240
FXUS61 KALY 180613
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
113 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A period of tranquil weather with below normal temperatures begins
today and lingers through Thursday as high pressure builds in
and remains in place across the region. A weak frontal
disturbance will pass by to our north Friday, increasing the
probability of precipitation regionwide as a series of fronts
pass through. Dry, cool conditions return for the weekend and
into the beginning of next week as high pressure returns.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure over the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Mid-
Atlantic regions continues to progress farther north and east
this morning as a deep low pressure cyclone departs farther
north and eastward. Dry conditions have largely regained hold
over the region in the face of increasing subsidence and a much-
weakened lake connection, but persistent cyclonic flow within
the rear flank of the upper- level trough aloft has maintained
fairly extensive cloud cover, especially across higher terrain
areas. As this trough lifts north and east throughout the day,
northwesterly winds will gradually back to the west such that
dry air gets further entrained into the area and works to erode
clouds to a greater extent. Fairly deep mixing (from ~900 mb to
850 mb) in the partly cloudy to mostly clear valleys will then
see temperatures reach the low to mid 40s while higher terrain
regions maintain cloud cover due to orographic enhancement and
don`t escape the 30s. Clouds stick around across the higher
elevations tonight and redevelop within the valleys as a weak
shortwave and associated low pressure system pass by to our
south, forcing today`s anticyclone to depart to the east. While
a stray snow shower or two cannot be ruled out in the Southeast
Catskills and lower Mid- Hudson Valley, most areas will remain
dry with low temperatures falling into the upper 10s to upper
20s.

A stronger area of surface high pressure builds in across the
region from the west Wednesday, maintaining dry conditions and
eroding clouds to the point of mostly clear skies. Despite this,
high temperatures will remain below normal with values largely
spanning the upper 30s to mid 40s. Lows Wednesday night,
similarly to tonight, fall to the upper 10s to upper 20s.
Tranquil conditions remain steady on Thursday as the surface
high begins to shift eastward. Highs will be similar to today
and Wednesday, but just a few degrees warmer in spots despite
increasing cloud cover courtesy of the passage of a weak,
moisture-starved shortwave aloft and ahead of an advancing
trough from the west.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The aforementioned trough traverses the Upper-Midwest and Great
Lakes regions through Thursday night as an associated surface
low slides into the Hudson/James Bay areas. Lows Thursday night
will be milder in comparison to previous nights due to more
extensive cloud cover interfering with radiational cooling.
Values will be in the upper 20s to mid 30s.

By Friday morning, a warm front extending south and west from
the parent low in the Hudson Bay will be encroaching upon the
region, with warm air advection and isentropic lift increasing.
There are still some differences in the deterministic guidance
pertaining to the timing and spatial spread of resulting
showers, but general consensus points to an onset time late
Friday morning/early Friday afternoon. That said, precipitation
type should be primarily rain with a possible rain/snow mix at
the highest peaks of the Southwest Adirondacks and Southern
Greens where temperatures will be coolest. Highs Friday look to
primarily be in the 40s to low 50s with mid/upper 30s at those
aforementioned high peaks.

As this is a fairly progressive system, the warm front looks to
be through by Friday evening with the trailing cold front
following closely behind it and completing its passage by early
Saturday morning. With lows falling into the mid 20s to mid 30s
Friday night, any lingering rain is expected to transition to
snow or a mix thereof, but freezing rain is not anticipated at
this time. All precipitation looks to conclude by Saturday mid-
morning, allowing dry conditions to resume again with high
pressure building in once again. Highs Saturday will be in the
30s and 40s with lows in the 20s Saturday night. The remainder
of the weekend and beginning of the new work week will remain
dry with below normal temperatures. Sunday`s highs will be
similar to those of Saturday with lows in the 20s to low 30s.
Monday will be a smidgen warmer with upper 30s to low 50s for
highs and lows Monday night in the upper 20s to low 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Our region is still under the influence of cyclonic flow aloft,
resulting in widespread stratocu clouds thanks to the moist flow
off the eastern Great Lakes. BKN-OVC cigs around 3500-5000 ft
for the valley TAF sites, resulting in VFR flying conditions.
Meanwhile, ceilings are a little lower over the Berkshires,
resulting in MVFR conditions thanks to ceilings around 2500-3000
ft there. Through the rest of the overnight hours, flying
conditions will continue to be MVFR for KPSF, with VFR for the
other sites. Will mention a TEMPO for MVFR at KALB as some brief
ceilings around 3000 ft cannot be ruled out due to upstream
observations across the Mohawk Valley, but it should be VFR most
of the time. No precip is expected, as all snow showers have
been limited to areas further west due to the shallow moisture
flow in place. Westerly winds will continue to be gusty at KPSF
overnight, with some gusts up to 20 kts, but lighter winds are
expected for the other sites.

During the day on Tuesday, flying conditions will generally be
VFR. Any MVFR cigs at KPSF will improve by the mid to late
morning hours, with just sct cigs around 3-5 kft for all sites.
West to northwest winds will be around 10 kts with some higher
gusts at times, especially for KPSF and KALB. These winds will
diminish on Tuesday evening with the loss of daytime heating and
will become very light or calm. Skies should become mostly
clear for Tuesday evening into the first part of Tuesday night.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...37
SHORT TERM...37
LONG TERM...37
AVIATION...27