Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
770 FXUS64 KAMA 161112 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 512 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1030 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 - Above average temperatures persist through at least Tuesday, with each day getting gradually cooler. - Next significant weather system looks to be on the horizon for Wednesday night through Friday, with increased precipitation chances. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 1030 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 Quiet and mild weather will be maintained across the Panhandles to start the 3rd week of November. Ridging is still in place for the region today as a closed H500 low encroaches upon the southern coast of California. This low will be ushered eastward across the Rockies and over the central Plains tomorrow (passing just north of the Panhandles), when another system over the Pacific northwest follows in tow. This pattern should perpetuate highs in the 70s and lows in the 40s both days. With passage of the upper low to our north on Monday, a Pacific front will push from west to east across the Panhandles. Breezy 15-25 mph sustained winds out of the west will be generated as a result, with low probabilities (10-40%) for a few gusts to exceed 40 mph across the central to southern Panhandles. Harrel && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 1030 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 A very weak frontal passage Tuesday provides a slight cool down for yet another uneventful weather day with highs in the 60s and 70s. By mid week, synoptic flow shifts out of the southwest ahead of the next approaching upper level low. Moisture will start to slowly transport back to the Panhandles through the day and into the overnight hours as better 700mb theta-e is advected, along with slightly higher sfc dew points. Subtle disturbances within the flow are progged to initiate scattered shower opportunities across much of the CWA, potentially lingering through the day Thursday. The main caveat for how long rain can last and just how much moisture ends up over the Panhandles may greatly depend on the track of the low as it ejects over the Plains. Current deterministic model projections take this low just north of the forecast area, which would favor a pronounced dry slot moving in Thursday, ending precipitation chances earlier than the NBM currently indicates. However, looking at ensemble outputs shows several members still producing heavier rainfall totals for the central to eastern Panhandles through Friday. In general, lighter totals of a few hundredths to a couple tenths of an inch would be most likely in the current forecast scenario, with some outlier potential for higher totals greater than 0.50" if a more favorable system evolution unfolds (20-50% chance for eastern counties). Temperatures will cool to the 50s and 60s during this time frame, with another weak cold front arriving Friday. Overnight lows below freezing appear likely by Saturday morning. Harrel && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 510 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 Dry weather looks to hold behind the frontal passage yesterday with all terminals expected to hold at VFR conditions levels. Surface winds are expected to pick up during the afternoon hours, but gusts should stay below 25kt for the day. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...38 LONG TERM....38 AVIATION...11