Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
689 FXUS64 KAMA 080451 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1051 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1048 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 No impactful weather is currently expected within the next seven days. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 1048 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 Water vapor satellite imagery shows that the Panhandles are currently between two shortwave troughs; one shortwave moving into the Ohio Valley/Southern US and another over the Pacific Northwest. As the shortwave trough progresses southeastward, a surface low will develop in the Northern Plains on Monday with a very weak/quasi- stationary front extending southward through the High Plains and into the northwestern combined Panhandles. Temperatures will warm into the mid-50s to around 60 degrees across the area. Temperatures will warm further on Tuesday as southwesterly flow becomes more widespread and 850mb temperatures reach into the 75th to 90th percentile for the second week of December. With the downsloping surface winds, sunny sky, and warm 850mb temperatures, highs will be in the mid- to upper-60s across the Panhandles with a 20-50% chance for highs to reach or exceed 70 degrees in the northwestern combined Panhandles and a 10-30% chance for the southeastern Texas Panhandle. A weak cold front will move in Tuesday night but temperatures will be in the 30s. Vanden Bosch && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1048 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 Calm weather is expected on Wednesday as a surface high pressure moves through. Winds will turn the dial through the day, ending up with southwesterlies through Wednesday night and at least a portion of Thursday. Anomalously warm 850mb temperatures will once again advect into the Panhandles and we`ll see temperatures on Thursday warm into the upper-60s to low-70s. The northwestern combined Panhandles and the southwestern Texas Panhandle have around a 10-25% chance for high temperatures to reach or exceed 75 degrees. A more potent shortwave trough is forecast to traverse across the Upper Midwest and into the Ohio Valley on Thursday and Thursday night as a cold front moves south through the Plains. There is significant disagreement among operational and ensemble member camps; the GFS/GEFS largely move this front through later on Thursday while the ECMWF/EPS/GEPS move the front in Friday. Regardless, this will set the stage for a weekend of dry weather and cooler than normal temperatures. Vanden Bosch && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1048 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 VFR conditions are expected through at least the next 24 hours. Winds will be around 10 kts at KAMA during the day Monday before weakening in the evening, otherwise winds will generally be variable at around 5 kts or less. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...52 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...52