721
FXUS63 KAPX 231130
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
630 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy today; milder to start the week, with rain returning Monday
night/Tuesday.

- Rain transitions to snow Wednesday; gusty winds, colder
temperatures, and accumulating lake effect snow are expected from
late Wednesday into early Friday.

- Active weather remains on the horizon through next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 304 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Ridging over the NW US, with a 100kt upper jet crossing southern
Canada and dragging Pacific moisture inland. Upper low still hanging
over the SW US, with its own punch of Pacific moisture into the
Desert SW/TX. Southeastern US ridge continues to be suppressed,
keeping the bulk of the moisture closer to the Gulf Coast. Here in
the Great Lakes...negatively tilted shortwave axis stretches from
central Canada into the Michigan as of 0z/23...with attendant
surface system crossing the region. Best saturation and dynamics
remain along/north of Lake Superior...though additional low-level
moisture is filtering in behind this and attendant cold front on
strengthening NW flow. Otherwise...southeastern US ridge continues
to be suppressed...keeping the better moisture along the Gulf Coast
into the Carolinas/Georgia.

We`ll be on the backside of the shortwave trough and surface system
this morning...though weak cold advection will keep some NW flow
lake effect in play for a time, esp for the EUP. Current thinking is
it remains warm enough in the low-levels that whatever falls should
be mainly rain...though a few flakes can`t be ruled out. Warm
advection aloft begins later this afternoon/tonight as ridging
builds eastward into the region. Increasing return flow over the
Upper MS Valley tonight could lead to some mid/high clouds
overspreading parts of the area along a subtle boundary, loosely
connected to a subtle northern stream disturbance passing well north
of us Sunday night into Monday...though with antecedent dry air in
place...not expecting much, if anything, out of this feature
tonight.

Primary Forecast Concerns through tonight:

Expecting a breezy day today between exiting low pressure and
incoming high pressure...with sustained winds 5-15kts from the
NW/WNW, esp for the first half of the day. 30+kt low-level jet will
only add to this, particularly for the first half of the day into
early afternoon, while cold advection helps enhance downward
momentum transfer. Expect gales, especially for northern Lake Huron
(and for our nearshores, near Presque Isle Light) as well as
Whitefish Bay...and think gusts could be a little closer to 30kts
over land as well. Not out of the question some 40-ish kt gusts
could occur (esp over the waters), but greatest confidence in
widespread 25-35kts attm, esp across NE Lower and the EUP.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 304 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

Days 2-3 (Monday-Tuesday)...

Breezy return flow in place across the Midwest Monday...ahead of a
couple areas of troughing out west...an open wave over the central
Plains, and shortwave troughing trailing just behind it. Expect
generally mild conditions across the Great Lakes, with some rain
chances on the increase as that subtle boundary/surface troughing
from Sunday night looks to drape into the Upper Great Lakes
Monday/Monday night...ahead of that central Plains wave scooting on
into the Upper OH Valley by Tuesday morning. From here...upstream
features begin to take precedence...particularly, northern stream
shortwave trough that will dig into the Northern Plains, taking on a
negative tilt through the day Tuesday as it moves eastward into the
Upper Midwest Tuesday night. Setup favors development of a strong,
dynamic surface low in the Upper Great Lakes Tuesday night into
Wednesday...with strong, cold, northerly flow overtaking the Upper
Midwest in its wake...though we here in northern Michigan should
still be on the warm side of the system till Wednesday morning.

Days 4-7 (Wednesday-Saturday)...

Dynamic upper system crosses the Upper Great Lakes, quickly winding
up and occluding a surface low, most likely near/over Lake Superior
Wednesday. Expect strong cold advection in the wake of this...with
WNW/NW flow ramping up Wednesday night (likely sustained winds 15-
25kts; gusts 30-40kts)...and we should transition from rain early to
lake effect snow by the end of the day as temps fall through the day
both at the surface and aloft...and moisture aloft wraps back in
behind the low Wednesday night. This idea persists into Thanksgiving
Day itself...with flow slowly starting to wane Thanksgiving
night/Friday morning...though accumulating lake effect snow along
with breezy and cold conditions will likely remain the norm for many
across the area. Beyond this...think lake effect snow will continue
for some, though areas of focus should change as ridging tries to
build back in toward the weekend...ahead of another strong system
looking to develop over the Southern Plains.

Expecting travel impacts both for road travel and airline travel,
particularly late Wednesday through Thanksgiving Day and perhaps
into Friday, given potential for blowing/drifting snow and lowered
visibilities (both inside the most intense bands as well as outside
of bands). Additionally...since we will have a prolonged period of
rain Tuesday night into Wednesday morning...followed by falling
temperatures, strong winds to continually remove heat from surfaces,
and snowfall rates that should allow for accumulations by late
afternoon/evening...think there could be impacts to how well roads
can be treated/pre-treated during the early stages of this event.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 627 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

MVFR cigs for the northern TAF sites, with lingering moisture
and lake effect instability. MVFR much of today PLN/CIU, and at
times APN. VFR at TVC/MBL. Clouds will tend to decrease heading
into tonight.

Gusty w to nw winds today.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for LHZ345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LHZ346-
     349.
     Gale Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LHZ347-348.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for LMZ323-
     341-342.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     LMZ344>346.
     Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for LSZ321.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for LSZ322.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FEF
LONG TERM...FEF
AVIATION...JZ