727
FXUS61 KALY 281935
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
235 PM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Lake effect snow will continue to impact the Mohawk
Valley, Capital Region, northern Catskills, Taconics, southern
Vermont and the Berkshires into tonight before tapering overnight.
High pressure will bring cold and drier conditions for Saturday.
A low pressure system passing well west of the region will bring
snow mixed with rain for Sunday with another system bringing
potentially a widespread snowfall Tuesday into Tuesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

- A period of lake effect snow will continue across the Mohawk
  Valley, Northern Catskills, Capital District, northern
  Taconics and parts of western New England into tonight.
  Snowfall amounts of 4 to 12 inches are expected in the most
  persistent lake effect bands, mainly across the Mohawk Valley.

- A Lake Effect Snow Warning remains in effect for Herkimer and
  Hamilton Counties with Winter Weather Advisories for Fulton,
  Montgomery, Schoharie, eastern Rensselaer and northern
  Berkshire counties.

- Wind gusts between 30 and 40 mph today could lead to some
  blowing and drifting snow.

- A low pressure system will bring a moderate snowfall across
  the southwest Adirondacks for additional winter head lines in
  the future

Discussion:

As of 235 PM EST...Low pressure continues to move northeast
across eastern Quebec this afternoon with a cold front crossing
the region. Cyclonic flow persists in the broad mid and upper
level trough over eastern Canada and the Northeast. Multiple
lake effect bands continue to impact the forecast area. The
northern most band was more prolific early on moving across the
Saratoga Region into Washington County and southern VT. That has
weakened and the southern band along and near I-90 in the
Mohawk Valley and Capital Region is getting better organized, as
it was more fragmented early on with the sfc trough/cold front
moving through. A well established multi-lake connection
continues across Lake Superior, Georgian Bay and Lake Ontario
heading into tonight. Conditional instability is present with
west to northwest flow setting up and less shear. We are
expecting several more hours of lake effect and upslope snow
showers/embedded squalls into tonight or prior to midnight. In
some of the narrow streamers expect snowfall rates of 1-2"/hr
with near whiteout conditions. Several special weather
statements have been issued on the lake effect snow showers and
bands with a more enhanced band impacting the northern Capital
Region this afternoon and into the northern Taconics and
Berkshires. All headlines remain up at this time with the Winter
Wx Advisory for the Rensselaer Plateau and northern Berkshires
going until 10 pm. The orographic enhancement should produce
some areas of 2-5" of snow. Though blowing snow will be an issue
with gusts 30-40 mph noted in the NYS mesonet and METAR
observations.

The headlines go to 1 am and 7 am for the southern/western
Adirondacks, the west-central Mohawk Valley and the northern
Catskills where 4-12" are possible. The higher totals will be in
the heavier lake bands. It should be noted east of the
Fulton/Montgomery/Schoharie Advisories 1-4" may occur especially
north and west of Albany...with 1-2" in the Tri Cities. The
southern Greens may get 2-4". The low-level flow will veer to
the northwest overnight and the extension into the area will
weaken. Additional snow showers will persist after midnight for
the northern Catskills, western Adirondacks and western Mohawk
Valley, as the low-level inversion will continue to lower
reducing the multi-bands by Sat night morning. It will be
blustery into tonight with winds 10-20 mph with gusts 25-40 with
a weakening of the winds well overnight. Lows will be in the 20s
with some teens over the Adirondacks Park and southern Greens.

Some lingering snow showers and flurries may impact the western
Mohawk Valley and Schoharie County after sunrise but high
pressure will build in with fair and dry weather with partly to
mostly sunny conditions due to the subsidence with the
anticyclone. It will still be breezy early on, as max temps will
run about 5-10 degrees below normal with mid 30s to lower 40s
readings in the valleys and upper 20s to mid 30s over the hills
and mtns. Clouds increase quickly Sat night, as high pressure
moves east of the New England Coast. Some light snow may break
out from southwest to northeast in advance of a warm front and
low pressure moving across the Midwest into the central Great
Lakes Region. Lows fall back into the mid and upper teens over
the mtns and 20s over the rest of the forecast.

The isentropic lift increases across the region on Sunday with
periods of snow transitioning to rain in the valleys and east of
the Hudson River Valley. The favored south to southwest flow off
the southwest Adirondacks may continue periods of snow through
the day with light to moderate accumulations possibly in the
3-6" range and a Winter Weather Advisory may be needed. The
southern Greens could also see 2-4". Most other locations will
get a slushy coating to an inch before a rain transition. The
southerly winds increase to 10-20 mph. Latest 24-hr NBM
probabilities for > 4" of snow by 7 pm Sunday are 30 and 75
percent. A shadowing or downsloping effect off the northern
Catskills/Helderbergs may reduce the QPF/pcpn in the Mohawk
Valley and Capital Region. Highs will be in 40-45F range in the
valleys on Sunday and 30s over the hills and mtns. The cold
front moves through early Sunday evening with scattered snow
showers returning with a brief lake effect connection with light
snow accums. It will become breezy and colder again with lows
25-30F in the valleys and teens to lower/mid 20s over the higher
terrain. Snow accums look light Sunday night with an inch or
two or less west/northwest of the Capital Region and Hudson
River Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Message:

- A low pressure system tracking south and east of the region
  Tue into Wed morning may bring a widespread snowfall with
  latest NBM probs > 4" at 30 to 60 percent.

Discussion...

Lake effect and upslope snow showers should cease early on
Monday with additional light snow accums. High pressure will
briefly build in with fair and dry weather into Monday night.
Attention shifts to developing low pressure over lower MS River
Valley and Southeast. This southern stream disturbance will
attempt to interact and phase with a northern disturbance moving
out of the Central Plains into the Midwest. Most of Monday night
will remain dry though some light snow may move in
southwest/west of the Capital District prior to daybreak. Highs
will be about 10 degrees below normal with 20s to mid 30s across
most of the region and lows in the teens to lower 20s with
single digits over the southern Dacks.

Tue-Tue night may be an impactful period depending on the track
and evolution of the developing low pressure system moving
north/northeast from the Mid Atlantic States. The latest NBM
supports 30-60% probs of >4" of snow in 24 hrs by 7 am Wed;
25-40% probs >6" in the same time frame for eastern NY and
western New England. The ensemble clusters show a few
possibilities with a southern track giving the forecast area a
glancing blow with a few inches of snow like the latest 12Z EC,
while another cluster favors a favorable track closer the Long
Island southern New England with a moderate to heavy snowfall
like the latest 3 runs of the GFS with a heavy accum of several
inches through the Capital Region, northern Catskills and
southern VT in the N/NW quadrant of the wave. We have likely
PoPs in the 55-70% range for snow Tue-Tue night. It looks to be
sufficiently cold for snow to be the predominate ptype. Highs
would be in the mid 20s to mid 30s...and lows and the teens in
the lower/mid 20s. The system is an open wave an fast mover and
should be east of the region by late Wed morning.

High pressure attempts to build in for Wed with mainly cold and
dry weather. Another northern stream system approaches for Wed
night and Thu with a chance of snow showers. The snow showers
and flurries diminish late Thu with high pressure attempting to
build in for Fri. Overall, temps look colder than normal in
the mid to latter portion of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18Z Saturday...Lake effect snow bands have been
drifting in and out of terminal boundaries throughout the
morning and into early this afternoon, forcing disruptions to
favored flying conditions. METAR observations have indicated
MVFR to IFR conditions within the heaviest bands and such
conditions are anticipated to continue for brief periods of time
into tonight.

Outside of a stray, light snow shower, KGFL should not see any more
impacts due to lake effect snow bands and will subsequently maintain
VFR conditions through the remainder of the 18z TAF cycle. KALB and
KPSF, based on latest radar trends and model guidance, will see some
IFR conditions through the afternoon and into early this evening due
to more persistent lake effect snow bands that will begin to shift
farther south and east. KPOU should, like KGFL, also remain
precipitation free through the 18z cycle, yielding a persistence of
VFR conditions. The lake effect bands that will impact KALB and KPSF
this afternoon are anticipated to sink farther south and rescind to
the west tonight, such that VFR conditions will be returned for
these sites as well.

Winds will remain gusty out of the west to northwest through the
entirety of the 18z TAF period with sustained speeds ranging from
about 10 to 15 kt with gusts reaching 20 to 25. Isolated gusts of 30
to 35 kt will be possible at times, especially at KALB and KPSF
where rapid cooling from heavier snow could enhance downward
motion.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 31 kts. Likely RA...SN.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SN.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN...SN.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
     NYZ054.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning until 1 AM EST Saturday for NYZ032-
     033.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 AM EST Saturday for NYZ038.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for NYZ039-040-
     047-082.
MA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
     MAZ001.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...15
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...37