205
FXUS64 KAMA 101740
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1140 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1100 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

- Above average temperatures and at times breezy conditions are
  forecasted this new week.

- A weather system for the weekend brings cooler conditions and
  low chances for precipitation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1100 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

A ridge of higher pressure is actively building across the
southern plains with only a slight interruption on Tuesday from a
small upper level weather system. This will cause the panhandles
to see warming temperatures for both today and Tuesday. The small
weather system on Tuesday has a high chance of pushing a weak cold
front across the panhandles during the afternoon hours of Tuesday.
It will take some time for the slightly cooler air associated with
this front to arrive which will delay the cooldown to Wednesday.
Only a small amount of upper level moisture is moving across the
panhandles during this time leading to sunny or mostly sunny
skies.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1100 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

The ridge of high pressure and associated warm and dry conditions
has a very high chance of remaining in place through Friday. Then
come this weekend there is a high chance that a weather system
will eject out of the desert southwest into the southern plains.
This system will bring about a change in the weather for the
panhandles during the weekend. The most likely impact is a drop in
the temperatures that would persist into next week. All other
impacts will be heavily influenced by the trajectory that this
weather system takes as it passes across the southern plains. The
current most likely trajectory would take this system to the south
of the panhandles swinging across central Texas. This trajectory
would most likely keep moisture associated with this system to
the south and east of the panhandles. This means that the
panhandles would either stay dry or see minimal amounts of
precipitation. The second most likely trajectory would take this
system a bit more northward passing south of the panhandles before
moving into OK proper. Such a trajectory would be more favorable
to bring moisture to the panhandles leading to more widespread
precipitation and amount of precipitation. A smaller subset of
this solution has an even more favorable trajectory bringing in
the full moisture fetch to the panhandles. This would cause far
higher amounts of precipitation, but this is very much the
outlier and is currently not considered with the forecast. As it
currently stands the forecast reflects a low chance for light
precipitation for this weekend. This aligns with the drier
solutions with only a small amount of moisture being able to pass
across the panhandles. Just be aware that this will change as the
path of the weather system and associated moisture becomes more
established through this work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1100 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

VFR conditions at all terminals and across the panhandles for the
next 24 hours. Tonight a low level jet will set up across the
western panhandles creating some speed shear at all terminals. The
intensity of this speed shear is not high enough to fully qualify
as LLWS and thus is not included within the TAFs.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...98