Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
331 FXUS64 KAMA 171702 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1202 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1145 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 -There is a low chance for an isolated thunderstorm in the eastern combined Panhandles this evening and overnight. -Watching for frost potential into Sunday morning, especially for the NW Panhandles. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Saturday night) Issued at 1145 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 Today into Sunday, the focus is on a positively tilted mid to upper level shortwave trough that is progged to swing into and through the combined Panhandles. The trough axis is currently running from southern CA northeast into northern CO. Based on current GOES water vapor imagery lots of mid to upper level dry air is in place over the combined Panhandles. The majority of the combined Panhandles will be remaining dry this evening into the overnight. However, there is some minor H7 theta-e advection in the far eastern to southeastern Texas Panhandle. PoPs have been around 20 to 30 percent, but then dropped to 10 to 20 percent last night, now the NBM is giving less than 10 percent chance for any measurable rain in the southeastern FA tonight. Have kept mentionable 10 pops for this area but the moisture may just be too inadequate for measurable rain. Areas further east and south outside of the FA will have better chances to see isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Tomorrow morning, as the shortwave trough axis swings into the Panhandles, models suggest some showery activity in the far far southeastern TX Panhandle. This will all depend on the ability for some moisture to surge far enough north and meet with the dynamics from the passing shortwave. 20 to 30 PoPs will be spread across mainly Donley and Collingsworth County. By morning, temperatures in the northwest are progged to drop into the low 40s while central areas see lows in the upper 40s to 50. The southeast were showers may be possible, are progged to see lows in low to mid 50s. A weak cold front is progged to move into the Panhandles tomorrow afternoon. This front is expected to bring slightly breezy northerly winds and keep temperatures in the 70s across the area for Saturday afternoon. Overnight into Sunday morning the pressure gradient will relax as the post frontal surface high fills into the Panhandles. This will let winds drop off and become calm and variable. Really light winds and clear skies are expected to help temperatures drop into the 30s in the northwest and 40s to the southeast. There is a potential that some areas in the northwestern combined Panhandles may see temps drop below 36 if the winds are light enough. This may pose a threat for frost Sunday morning. Depending on how much the winds drop this frost potential may even bleed into the southwestern TX Panhandle, but mainly expected for areas around Dalhart northward. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 1145 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 For Sunday, the effects of cold front are expected to be shortlived with the surface high moving out quickly. By Sunday afternoon breezy southwest winds return to the area warming temperatures into the mid to upper 70s with clear skies. Upper level ridging is progged to build back into the area with Monday being even warmer in the 80s, at least for the central to southern TX Panhandle. Models are brining in a cold front much earlier on Monday now, but with less of a pressure gradient. Therefore, the winds are not progged to be as breezy as in previous forecasts. Behind this front overnight into Tuesday H85 temperatures are progged to fall near 9 to 10 degrees C leading to afternoon highs around 70 for Tue. Mostly benign weather in the long term continues into Wed and Thu as well with a slight warm up Wed with highs near 80 before returning closer to 70 once again on Thu. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1145 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 A fairly quiet TAF period with VFR conditions is expected. Winds should decrease from around 10 kts now to calm and variable overnight from 00Z to 12Z Saturday. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...36 LONG TERM....36 AVIATION...36