323
FXUS61 KALY 161913
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
213 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

.UPDATE...
The Wind Advisory has been expanded and now includes portions
of the Mohawk Valley, Capital District, Mid-Hudson Valley,
Catskills, Berkshires and Litchfield Hills through 100 AM
Monday. Stronger gusts have been observed in rain showers and in
downslope portions of the Hudson Valley, with KPOU recently
gusting to 51 MPH. Expect strong winds to persist through this
evening before gradually subsiding overnight.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Windy and cold conditions are expected for most today into
Monday, along with lake effect and upslope snow showers. The
heaviest snows are expected across the western and southern
Adirondacks and southern Greens, where winter weather headlines
are in effect. High pressure brings dry and milder conditions
for the middle of the week, with our next chance of
precipitation arriving for the end of the work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Messages:

- Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories in effect
  through Monday evening for the western and southern Adirondacks and
  southern Greens given high confidence for lake effect/upslope snow
  ranging from 6 to 14 inches. The combination of moderate to heavy
  snow and gusty winds could lead to reduced visibility and hazardous
  travel.

- Wind Advisory in effect for the Catskills, western portions of the
  Hudson Valley and Berkshire County MA through 100 AM for wind gusts
  around 45 to 50 MPH.

Discussion:

As of 130 PM, a surface low was centered across eastern Maine, with
a strong cold front just off shore of eastern New England. Across
eastern New York and western New England, west to northwest flow was
in place with rain/snow showers across the Catskills, Mohawk Valley
and southern Greens due to a combination of lake effect and upslope
flow. Winds have increased through the morning with stronger vertical
mixing, with gusts in the last hour ranging from 30-45 MPH (highest
value of 43 MPH at KPSF). Temperatures were in the 40s, with pockets
of 50 mainly in the Mid-Hudson Valley.

Through Monday evening, gusty northwest winds will continue to
usher in a cold air mass across the region, with overnight lows
forecast to drop into the 20s areawide (mid to upper teens in
higher elevations). Rain/snow showers will transition over to
snow this afternoon with the CAA, and will continue mainly
across the Adirondacks, western Mohawk Valley, Catskills and
southern Greens before beginning to taper off Monday afternoon
and evening. A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for
northern Herkimer County, with a Winter Weather Advisory for
Hamilton County, due to the effects of lake effect snow. The
overall forecast in terns of expected amounts has not changed
much with this package, with storm totals of around 7-14 inches
mainly near and north of Route 28 in northern Herkimer County,
and 6-9 inches across northwestern Hamilton County through
Monday evening. To the east, a Winter Weather Advisory continues
for Bennington and western Windham counties in southern Vermont
due to the effects of upslope snow showers. The highest totals
will remain at or above 2500 ft with around 7-9 inches expected,
with lesser amounts at lower elevations. Please see the latest
winter weather products for additional details.

In addition to the snow, breezy northwest winds are expected across
the region through tonight with gusts mainly in the 30-45 MPH range.
Decided to issue a Wind Advisory focused mainly in the higher
elevations of the Catskills, western Mid-Hudson Valley and
Berkshires where wind gusts have a higher probability (60-80%) of
reaching or exceeding criteria based on latest guidance. Confidence
of needing a wind advisory elsewhere remains low at this time,
mainly due to the effects of cloud cover and rain/snow showers
limiting mixing depth height and taking advantage of low-level winds
around 45-50 kts.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Message:

- Next chance for widespread precipitation looks to hold off
  until Friday into Saturday. Low confidence for brief wintry
  mix at the onset before confidence increases for mainly plain
  rain for most of the region.

Discussion:

High pressure will slowly begin to build into the region from the
mid-Mississippi River and Ohio River Valleys early in the period,
with the departing surface low will deepening in the Nova Scotia
vicinity Monday night. As a result, it will remain breezy for most
Monday night into early Tuesday with gusts around 20-35 MPH before
subsiding beginning Tuesday night. Leftover snow showers in the lake
effect/upslope regions will also begin to wind down as flow switches
more northerly and weakens through the daytime Monday. Temperatures
will be well below normal Monday with highs ranging from the mid 20s
(terrain) to near 40 (valleys), though most will likely not see 40
during the day. Combined with the gusty winds, it will feel even
chiller with apparent Ts mainly in the 20s. Lows Monday night will
be similar to tonight, dropping into the teens to upper 20s.

Tuesday through Thursday should feature mainly dry conditions as
high pressure builds overnight. Temperatures will remain near to
slightly below normal. It will begin to trend milder for Friday as
our next disturbance approaches from the Great Lakes. There remains
discrepancies on the overall track of the incoming sfc low but there
is low to moderate confidence in widespread precipitation
overspreading the region Friday into Saturday. Depending on the
timing and the amount of warm air ahead of the system, the initial
onset of precipitation could feature brief wintry mix before
transitioning to plain rain, but not enough confidence to include
wintry mix in the forecast at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
We start the TAF period with a mix of VFR and MVFR conditions as
lake effect rain/snow showers continue to move through this
afternoon and early evening. Confidence is highest for KPOU to stay
VFR through the TAF period. For KPSF, KALB, and KGFL, a mix of
VFR/MVFR continues through the 17/00z timeframe when a mix of
MVFR/IFR conditions in low ceilings could occur through the early
morning hours. Then a mix of MVFR/VFR returns after 12z.

West to northwest winds continue to range between 10 and 20 knots
through the TAF period with gusts ranging between 25 and 35 knots.
The strongest wind gusts that occur over 35 knots is at KPSF now
through 20-21z where wind gusts have been observed between 33 and 37
knots.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Friday: High Operational Impact. Definite RA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for CTZ001-013.
NY...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for NYZ038>040-047>054-
     058>061-063>066-082.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Monday for NYZ032.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for NYZ033.
MA...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for MAZ001-025.
VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for VTZ013-014.

&&

$$

UPDATE...17
SYNOPSIS...17
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM...17/31
AVIATION...05