Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
548 FXUS64 KAMA 180428 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1128 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 938 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 -Watching frost potential early Sunday morning, especially for the northwestern Panhandles. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tomorrow night) Issued at 938 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 Latest 04-05Z obs across the region shows about 90-95% of the Panhandles with variable winds and Td values ranging between the upper 30s and mid 40s. The only exception will be the far SE Texas Panhandle with a south wind and mid 50s Td values. Further aloft, water vapor satellite analysis shows the main H500 positive tilted trough axis continue to move east and finally through the Panhandles and into western Oklahoma by mid morning. Out along the main trough axis, in-conjunction with slight Td convergence zone in the SE TX Panhandle, this area will have the best chance of a shower or storm through mid morning before the main disturbance moves quickly to the east. A cold front will move south through the Panhandles later this afternoon. Some breezy northerly winds in the wake of the cold front is possible leading up to sunset. These winds will quickly dissipate to light and variable winds through tonight. With a surface high pressure system building into the Panhandles behind the front, in-conjunction with H850 CAA dropping below 8C by early Sunday morning under clear skies, watching a good chance for frost to develop. The most likely locations for frost will be the NW Panhandles. After high temperatures in the lower 70s to lower 80s, low temperatures tonight in the wake of the front will range from the mid 30s in the western and northwestern Panhandles to mid 40s in the SE TX Panhandle. May have to issue Frost headlines for portions of the area later tonight if trends continue to show these conditions. A low amplitude H500 ridge over the southern High Plains will keep temperatures near average with highs ranging from the lower to upper 70s under mostly clear skies. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 938 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 Dry conditions are expected throughout the majority of the long term forecast period. A series of front and subtle mid level perturbations will allow temperatures to roller coaster throughout the coming week, from highs above average to near average, depending on the day. Rain chances could return by the end of the forecast period from a potential disturbance, if the latest global model data continues with this trend going forward. Will update accordingly as we get closer with time. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 621 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 VFR conditions expected throughout the 00Z TAF period at all TAF sites. Winds will be out of the north and northwest at 10-20 kts with mostly clear skies. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...29 LONG TERM....29 AVIATION...29