209
FXUS61 KALY 190601
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
201 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A dangerous combination of near-record heat and elevated humidity
will continue through at least Thursday, especially at lower
elevations. While much of the region will remain dry during this
period, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible each afternoon. A modest respite from the heat will
come in time for the weekend as a cold front approaches the
region on Friday, although temperatures will nonetheless remain
seasonably warm.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
**Heat Advisories are now in effect across all of eastern New
 York and western New England through 8 PM Thursday**

.UPDATE...As of 0200 AM EDT, mild and muggy conditions continue
across the region as temperature remain stuck in the mid 60s to
upper 70s. Cloud cover increasing from the west will allow for
little in the way of additional cooling tonight, as temperatures
slowly drop to early morning lows in the mid 60s to low 70s.
With high humidity persisting, areas of valley fog are possible,
most likely in portions of the southern Adirondacks and Upper
Hudson Valley where temperatures have cooled the most so far
tonight and where rain showers occurred earlier.

Convection across western and central New York has largely
dissipated, with only a few light showers tracking across the
Finger Lakes region and little to no precipitation expected to
region even the southwestern Adirondacks or western Mohawk
Valley. Elsewhere, dry conditions are expected to continue. The
forecast thus remains on track; see previous discussion below...

.PREV DISCUSSION [1025 PM EDT]...Through tonight, the current
594 dam closed high currently spanning a large portion of the
East Coast, including much of eastern New York and western New
England, will look to amplify slightly as it tracks further
north into the Northeast. With the loss of daytime heating, any
showers and thunderstorms that have developed this afternoon
will quickly die off yielding a dry but muggy night with low
temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
**Heat Advisories continue through 8 PM Thursday for all of
 eastern New York and western New England**

By tomorrow morning, the upper high looks to become centered
over the Mid-Atlantic at about 597 dam. The amplification,
though modest, will ensure 850 mb temperatures increasing to
near 20C in most valley areas and about 18C at higher
elevations. With forecast soundings indicating mixing up to 900
to 850 mb and the anomalously high upper-level ridging in place,
high temperatures tomorrow will fair a few degrees warmer than
today with mid/upper 80s anticipated above 1000 ft and mid to
possibly upper 90s in valley areas. Dewpoints in the upper 60s
to low 70s will make for dangerous heat indices of up to 95
degrees in mountainous areas and 95 to 104 degrees at lower
elevations. Isolated heat index values of 105 degrees are
possible in the Hudson Valley, but the lack of coverage,
anticipated brevity of such conditions, and overall high
confidence in remaining largely below 105 degree apparent
temperatures warranted the continuation of the Heat Advisory
instead of an upgrade to an Excessive Heat Warning. That`s not
to say that this couldn`t change during the overnight period
should new sources of guidance indicate a more widespread,
longer duration of heat indices of 105 degrees or greater.
However, with models having come to a strong consensus in
temperatures remaining largely within the mid 90s with pockets
of upper 90s in the Hudson Valley where these indices would be
more common, it is looking less and less likely that such a
product would be needed. It is important to note that the
conditions forecast for tomorrow, though not meeting Excessive
Heat criteria, are still incredibly dangerous if caution is not
heeded. Drink plenty of water, limit time outdoors, and
familiarize yourself with the signs and symptoms of heat
illness.

With dominating high pressure, conditions tomorrow will
primarily be dry, though some isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible as upper energy pulses about the
northwestern periphery of the high. At this time, no severe
thunderstorms are expected. Low temperatures tomorrow night will
be similar to tonight with upper 60s to low 70s across the
region.

Thursday`s conditions will be fairly similar to tomorrow with
the strength of the upper high remaining relatively stagnant.
High temperatures will once again range from the mid/upper 80s
to low/mid 90s with pockets of low 80s above 1500 ft. Heat index
values will reach the low to mid 90s in high elevations with 95
to 104 degrees in valley areas. Therefore, the Heat Advisory
will be allowed to persist through Thursday evening. Additional
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, some of which
could become severe, are possible once again Thursday due to a
surface trough tracking through the region. At this time, wind
looks to be the primary threat with any severe storms that
arise. Once daytime heating is lost Thursday night, showers and
thunderstorms will taper off to yield another night of mid/upper
60s to low 70s.

Though Friday will be warmer than typical mid-June standards, we
will finally begin to get a respite to oppressive heat thanks to
a surface cold front tracking through the region from northwest
to southeast. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible across
much of the region as a result of this boundary progression.
Highs Friday will range from the upper 70s to upper 80s with
pockets of low 90s in the lower Mid Hudson Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The extended forecast period begins with a frontal boundary stalling
near the Pennsylvania and New York border with isolated to scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms ending mainly south of Interstate
90. High pressure will be building in from southern Quebec and
northern New England with a brief period of slightly cooler and
drier weather to open the weekend.  Lows will fall into the 50s to
around 60F over the higher terrain Friday night with mid and upper
60s in the valleys. The frontal boundary will lift back north
as a warm front Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Some
scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop along and near
the boundary during the afternoon. Max temps will will run a
little above normal with 70s to lower 80s over the higher
terrain and mid and upper 80s in the valleys. The mid and upper
level flow goes from zonal to southwesterly Saturday night into
Sunday ahead of mid and upper level trough approaching from
southern Ontario and the Great Lakes Region. The forecast area
returns to a warm sector and the air mass become more humid and
unstable. Lows Saturday night will be muggy in the 60s with a
few upper 50s over the mountains.

Sunday into Monday, a prefrontal trough may focus some bands or
clusters of strong thunderstorms to close the weekend. The
better low to mid level height falls and the cold front don`t
move across the region until Sunday night into Monday. PWATS
will run above normal, so some locally heavy rain may occur
Sunday night into Monday. We kept PoPs in the likely to high
chance range to close the weekend and open next week. Highs
Monday may get into the mid 80s to around 90F in the valleys and
upper 70s to lower 80s over the mtns. Lows Sunday night will be
still sticky in the 60s to around 70F. The clouds and pcpn may
keep may temps down a bit on Monday with 70s to lower/mid 80s.
Some places in the Adirondacks may hold in the 60s.

Monday night into Tuesday, high pressure builds into the area
in the wake of the cold front with a brief respite potentially
of slightly drier and pleasant early summer weather. Lows fall
into the 50s to around 60F. Max temps will return slightly above
normal for Tuesday. CPC`s Day 8 to 14 outlook for the last week
of June into early July is calling for above normal temps and
near normal pcpn across eastern NY and western New England.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions at ALB, PSF, and POU through 12 UTC while GFL will
continue to vary between IFR and MVFR visibility due to foggy
conditions after daytime rain yesterday and a muggy night. There
will be instances of LIFR visibility but given uncertainty on exact
duration of any LIFR visibility, we only show IFR visibility in the
TEMPO group. If longer periods of LIFR vis are expected, we will
make amendments.

Fog at GFL dissipates by 10-12 UTC with VFR conditions mainly
prevailing through the rest of the TAF period. The exception will be
during any periods of isolated to widely scattered afternoon
thunderstorms that develop. Highest chances for afternoon storms
(mainly developing by 17 - 19 UTC through sunset) look to be for GFL
which will be closer to the periphery of the broad upper level ridge
and thus closer to the "ridge roller" activity. ALB and PSF could
see some brief showers and storms as well but activity should be
more isolated. We therefore included PROB30 groups at GFL, PSF, and
ALB for the afternoon and show potential for MVFR visibility during
any storms. POU should experience stronger subsidence and therefore
storms are more unlikely.

Any storms should dissipate by sunset. However, where storms can
occur, fog may quickly develop towards or shortly after sunset given
such a humid air mass staying in place. Included MVFR vis at GFL by
00 UTC/20 with potential for IFR vis/cigs given higher potential for
this terminal to experience a storm but maintained VFR conditions
for ALB and PSF where storm coverage is more isolated and less
certain on exact placement. If storms occur at ALB and PSF, MVFR or
even brief IFR vis will be possible after 00 UTC/20.

Light and variable winds through 12 UTC except at ALB where
sustained southeasterly winds remain around 5-7kts. Then, south to
southwesterly winds become sustained 5-8kts at all terminal by 15 -
17 UTC. Brief strong wind gusts are possible during any
thunderstorms this afternoon (17 - 23 UTC), especially during any
stronger storms. Winds turn light and variable after 00 UTC/20.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures...

Wednesday, June 19:
Albany - 94 (1995)
Glens Falls - 97 (1995)
Poughkeepsie - 92 (1941, 1943, 1993, 2016)

Thursday, June 20:
Albany - 97 (1953)
Glens Falls - 97 (1923)
Poughkeepsie - 96 (2012)

Friday, June 21:
Albany - 97 (1938)
Glens Falls - 96 (2012)
Poughkeepsie - 97 (1949)

Record High Minimum Temperatures...

Wednesday, June 19:
Albany - 71 (1976)
Glens Falls - 67 (1905, 1949, 1976, 2017)
Poughkeepsie - 73 (1993)

Thursday, June 20:
Albany - 73 (1893)
Glens Falls - 68 (1964)
Poughkeepsie - 71 (1931)

Friday, June 21:
Albany - 72 (1923)
Glens Falls - 71 (1953)
Poughkeepsie - 73 (1931)

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for CTZ001-013.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ032-033-038>043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for MAZ001-025.
VT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for VTZ013>015.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gant/Picard
NEAR TERM...Gant/Picard/Rathbun
SHORT TERM...Gant
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...Speciale
CLIMATE...Picard/Rathbun