930
FXUS63 KAPX 100937
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
437 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Accumulating lake effect snow expected across northwest lower
  and eastern upper today and tonight. Amounts of 2-4" expected
  for many near and south of Grand Traverse Bay with localized
  4-6"+ possible near Manistee.

- Additional light rain/snow mix Tuesday before turning to
  mostly rain Wednesday. Any snow accumulations expected to stay
  under 1" at this time.

- Mainly dry and warmer late this week into this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 433 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

Pattern Synopsis:

Expansive amplified longwave troughing will continue to churn over
the eastern half of the country today as associated broad low
pressure works up the eastern seaboard. Meanwhile, ridging will fold
over central Canada and the northern Great Plains today, building
surface high pressure across the central U.S. and sandwiching the
Great Lakes between these features through today before
aforementioned high pressure noses in later tonight.

Forecast Details:

While light lake effect showers persist across parts of northern
Michigan, the primary concern will be the placement of the ongoing
dominant single lake effect band spanning the long axis of Lake
Michigan through the day today.

As land breeze influence lessens during daylight hours and
background synoptic flow increases, expectation is that this
dominant band will shift eastward with time this morning and
afternoon. This will bring the band and associated heavy lake effect
very close to our western Lake Michigan shoreline -- specifically
Manistee county. Two things to note on set-ups like this: 1.) even
slight land breeze influence/offshore flow can work to keep the band
just offshore with straight north background flow, which may be the
case through much of the day, and 2.) the slightest fluctuation of
west component of wind can help focus heaviest banding just onshore,
leading to highly localized significant snowfall for hours over just
a few mile stretch of land.

Current confidence is that heaviest lake effect snow will focus just
offshore for most of the day. Relatively lighter snow is still
expected with ongoing bands through the morning/afternoon. As the
afternoon progresses and the dominant band moves east, it appears
there will be a race against time of sorts for higher snowfall
totals to materialize. Changing wind direction will likely lead to
waffling of banding, working to spread snowfall totals out across
the county vs. focusing them over one spot along the shoreline for
several hours. Along with this, the initially very favorable
environment with deep saturation extending to near 10kft will become
increasingly hostile with time as dry air moves in, causing banding
to run out of steam later this evening and tonight. That said,
totals of 2-4" are currently forecast for much of Manistee county
with the potential for 4-6"+ in far southwest portions of the county
in association with the aforementioned strong band. Should the band
focus over the county earlier in the day, totals in excess of 6"
could be expected.

The other main area of focus will be near and south of Grand
Traverse Bay where more organized bands are expected to develop with
north flow later today into tonight. As mentioned above, changing
wind direction will shift focus of any ongoing bands, likely helping
to spread snowfall totals out some. A general 2-4" is expected for
most areas, but localized amounts of 4" or more cannot be ruled out
should bands focus over specific areas for several hours later
today. Lesser amounts are anticipated elsewhere as lake effect
showers diminish with time tonight into Tuesday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 433 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

Days 2-3 (Tuesday-Wednesday):

Amplified longwave troughing will rotate over the northeast CONUS as
ridging temporarily slides over the Great Lakes on Tuesday. The
combination of dry low-level air working in and shifting winds from
aforementioned ridging will bring a brief break in precip chances
Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon. By then, a subtle
shortwave/jet max embedded in large scale northwest flow will punch
over the region, providing ample forcing aloft to support our next
round of rain snow chances beginning in the Tuesday
afternoon/evening timeframe. Lack of more substantial forcing is
expected to keep precip light -- with most areas seeing a tenth of
liquid precip or less. Marginal temps will likely lead to a
rain/snow mix with any activity Tuesday and Tuesday night. Rain is
expected near the lakeshores of northwest lower given southwest
winds advecting warmer air/above freezing temps inland and better
chances for snow to mix in across interior areas -- especially the
higher terrain of northern lower. West-northwest winds look to
settle in on Wednesday with temps reaching into upper 30s to mid 40s
-- setting the stage for continued lake effect rain showers through
the middle of the week.

Days 4-7 (Thursday-Sunday):

Low-amplitude troughing will progress over the region Thursday,
perhaps providing enough support to keep lake effect showers going
into Thursday morning. That said, Thursday-Saturday appear to stay
mainly dry at this time as ridging and associated surface high
pressure slide over the Great Lakes. Temperatures look to gradually
warm through the long term with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s by
Sunday as our next chances for precip move back in.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 122 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

Lingering MVFR ceilings will trend VFR as winds slacken to AOB
10kts. Another round of lake effect snow is possible today,
especially across Lake MI terminals. -SHSN looks to begin as
early as 12Z over KMBL, with SN reaching KTVC by 18Z as winds
turn NW and strengthen. Winds gain more of a W component and
weaken by the end of the period, helping to possibly shut off
lake effect snow. Conditions across aforementioned lake effect
prone areas will trend MVFR to possibly IFR conditions in the
heaviest bands with other terminals trending more low end VFR.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ031.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for LHZ347.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for LHZ348-349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for LMZ344>346.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...DJC
AVIATION...NSC