/SW
MARINE...AJZ