Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
928 FXUS64 KAMA 122317 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 517 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1100 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025 - Above average temperatures through the work week and into the weekend. Low to moderate chance for record high temperatures on Thursday and Friday. - A weather system arriving Sunday night brings cooler conditions and low chances for precipitation Monday and Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday night) Issued at 1100 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025 A ridge of high pressure remains across the southern plains for the next couple of days. This will continue the stretch of warm and dry weather for the panhandles for both these days. The temperatures are slightly cooler today as the cooler air from yesterday`s cold front is passing over the panhandles. The temperatures become warmer again on Thursday with a low to moderate chance that they get close to record highs. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1100 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025 The ridge of high pressure has a high chance of remaining across the southern plains on Friday and a moderate chance of lingering through Saturday. While this ridge of high pressure remains across the region the panhandles will continue to see warmer than normal conditions. Friday is most likely the warmest day of the week with a moderate chance for the highs to be near or even reach record levels. Even if the high pressure remains over the southern plains on Saturday it will most likely weaken leading to a small drop in the temperatures. The weekend weather system still has a moderate chance of impacting the southern plains by Sunday. The trajectory of this system has remained with a northerly track across the southern plains. The big change has been to the strength of the weather system with most ensembles favoring a weaker weather system. This has a significant impact on what this weather system will bring to the panhandles. With a weaker weather system there is a very high chance that the panhandles will see no precipitation. In the low chance that the panhandles actually lucks out with some moisture the resulting precipitation will most likely result in spotty very low accumulations. This weaker weather system solution will also struggle to flatten out the high pressure so the drop in temperatures will most likely be smaller as well. The timing of this weaker weather system will favor a later arrival occurring almost entirely within Sunday to Sunday night. There is a moderate chance that the high pressure will reestablish itself over the souther plains on Monday and Tuesday leading to another round of drier conditions. For mid week there is building confidence that another weather system will form in the western U.S. and then move to the southern plains. There is already indications that this weather system may bring a round of wetter weather to the panhandles. However it is still to early to say for sure what impacts such a system may bring as it could weaken out just like the weekend system is now expected to do. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 515 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24 hours with winds starting off out of the southeast transitioning more southwesterly in the 5 to 10 kt range. For most sites after 12z we`ll likely be light and variable. Skies will have few to scattered high clouds. Weber && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...98 LONG TERM....98 AVIATION...89