131
FXUS64 KAMA 301853
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1253 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1139 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

-A cold front will bring high temperatures potentially back into
 the 30s by Thursday.

-Looking at our next chance of winter precipitation Wednesday
 night into Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 1139 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

As of the latest 18Z obs across the Panhandles, temperatures
continue to remain below freezing with temperatures ranging from
the mid 20s to lower 30s. Not too much more of a climb likely for
temperatures today with strong low level CAA in place. Latest hi-
res guidance continue to show scant moisture tonight ahead of the
main mid level perturbation entering the southern High Plains
late tonight into tomorrow morning. With enough lift ahead of the
trough axis to counteract (-) vorticity advection, we could have
flurries and a few light snow showers for mainly the far NE
Panhandles tomorrow morning before the main H500 trough exits the
region. Measurable snow at this time reaching an inch is less than
10 percent at this time. High temperatures tomorrow will range
from the mid 30s in the northern Panhandles to mid 40s in the
southern TX Panhandles. Overnight low temperatures tonight and
tomorrow night will range from the mid teens to the lower 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1139 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Dry conditions will continue through mid week as NW to W H500 flow
ahead of our next mid level trough bring mostly clear skies. As of
the latest 30/12Z model and numerical data, an H500 positive
tilted trough moving east out of New Mexico may bring additional
winter precipitation Wednesday night into Thursday. Decent H700
(+) theta-e advection into the region ahead of the main trough
axis, along with good low level DGZ profiles may result in latest
ensemble probs approaching 30% on the TX/NM stateline for an inch
of snow potential by Thursday evening. Many elements to watch with
trends of the tracking of the system and moisture profiles, so
check back for the latest updates to the forecast as we get closer
to Thursday. What we are more confident in by Thursday is the
another shot of cold temperatures with highs on Thursday
struggling to get out of the 30s.

Temperatures over the long term forecast period will be a roller
coaster theme once again with high temperatures near average
Tues-Wed before dropping well below average for Thursday. High
temperatures will then rebound back to near average with dry
conditions to end the long term forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1119 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

VFR conditions are expected for the 18Z TAF period at all TAF
sites. Winds will be out of the south to start, then shifting to
westerly and northwesterly after 07-09Z through the end of the TAF
period with speeds of 5-15 kts.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...29