


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
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192 FXUS61 KALY 172353 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 753 PM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025 .SYNOPSIS... After another chilly night tonight, temperatures trend warmer this weekend with continued dry weather. Sunday night and Monday, a strong frontal system will bring widespread rain, with a cooler airmass moving in behind this system. Cool and unsettled weather is then expected for the middle to end of next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 7:40 PM EDT...Tonight, the ridge crest moves overhead, as does the sfc high. This will allow winds to decrease after sunset. While there could still be some thin high clouds across western areas tonight, most of the region, especially from I-87 east, will see nearly ideal radiational cooling conditions. Temperatures should drop quickly after sunset, with lows bottoming out in the mid 20s to around 30 for most areas. We went several degrees below NBM lows tonight given this setup. Frost/freeze headlines will be in effect from 10PM to 9AM tonight into Saturday morning for the Hudson Valley and western CT where the growing season is still ongoing. Saturday and Saturday night...We remain under the influence of ridging aloft, which will promote continued subsidence and generally tranquil weather conditions with some mid and high clouds around. The sfc high will be overhead to start the day Saturday, but slides off to the east by the evening. Saturday will be a few degrees warmer than today, and Saturday night will feature lows mainly in the 30s to 40s with more clouds around and many areas retaining a light wind. Saturday night into Sunday, our next weather system will be taking shape to our west as northern stream and southern stream energy phase, with the resulting upper trough becoming negatively tilted as it tracks into the Ohio Valley. At the same time, the resulting sfc low that forms will track through the Great Lakes region. The system`s warm front will lift north through the region late Saturday night into Sunday, which will allow for high temperatures to reach the upper 60s to low 70s on Sunday. Winds will also become gusty as the pressure gradient strengthens between the departing sfc high and the deepening sfc low tracking into the Great Lakes. Based on BUFKIT forecast soundings, continued along the lines of what was done on previous shifts to bump winds up. Will continue to message gusts of 25-30+ kt, strongest in the N/S oriented valleys where flow becomes channeled. While Sunday should remain dry, clouds will be on the increase through the afternoon into the evening. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Key Messages: - Confidence remains high in a frontal system bringing beneficial, widespread rainfall to the region Sunday night through Monday. - 24-hour probabilities for > 0.5" range from ~60-80% regionwide with ~30-50% probabilities for greater than 1". Discussion: Sunday night through Monday night...Aforementioned upper trough continues to become increasingly negatively tilted and eventually closes off aloft as it tracks over NY/New England Sunday night into Monday. While the parent low will be tracking well north into Canada by this point, there continues to be increasing confidence based on 06/12z guidance in a wave of low pressure developing along the system`s cold front. This will help to slow the forward progression of the front and allow for widespread precip across the region. While a more progressive front can`t completely be ruled out, the overall trend has been wetter, with 0.5-1" of rain expected for most areas, with some locally higher amounts possible. Best chance for rain looks to be mainly Sunday night into Monday morning, with decreasing shower chances/coverage Monday night. Lows Sunday night will be in the 40s to 50s, with highs Monday in the 50s to low 60s. Monday night, we cool off more behind the front with lows back in the 30s to 40s. Winds could become gusty again Monday afternoon behind the cold front, especially where flow channeling occurs down the Mohawk Valley through the Capital District into the Berkshires. Rain could be locally heavy at times, as a strengthening LLJ aids in efficient moisture transport into our region. PWATs increase to 1.3-1.5", which is near or above the daily max per the SPC sounding climatology. There will also be strong upper dynamics and low-level forcing with strong convergence along the cold front. Therefore, while NBM probabilistic guidance has been shown to have a wet bias for higher qpf amounts per local research, the overlap of strong forcing and anomalous moisture supports some of these higher probabilities for >1" of rain. Nevertheless, hydro issues are not expected due to ongoing antecedent dry conditions across the region. Tuesday through Thursday...Tuesday looks quieter and drier with shortwave ridging building overhead. However, there is decent agreement from deterministic and ensemble guidance in another, larger upper low tracking overhead by the middle of next week. With moist cyclonic flow aloft, the pattern Tuesday through Thursday looks to remain unsettled with periods of showers, with temperatures remaining seasonably cool for late October. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 00z Saturday...VFR conditions mainly prevail through the 24 hour TAF period as a building upper level ridge and sfc high promote dry conditions with just some cirrus clouds spilling overtop the ridge. Given effective radiational cooling through tomorrow night, we are suspicious of some patchy fog developing at GFL given dew points in the mid-30s and overnight lows expected to drop into the upper 20s. Therefore, we included a TEMPO group from 07-11 UTC for IFR fog. Otherwise, winds remain light and variable through the end of the TAF cycle. Outlook... Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 31 kts. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite RA. Monday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite RA...TSRA. Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... Saturday will feature RH values in the 30-40% range for areas from the Hudson Valley eastwards, but the risk for fire spread looks low due to light winds. Sunday, winds look to increase substantially with south/southeast gusts of up to 25-35 mph in the afternoon. Confidence is low on how low minimum RH values get, but at this point a "reasonable worst case" scenario is for minimum RH of around 40% in the upper Hudson Valley and western Bennington County with minimum RH values 50-60% elsewhere. A widespread wetting rainfall is expected Sunday night into Monday, which should quell any additional fire weather concerns. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT Saturday for CTZ001-013. NY...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT Saturday for NYZ049-050-052-053- 059-060-064>066. Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT Saturday for NYZ041-043-083-084. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...35 SHORT TERM...35 LONG TERM...35 AVIATION...31 FIRE WEATHER...35