224
FXUS64 KAMA 292245
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
445 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1205 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

-Very cold temperatures for Sunday and Monday in the wake of the
 cold front.

-Few light snow showers for the far NE Panhandles on Monday, with
 another weak system for the chance to see additional winter
 precipitation later in the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 1205 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

The cold front has made its way through the Panhandles this
morning with cold temperatures moving south into the region. If we
can break through some of the cloud coverage this afternoon, the
southern Texas Panhandle may reach the lower to mid 40s. As seen
with the latest 18Z RAOB data for AMA, quite the notable sfc-H700
CAA has entered the Panhandles region. Although cloud coverage
will increase from NW to SE across the region ahead of our next
weather system, temperatures tonight will drop into the teens for
low temperatures tonight. With said cloud cover hanging tough
across the Panhandles, went a handful of degrees below the NBM
25th percentile for high temperatures tomorrow. Areas along the
I-40 corridor and points north may only reach the lower 30s for
high temperatures tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 1205 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

With a notable area of (-)vorticity advection displacing the
better H850-700 theta-e advection into western Oklahoma by Monday
morning ahead of the next mid level trough, this is likely a cause
of the model output continue to drop probabilities of 1" of snow
down to around 10% chance for the far northeastern Panhandles by
late Monday morning. The displaced moisture and lift overall
should also keep best winter precipitation chances further north
and east. Cannot completely rule out a light dusting of snow as
far south as the far northern TX Panhandle. System should quickly
exit by Monday afternoon.

Dry conditions with a series of front dropping temperatures back
to below average will continue throughout most of the long term
forecast period. The only exception could be Thursday night where
some of the latest 29/12Z model and numerical data brings around
a 20% chance of rain/snow showers for part of the TX Panhandle
from another weak disturbance.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 442 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours.
Clear skies may gain a broken deck around 8k to 9k feet, mainly
after 17Z. North winds will fall below 10 kts before turning
around the clock to the south and pick up to around 15 kts after
19Z.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...36