609
FXUS63 KAPX 022326
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
726 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near record warmth through the weekend with fire danger concerns.
- Gales possible on Lake Michigan Sunday and Sunday night.
- Cooler next week with increasing rain chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 210 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

Upper ridge axis remains anchored over the Great Lakes with surface
high slowly drifting to our east, turning low level winds more
southerly.  A weak low level boundary will sink southward out of
Canada toward eastern upper later tonight.  Although the main
forcing with this feature will remain well north/west of our area,
enough low level convergence within an axis of higher PWAT`s to
possibly produce an isolated shower north of M-28 (although most
will remain dry).  Low temperatures in the 40s and 50s with minimal
fog potential overnight.

That aforementioned weak boundary over eastern upper will become
more diffuse on Friday with the main forcing remaining well to our
north.  Some weak mid level instability on forecast soundings, with
CAPES around 300 j/kg.  Combined with elongated low level
convergence along the rather diffuse boundary may be enough to
produce a few showers (thunderstorms?) over eastern upper and
possibly northeast lower. Most areas will remain dry and confidence
is low in precipitation chances. Temperatures soaring into the 80s
in many inland areas over northern lower, 70s near the coasts and
eastern upper.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 210 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

An isolated shower/storm possible Friday night as the rather
diffuse boundary sags further south and washes out across
northern lower. Otherwise, very warm and increasingly breezy
over the weekend as the surface high drifts eastward with a
deeper trough over the intermountain west. As low pressure
eventually deepens over the upper Midwest, the pressure gradient
will tighten across the Great Lakes. Winds will become gusty,
especially along and west of Interstate 75, with temperatures
well into the 80s in many areas. Fire danger rating for northern
lower via Great Lakes Fire and Fuels shows High to Very High on
Sunday due to the warm, breezy, and dry conditions.

Bigger changes begin to take shape Sunday night into Monday as low
pressure slides to the north of the Great Lakes, with a frontal
boundary sagging into the Great Lakes.  After this first frontal
passage, a stronger boundary will be poised to sweep into the area
midweek, bringing an even cooler airmass to the area.  Certainly
better precipitation chances next week (compared to this current
week of dryness) with a more active northern jet stream but still
plenty of question marks as to exactly how much rain may fall.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 720 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the issuance period. South
to southeast winds will turn south to southwest through the
night for Friday, with occasional gusts around 15 kts. Chance
for light showers at CIU will be possible Friday, especially
after 14Z.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...NSC