Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
256 FXUS64 KAMA 021055 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 555 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1227 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 - Warm and dry conditions are favored to continue across the Panhandles through at least this weekend with highs in the 80s to lower 90s. - A system is expected to brush across the Northern Panhandles Sunday inviting a 10 to 20% chance for storms. - Confidence is low, but the potential for temperatures near or slightly below average along with rain chances may return to the Panhandles early to the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday night) Issued at 1227 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 As of early this morning latest surface analysis has kept a weak surface boundary present over the Central Panhandles. While chances are less than 5%, there are few CAMs that have seen a few showers start off this boundary this afternoon with potential to repeat again Friday. However, most of these same CAMs are also producing soundings that would suggest that these showers may not produce rainfall that actually make it to the ground. Instead, the Panhandles may see more virga then anything, which could lead to isolated gusty outflow winds during both afternoons. Otherwise, look for the upper-level ridge to hold with a majority of the Panhandles staying dry outside of these low chances. Meanwhile, afternoon high temperatures are looking stay in the upper 80s to low 90s through Friday. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 1227 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Dry weather looks to start off the weekend for the Panhandles as model agreement sees the upper-level ridge hold through Saturday. However, most models expect this ridge to begin to exit late that night as a building trough begins to progress eastward from Southern Nevada. Currently present trends for this trough have it take a more northerly track across Colorado, which leaves only the Northern Panhandles with 10 to 20% chance of showers Sunday. Chance for precipitation do look to improve as we move into the new week with models seeing a secondary trough push into the Pacific Northwest as a upper-level high pressure system builds across the Southern Untied States. While this pattern will leave us a bit stagnate in the upper-levels Monday, it will also invite moisture from the gulf to return with some models seeing PWAT values rise back above one inch. Added to this moisture will be the potential for a short-wave disturbance to move across the Panhandles and give us a lifting mechanism. However, models are still a bit uncertain on the placement and strengthen of the short-wave with current guidance only suggesting around a 20 to 30% chance of storms for Monday. From here models only struggle more as the try to decide on the progression of the trough eastward through the middle of next week. At this time the NBM is still in favor or some activity making its way into the Panhandles Tuesday, but these chances are only around 20 to 40%. Regardless the progression of the low will likely see temperature cool through next week with afternoon highs in the 80s to 90s this weekend dropping into the 70s by Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 553 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 VFR conditions are expected through at least the next 24 hours. Winds will generally stay at around 10 kts or less with varying wind directions ranging from southwesterly to southeasterly. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...52