Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
393 FXUS64 KAMA 221748 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1148 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1147 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025 - Patchy fog will be possible across the northern combined Panhandles Sunday morning. - Expecting a wave of showers and isolated/brief thunderstorms across the Panhandles starting Sunday morning and lasting through Sunday night. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Sunday night) Issued at 1147 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025 Low clouds are currently present across portions of the southern Texas Panhandle, and if these clouds persist much longer into the afternoon, will have to adjust temperatures downward. Otherwise, expecting clouds to clear by the mid to late afternoon. Meanwhile, latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level low spinning just west of Baja California with ALPW showing a plume of subtropical moisture west of Mexico slowly creep northward by the cyclonic flow around the upper-level low. This moisture will get advected into the Panhandles overnight and through tomorrow as the upper-level system moves east. As this happens, showers with isolated/brief thunderstorms are favored from Sunday morning through late Sunday night. Forecast soundings show PWAT values between 0.70" to 1.00" which is between the 90th to 99th percentile for late November. However, CAPE looks very meager; less than 200 J/kg. This suggests that, while the saturated profile will cause this activity to produce some decent rain rates for late November, the general lack of instability and limited potential for thunderstorms argues in favor of more light rain/showery activity rather than moderate rainfall... though any thunderstorm that can occur will produce a quick bout of moderate rain. QPF has been on a downward trend across much of the area, though the western Panhandles have a better chance to reach or exceed 0.50": The NBM is showing a 30-50% chance across the western Panhandles, 10- 30% across the central Panhandles; meanwhile the HREF is showing a 10-30% chance across the western Panhandles with a 0-10% across much of the rest of the CWA. Will lean toward the HREF given the previously mentioned concerns about relatively low rain rates and the unfavorable setup for prolonged rainfall. Rain will come to an end from west to east through Sunday night. Vanden Bosch && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 1147 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025 An upper-level system will be progressing eastward, away from the Panhandles, to start Monday. A weak cold front will move in from the northwest, but the sunny sky will allow for temperatures to warm into the 60s. Another upper-level trough is expected to dip into the Northern Plains on Tuesday as a cold front will push through the Great Plains. Latest model guidance has the cold front moving through the Panhandles late Tuesday afternoon and through the evening. There is a fairly steep surface pressure gradient associated with this cold front which indicates the potential for breezy/gusty winds along and behind the cold front. Wednesday will be a cooler than normal day behind the cold front with highs expected to be in the low-50s. Surface winds will turn southerly late Wednesday as a high pressure system shifts off to the east, allowing temperatures to warm for Thanksgiving; currently expecting highs ranging from the mid-50s to low-60s for the Holiday. Vanden Bosch && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1121 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025 Fog and low clouds persist over Amarillo at this time, but should dissipate in the early afternoon hours. Will have to watch for fog late tonight and into Sunday morning at KGUY and KDHT. Showers with a low chance for thunderstorms will move in late Sunday morning into KDHT and KAMA. Have left thunder mentions out of the TAFs for now given the low confidence of occurring, but may eventually be needed. Vanden Bosch && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...52 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...52