Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
016 FXUS64 KAMA 111121 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 621 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025 Strong winds are expected today and tomorrow. Wind speeds should even linger through the night time hours. Low PoPs (<10%) this afternoon and evening in the northwest Panhandles. Our next rain chances return Sunday night. Much cooler highs Monday and Tuesday next week, likely ranging in the 60`s and 70`s. && .UPDATE... Issued at 620 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025 Warm and mostly dry conditions are expected today across the Panhandles. Breezy to gusty south winds are expected after sunrise today and could be upwards of 40 mph or slightly stronger. Based on the latest model guidance, have slightly increased the highest gusts over the previous forecast. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast remains on track. Muscha && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday night) Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025 A tightening pressure gradient over the region and downslope winds from the high terrain will create strong mid level and surface level wind speeds for the next two days. The locations primed to experience the strongest winds our the areas of higher topography in our CWA. The northwestern Panhandles should see strong >25 mph sustained wind speeds during the afternoon, with gusts >40 mph having a moderate chance to occur. Elsewhere, sustained wind speeds should range between 20-25 mph, with gusts up to 30 mph at times. Short range guidance continues to keeps winds strong overnight, which could lead to further warm air advection and increase Sunday morning lows to the 60`s and even 70`s range in the eastern Panhandles. Above normal temperatures continue in the short term while the ridge is over the area. Highs are forecast to generally remain in the 80`s. No major chances for fire weather concerns either. RFTI values stay wind driven, with no support from RH or ERC Percentiles on either day this weekend. Rangel && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025 High confidence in a cold front impacting our area by Monday continues at the forefront of the extended period. Frontal speed and arrival timing is still somewhat ambiguous amongst mid and long range guidance. If the front stalls over the area, the low pressure system will allow continued moisture advection into the High Plains. PoPs may increase on Monday and even extend into Tuesday according to several model ensembles and even the NBM 5.0. Whether the front stalls or pushes through, it seems temperatures still have a high chance of decreasing below normal into the 60`s and some lower 70`s on Monday. A faster cold front may lead to stronger northerly winds over the CWA to keep temperatures cool for the day. Meanwhile, a stalled boundary will promote overcast cloud coverage to linger through the day, and rain cooled air will allow temperatures to stay cool on Monday as well as Tuesday. Long range model guidance continues to show a vague "roller coaster" weather pattern for the rest of the period. High pressure will attempt to invade the combined Panhandles from the south, while large scale troughs continue to dig into the High Plains and suppress the high pressure. On days cold fronts are not anticipated, like next Wednesday and Thursday, expect highs to return to the 80`s. If our next front arrives next weekend, expect temperatures to drop below normal once again. The reintroduction of the upper ridge should also disrupt precipitation chances, but moisture advection is possible upon the entrance of our next potential frontal boundary. Rangel && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 620 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025 VFR conditions are forecast over the next 24 hours. Winds will remain out of the south with gusts during the daytime hours upwards of 30-35 kts. Occasional gusts will continue through the overnight hours due to sustained winds up to 15-20 mph. High clouds will remain over the region. Muscha && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...55 LONG TERM....55 AVIATION...05