121
FXUS63 KAPX 160416
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1116 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lake effect snow begins tonight, lasting into Monday. Primary
  concerns are quick drops in visibility and localized hazardous
  travel conditions, especially across the eastern U.P.

- Precip-free through the middle of the week with gradually warming
  temperatures.

- Rain returns late this week into this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 223 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

Pattern Synopsis:

Strong troughing and accompanying embedded jet max will punch over
the Great Lakes this evening into Sunday, providing strong forcing
aloft to quickly deepen a cyclone below 990mb as it treks across far
southern Ontario and over New England by Sunday morning. Upstream
ridging will build surface high pressure down across the heart of
the continent, placing northern Michigan squarely between the two
features on Sunday with persistent northwest flow.
Aforementioned troughing and surface cyclone will work further
east Sunday night as building high pressure begins to nose into
the region by Monday morning.

Forecast Details:

Ongoing light showers will exit to the east over the next few hours,
leaving a break in precip chances later this afternoon and evening.
Strong northwest winds will continue to overspread northern Michigan
as the cold front slides out of the area, bringing much cooler
temperatures and kick starting lake effect snow showers later
this evening and tonight. Chances begin across the eastern U.P.
first, and eventually across northern lower later tonight.

The primary focus will be the potential for quick drops in
visibility and hazardous travel conditions due to the combination of
falling snow and strong winds. A relatively dry background
environment, activity beginning at night, and strong winds in place
is expected to organize activity into a few dominant bands that
focus over localized parts of the Northwoods with little snowfall
between these areas. Highest totals of 3-6 inches are expected
across western Chippewa and eastern Mackinac counties with locally
higher amounts possible should dominant banding lock in for an
extended period of time later tonight and Sunday. This band is
expected to stretch into far northeast lower, dropping around 1 to 2
inches across areas there. Lesser amounts of 1-3 inches are expected
across northwest lower where another dominant band is expected to
set up through the day tomorrow. As stated above, amounts are
expected to be secondary as the potential for quick drops in
visibility with falling snow and winds may lead to hazardous travel
conditions -- especially on roadways exposed to strong winds. A
winter weather advisory has been issued for parts of the eastern
U.P., and a future advisory may need consideration for northwest
lower should confidence in hazardous travel impacts in this area
increase -- despite lesser snowfall amounts. Snow chances will begin
to taper off heading into Monday as dry air begins to work into the
area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 223 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

Expansive troughing will continue to pivot over the northeast CONUS
and Canadian Maritimes on Monday as the system becomes increasingly
vertically stacked with time. Meanwhile, ridging sliding over the
Great Plains will help build the axis of surface high pressure over
the Great Lakes heading into Tuesday. This will create an
increasingly hostile environment for any ongoing lake effect snow
showers Monday morning as the low-level airmass dries out and flow
weakens, and in turn will lead to activity diminishing through the
morning and afternoon. Primarily precip-free weather appears likely
through the middle of the week as said high pressure settles in.
Temperatures also look to gradually warm throughout the week with
highs in the mid to upper 40s for most by Thursday. Rain chances
look to return to northern Michigan by Friday as the next system
begins to work into the region.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1110 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

Low VFR CIGs for most tonight into Sunday, with occasional MVFR
conditions possible, mainly within any lake effect snow
showers. A few lake effect snow bands develop through the night
into Sunday and Sunday night as well. Impacts possible at KCIU
at times, briefly KAPN and KPLN possibly as well. Significant
drops in visibility within any more robust snow showers. Most
likely location for this would be KCIU. Stiff northwest winds
will continue as well, 10-15G25-30KTs on average, especially
Sunday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for MIZ086-095-
     096.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 PM EST Sunday for LHZ345>349.
     Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for LMZ323-341-342-344.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for LMZ345-346.
     Gale Warning until 10 PM EST Sunday for LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...DJC
AVIATION...JLD