355
FXUS63 KAPX 221935
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
235 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increasing confidence in a potential high travel impact lake
effect snow event for Thanksgiving, beginning Wednesday and
continuing into Friday. Primary concerns at this time are high
snowfall accumulations and strong wind gusts leading to significant
visibility reductions and blowing snow.

- Light rain/snow mix this afternoon into Sunday AM.

- Mild temperatures with highs in the 40s and low 50s for the first
half of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 235 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

Pattern Synopsis:

Subtle ridging currently overhead will quickly be shunted east as
shortwave troughing punches over the Great Lakes this evening and
tonight. Favorable forcing provided by this feature aloft will
continue to support a weak cyclone that will sweep across Ontario
tonight, eventually weakening as it works into Quebec on Sunday. The
attendant cold front, albeit weak, will also slide across northern
Michigan later this evening/tonight and exit the area to the
southeast Sunday morning.

Forecast Details:

Primary focus for the short term will be the precip along and behind
the aforementioned front set to work across parts of the Northwoods
later this afternoon and continue into Sunday -- especially the
eastern U.P. where better moisture is in place. Chances will begin
north of the bridge mid to late afternoon as the front encroaches on
the area and forcing aloft scoots in. Initial precip is expected to
fall as rain, but light snow may mix in later in the afternoon and
evening as temperatures gradually cool. Very light rain is
anticipated south of the bridge with decreasing chances with
southward extent as available moisture becomes less and less
favorable, forcing falling precip to struggle making it to the
surface.

A brief break in precip chances is expected this evening before lake
effect precip kicks in overnight. Temperatures largely in the mid
30s complicate the precip-type forecast, but current confidence is
that the dominant precip type overnight will be rain with snow
mixing in at times across interior eastern upper and northwest lower
-- especially in the higher terrain. Any snow falling is likely to
struggle to accumulate in said marginal temps with little in the way
of impacts for Sunday morning travel. Lake effect rain showers look
to continue into Sunday morning across northwest lower and persist
into Sunday afternoon across the eastern U.P. where favorable low-
level moisture sticks around longer as the system works further away
from the Great Lakes with time.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 235 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

Thanksgiving Holiday System (Wednesday - Saturday):

Of foremost interest will be the system set to impact the Great
Lakes through the peak of Thanksgiving holiday travel. Confidence
continues to increase in a potential high impact lake effect snow
event across parts of northern Michigan for the holiday, beginning
in the Wednesday afternoon/evening timeframe and continuing through
the remainder of the week.

The bulk of latest guidance -- both multiple ensemble suites and
deterministic model runs -- continue to trend the expected sytem
further south, tracking squarely over the northern half of the state
Tuesday and Wednesday, quickly deepening underneath strong ascent
aloft provided by an impressive trough punching across the region.
As this system pivots to the northeast, strong northwest flow will
overspread the state. To emphasize -- should current trends
continue, a significant lake effect snow event would be expected
across much of northern Michigan. Persistent flow for 18-24+ hours
combined with deep saturation evident in forecast soundings will
bring the potential for high snowfall amounts. A quickly deepening
cyclone over the region will bring the potential for strong
sustained winds and gusts in excess of 40 mph -- making rapid drops
in visibility and drifting snow major concerns. Considering the
potential impacts and volume of expected travelers during this
timeframe, those with holiday travel plans should carefully review
them and stay tuned to the latest forecast for updates as tweaks in
expected timing and impacts are made leading up to Thanksgiving.

Early this Week (Monday - Tuesday):

Prior to the expected snow for the holiday, the first half of the
week will be mild across northern Michigan. High pressure will build
across the eastern U.S., wrapping southerly low-level flow around
the backside of the feature ahead of the developing cyclone and
advecting warm air into the region. Highs in the upper 40s and low
50s are in store for Monday and Tuesday with temperatures likely
remaining above freezing Monday night. Rain returns to northern
Michigan early Tuesday as the system begins to work into the Great
Lakes.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1223 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

VFR conditions will trend MVFR, especially northerly TAF sites
through the period with rain/ snow chances lingering into late
Sunday morning. Southerly winds will veer west-northwest tonight
and accelerate with occasional gusts 25-30 knots possible late
tonight through Sunday evening.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Sunday for LHZ345.
     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday for LHZ346-
     349.
     Gale Warning from 7 AM to 4 PM EST Sunday for LHZ347-348.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Sunday for LMZ323-341-342.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Sunday for LMZ344>346.
     Gale Warning from 4 AM to 1 PM EST Sunday for LSZ321.
     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 5 PM EST Sunday for LSZ322.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...DJC
AVIATION...NSC