829
FXUS63 KAPX 142251
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
651 PM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm and dry conditions this week
- Increased fire weather concerns early in the week

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 215 PM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025

Pattern synopsis/forecast:

Omega block in the upper levels across the lower CONUS with ridge
axis extending north through the Great Lakes with upper level
troughing along the east coast and over the intermountain west.
Hudson Bay high will become an increasingly larger player in our
weather heading into the new week, helping to keep deeper moisture
and precipitation chances to our west.  Lingering moisture seen in
the axis of higher PWAT`s over eastern upper and northeast lower.
Because of this, we may see a few more clouds in these areas, as
well as overnight patchy fog chances.  Otherwise, few sensible
weather concerns.

Primary Forecast Concerns through Monday:

Minimal. An isolated shower possible through early evening over
eastern upper/northeast lower along inland penetrating lake
breeze boundaries. But given the overall lack of moisture and
warmer mid levels, most (all?) areas will be dry. The "biggest"
weather issue tonight will be areas of fog over mainly northeast
lower after midnight. Ridge axis overhead on Monday. After any
early morning fog dissipates, some diurnal cu likely over
northeast lower but plenty of sunshine in most areas. As the
Hudson Bay high exerts increasing influence on our weather,
east/southeast flow will prevail, which could help to push
temperatures into the middle 80s in downslope areas west of
I-75. Continued fire weather concerns as we continue to dry out
our fuel moistures and afternoon RH`s dip into the 30s,
particularly in the Cadillac/Wellston area.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 215 PM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025

Quiet.  Near record warmth in some locations.

Upper ridge axis remains largely overhead through Tuesday with
continued drying seen in decreasing PWAT`s.  This will continue our
fire weather concerns, as afternoon RH`s drop into the 30s.
Widespread highs in the 80s south of the Bridge, slightly cooler
near the coasts.  Warmest readings likely west of I-75 in favored
downslope areas with continued east/southeast boundary layer flow.

The unseasonably warm and generally dry weather will continue
through much of the remainder of the week as we remain largely
under the influence of the slowly departing ridge. With the
potential for a cutoff upper feature in the middle of the
country, confidence diminishes in the later periods as the
models struggle to resolve the blocky pattern. There are hints
that some moisture makes an attempt to push toward the Great
Lakes later in the week, although it may be pushed away again by
another large area of high pressure sliding south out of
Canada. Overall, this looks to be a great stretch of late summer
weather in northern Michigan.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 647 PM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025

Again, probably looking at periods of MVFR to IFR producing
fog/mist developing early Monday morning at locations other
than KTVC. Any fog/mist will mix out quickly at sunrise,
leaving behind VFR conditions under mostly sunny skies Monday.
Light winds with afternoon lake breeze development likely.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...MSB