377
FXUS61 KALY 152322
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
622 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes were made to the forecast. Confidence
continues to increase for mild temperatures and widespread
rainfall Thursday night into Friday morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- Light lake effect snow showers across the southwestern
  Adirondacks through tonight.

- A storm system brings mild temperatures and rainfall to
  eastern New York and western New England Thursday evening into
  Friday morning before bitter cold temperatures return Friday
  night.

- Probabilities for wind gusts greater than 40 mph for Friday
  continue to be greater than 60% across the Berkshires,
  northern Taconics, Capital District region, and portions of
  the eastern Catskills.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Latest high resolution forecast model guidance and recent
surface observation trends continue to support for a band of
lake effect snow to develop off of Lake Ontario this evening
into tonight. This band of snow has high chances of bringing
light snowfall amounts for northern Herkimer county,
particularly north of route 28, with snow amounts between 1 to 4
inches through tonight.


KEY MESSAGE 2...
A low pressure system from the Great Lakes region heads eastward
across eastern New York and western New England Thursday night into
Friday morning. First, a warm front moves through bringing mild
temperatures for Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening with
temperatures in the upper 30s and 40s. As the warm front moves
through, precipitation begins Thursday evening as all rain.
Latest National Blend of Models data supports probabilities
between 70-75% for precipitation amounts greater than 0.5 inches
in 24 hours (7 PM Thursday through 7 PM Friday) across all of
eastern New York and western New England. Latest ensemble
forecast model guidances continue to support this low pressure
system to quickly move through the overnight hours Thursday and
early morning hours Friday. By Friday afternoon, conditions
become drier and low chances for light snow returns. Bitter cold
temperatures return Friday night with lows in the single digits
and low teens.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
Behind a strong cold front Friday afternoon, winds are
forecasted to increase as a low pressure system heads north and
east from the Northeast. Forecast confidence continues to
increase for a breezy to gusty afternoon and early evening.
Latest National Blend of Models (NBM) 4.3 data continues to
support 60-80% probabilities for wind gusts greater than 40 mph
across the Berkshires, northern Taconics, Capital District
region, and portions of the eastern Catskills. With this
information, forecast confidence continues to increase for these
locations to see the greatest wind impacts Friday afternoon
such as unsecured outdoor items being blown away and small tree
limbs could break.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 00Z/Wed, VFR conditions are expected with occasional
high/mid level clouds passing through tonight, then again toward
sunset on Tuesday. Light/variable winds overnight through
Tuesday morning will trend into the south to southwest at 4-8 KT
by Tuesday afternoon.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite RA.
Friday: High Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 32 kts. Likely RA...SN.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...24