Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
904 FXUS64 KAMA 181121 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 521 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1039 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 - Above average temperatures persist through Wednesday, with highs returning to near average Thursday onward. - Rain chances increase Wednesday through Friday, with low probabilities for more beneficial rainfall totals across the central to eastern Panhandles. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 1039 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 Today`s weather will be inconsequential as we sit in between upper level systems. Today will be quite dry with significantly lighter winds than yesterday, partly cloudy skies, and highs in the 60s and 70s. Wednesday will be a touch warmer as a closed low passes over the Sonoran Desert, before it takes a westward jog towards the Plains. Southwest flow ahead of this disturbance will aid moisture return and increase PWAT values to 0.5-0.8", possibly exceeding 1.0" across the east which would reach or exceed climatological maximum values for mid November. These environmental parameters set the stage for what will likely be a wetter Wed night through Thursday, although we wouldn`t be befuddled to see spotty showers/weak storms starting as early as tomorrow afternoon across the far SE TX Panhandle where moisture and lift will initially be most prevalent. Overnight Wed into Thu morning is when we should see better rain chances beginning to spread north and westward over the region, pending the timing of the low. Model data supports 20-50% rain chances across the southern half of the forecast area during this time frame. Harrel && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 1039 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 Thursday remains the focal point of our precipitation opportunities, as waves of energy within the flow are progged to initiate scattered or perhaps even widespread showers across the Panhandles. POPs have begun increasing in tandem with model confidence, based on a more favorable track and timing progression of the low. Probabilities for any measurable rain throughout the day Thursday range from 50-80%, but the higher end chances are across central and eastern counties. Friday finds the system finally passing over the region, drawing some wrap around moisture on its northern flank which could perpetuate additional 20-30% shower chances for the northern Panhandles. By the end of the event, locations further west have a decent shot to see a couple tenths of an inch of rainfall (lower confidence due to potential dry air intrusion), but the central to eastern portions of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles have 20-50% probabilities to exceed 1" of rain, especially with more time to see multiple rounds of showers and storms. There`s still time for aspects of this system`s evolution to impact these forecast amounts, but for now, models are converging on a wetter outcome for much of the region. Temperatures will begin to settle in typical fall ranges later this week into next, topping out in the 50s and 60s, behind a weak cold front arriving Friday. Moisture will briefly take a vacation from our neck of the woods Saturday, but long range models have ramped up suggestions that we may be keeping an active stretch of weather going early next week. Several discrepancies exist between models regarding the track and timing of this hypothetical second system, but most data sets indicate it may pan out similarly to this week`s disturbance. Rain chances are lower for now, but still rather promising next Sun-Mon. Harrel && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 517 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 Latest satellite is currently seeing some scatter to broken cloud cover over the Panhandles this morning. However, present expectations for this cover will keep it high enough for all terminals to stay at VFR levels through the package. Meanwhile, surface winds are expected to stay mostly northerly to northeasterly for the later morning before turning more southerly by this evening. Either way, winds speed are expected to stay much lighter than yesterday. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...38 LONG TERM....38 AVIATION...11