851
FXUS61 KALY 150604
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
104 AM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
After a chilly start, expect increasing clouds today ahead of a
strengthening clipper system that will result in a period of
precipitation late this afternoon into tonight including freezing
rain for parts of the Adirondacks, Upper Hudson Valley and
southern Vermont. Chilly and blustery conditions then arrive for
Sunday through Monday with lake effect and upslope snow
showers.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message:

- Moderate to high confidence in a period of freezing rain late
  this afternoon into tonight for parts of the Adirondacks,
  Upper Hudson Valley and southern Vermont. A Winter Weather
  Advisory is in effect for these areas starting between 4 PM
  and 7 PM today through 1 AM tonight.

Discussion:

Any morning sun will fade behind increasing clouds as the high
departs to the east and a frontal system approaches from the
west. The earlier arrival of clouds may result in cooler
temperatures for the afternoon with temperatures in the upper
30s to upper 40s. Some of the latest CAMs suggest that
temperatures may even fall short of current forecast values as
the quick thickening of clouds would limit daytime warming
potential.

An approaching upper level shortwave and surface warm front will
bring the return of precipitation Saturday afternoon into Sunday
night. A surge of warm air aloft combined with surface
temperatures above freezing will allow precipitation to mainly
fall in the form of rain. However, surface temperatures across
parts of the Adirondacks and southern Vermont may be near or
below freezing for a period of time for freezing rain to occur
before temperatures rise above freezing. Increasing confidence
in light ice amounts (a light glaze to around one tenth of an
inch) led to the issuance of a Winter Weather Advisory for
portions of the Adirondacks and southern Vermont. While isolated
pockets of freezing rain may also occur across portions of the
upper Hudson Valley, the overall coverage and confidence was not
high enough to issue an advisory at this time. Temperatures
Saturday night will fall into the upper 20s to around 40 but
slowly rise during the second half of the night as the warm
front lifts northward across the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Message:

- Blustery conditions expected Sunday through early next week
  along with lake effect and upslope snow showers.

Discussion:

The system`s cold front crosses the region Sunday morning with
cold air advection and blustery conditions building in its wake
as an upper level trough rebuilds overhead. Moist, cyclonic flow
and 850 hPa temperatures falling below 0C will develop another
round of lake effect and upslope snow showers. Latest guidance
is favoring a more northwesterly wind flow which would favor the
stronger lake effect bands to be oriented south of I-90 across
Schoharie County and into the eastern Catskills. Some fragments
of the band could extend into the mid-Hudson Valley and possibly
even into northwestern CT at times. Upslope snow showers will
be favored across the Adirondacks and the northern and central
Taconics into parts of western New England. These snow showers
will continue through Monday before gradually diminishing on
Tuesday as surface high pressure builds into the area. Snowfall
amounts look to be on the lighter side, mainly on the order of a
coating to 2 inches. However, where a more localized band of
steadier snow sets up, some higher amounts can occur. Winds
will also pick up in the wake of the cold front on Sunday and
continue into Monday as the surface low rapidly strengthens
across Atlantic Canada. Gusts between 25 and 40 mph are
expected for much of eastern New York and western New England
during this time.

A period of drier weather is expected for the middle of the week
with surface high pressure overhead and more zonal flow sets up
aloft. Another upper level disturbance looks to approach the
region later next week with some additional precipitation,
through there in some uncertainty with overall timing of such
system. Temperatures for the remainder of next week will
continue to run slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06z Sunday...VFR conditions prevail across all terminals
early this morning with the exception of KGFL where rapid
fluctuations between MVFR to IFR and even LIFR visibilities and
ceilings have been noted over the past couple of hours due to
radiational fog. Infrared satellite currently shows clouds sinking
south into the terminal, however, so the ob variation should be over
at this point. Presently the ob shows VFR ceilings and visibility
but just in case there`s clearing, we maintained a TEMPO for MVFR
visibility for the next two hours. Will keep a close eye on it and
amend where/if necessary.

VFR conditions will largely be in place throughout much of the TAF
period, though KPSF could sport some MVFR ceilings beginning in the
next hour or two. Clouds will be on the increase throughout the day
as a potent upper level disturbance approaches and eventually brings
widespread rainfall to the region. KGFL is the only site that could
see some light freezing rain for a few hours shortly after
precipitation onset, so included that in their TAF. Precipitation
onset looks to fall between 21z to 22z and span the rest of the 06z
cycle. Rain could become moderate at times especially over KALB and
KPOU but with timing uncertainties, included this possibility within
a PROB30 group. Winds throughout the period will be light, under 10
kt, and primarily northwesterly to start before gradually backing to
the southeast by the end of the period.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite RA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 35 kts. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA...SHSN.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 33 kts. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST
     Sunday for NYZ033-042-082.
MA...None.
VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EST
     Sunday for VTZ013-014.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...31
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...31
AVIATION...37