259
FXUS61 KALY 110635
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
135 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Blustery and cold conditions will prevail today with
lake effect snow showers and flurries, as the heavier lake effect
snows will be in the western Mohawk Valley and western Adirondacks.
A chilly air mass will continue across the region through the mid
week with bouts of rain and snow showers with a couple of upper
level disturbances into Friday.  High pressure builds in late Friday
into the first half of weekend with dry weather but still below
normal temperatures for mid November.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Messages:

- High confidence for below normal temps with accumulating lake
  effect snow across the western Adirondacks/western Mohawk
  Valley into tonight. Winter Weather Advisory for southern
  Herkimer Co. for 2-6" snow.

- Winds gusting around 40 mph expected across parts of the
  Mohawk Valley, Capital Region, eastern Catskills, northern
  Taconics and Berkshires today.

Discussion:

As of 135 AM EST...Old Man Winter makes a Veterans Day
appearance for eastern NY and western New England with very cold
temps, blustery winds and lake effect and upslope snow showers
and flurries. A strong sfc pressure gradient sets up between low
pressure over east/southeast Quebec and high pressure over the
Deep South. West to northwest winds will increase to 15-25 mph
with some gusts to 35-40+ mph. The core of the coldest air at
H500 moves over upstate NY/New England with lake effect snow
bands developing downwind of Lake Ontario. In the west to
northwest flow band/bands in a 290 Deg trajectory look to impact
the Mohawk Valley/northern Catskills. Additional upslope snow
showers will impact the southern Greens, western Dacks, north-
central Taconics and Berkshires. Some of the snow showers will
progress into the Capital Region and Hudson River Valley. The
best accumulating snowbands look to be over southern Herkimer
County based on the CAMS and some impacts may occur along and
near the I-90 corridor. Upstream soundings at KRME/KUCA show
initially a high inversion height near 8-9 kft AGL with a
moderate-extreme class of instability due to favorable delta T`s
to H850 or H700. The Lake Ontario temp of 12C or so was used.
Some snow accums by early nightfall may get in the 2-6" range in
southern Herkimer Co especially west of County Route 28.
Locations in the west-central Mohawk Valley could get 1-3", as
well as the western Dacks, northern Catskills and southern
Greens from upslope. Some high peaks of the southern Greens may
get close to 4". We placed an advisory out for southern Herkimer
Co for the snow and potential impact on the Thruway. Most other
locations will see a dusting to an inch or so on grassy
surfaces where snow showers occur in the valley areas.

Gusty winds to 30-40 mph will also reduce visibilities. We used
the NBM 90th percentile for winds & gusts with some slight
upward adjustments for peak gusts. Clouds may inhibit
widespread gusts>45 mph. Based on momentum transfer profiles on
the NAM/HRRR we could see some gusts around 40 mph if we mix to
3kft AGL or so. We would have to mix closer to 5 kft for higher
gusts. A few spots in the Berkshires may gust around 45 mph. Max
temps will be close to 15 degrees below normal with mid 20s to
around 30F over the higher terrain...and mid 30s to around 40F
in the valleys. Wind chills or "Feels-like" temps will be in the
teens and 20s.

Tonight, the low to mid-level flow backs to the west to
southwest ahead of the next clipper or northern stream short-
wave trough approaching from the Great Lakes Region. Scattered
snow showers will persist over the west/southwest Adirondacks
with additional light snow accums of an inch or two. The
southern Greens could get another inch or two. The winds will
subside to 5-15 mph with lows in the 20s to lower 30s. If snow
amounts come up we may need an advisory for northern Herkimer
Co.

Wed-Wed night...the clipper/short-wave trough moves across the
region with renewed scattered snow and rain showers. The
boundary layer temps warm for scattered showers during the day
with snow potentially having a tougher time to accumulate during
the daylight hours over the terrain. Still light accums for the
western Dacks and southern Greens. Temps modify slightly but
are still below normal with lower to mid 40s in the valleys and
upper 20s to upper 30s over the hills and mtns with south to
southwest winds 10-20 mph. A weak cold front/sfc trough moves
through Wed night with scattered snow and rain to snow showers.
Best light accums west of the Hudson River Valley over the
higher terrain and over the southern Greens with 1-3". Lows will
be in the mid 20s to mid 30s.

By Thursday....cyclonic flow persists with another impulse
moving across the region with a possible multi-lake connection
for lake effect snow showers for the western Mohawk Valley and
northern Catskills. Boundary layer temps look marginal, so
accums look light, though the upslope should favor the western
Dacks (above 2kft in elevation) for at least another 1-3" of
snow. West to northwest winds increase to 10-20 mph with highs
5-10 degrees below normal with mid 40s to close to 50F in the
valleys and 30s to lower 40s over the higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Message:

- High confidence in below normal temps continuing through the
  long term period.

Discussion:

The extended features a brief respite in the snow and rain
showers late Fri. Another short-wave and attendant sfc trough
moves across eastern NY and western New England Thu night
through Fri with some lake effect snow and valley rain/snow
showers. The low-level flow shift northwest, so narrow multi-
bands may impact locations south and west of the Capital Region
with light accums Thu night into Fri. Lows will be in the 20s to
lower 30s with max temps predominately in the 30s to lower/mid
40s with brisk conditions. The subsidence inversion lowers late
in the day with high pressure building in from southeast Canada
and the Great Lakes Region. Clearing skies and cold weather Fri
night with lows in the teens and 20s due to radiative cooling.
High pressure will yield fair, cold and dry weather with some
high clouds increasing from the south and west late in day to
open the weekend. Max temps will still run about 10degrees below
normal with 30s to lower 40s with some upper 20 over the high
peaks.

Low pressure approaches from the Great Lakes Region and southern
Ontario Sat night with a warm front lifting north/northeast
from the lower Great Lakes Region and Mid Atlantic corridor.
Clouds thicken and lower with some chances of pcpn increasing
Sunday morning. Some of the guidance indicates a light wintry
mix including some freezing rain. Confidence is low and kept as
snow/rain mix for now. Pcpn transitions to rain showers on
Sunday with temps rising closer to normal briefly before the
cold front moves through potentially Sunday night with brisk
winds and another surge of cold advection. A secondary cold
front moves through potentially on Monday with lake
effect/upslope snow showers once again, as temps run below
normal 5-10 degrees to open next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06z Wednesday...Flying conditions currently range from VFR
to MVFR with BKN to OVC cigs between 2000-3500 ft. Expecting this to
persist through the remainder of the night, with the highest
likelihood of MVFR cigs at PSF and the best chance for more VFR cigs
at POU. Then, shortly after sunrise, lake effect snow showers move
down the Mohawk Valley towards ALB and PSF, with some upslope snow
developing at PSF from late morning through mid to late afternoon as
well. IFR vsbys and MVFR to IFR cigs expected within any snow/snow
showers, but outside of these snow showers mainly VFR conditions
expected. Have kept prevailing snow and IFR conditions at PSF and
kept the prob30 at ALB from the previous TAF issuance, but with
lower confidence on snow showers at GFL have removed the prob30
there in favor of just a VCSH group. Not expecting much in the way
of snow shower activity at POU. The snow/snow showers should
diminish by early evening, with mainly VFR conditions at ALB/GFL/POU
and MVFR cigs at PSF through the remainder of the TAF period.

Winds tonight will be mainly from the west at around 10 kt with some
gusts to 15-25kt. By mid to late morning, west winds increase to 10-
15 kt with gusts of 25-35 kt. A few gusts of 35-40 kt can`t be ruled
out at ALB/PSF this afternoon. Given gusty winds and strong low-
level jet, low-level turbulence will be possible today especially
from late morning through mid to late afternoon. Winds and gusts
begin to weaken after sunset, but it may not be until 2-4z that
gusts diminish below 15kt. Winds then back slightly to the W/SW and
remain at 5-10 kt.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...SHSN.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for NYZ038.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...15
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...35