383
FXUS61 KALY 030143
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
843 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Snow from our first widespread winter storm of the year ends
tonight. Then, dry conditions expected late tonight through
Wednesday. An Arctic cold front will then move across the area
late Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing snow showers and a
few snow squalls. In wake of the cold front, a bitterly cold air
mass will move in Thursday night into Friday with dry
conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Messages:

- Travel cautiously tonight as clean-up efforts continue. Give
  yourself extra time to reach your destination.

Discussion:

The final bands of snow are exiting eastern NY and western New
England this evening with snow coming to an end before
Midnight. Clouds will gradually give way to partial clearing
overnight supporting radiational cooling and allowing
temperatures to fall into the teens and low 20s. If you plan to
travel tonight, drive carefully as any wet, untreated surfaces
can turn icy.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Message:

- High confidence in below normal temperatures continuing
  through early next week.

Discussion:

On Wed, surface ridging extending NE from high pressure
centered over the mid Atlantic region will bring tranquil but
cool conditions.

Chances for snow showers increase from NW to SE late Wed night
into Thu associated with an Arctic cold front approaching from
the Great Lakes and SE Canada. Model guidance continues to
signal an environment favorable for snow squalls with the
passage of the Arctic front. We will continue to monitor
the potential for significant impacts from these snow squalls.
Temperatures will drop significantly behind the Arctic front
late Thu into Thu night. Low temperatures will easily be the
coldest of the season so far, with widespread 0 to -5F in most
of the higher terrain to single digits in lower elevations.
However, winds are expected to diminish with high pressure
building in during the night and ensemble guidance has only low
to medium chances of apparent temperatures less than -10 F
confined to the Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley. So at this time,
Cold Weather Advisories appear to be unlikely.

The remainder of the long term will feature below normal
temperatures, with just slight to low chance for snow over the
weekend. The storm track remains fairly active, but it appears
the bulk of snow from any systems look to remain south of our
area. Will continue to monitor trends as a slight northerly
shift in the storm track would bring snow more into play. High
pressure is then expected to build back in early next week with
dry conditions, but with continued cold temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 00z Thursday...Snow continues to exit from west to east
this evening resulting in improving visibilities that likely
become VFR by 03 - 04 UTC. PSF will be the last to improve as
snow ends the latest there. MVFR/IFR cigs at GFL and POU likely
improve and trend to VFR overnight while MVFR/IFR cigs linger
at ALB and PSF, respectively, until closer to 09-11 UTC. Some
guidance suggests IFR cigs at PSF continue through 15 UTC but
not enough confidence to persist IFR cigs that long given
northwesterly flow. VFR conditions then expected at all
terminals through the end of the TAF period. Otherwise,
northwesterly winds remain 5-9kts tonight, trending weaker
toward 09-12 UTC. Winds turn west-northwesterly by 12-15 UTC but
remain near or under 5kts.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHSN.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...07/91
SHORT TERM...91
LONG TERM...07/91
AVIATION...31