584
FXUS64 KAMA 250532
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1132 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1124 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

- Dry conditions and no weather related travel impacts are
  expected leading up to and including Thanksgiving day for the
  Panhandles.

- A pattern shift this weekend into next week will likely lead to
  much cooler temperatures and the potential for wintry
  precipitation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1124 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

An H500 trough is forecast to move across the Dakotas on Tuesday
with the southern periphery of the front moving across the southern
High Plains. This trough will propel southward during the day and
should reach the Panhandles by mid morning. Breezy to gusty
northerly winds are expected behind the front with gusts upwards of
30-40 mph. The push of cold air behind the front is not all that
strong, but highs on Tuesday should remain in the 50s. Winds will
decrease going into Tuesday night and strong radiational cooling
will lead to lows below freezing area wide.

The slightly cooler air mass will remain in place over the
Panhandles on Wednesday. Another day with highs in the 50s are
expected with winds turning to out of the south by the afternoon
hours. Some cloud cover will be in place over the region during the
day, but no precip is expected with the PVA associated with the
trough well to the north of the CWA. Another night of below freezing
temperatures is currently expected for Wednesday night into
Thanksgiving morning.

Muscha

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 1124 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Upper level ridging is forecast to prevail on Thanksgiving and into
at least parts of Friday. Thanksgiving day looks to be a very nice
day for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles! Forecast highs are in the
mid to upper 50s with winds around 10 mph or less and mostly clear
skies. Thanksgiving night into Friday morning should have lows in
the 30s to upper 20s.

Attention continues to be with the well advertised pattern shift
this upcoming weekend into next week. There are still significant
differences in the model guidance, but what is known is that a
strong cold front will push south across the Plains sometime this
weekend or early next week. An initial push of cold air is forecast
on Friday night into Saturday with the first cold front, which will
lead to cooler temperatures this upcoming weekend. As of now, it
looks like the high temperatures this weekend should remain above
freezing, but there are a subset of ensembles (including AI based
deterministic guidance) that suggest highs on Sunday may remain
below freezing. A second, much stronger cold front should move
across the region early next week. There is a very wide range in
potential temperatures behind this front and looking at the model
guidance and forecast synoptic pattern, cannot completely rule out
record cool highs or record lows will be broken to start December.
The NBM is notoriously bad with forecasting high temperatures with
major pattern shifts like this, so would not be surprised if
temperatures this weekend into next week are below the current
forecast.

In addition to the cold air mass, a strong low pressure system is
forecast to dig southward towards the Desert Southwest. Just how
this trough and low pressure system evolve beyond that is highly
uncertain. This system may bring the first chances for wintry
precipitation to the southern High Plains. What precipitation type
will depend upon when this system moves towards the region and
what the temperatures are, which each of these elements are highly
uncertain. The details should become more clear as we approach
this weekend.

Muscha

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1124 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Light west to
northwest winds are forecast overnight before a cold front shifts
winds to out of the north late this morning. Winds behind the
front could have gusts upwards of 30-35 kts at the sites. Winds
will decrease back down to 10 kts or less at the end of this TAF
cycle. Mostly clear skies are expected.

Muscha

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...05