504
FXUS64 KAMA 222304
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
504 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1147 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

- Patchy fog will be possible across the northern combined
Panhandles Sunday morning.

- Expecting a wave of showers and isolated/brief thunderstorms
across the Panhandles starting Sunday morning and lasting through
Sunday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 1147 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Low clouds are currently present across portions of the southern
Texas Panhandle, and if these clouds persist much longer into the
afternoon, will have to adjust temperatures downward. Otherwise,
expecting clouds to clear by the mid to late afternoon.

Meanwhile, latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level low
spinning just west of Baja California with ALPW showing a plume of
subtropical moisture west of Mexico slowly creep northward by the
cyclonic flow around the upper-level low. This moisture will get
advected into the Panhandles overnight and through tomorrow as the
upper-level system moves east. As this happens, showers with
isolated/brief thunderstorms are favored from Sunday morning through
late Sunday night. Forecast soundings show PWAT values between 0.70"
to 1.00" which is between the 90th to 99th percentile for late
November. However, CAPE looks very meager; less than 200 J/kg. This
suggests that, while the saturated profile will cause this activity
to produce some decent rain rates for late November, the general
lack of instability and limited potential for thunderstorms argues
in favor of more light rain/showery activity rather than moderate
rainfall... though any thunderstorm that can occur will produce a
quick bout of moderate rain.

QPF has been on a downward trend across much of the area, though the
western Panhandles have a better chance to reach or exceed 0.50":
The NBM is showing a 30-50% chance across the western Panhandles, 10-
30% across the central Panhandles; meanwhile the HREF is showing a
10-30% chance across the western Panhandles with a 0-10% across much
of the rest of the CWA. Will lean toward the HREF given the
previously mentioned concerns about relatively low rain rates and
the unfavorable setup for prolonged rainfall.

Rain will come to an end from west to east through Sunday night.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 1147 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

An upper-level system will be progressing eastward, away from the
Panhandles, to start Monday. A weak cold front will move in from the
northwest, but the sunny sky will allow for temperatures to warm
into the 60s.

Another upper-level trough is expected to dip into the Northern
Plains on Tuesday as a cold front will push through the Great
Plains. Latest model guidance has the cold front moving through the
Panhandles late Tuesday afternoon and through the evening. There is
a fairly steep surface pressure gradient associated with this cold
front which indicates the potential for breezy/gusty winds along and
behind the cold front.

Wednesday will be a cooler than normal day behind the cold front
with highs expected to be in the low-50s. Surface winds will turn
southerly late Wednesday as a high pressure system shifts off to the
east, allowing temperatures to warm for Thanksgiving; currently
expecting highs ranging from the mid-50s to low-60s for the Holiday.


Vanden Bosch

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 329 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

VFR conditions will persist at all terminals through the rest of
today. Overnight there is a moderate chance for a bank of fog to
form in the northern panhandles. This is most likely to impact
KDHT and KGUY with IFR or worse conditions. KAMA has a lesser
chance for the heavier fog with the TAF reflecting a lighter mist.
A weather system then arrives in the panhandles during the morning
hours of Sunday. As this system approaches it will most likely
help lift the fog bank into a low level cloud deck. This would
then combine with the cloud bank of the weather system leading to
broad MVFR conditions across the panhandles for the morning into
the afternoon hours. Light rain showers are expected to impact all
terminals during the morning to early afternoon hours. There is a
very low chance that a few of the showers becoming strong enough
to turn into thunderstorms. However the threat of thunderstorms
was to low to be carried within the current TAFs. Late in the
afternoon more so towards the evening the weather system departs
leading to improving conditions.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...98