021
FXUS61 KAKQ 101707
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1207 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Slightly milder today despite plenty of cloudiness today, on
increasingly breezy SW winds. A cold front crosses into the area
tonight, with cooler temperatures for Thursday and Friday.
Uncertainty still remains regarding the potential for additional
light wintry precipitation, associated with multiple clipper
systems late this week and again at the end of the weekend. A
very cold start to next week will give way to relatively milder
temperatures for the middle to end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 945 AM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:


- Windy but a bit milder today as a warm front lifts across the
  area this morning.

- Thickening afternoon and evening clouds, as a cold front
  crosses the area this evening. A few sprinkles or light rain
  showers are possible this afternoon, mainly over the northern
  third of the area.

Latest weather analysis reveals 1020+mb high pressure centered
from the coastal Carolinas to the Gulf coast this morning.
Aloft, another strong but compact shortwave is noted on early
morning IR/WV satellite dropping across the mid-Mississippi
Valley this morning. This system and its attendant sfc low will
drop across the Ohio Valley later today, before swinging into
New England tonight.

Not quite as cold this morning relative to yesterday at this
time. This is owing to the increasing cloud cover and the low-
level flow swinging around to the SSW, with the low- level
return flow to increase further out of the SSW through the
morning. Still, given readings low to mid 30s.

For today, the previously referenced midwest system will swing
east through this evening. A warm front will lift across the
region ahead of the system, with the sfc pressure gradient also
compressing as the system approaches. The breezy SW flow, in
tandem with increasing clouds ahead of the trailing cold front
will push highs into the upper 40s (NW) to lower 50s (SE). SSW
wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph are expected, mainly this afternoon.
CAMs continue to show some very shallow overrunning moisture
(285-290k sfcs) push across the region just ahead of the
crossing cold front. PW barely budges above 0.5-0.6" (near 75%
of normal for early Dec) this afternoon, and given rather
shallow moisture, especially in light of the W-SW flow aloft,
any precip would likely be a few sprinkles or light showers at
best. That said, will include a 20% PoP for the afternoon,
mainly north of a Farmville-Ashland-Salisbury line. Farther
south, it will be a dry frontal passage this evening with
lingering clouds and well-mixed BL keeping temperatures from
falling much lower than the low to mid 30s for most of the area,
mid to upper 30s along the immediate coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Cooler temperatures again Thursday in wake of the cold front.

- Potential for another clipper system Friday, with light wintry
  precipitation possible.

A large trough will be centered over much of the eastern half
of the United States to begin the day on Thursday, resulting in
a NW flow regime aloft. At the surface, another piece of the
Arctic high pressure slides across the region from the NW,
ushering in another modest cool down with continued mainly dry
conditions. High temperatures Thursday look to climb into the
low to mid 40s under a mainly sunny sky. The surface high builds
southeast across the Carolina coast on Friday ahead of the next
system.

Models continue to push another clipper system rounding the base
of the east coast trough through the area Friday. This clipper
system could potentially lead to another round of light snow
across the northern half of the area on Friday into Fri evening.
As is typical for the northern stream clipper systems, it is
cut off from Gulf moisture. Thus, the question remains will
there be enough moisture, and if so how much snow could
potentially fall? At this time, trends continue to point toward
a potential light snowfall. The latest 00z/10 ECMWF now shows
40 to 60% of 1" of snow across our northern/central tier of
counties, maxing out in the piedmont. For its part, the GEFS
trended upward also (20-40%), albeit the GEFS remains centered a
bit farther north. The CMC Ensemble lags behind both at
~10-30%, but is mainly out in the piedmont. Trends in the models
will continue to be monitored.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 230 AM EST Wednesday...

- Dry and relatively milder weather is expected Saturday, with
  another system bringing some potential precipitation again
  for Sunday.

- Another Arctic cold front crosses into the region on Sunday,
  ushering in a much colder airmass Sunday night and Monday.,
  Lows in the mid teens to mid 20s Sunday night and mid to upper
  30s are forecast for Monday. Some light precipitation is
  possible with the Arctic frontal passage.

- Temperatures quickly moderate from Tuesday through the middle
  of next week.

Strong troughing is expected to be over the area during the weekend
with NW flow aloft persisting. High pressure is expected to remain
over much of the area Saturday behind the Friday clipper system,
with dry weather conditions expected. Highs will be in the mid
to upper 40s across the north and low to middle 50s across the
south. Saturday night lows will be in the upper 20s to low 30s.

Models still bring a strong cold front through the region on
Sunday, with the local area getting another taste of Arctic air
behind the system Sunday night and Monday. Majority of guidance
remains dry with the front, though the EC-AIFS/EPS do show a low
chance of some light precipitation, some possibly wintry
depending on precise timing. At this time PoPs have been capped
at 20-30%. Decent agreement that SUnday night is the coldest of
the period, with early morning lows Monday AM to plummet into
middle to upper teens and low 20s along the coast, with chilly
highs Monday in the 30s. However, there is improving consensus
that cold high pressure quickly slides offshore Tue-Wed,
portending a gradual warmup for much of the mid to late week
period next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1205 PM EST Wednesday...

VFR conditions across area terminals early this afternoon.
Mainly mid to high clouds continue to move over the terminals
ahead of an approaching cold front. SW winds have became quite
breezy ahead of the front, with wind speeds around 15 kt with
gusts 20-25 kt (locally 30 kt along the coast). Additionally, a
strengthening low-level jet will result in southwesterly LLWS
this afternoon and evening across all terminals. There is also
a very low chance of an isolated shower just north of KRIC and
around the KSBY terminal as the front moves through late this
afternoon into the evening, but PoPs are <20%. VFR conditions
will prevail throughout tonight with gusty winds shifting out
of the WNW behind the front tonight.


Outlook: Gusty NW winds and VFR conditions are expected post-
frontal Thursday. An approaching disturbance could trigger some
light rain or snow Friday into Friday night (best chance for
snow across the far N), with intermittent flight restrictions
possible. Another cold front could bring light precip on
Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 230 AM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Winds increase today ahead of a cold front. Gale Warnings are
  in effect for coastal waters N of Cape Charles, SCAs are in
  effect elsewhere

- Another strong cold front potentially crosses the coast later
  Sunday.

High pressure is sliding offshore early this morning in advance of a
cold front that is set to cross through the region late this
evening. SW winds are starting to pick up as the pressure gradient
tightens between the front and exiting high pressure. Latest obs
show winds across the mid and upper bay, along with northern coastal
waters, already up to 20-25kt. Winds did start coming up a couple of
hours early, so did start a few of the SCAs early. Elsewhere, winds
are still 10-15kt. Buoy obs indicates that seas have temporarily
dropped to around 4ft. SCAs are in effect for all of the bay and
coastal water zones as of this writing with the rivers joining at
7am and the Currituck Sound this afternoon.

SW winds of 15-20kt continue through mid-morning, then increasing
further to 20-25kt for most zones and 25-30kt over northern coastal
waters by the early afternoon as the front reaches the Appalachian
region. Model guidance indicates that a 50kt+ LLJ moves in overhead
at about this time as well. Though the full extent of this shouldn`t
mix down to the surface, still expecting rather gusty conditions
this afternoon. The rivers/sound will gust to ~25kt, the bay and
southern coastal waters 30-35kt, and the northern coastal waters up
to 40kt. Gale Warnings go into effect for waters N of Parramore
Island mid morning, expanding down to Cape Charles in the early
afternoon. Seas increase back to 4-5ft early this morning with waves
in the bay at 2-3ft. By mid-afternoon, seas are forecast to increase
to 6-7ft in the northern zones, 3-5ft in southern waters. Waves will
be 3-4ft.

Winds diminish slightly late this evening as they turn to the W late
this evening, then to the NW late tonight. Expecting NW winds of 20-
25kt early tomorrow morning (10-15kt in the rivers). Then winds
gradually diminish through the day Thurs. Expecting generally sub-
SCA conditions Friday and through most of the weekend. A strong cold
front looks to cross the waters late in the weekend, bringing the
potential for strong NW winds into early next week.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for ANZ630>632-
     634-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
     ANZ635>637.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for ANZ638.
     Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ650-652.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ654.
     Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ654.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...HET/MAM
SHORT TERM...HET/MAM
LONG TERM...HET/MAM
AVIATION...HET/MAM
MARINE...AC