696
FXUS61 KAKQ 072013
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
313 PM EST Fri Nov 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front slides across the Mid-Atlantic region tonight
into early Saturday morning. A warm front lifts across the area
early Sunday, followed by a strong cold front Sunday night.
This will bring a chance of showers Sunday into Sunday evening.
Much colder temperatures arrive early next week in the wake of
the cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 315 PM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- A few showers are possible later tonight as a cold front
  moves through the region.

An upper trough is digging across the upper Midwest and Great
Lakes this afternoon. This is resulting in WSW flow aloft across
the Mid-Atlantic region. At the surface, high pressure is
centered offshore, with low pressure over the Great Lakes and a
cold front trailing back into the Ohio Valley. There is an
additional weak low off the Carolina coast that is producing
clouds across eastern NC, and a band of showers S of Cape
Lookout, NC. Partly to mostly sunny across much of the local
area with temperatures in the mid 60s to around 70F, and a S
wind of 10-15 mph occasionally gusting to ~20 mph.

The weak low off the Carolina coast will slide NE through the late
aftn and early evening hours bringing some clouds to far SE VA and
NE NC. However, most of the showers should remain offshore.
Otherwise, expect increasing clouds ahead of the cold front. Warmer
tonight with lows ranging through the 50s due to an increase in
cloud cover and southerly flow ahead of the cold front. Moisture
diminishes as the front arrives, with a 40-50% chc of showers after
midnight N and NW of the RIC metro diminishing to ~30% as it shifts
toward the Northern Neck and lower MD Eastern Shore toward sunrise
Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 PM EST Friday...

Key Message:

- Dry Saturday afternoon behind a weak cold frontal passage with
  temperatures reach the lower 70s.

- Remaining warm Sunday, becoming breezy, with a chance of
  showers ahead of a strong cold front.

There will be little to no CAA behind the cold front Saturday.
Therefore, highs Saturday will be above seasonal averages
ranging from the upper 60s over the Eastern Shore, to the lower
and locally mid 70s inland W and SW of the Ches. Bay. Increasing
clouds Saturday night as high pressure moves offshore and as a
warm front approaches from the southwest. There is a chc of
showers late across the southern tier of the area. Low
temperatures range from mid 40s NW to mid 50s SE.

Low pressure tracks NE across the eastern Great Lakes Sunday,
which will drag the warm front through the area Sunday morning.
This will bring some showers. Thunder chances have been tempered
for this time period as forecast soundings depict little to no
instability. A strong cold front approaches from the W Sunday
afternoon and moves through Sunday evening. Scattered showers
are expected to accompany the front Sunday afternoon and into
the evening, especially toward the coast. A few rumbles of
thunder are possible given strong kinematics. Ahead of the
front, Sunday`s high temperatures will be warm in the lower to
mid 70s, with upper 70s to near 80F possible in NE NC near the
Albemarle Sound. Lows Sunday night drop into the upper 30s NW to
mid 40s SE as cooler drier air arrives from the NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 315 PM EST Friday...

Key Message:

- Behind a strong front, sharply colder temperatures look to be
  on the horizon for early next week, with highs in the upper
  40s to low 50s and a hard freeze likely inland Monday night
  and possibly Tuesday as well.

- Temperatures moderate for the middle to end of next week.

A significant pattern change is expected early next week. Dry
and much colder temperatures arrive Monday and Tuesday as a
full-latitude upper-level trough builds across the eastern half
of the CONUS. 850mb temperatures may drop to as low as -10C by
Tuesday morning as a frigid Canadian airmass spills south into
the region. Confidence is high that this system will bring the
coldest air of the season across the local area. Highs on Monday
are expected to be in the lower 50s with upper 40s on Tuesday
(despite abundant sunshine on Tuesday). Widespread below
freezing temperatures in the upper 20s to lower 30s will likely
occur across the majority of the local area Monday night. 12z/07
EPS and GEFS show a few members with possible light rain/snow
showers or sprinkles/flurries with lingering precip Monday
night. Confidence remains low at this time given the amount of
dry air.

The trough that brings the cold temperatures will quickly lift
away from the area Tuesday, allowing seasonal temperatures to
return Wednesday and Thursday with highs in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 100 PM EST Friday...

High pressure is centered offshore as of 18z, with an area of
weak low pressure off the Carolina coast. VFR with a SSW wind of
8-12kt, with occasional gusts to ~20kt at RIC and SBY. The area
of low pressure slides NE off the Carolina coast through 00z.
This will bring some mid level clouds to ECG, ORF, and PHF, with
a very minimal chc (< 20%) of showers at ECG. Otherwise, a cold
front approaches from the NW tonight, and crosses the area late
tonight into early Saturday morning. This will bring increasing
clouds, and a 30-40% chc of showers from RIC to SBY. VFR
conditions are expected to prevail with a southerly wind ~10kt.
A period of LLWS is possible at RIC and SBY a few hours either
side of 06z. The cold front pushes offshore Saturday morning.
Any lingering cloud cover is expected to clear Saturday morning
with VFR conditions prevailing. A WNW wind of 5-10kt should
become light and variable by late aftn.

A warm front is expected to lift across the area early Sunday.
This will bring a chc of showers with brief sub-VFR conditions
possible. A stronger cold front will cross the region later
Sunday aftn and evening bringing a chc of showers, with a few
tstms possible across SE VA and NE NC. Dry, VFR, and breezy
Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 240 PM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- Southerly winds increase later this afternoon into tonight as
  a mainly dry cold front approaches the region. SCAs are in
  effect for the Ocean N of Cape Charles and Bay N of Windmill
  Point.

- A strong cold front impacts the region Sunday night into
  Monday, with elevated winds and seas extending expected
  Monday into the middle of next week.

Afternoon analysis shows high pressure well offshore with a cold
front extending through the Great Lakes and OH Valley. Southerly
winds have increased to 10-15 kt ahead of this front, with gusts
approaching 20 kt in the northern coastal waters and
middle-upper Chesapeake Bay. Small Craft Advisories are
currently in effect for the bay N of Windmill Pt. Wind speeds
should increase a few more knots to 15-25 kt later this evening
into tonight as the cold front approaches. Small Craft
Advisories go into effect for the coastal waters N of Cape
Charles later this evening. Overall, hi-res model guidance has
trended quite pessimistic with these higher winds, though still
expect occasional gusts to around 25 kt for zones in the
advisory. Behind the front, winds will again diminish and become
light and variable on Saturday. Yet another cold front is
expected to approach the area Sunday with an increase in
southerly winds. The front then abruptly pushes through the
waters late Sunday night into Monday morning. A strong northward
surge in winds is anticipated along the initial cold frontal
passage in the ~06z/1 AM timeframe Monday morning, with strong
SCAs likely and brief gusts >34 kt possible. SCA- level winds
linger through most of Monday before a stronger push of cold air
advection arrives Monday night into Tuesday. Given the degree
of airmass change (850 mb temps dropping to -8 to -10 C) over
still-relatively mild waters, Gale conditions appear
increasingly likely. The highest probs are on the ocean, but are
also possible on the Chesapeake Bay. Gale Watches may be issued as
soon as Saturday (depending on model trends). Winds turn west
and then southwest by the midweek period, potentially remaining
at or above SCA thresholds.

Seas increase to 3 to 6 feet tonight into Saturday morning, highest
N. In the bay, waves increase to 2-3 ft. A benign sea state
then returns later Saturday and Sunday, before increasing again
later Sunday and remaining elevated through most of next week.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for ANZ630.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EST
     Saturday for ANZ631.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for ANZ650-652-
     654.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJZ/KMC
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/KMC
LONG TERM...AJZ/KMC
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJB/SW