318
FXUS61 KALY 081110
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
610 AM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front crossing the region early this morning will bring
another round of frigid temperatures today and tonight. While some
improvement is expected Tuesday, temperatures will remain well
below normal through the upcoming week. In addition, there will
be several chances of precipitation, especially Tuesday night
and Wednesday with potential for both rain and snow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Messages:

- Guidance remains consistent on a system impacting the area
  Wednesday with both rain and snow expected.

- Several inches of snow are possible mainly across upslope areas in
  the Mohawk Valley, western Adirondacks and southern Greens.

Discussion:

As of 1230 AM, a cold front stretched from central Maine into the
Mid Hudson Valley and northeast Pennsylvania. A few snow showers
were occurring along and ahead of the front, but most were dry with
blustery northwest winds gusting around 25-35 MPH. Temperatures as
of this writing were in the upper 20s to mid 30s, but were dropping
noticeably behind the front with values across central New York in
the upper teens to low 20s.

For today, the primary froecast challenge will be temperatures as
northwest flow promotes continued CAA across the region. Winds
initially will be blustery with gusts around 20-35, but should begin
to subside through the day with high pressure quickly building into
the region. Lows this morning will get quite chilly with values
expected to range from near zero (Adirondacks) to mid teens
(valleys), with little improvement in highs this afternoon as values
only range from the low teens (terrain) to mid 20s (valleys). Lows
tonight will drop below zero (terrain) to the low single digits with
skies clear for most and light & variable winds.

For Tuesday and Tuesday night, the high will quickly depart to our
east with weak southerly flow behind it, though temperatures will
remain chilly with highs only in the 20s. Clouds will be on the
increase ahead of another clipper system taking aim at the region,
which looks to mainly impact the region Tuesday night. Similar to
the last system, a track more north of the region will limit total
QPF for us as favorable lift and moisture will be displaced more
into Canada and the North Country.  While some light snow
accumulation is possible for northern areas, most spots will see a
light dusting. Temperatures will remain in the teens and 20s into
Tuesday night.

For Wednesday, guidance remains consistent with a stronger system
right on the heels of our Tuesday/Tuesday night clipper moving into
the region. This system will have more to work with in terms of
forcing with stronger convergence from a surface low and trailing
shortwave aloft and moisture from the Pacific, leading to higher
confidence of the area seeing measurable precipitation. Initially,
all locations should see snow early Wednesday morning with
strengthening WAA aloft ahead of the system and entrenched cold air,
with a mix with rain/changeover to all rain in mainly valley
locations by midday with surface temps rising above freezing. In
terms of potential snow accumulations, latest NBM probabilities
continue to favor upslope/high terrain locations in the Mohawk
Valley, western/central Adirondacks, Catskills and southern Greens
for at least advisory level (4"+) snow (70-100%), with lesser
amounts outside of these locations (at least a 50-60% of a coating
of snow). QPF will range from around one tenth to a half an inch in
valley locations, to around three quarters to one inch for high
terrain and upslope locations in the ADKs.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Message:

- Below normal temperatures remain in place along with continued
  chances of snow showers.

Discussion:

The aforementioned system will exit the region Wednesday night, but
not before bringing another cold front across the region. This front
will usher in a renewed push of cold air and northwest flow aloft,
which will remain in place through the duration of the long term
period. In addition, there will be periodic chances of snow showers
mainly across the lake effect zones in the Mohawk Valley and western
Adirondacks Thursday and Friday, with dry conditions favored
elsewhere. Another clipper may take aim for the region with light
snow Saturday, but there remains uncertainty in the strength and
track.

As mentioned previously, temperatures will remain below normal
through the late week and into the weekend with highs in the
20s to low 30s and lows in the teens. Much of the area may even
struggle to climb out of the teens/20s next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions are forecasted through the TAF period. A few
lingering VFR low clouds continue for KPSF, but clouds continue
to clear out for later this morning. Winds continue to be breezy
between 10 and 20 knots through 12-18z when winds will
gradually decrease for this afternoon. Calm winds return
tonight.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Definite RA...SN.
Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely RA...SN.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SN.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SN.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...17
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM...17
AVIATION...05