748
FXUS63 KAPX 060545
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1245 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow/snow showers remain through this weekend.

- Below zero temps Sunday night into Monday morning across the
  interior.

- A medium potential (~40-70%) exists for at least 4" of snow later
  Monday into Tuesday for locations adjacent to the Lake MI shoreline.

- Another system bears watching for more accumulating snow mid next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1213 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Any significant snows from last night will dwindle to mainly light
lake induced snow showers through the day as H850 temps drop into
the mid teens below zero. That being said, best potential for a
burst of snow today will be across northern portions of Chippewa
county, with a quick few inches not out of the question for a small
subset of the county assuming banding shifts far enough south. Some
progged fcst soundings flirt with with a patch or brief instance of
freezing drizzle as well, so cannot rule it out across the area.

Today, potent complex trough will be spinning to the north across
Ontario, center slowly meandering across the southern portion of
Hudson Bay. Meanwhile, a positively tilted short wave on the
backside of the trough will swing to the southeast tonight across
the Upper Midwest. There will be additional short waves/pieces of
energy displaced to the south within the general flow aloft. The
combination of the pieces of energy aloft, general sfc troughing,
and sufficiently cold low levels will produce snow showers/light
snow across the region beginning late tonight into early Sunday for
most. Generally speaking though, impactful weather through tonight
remains relatively low (outside of a rogue lake effect band in
Chipp) with instances of snow and minor accums. Daytime temps in the
20s and lows in the teens for most.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1213 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

Day 2-4 (Sunday - Tuesday):

Mid level impulse, seen at H500 & H700, and general sfc troughing
will aid in light snow development across the region through the day
on Sunday. An inch to three of accumulation will be possible, with a
relatively thick and saturated DGZ making for efficient, fluffy
accumulation. Some of the CAMs show convergent snow bands and the
potential for meso vortex formation near the LM, LH, LS
shorelines, but most keep these features predominantly offshore.
We`ll hedge towards that solution at this time but refinement
will be needed. Another place to keep an eye on will be near
Whitefish/ E UP, with a little more lake inducement/mesoscale
processes possible, but this will be spatially sensitive as
well. All this being said, this should be a light snow event for
most, if not all, but some subtle details make this event worth
monitoring.

The story heading into the overnight will be the cold advection with
high pressure settling in from the north. Widespread single digits
are expected across northern MI Sunday night into Monday with
portions of the interior seeing values below zero (first time this
season?).

Interesting setup heading into the early portions of this week.
Relatively vigorous short wave trough digs into N MN & WI later
Monday and Monday night. Sfc low pressure development expected
within the vicinity of this feature. Flow around the low level
circulations will lead to southwest flow across Lake MI, likely
leading to a decent SSW lake effect/enhanced event Monday night into
Tuesday. Snow showers expected across the rest of northern MI on
Tuesday as the trough aloft swings on through. This is seen pretty
well in the LREF probabilities, with medium probs (40 to 60%) for at
least 3" (10:1 ratio, it might be close to double that in
reality) across western Mack, Beaver Island, parts of the LM
coast. Model_Certainty tool verifies the ENS, with moderate
snows showing up within some of the deterministic guidance and
blends. Something to monitor and fine tune in the coming days
for sure. Next system will be right on its heels Tuesday night.

Days 5-7 (Wednesday - Friday):

Another system is expected to move west to east Tuesday night into
Wednesday with sfc low pressure system progged to track across the
Upper Midwest and then into MI. A couple to several inches of snow
would be possible with this system, albeit this will likely be a
quick mover. In the ENS, there`s a subtle shade towards more
QPF/snow across the central and southern portions of the state, but
being this far out these details will likely change. Colder behind
this system late next week with the potential for lake effect snow
showers to some degree.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1142 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

Light snow continues early overnight (though much less so APN
than elsewhere). IFR conditions common tonight at the other TAF
sites. Snow exits, and conditions improve to MVFR late
overnight, and in some spots VFR Saturday afternoon.

Somewhat breezy sw to w winds.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM EST early this morning for
     MIZ016-020-025-031.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     LHZ345>348.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST early this morning for
     LHZ349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LMZ323-
     341-342-344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LSZ322.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM early this morning to 4 PM EST
     this afternoon for LSZ321.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLD
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...JZ