063
FXUS61 KALY 131148
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
648 AM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

.UPDATE...
As of 6:45 AM EST...Quick update this morning to increase PoPs
further into the Capital District and Berkshires where the lake
effect band of rain and rain/snow showers is located. Still
expecting this band to drop southwards later this morning, but
have increased PoPs given impressive inland extent so far this
morning. Otherwise, bumped up temperatures a degree or two for
most of the region due to persistent overnight cloud cover. The
exception is across western CT and the far southern Taconics
where there was more clearing which allowed temperatures to drop
into the low to mid 30s. While minor, temperature adjustments
did result in more rain or rain/snow mix in the forecast. Will
continue to message that most of the (light) snow accumulation
today will be across the higher elevations, with rain for the
valley areas. Otherwise, previous forecast remains on track with
more details below...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Lake effect rain/snow showers and cool temperatures
continue today and Friday, although lake effect precipitation will
not be as widespread on Friday. Drier weather briefly returns
Saturday, but a low pressure system tracking to our north will bring
valley rain and high-elevation wintry mix changing to rain Saturday
night and Sunday. Additional lake effect snow showers will be
possible behind this storm early next week with another cold
airmass moving over the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Message:

- Additional lake effect rain/snow showers expected today, with
light accumulations of up to 1-3" in the higher elevations west and
south of the Capital District.

Discussion:
A sfc low tracking to our north has weakened into an open
wave/pressure trough. Behind this system a long fetch of low-
level NW flow has developed, which is resulting in a band of
lake effect rain/snow showers extending down the Mohawk Valley,
through the Capital District, and into the Berkshires. We are
also seeing fairly widespread lake effect clouds, although there
are some breaks outside of this main band of showers. Given the
widespread cloud cover, temperatures are running several
degrees warmer than NBM guidance, so we bumped up current temps
and forecast overnight lows (30s for most areas). Given these
warm temperatures, we will see more rain than snow with the lake
effect, at least for valley areas during the overnight period.

By mid-morning, winds shifting slightly more towards the North
will result in the lake band dropping south from the Mohawk
Valley and Capital District into the Schoharie Valley and
Catskills. With the passage of a weak cold frontal passage, 850
mb temps over the lakes drop to around -5C today. Lake Ontario water
temps are around +12C, so there will be plenty of instability.
Inversion heights above 700 mb and 25-30 kt winds at 850 mb will all
support an inland extent of the lake band well into our forecast
area, which will be further enhanced by yet another upper shortwave
tracking through the mean upper trough. There will also be some
upslope enhancement resulting in rain/snow showers into Taconics and
the higher terrain of western New England today. Given these
signals, we increase PoPs and qpf amounts from the NBM closer to the
namnest/RGEM. However, temperatures outside of the high terrain
still look to be warm enough to support mainly rain showers with
this lake effect through much of the day today. The higher
elevations of far southwest Herkimer County and the Catskills could
see an additional 1-3" of snow, however. High temperatures will
range from 30s in the higher elevations to 40s for the valleys. It
will also be fairly breezy today, especially in the afternoon, with
northwest wind gusts of up to 25 kt. The highest gusts will be
mainly south of I-90, and will be highest for areas that see any
breaks of sun to help promote BL mixing.

Tonight and Friday...Lake effect rain/snow showers continue, but
winds veer more to the north and weaken as a surface high builds
into the Great Lakes. Inversion heights also lower as we see
increases subsidence, so this will help to result in more multi-
bands and limit the in land extent of the lake effect. Thus,
coverage of lake effect precip will diminish through Thursday night
and Friday, with only very minor additional accumulations expected.
A secondary cold front will move through the region Thursday night
and we are expecting more breaks in the clouds compared to tonight,
so lows are expected to be mainly in the 20s to low 30s. Friday will
still feature continued low-level cold advection, so highs will
actually end up a degree or two cooler than on Thursday.

Friday night and Saturday...The surface high builds overhead, as
upper ridging moves from the Great Lakes over NY. This will
promote subsidence and generally dry conditions, with more
clearing of the lake effect clouds as well. Conditions look
favorable for radiational cooling Friday night, with lows
currently expected to drop into the 10s to mid 20s. Areas with
snow on the ground will likely see temperatures end up at least
a couple degrees below the current forecast. Saturday will see
temperatures rebound into the 30s (mountains) to 40s (valleys).
While the day starts off clear, mid and high clouds will begin
to increase through the afternoon ahead of our next weather
system. A few rain/snow showers can`t be ruled out after sunset
for the ADKs and western Mohawk Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Messages:

- High confidence in below normal temps continues through the
  long term period.

- High confidence in an other storm system bringing widespread
  precipitation to the region Saturday night into Sunday. There
  remains a 20-50% chance for at least a glaze of ice in the
  Adirondacks and upper Hudson Valley Saturday night into
  Sunday.

Discussion:
A potent upper shortwave will be tracking from southern Canada
into northern New England where it will close off into an upper
low to start the long term period. At the surface, this will
result in a deepening low pressure system tracking just north of
our region Saturday night into Sunday. While most areas will see
plain rain with this system, the warm advection/overrunning
setup with the warm front does support a wintry mix (mainly
freezing rain) across portions of the ADKs, southern Greens, and
possibly the upper Hudson or northern CT River Valleys. Freezing
rain for these areas would transition to plain rain Sunday
morning as the warm front lifts north. So, will message that
slippery travel conditions will be possible for these areas
Saturday night into Sunday morning. There is still some
uncertainty in how progressive this system will be, and overall
trends have been faster. Therefore, current forecast now shows
a drying trend for much of the region as we head through the day
Sunday. Highs Sunday will reach the 40s for most areas with
some 50s for valley areas south of I-90, although the warmth
will be short- lived as the system`s cold front tracks through
the region Sunday afternoon/evening, allowing temperatures to
drop back into the 20s for most areas Sunday night.

With a much colder airmass moving in behind this system, we will
once again see some additional lake effect snow Sunday night
into Monday. Still too early to determine exactly where any
lake bands will set up, but highest chance for additional
accumulating snow will be for the western ADKs, western Mohawk
Valley, and possibly northern Catskills. Highs Monday will be
back below normal with 30s to low 40s for most areas. It will also
become quite breezy Sunday night and Monday with the sfc low
continuing to deepen as it departs to our E/NE. There are signals
that Tuesday into Wednesday should be drier (but still seasonably
chilly) as high pressure building in from the west helps to shut
down the lake effect snow.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 12Z Friday...Continued westerly flow will maintain our lake
enhanced and upslope rain showers down the Mohawk Valley into
western New England into this morning. Therefore, we continue to
show rain showers and MVFR cigs at PSF through about 20 UTC with
even a TEMPO group for IFR cigs from 12-16 UTC this morning as a
more organize band develops. While ALB has remained VFR thus far,
continued rain showers this morning could result in periodic MVFR
cigs so we included a TEMPO group 12-16 UTC. GFL and POU looks to
remain mainly north and south of the lake enhanced showers/clouds
through early afternoon so maintained VFR. However, as winds veer to
the west-northwest late this afternoon into early this evening, the
lake band should shift southward. Therefore, we introduce showers to
POU and lowered cigs to low end VFR early this evening while show
slight improvements at ALB and PSF.

West-southwesterly winds remain 5-9 KT through 14-15 UTC this
morning before winds become more westerly and turn gusty. Sustained
winds reach 5-12kts at all terminals with gusts up to 20-25 KTS
through 21-22 UTC. Strongest winds likely at POU where cigs will be
higher, promoting deeper boundary layer mixing. Winds then gradually
weaken by 22-23 UTC as the boundary layer decouples after sunset but
sustained winds remain 5-10kts through the end of the TAF
period.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite RA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely RA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...SHSN.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA...SHSN.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...24/35
SYNOPSIS...35
SHORT TERM...35
LONG TERM...35
AVIATION...31