184
FXUS61 KALY 261755
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1255 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly cloudy but milder weather is expected today along with
isolated to scattered rain showers. A cold front crosses the
region tonight bringing blustery and colder weather for the
remainder of the week along with lake effect snow showers. Heavy
snow accumulations are expected across portions of the
Adirondacks and possibly the Mohawk Valley. Drier weather
returns by Saturday with high pressure returning before another
system brings mixed rain and snow on Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

- A period of lake effect snow is expected later Thursday
  through Friday across portions of the Adirondacks and Mohawk
  Valley. Snowfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches are expected in
  the most persistent lake effect bands.

- A Lake Effect Snow Warning is in effect for Northern Herkimer
  and Hamilton County from Thursday afternoon into Friday night.
  A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for Southern Herkimer
  County from Thursday Afternoon into Saturday Morning.

- Wind gusts between 30 and 40 mph on Thursday and Friday could
  lead to areas of blowing and drifting snow.

Discussion:

A warm front is lifting northward across the region this
morning. The steadiest rain has departed to the east but
favorable upper level lift within the warm sector will support
additional isolated to scattered showers through this afternoon.
Later this afternoon into the evening hours, a cold front will
approach from the west. Along with front, another area of rain
showers will cross parts of the area. There could be some brief
periods of more moderate rain with this activity. Pending
surface temperatures, precipitation could change over to snow
across parts of the southwest Adirondacks before ending. Despite
a mostly cloudy day, temperatures should reach the 50s to lower
60s for many areas, except in the upper 40s to around 50 across
the Adirondacks, which is about 10-15 degrees above normal high
temperatures for late November.

As the front crosses, upper level troughing builds into the
region for the remainder of the week with a nearly vertically
stacked low pressure system positioned across Quebec. Moist,
cyclonic flow and the arrival of colder air will support the
development of lake effect snow. The wind flow will start out
southwesterly which will result in mostly dry weather to start
Thanksgiving Day with bands oriented west of our CWA. By the
afternoon, the flow will become more west to west-southwesterly
which will shift the bands slightly south and eastward into
parts of the Adirondacks. Some fragments of the lake effect
bands off Erie could reach parts of the Mohawk Valley by the
afternoon hours as well. By Thursday night into Friday, the
passage of an upper level shortwave will shift the winds to a
more west-northwest to northwesterly direction for Friday. This
will shift the band southward and become oriented across
portions of the Mohawk Valley and eastern Catskills. Lake effect
snow across the Adirondacks will then transition to upslope
snow showers for Friday. There is some uncertainty with the
overall placement of the Lake Ontario snow band on Friday. Two
scenarios are in play which include the snow band oriented right
over the NY Thruway corridor or just to the south. Where the
band does set up, additional moderate to heavy snowfall
accumulations are likely to occur due to the presence of
moderate lake induced instability and a multi-lake connection
extending all the way back to Lake Superior. Fragments of the
snow band will likely extend into portions of the Hudson Valley
with upslope snow showers across the southern Greens and
Berkshires. High pressure building into the region on Saturday
will gradually shut off the lake effect response.

In the most persistent lake effect bands, 6-12 inches of snow is
expected. Confidence in these amounts was high enough to upgrade
Northern Herkimer and Hamilton Counties to a Lake Effect Snow
warning on this shift, plus with the lake effect snow starting
on Thursday. Due to decreased confidence on the overall
orientation of the snow band across the Mohawk Valley and likely
not beginning until early Friday, have maintained the Winter
Storm Watch for Southern Herkimer County. Where the band does
sets up, warning level snowfall is likely to fall. Pending the
orientation of the snow band, additional Winter Weather
headlines may be needed later in time for Fulton, Montgomery
and/or Schoharie counties.

Outside of the lake-effect it will be blustery and colder with
highs in the lower 30s to lower 40s on Thanksgiving Day and
upper 20s to upper 30s on Friday. Wind gusts between 30-40 mph
later this week (strongest on Friday) will add to the chill in
the air and also lead to areas of blowing and drifting snow.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As mentioned above, surface high pressure and weak upper level
ridging builds over the region to start the weekend. This will
shut off the lake effect snow and result in a dry start to the
weekend. It will remain on the chilly side with highs only in
the mid-20s to upper 30s, but there will be less wind compared
to the previous two days. Another low pressure system tracking
across the Great Lakes will bring another round of precipitation
for Sunday. With temperatures rebounding into the 30s and 40s,
mixed rain and snow is expected with this system. Snow would be
favored for higher elevations. The cold front associated with
this systems passes through by late Sunday which could lead to a
mainly dry start to next week with high pressure returning.
However, another wave of low pressure may form along the front
bringing the potential for additional precipitation by Tuesday
or Wednesday of next week, pending the overall timing and track
of this system.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18z Thursday...MVFR to IFR and even patchy LIFR
conditions prevail across the TAF sites this afternoon as ample
low-level moisture sits beneath an inversion. Some improvements
can be anticipated here over the next couple of hours however,
as visible satellite imagery shows some patchy clearing
especially in downsloped areas near ALB and PSF. TEMPO groups
were added to the TAFs accordingly.

Patchy clearing won`t be long lasting this afternoon as clouds
race ahead of a potent incoming cold front and upper-level
disturbance. A batch of rain showers is anticipated as a result
of these features as well later this evening, forcing the return
to MVFR to IFR conditions almost everywhere. However, rapidly
drying air behind the front should translate to rapid
improvements in ceiling height behind the showers. Therefore,
VFR conditions, once realized late tonight, should remain in
place through much of the remainder of the 18z TAF period.

Winds will begin the period out of the south to southwest a
light speeds under 10 kt. However, the passage of the cold front
will force the rapid veer to the west to northwest through the
end of the period. At this point, winds will become breezy with
sustained speeds reaching 8 to 12 kt with paired gusts of 15 to
25 kt.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHSN.
Friday: High Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 38 kts. Likely SHSN.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHSN.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...SHSN.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...SHSN.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Lake Effect Snow Warning from 4 PM Thursday to 1 AM EST
     Saturday for NYZ032-033.
     Winter Storm Watch from Thursday afternoon through Saturday
     morning for NYZ038.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...33
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...33
AVIATION...37