046
FXUS64 KAMA 040518
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1118 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1111 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

Warm temperatures and even record highs are projected across the
combined Panhandles today. Above normal temperatures are projected
to continue for the rest of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1111 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

Near term guidance and NBM ensemble members show increasing
confidence in meeting or exceeding record highs at almost all
climate sites today. The only exception potentially being Dalhart,
as there is only a 15% chance to reach 85 degrees this afternoon.
Meanwhile, the Palo Duro Canyon has a 50% to reach 90 degrees or
warmer today. These unusually warm temperatures for this time of
year may impact unprepared hikers. While no products will be issued
for this hazard, heat safety practices are advised for those
planning to endure the afternoon heat.

A cold front and corresponding surface low is expected to transition
southeastward across the CWA Wednesday morning. Day time
temperatures are forecast to retreat back into the 70`s, but perhaps
linger in the 80`s in the PDC. Surface winds behind the front should
be breezy, flowing from the northeast.

Rangel

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 1111 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

High pressure generally remains prominent during the extended
period. After Wednesday, a couple more shortwave troughs are
expected to dig into the High Plains. The next one is expected to
arrive on Friday. Then the second front, the stronger of the two,
will impact the CWA on Sunday. The remaining days inbetween frontal
activity this week will experience warm air advection as heights re-
rise in the wake of our fronts.

Highs for the rest of the week are forecast to propagate back and
forth between the 70`s and 80`s. It may not be until next week where
we see high temperatures return to average or below average values.
Surface winds should stay light to occasionally breezy. Poor
moisture quality over the area and no signs of moisture advection
amongst guidance will continue to keep PoPs absent from the days 3-7
forecast. Fire weather concerns remain low this week due to mostly
light winds, but will continue to be monitored.

Rangel

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1111 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

No major changes were made for the 06Z TAF period.

Breezy winds are forecast to flow over AMA through the night and
into the morning hours. Southwesterly winds will ramp up by the
afternoon, gusting up to 25 kts at times. While surface winds are
expected to be lighter at the other two sites, low level wind
shear may affect GUY early this morning.

Rangel

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...55