041
FXUS61 KALY 261920
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
220 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
After a mild but mostly cloudy afternoon, a cold frontal passage
this evening into tonight will bring scattered showers and a
return to below normal temperatures. In the wake of the cold
front, lake effect snow is expected to impact the southern
Adirondacks, Mohawk Valley, and possibly the northern Catskills
with up to several inches of snow possible. We remain in an
active pattern beyond that, with additional rain/snow chances
Sunday and again towards the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Messages:

- A period of lake effect snow is expected later Thursday
  through Friday across portions of the Adirondacks and Mohawk
  Valley. Snowfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches are expected in
  the most persistent lake effect bands.

- A Lake Effect Snow Warning remains in effect for Northern
  Herkimer and Hamilton County from Thursday afternoon into
  Friday night. Southern Herkimer County has been added to the
  lake effect snow warning, and winter weather advisories for
  lake effect snow have been issued for Fulton, Montgomery, and
  Schoharie Counties from Thursday night through Saturday
  morning.

- Wind gusts between 30 and 40 mph on Thursday and Friday could
  lead to areas of blowing and drifting snow.

Discussion:

As of 2:15 PM EST...A 993 mb occluded low remains located over
the Great Lakes, and is vertically stacked beneath a potent
upper-level low (ULL) as seen on GOES 16 WV imagery. The
system`s warm front has mostly lifted north through the region
at this time, although there are still a few more sheltered
areas in the southern ADKs where the cold air hasn`t yet been
scoured out. For the rest of the region, however, temperatures
are well above normal with most areas in the 50s. Highs this
afternoon may even touch the low 60s for a few areas south of
I-90. While some isolated showers remain possible through the
afternoon for northern areas closer to the warm front, most of
the region will see generally dry but mostly cloudy conditions
through the afternoon.

The warmth will be short-lived, as the system`s cold front will
track through the region from west to east across the region
between 00-04z this evening. A narrow cold frontal rainband can
already be seen on radar across western PA and NY. It remains to
be seen if this feature will be able to hold together after
sunset as it tracks further east, but we should at least see
increased chances for showers with and ahead of the cold front.
The left exit of the upper jet nearby will provide additional
forcing for ascent, and given pockets of elevated instability an
isolated rumble of thunder or two can`t be ruled out. Winds will
become gusty behind the front as well from the southwest at up
to 20-30 mph. Precipitation chances should generally diminish as
we head through the night, with temperatures falling into the
20s (terrain) to 30s (valleys) within the cold advection regime.

Thursday and Thursday night...Thursday starts off mostly dry,
but with the strong southwest flow a band of snow will develop
off of Lake Erie, and some fragments of this band could extend
all the way into the Mohawk Valley or southeastern ADKs
Thursday. Any snow showers from this Lake Erie band will
generally be light with little to no accumulation in our CWA. A
separate band of snow off of Lake Ontario will be oriented
towards the St. Lawrence Valley through the first half of the
day, but will eventually drop south at some point Thursday
afternoon or evening. Exactly when this happens remains a point
of forecast uncertainty. Elsewhere across the region, a few
light snow showers can`t be ruled out but it will be generally
dry for Thanksgiving. Winds remain gusty at 20-30 mph, so with
highs only in the 30s to around 40 it will feel quite chilly.

Thursday night through Friday night...This is the main period of
focus for the lake effect snow across our area. As the ULL
tracks north of the International border, low-level flow
trajectories switch more to the west Thursday night and
eventually W/NW Friday into Friday night. This will allow the
band to continue to drop south Thursday night, where it will
remain across northern Herkimer and northwestern Hamilton
Counties. With considerable lake-induced instability (850 mb
temps of -8 to -10C and Lake Ontario water temps of +8 to +10C)
as well as good saturation and lift through the DGZ, snowfall
rates will likely exceed 1" per hour and may reach or exceed 2"
per hour across portions of northern Herkimer County. We have
continued the lake effect snow warning there, and are still
expecting up to 6-12" of snow where the band is most persistent.
Lows Thursday night will be in the 20s region- wide.

Late Thursday night or Friday morning, the lake effect band
drops southwards into the Mohawk Valley. Exactly how quickly
this happens remains a big point of uncertainty, but the Thruway
looks to be in the lake band possibly by 12z and certainly by
15z Friday morning. Some low-level directional shear may
briefly disrupt the intensity and inland extent of the band as
it is dropping south, but nevertheless moderate to heavy
snowfall rates will still result in very difficult travel
conditions within the band.

By Friday afternoon, low-level directional shear abates and the
band should once again become more organized. With inversion
heights remaining above 700 mb, 850 mb winds of around 40 kt,
and a multi-lake connection developing, the band will extend
well inland, likely bringing snow all the way into the high
terrain of western New England where there will be some upslope
enhancement. Probably the biggest forecast challenge is exactly
where the band will set up. Some sources of guidance favor the
band to sit almost over or just south of the Thruway, while
other sources have it settling slightly further south across the
sawtooth of southern Herkimer County and Schoharie Valley,
extending into the Hudson Valley. Given this uncertainty, have
taken a middle- ground approach for now. Will note, however,
that we did increase snowfall amounts to up to a couple inches
for areas just south of the immediate Capital District given the
expected inland extent of the band. Wherever the band sets up,
it will likely remain fairly stationary into Friday night, then
may shift back slightly further north after midnight Friday
night, potentially putting more of the Mohawk Valley in play.
However, by this time, winds will be starting to weaken and
inversion heights will be lowering, so the inland extent and
intensity of the band should both be reduced.

Given all of the above, we upgraded southern Herkimer County to
a Lake Effect Snow warning, as somewhere will likely see >7",
with the most likely areas just south of the Thruway. We have
also issued winter weather advisories for Fulton, Montgomery,
and Schoharie Counties where >4" of snow is possible. Best
chance for these higher snowfall amounts is in western portions
of Fulton/Montgomery and northern Schoharie. Timing for the
advisories and the new warning will be 06z Friday to 12z
Saturday. Fulton and/or Montgomery Counties may be able to be
trimmed out of the advisory earlier than 12z Saturday if the
band does indeed settle a little bit further to the south. While
some lake effect snow showers will likely linger into Saturday
morning for the far western Mohawk Valley, snowfall rates and
amounts will be much lighter than on Friday. Snow showers here
should come to an end by Saturday afternoon.

The other story will be the winds Thursday night and Friday.
Winds remain gusty out of the northwest, but will be stronger on
Friday at 30-40 mph, especially where flow is channeled down the
Mohawk Valley, through the Capital District, and into the
Berkshires. While it looks very borderline whether or not winds
will hit advisory criteria (46 mph), the wind will lead to
blowing and drifting of snow that has already fallen,
potentially making it difficult to keep roads clear. Within the
lake effect bands (especially the further west one goes), the
combination of moderate to heavy snow along with the wind will
likely lead to significantly reduced visibilities and very
difficult travel conditions. Temperatures will be mainly in the
20s (terrain) to 30s (valleys) Friday and Saturday with lows
Friday night in the 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Surface high pressure and upper ridging briefly build over the
region Saturday evening and night, but clouds will be on the
increase ahead of our next weather system. A negatively tilted
upper shortwave will be tracking from the Ohio Valley through
the Great Lakes and Sunday. Ahead of this system, the isentropic
lift and warm advection ahead of its warm front will lead to
precipitation breaking out across the region Sunday morning.
Valley areas may see some brief snow or a rain/snow mix at the
onset, but then transition to plain rain as we warm through the
day. Higher elevation areas may see more in the way of snow,
with a couple to a few inches possible. Precipitation becomes
more widespread (mainly rain for valley and rain/snow for the
high terrain) with the system`s cold frontal passage Sunday
night.

Depending on the exact track of the system, we may see another
round of lake effect snow in its wake Sunday night into Monday,
but it is too early to pin down the location of any potential
lake effect bands right now. Nevertheless, we have high
confidence that any resulting lake effect will be much less than
what is expected Thursday night and Friday.

As the system`s cold front tracks off to our east, broad upper
troughing remains over the eastern half to 2/3 of the CONUS. A
southern stream shortwave will be tracking around the periphery
of the upper trough. As it emerges off the east coast,
cyclogenesis will take place. Whether the resulting sfc low
tracks south and east of our region out to sea or gets close
enough to bring precipitation (snow) to the region remains to be
seen. If the southern stream feature is more progressive and
can go negatively tilted, this would increase the chances of at
least our southeastern areas getting in on the precip. However,
if the southern stream feature is slower and the whole upper
flow configuration remains more positively tilted then a more
out to sea scenario would be likely. Sunday will be the warmest
day of the long term with highs in the 30s (terrain) to 40s
(valleys), with more below normal temperatures for early to the
middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18z Thursday...MVFR to IFR and even patchy LIFR
conditions prevail across the TAF sites this afternoon as ample
low-level moisture sits beneath an inversion. Some improvements
can be anticipated here over the next couple of hours however,
as visible satellite imagery shows some patchy clearing
especially in downsloped areas near ALB and PSF. TEMPO groups
were added to the TAFs accordingly.

Patchy clearing won`t be long lasting this afternoon as clouds
race ahead of a potent incoming cold front and upper-level
disturbance. A batch of rain showers is anticipated as a result
of these features as well later this evening, forcing the return
to MVFR to IFR conditions almost everywhere. However, rapidly
drying air behind the front should translate to rapid
improvements in ceiling height behind the showers. Therefore,
VFR conditions, once realized late tonight, should remain in
place through much of the remainder of the 18z TAF period.

Winds will begin the period out of the south to southwest a
light speeds under 10 kt. However, the passage of the cold front
will force the rapid veer to the west to northwest through the
end of the period. At this point, winds will become breezy with
sustained speeds reaching 8 to 12 kt with paired gusts of 15 to
25 kt.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHSN.
Friday: High Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 38 kts. Likely SHSN.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHSN.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...SHSN.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...SHSN.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Lake Effect Snow Warning from 4 PM Thursday to 1 AM EST
     Saturday for NYZ032-033.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning from 1 AM Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday
     for NYZ038.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday
     for NYZ039-040-047-082.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...35
SHORT TERM...35
LONG TERM...35
AVIATION...37