768
FXUS61 KAKQ 060720
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
320 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Seasonably warm and dry conditions continue through Tuesday
before a strong cold front crosses the area on Wednesday. This
will bring scattered showers Wednesday. Much cooler temperatures
arrive late this week behind the cold front. A coastal low may
develop off the Southeast coast this weekend, potentially
resulting in rain and breezy conditions for a portion of the
local area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 320 AM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

- Mild and dry conditions continue today.

- Patchy fog possible tonight.

An expansive high centered over the western north Atlantic extends
across our area this morning. This has resulted in mostly clear
skies and calm winds across the region. Ground fog has started to
develop this morning, with a few land-based observation sites
reporting degraded visibilities. The fog has not yet become
widespread or dense, so no fog products have been issued at this
time, but will continue to monitor for any further development.
Temperatures are in the 50s, with minimal dew point depressions.

High pressure offshore will the dominant feature across the region
today and tonight. Aloft, an upper ridge will be planted over the
Mid-Atlantic, which will help temperatures reach above the
climatological norm, peaking in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Skies
will be mostly sunny, with light winds and rain-free conditions
continuing. Tonight will bring another round of patchy fog to the
area and temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 AM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

- Continued mild and pleasant through Tuesday.

- Scattered showers are expected on Tuesday night into Wednesday
  as a strong cold front moves through.

An upper trough and associated surface front will approach the
region on Tuesday. As atmospheric moisture increases ahead of the
front during the day, clouds will develop from northwest to
southeast which will keep temperatures a degree or two lower than
today`s temperatures. Rain chances return to the forecast Tuesday
night, with the bulk of the rain moving through on Wednesday. Though
the front will be moving quickly through our area, confidence
continues to increase in most areas receiving around 0.5" of rain
with a swath of 0.5-0.75" possible. Additionally, can`t rule out a
few isolated storms, however, confidence is low. Have maintained a
slight chance for thunderstorms starting Tuesday night and lingering
through Wednesday afternoon. With the front moving through earlier,
temperatures on Wednesday will be lower, with highs in the lower 70s
for most of the area and mid-upper 70s for far SE VA/NE NC. High
pressure will build in behind the front, bringing in a drier airmass
and cooler temperatures. Cloud cover will wane from northwest to
southeast as the front moves further south away from the area
Wednesday night. Temperatures Wednesday night will plummet into the
mid-upper 50s across most of the forecast area, with 50s expected in
SE VA/NE NC

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 320 AM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

- Much cooler weather arrives Thursday and continues into the weekend.

- A coastal low is possible by this weekend and may bring rain
  and breezy conditions to the area.

Thursday will bring mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and below
normal temperatures in the 60s. We will likely see some of the
coldest temperatures of the season thus far Thursday night, with
overnight lows dropping into the lower to mid 40s for most of the
area, with 50s across far SE VA and coastal NE NC. It is not out of
the realm of possibilities that some areas in the piedmont could
drop as low as the upper 30s. The high across the Northeast will
gradually slide eastward into the western North Atlantic and the
airmass across our area will modify slightly Friday through Sunday.
Increasing cloud cover and potentially rain, especially across the
eastern portion of the forecast area, will help keep temperatures
below normal through the weekend.

The remains a lot of uncertainty in the extended forecast, with a
possible coastal low developing off the Carolinas this weekend.
Confidence is increasing that this low will develop, but the exact
track of the low is a little more uncertain as some guidance brings
it along our coast, while others have it displaced further offshore.
Pending the track of this coastal low, there is potential that we
could see widespread rainfall and breezy to windy conditions,
especially along the coast, this weekend. Have maintained chance
PoPs along the coast and slight chance PoPs inland, but we will
continue to monitor any model trends in the track and strength of
this developing low closely over the next few forecast cycles and
adjust the forecast as necessary.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 148 AM EDT Monday...

Conditions at a few terminals have already started to deteriorate as
fog and low stratus develops this morning. ECG and SBY currently
have TEMPOs in place, with all other terminals potentially
seeing fog over the next few hours. Have included mention of BR
in all TAFs, though confidence is lower at ORF and RIC, but
will continue to monitor all sites. This fog/low stratus should
burn off after sunrise, with clearing skies to follow. Winds
will be calm this morning, becoming southeasterly and increasing
to 4-8 knots by midday today.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected during the day through
Tuesday as high pressure remains over the region. Scattered showers
are expected on Wednesday along and ahead of a cold front.
Skies will clear out in the wake of the front Wednesday night
into Thursday as a drier airmass moves in.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 320 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Benign conditions today through Tuesday night, with a good chance
of at least solid SCA conditions from Wednesday night through at
least Thursday night with NE winds.

- SCA conditions (especially due to seas) likely continue from
Friday through next weekend.

- The rip current risk is moderate at all beaches today.

Early this morning, high pressure is centered offshore and extends
back into the local waters. Winds are light (~5 knots) and generally
out of the SE. Seas range from 3 to 4 ft and waves in the Bay 1 to 2
ft.

Benign marine conditions continue through today and tonight with
winds ~10 kt as the surface high slowly shifts further offshore.
Winds become southerly and increase to 10-15 kt by late Tuesday well
in advance of an approaching cold front. Winds increase further to
~15 kts across the northern waters Tuesday night into early
Wednesday, with marginal SCA possible over the northern Bay. The
strong cold front approaches and crosses the waters Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday evening. Winds become N-NE at 20-25 kt by
Wednesday evening-night with frequent gusts to 30 kt expected. Winds
become more northeasterly on Thursday and remain elevated with
frequent gusts of ~30 kt expected throughout the day. While a period
of low-end gale gusts is also possible during this time,
probabilities remain low ~15% for gale gusts. Seas continue to
subside, and are expected to average 2-3 ft today through Tuesday.
Seas quickly build back to 5-8 ft by Thursday behind the front.
While winds may diminish a bit by Friday-Friday night, seas likely
remain elevated. The forecast becomes much more uncertain as we head
into the weekend as low pressure may develop offshore. Regardless,
winds may pick back up with SCA conditions likely continuing.

Rip Currents: The rip current risk gradually decreases early this
week. Hazardous surf conditions are expected once again by Wed
night/Thu due to short period large breaking waves.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 320 AM EDT Monday...

No coastal flooding is expected through Wednesday night. Given the
very high astronomical tides combined with moderately strong NE
winds, at least minor flooding is possible in areas adjacent to the
lower Ches Bay/tidal James on Thursday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...NB
SHORT TERM...RMM/NB
LONG TERM...NB
AVIATION...HET/NB
MARINE...AJB/ERI
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ