639
FXUS61 KALY 190037
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
837 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions in store today through tomorrow night.
Unseasonably cool temperatures overnight into tomorrow morning.
Unsettled weather conditions early Sunday morning into Sunday
afternoon. By Sunday night, dry conditions return for the
beginning of next week. For midweek, heat and humid conditions
could return to eastern New York and western New England.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.UPDATE...Noticed based on latest obs that temperatures were
several degrees off the NBM. Therefore, made updates to the
hourly temperatures, dewpoints, and minimum temperature forecast
for tonight. Given the favored radiational cooling set up for
tonight with high pressure moving overhead; little wind; much
lower dewpoints; and anticipation for current clear skies to
persist, lows should be able to radiate down to the mid/;upper
40s across high terrain and low to mid 50s in the valleys. All
else remains on track with additional details below.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Surface high pressure overhead continues through Saturday night
bringing dry conditions to eastern New York and western New
England. Temperatures remain seasonal and comfortable as highs
tomorrow range in the 60s for higher terrain locations to the
mid 80s in valleys. Low temperatures tonight into tomorrow
morning are going to be cool with lows ranging in the 40s across
higher terrain locations and in the 50s elsewhere.

By Saturday night, surface high pressure heads east and high
resolution forecast model guidance is supporting rain showers
and a few thunderstorms to move through associated with a low
pressure system moving through the Great Lakes region during the
very early morning hours Sunday. There is some shifting of the
low pressure system with latest forecast model guidance having
it head further north for Saturday night, so dry conditions are
favored to continue through at least midnight for eastern New
York and western New England. For locations north and west of
Albany, rain showers have the greatest chances (greater than 50
percent) of occurring with a few rumbles of thunder between
midnight and 6 AM at this forecast time. Chances for
precipitation (40-60%) increase Sunday afternoon ahead of a cold
front across eastern New York and western New England. Precipitation
amounts are forecasted by latest National Blend of Model data
to range between 0.1 inches and 0.25 inches, but could be higher
with heavier downpours from thunderstorms. Primary concerns
with any developed thunderstorm Sunday is lightning, heavy
downpours, and gusty winds. By Sunday night, dry and breezy
conditions return behind the cold front. Surface high pressure
continues overhead through Tuesday bringing dry conditions.

Seasonal temperatures continue through the weekend into the
beginning of next week with highs ranging in the 70s and low to mid
80s. Low chances of precipitation (less than 30%) for beyond
Wednesday as ensemble forecast models and National Blend of Models
probabilistic guidance supports a variety of weather conditions as
we could see either dry conditions or afternoon rain shower activity
due to upper level troughing. Low temperatures overnight into the
morning hours range in the 50s and 60s. Locations in the Adirondacks
could range in the 40s for Monday morning. Towards midweek into the
end of next week, hot afternoon temperatures and humid conditions
could return with temperatures ranging in the 80s and low 90s.
Latest National Blend of Models 4.3 data suggests high temperatures
for Thursday greater than 90 degrees across valley locations between
50 and 65 percent.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 00z Sunday...VFR conditions prevail early this evening
with primarily clear skies across eastern New York and western
New England. Such conditions are expected to persist throughout
the entire 00z TAF period with high pressure in place and much
drier conditions eliminating the fog potential for tonight.
Minor increases in cloud cover will occur tomorrow in response
to an incoming warm front, but precipitation should hold off
until after the conclusion of this cycle. Winds will remain
light out of the south to southwest with sustained speeds under
10 kt.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Webb
DISCUSSION...Webb/Gant
AVIATION...Gant