572
FXUS61 KALY 021114
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
614 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A strengthening coastal storm will bring a widespread moderate
to heavy snowfall across the region today through this evening.
Dry conditions expected late tonight through Wednesday. An
Arctic cold front will then move across the area late Wednesday
night into Thursday, bringing snow showers and a few snow
squalls. In wake of the cold front, a bitterly cold air mass
will move in Thursday night into Friday with dry conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Messages:

- Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories remain in
  effect for most of eastern New York and western New England
  from 7 AM today through 1 AM Wednesday.

- Moderate to heavy snowfall rates of 0.5" to 1" per hour are
  expected from mid/late this morning through late
  afternoon/early evening. This will especially affect the
  afternoon commute.

Discussion:

The first widespread winter storm of the season is on track to
begin with snow developing north/west of Albany in the pre-dawn
hours then spreading south/east across the rest of the area from
around sunrise into the mid morning. Only change to headlines
from yesterday is expanding the Winter Storm Warning to include
all of Fulton County where southerly upslope flow into the
afternoon will result in enhanced snowfall(6-9") relative to the
rest of the Mohawk Valley and S. Adirondacks(5-7").

Temperatures dropped significantly during the first half of
tonight, so plenty of cold air is in place at the onset of the
event this morning. As a result, dewpoint depressions are also
less so snow should develop fairly quickly without taking too
much time to saturate the low levels. Ensemble and deterministic
guidance have locked in to the storm track, with just some
minor differences. The surface cyclone is forecast to deepen is
it tracks NE from coastal N. Carolina this morning to just
south/east of Cape Cod this evening. This is a decent track for
moderate/heavy snow across much of our area. Overall residence
time will be limited though due to the progressive movement of
the system. However, there is potential for mesoscale banding,
with the synoptic pattern(open wave aloft and deepening cyclone
S/E of Albany off the coast) resembling a laterally quasi-
stationary band based on past CSTAR research. So as the forcing
increases, will have to watch for locally enhanced snowfall
rates. Anticipating generally 0.5-1.0"/hour rates, but higher
1-2"/hour rates could occur on the north/west of the deepening
cyclone coinciding with when increasing 850-700 mb F-Gen occurs
late this morning through this afternoon. The most likely
location of banding looks to be across S. VT and possibly into
the Berkshires. This is where highest totals are expected
(especially 9- 12" in the S. Greens). Borderline accumulations
(6-9") are expected in the rest of the Warning area, with no
other changes to the Warnings/Advisories except for the Warning
expansion in Fulton County. Generally 2-6" snow in the Advisory
area with the lowest amounts occurring where rain mixes in
(Dutchess/N. Litchfield).

In terms of precip type, all snow is expected for most of the
area. However, as the cyclone deepens east of the mid Atlantic
coast, temperatures warm into the mid 30s with snow mixing with
then changing to rain across central/southern Dutchess and
Litchfield counties this afternoon. The rain snow line could get
as far north as far S. Berkshire/Columbia counties later this
afternoon. NBM looked too far north with the mix line, so made
adjustments to account for colder/snowier scenario north of
Dutchess/Litchfield. Snow consistency should be generally on the
drier side(higher snow- liquid ratios) except near the
rain/snow line where SLRs will be lower.

Precip will generally taper off from west to east this evening
but should still be occurring through the evening commute
especially from the Hudson Valley east. Snow could linger east
of the Hudson Valley through much of the evening, but should end
by midnight. As the storm pulls away from the coast overnight,
NW flow will bring chilly temperatures with lows in the 10s to
around 20 degrees.

On Wed, surface ridging extending NE from high pressure
centered over the mid Atlantic region will bring tranquil but
cool conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Message:

- High confidence in below normal temperatures continuing
  through early next week.

Discussion:

Chances for snow showers increase from NW to SE late Wed night
into Thu associated with an Arctic cold front approaching from
the Great Lakes and SE Canada. Greatest likelihood of measurable
snow will be across favored westerly upslope areas to the west
of the Hudson Valley. There is a signal for snow squall
potential along the Arctic front, especially in the Adirondacks
Thu A.M. where the snow showers will be more widespread. Even
isolated snow squalls could occur farther SE across the rest of
the area Thu P.M. Will continue to monitor potential, but at
this time it appears the squalls should not affect most of the
major highways. Temperatures will drop significantly behind the
Arctic front late Thu into Thu night. Low temperatures will
easily be the coldest of the season so far, with widespread 0 to
-5F in most of the higher terrain to single digits in lower
elevations. With high pressure building in during the night,
winds should diminish. So at this time feels-like temperatures
are not expected to meet Cold Advisory criteria.

The remainder of the long term will feature below normal
temperatures, with just slight to low chance for snow over the
weekend. The storm track remains fairly active, but it appears
the bulk of snow from any systems look to remain south of our
area. Will continue to monitor trends as a slight northerly
shift in the storm track would bring snow more into play. High
pressure is then expected to build back in early next week with
dry conditions, but with continued cold temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 12z Wednesday...Flying conditions remain VFR at ALB/POU/PSF
as of 6:05 AM EST, with IFR vsbys at GFL as snow has already started
there. Snow should overspread ALB within the first hour or two of
the TAF period, and within the first 2-3 hours of the TAF valid
period at POU/PSF. Once snow starts, IFR or lower conditions should
prevail through the evening. IFR vsbys trend to LIFR by late morning
through early afternoon, and cigs trend from MVFR this morning to
IFR/LIFR by this afternoon as well. Have made slight adjustments to
the timing of the heaviest snow, but will continue to mention 1"+
per hour snowfall rates and 1/4SM vsbys within the heavier snow
bands this afternoon. Will also continue to mention that freezing
fog will be possible this afternoon. Increasing confidence that POU
will see at least a brief changeover to rain this afternoon/early
evening, but exact timing is still uncertain. Nevertheless, IFR
conditions still expected there even once snow mixes with or changes
to rain.

Snow should begin to diminish from west to east this evening. Still
some uncertainty as to the exact time, but increasing confidence it
will be within the window that was used for the prob30 groups this
evening. Once snow ends, vsbys should go back to VFR, but lingering
MVFR cigs expected well into tonight, with marginal improvement back
to VFR possible for the second half of tonight, especially at
GFL/POU. Winds will be light and variable to start the TAF period,
increasing to 5-10 kt from the N/NE by late morning. Winds this
evening shift more to the W/NW at 5-10 kt and become gusty this
evening, but gusts should subside after midnight (except at PSF)
with winds becoming more W/NW at 5-10 kt through the end of the TAF
period.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHSN.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for CTZ001.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ032-
     033-038-040-042-043-047-060-061-064>066.
     Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ039-041-
     048>054-058-059-063-082>084.
MA...Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Wednesday for MAZ001-025.
VT...Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Wednesday for VTZ013>015.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...07
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...35