487
FXUS63 KAPX 141108 CCA
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
708 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Cool(ish) temperatures occupy Northern Michigan today and
 Wednesday.

-Scattered shower potential tonight. Otherwise, mainly quiet and
 dry weather for much of the work week.

-Rounds of showers return this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 212 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Pattern Synopsis...Current cold frontal boundary just east of
Michigan continues to progress eastward today, allowing for a
cool/dry air mass to settle into the region. Midlevel shortwave
riding pattern currently building across the center of the CONUS
will support surface high pressure and overall non-impactful
weather. At the same time, low pressure lee of the Rockies
returns some light shower chances later tonight as a warm front
spans across the plains into the Mississippi Valley.

Forecast Details...

Today...Overall quiet and cool weather will persist as midlevel
subsidence continues to build across the region. Biggest
feature that will be noticeably different than yesterday is the
cooler air airmass from the NW returning temperatures to near climo
averages for mid October. Highs are expected to remain in the
mid/upper 50s for most locations across the CWA. Winds remain
from the northwest with breezy conditions building in the
afternoon as pressure gradient force winds pinch the midwest
from high pressure NW of Lake Superior.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 212 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Wednesday and Thursday... Midlevel heights rise this Wednesday and
Thursday with the previously mentioned ridge axis centering itself
over the Great Lakes region. Northerly midlevel flow will keep
northwest flow and subsequent temperatures remaining around
climatological average for mid October. Highs remain around 60s
while clear skies and efficient radiational cooling drops overnight
lows near or below freezing Wednesday night.

Friday and Saturday...Guidance depicts 500mb troughing with closed
low pressure currently over central California progressing (while
weakening) northeast this week and landing over the Manitoba/Ontario
region this weekend. Warm advection into the midwest will return
light stratiform rain as early as Friday morning. Medium
probabilities (roughly 40% to 60%) of QPF totals near or less than a
quarter inch associated with the systems warm front. Another round
of showers appear to track across the Great Lakes Region Saturday as
the systems cold front progresses eastward. Saturdays environment
seems more ideal as enough lift and moisture advected from the
Gulf keeps highest probs of QPF between an additional quarter to
half inch on top of Friday.

Sunday and Monday Outlook...Guidance depicts another system
tracking through the Ohio Valley early next week as the
aformentioned tough axis digs across the eastern half of the
CONUS. Latest models depict additional stratiform rainfall over
the CWA from the systems deformation zone this Sunday. Too early
to advertise amounts or impacts, but highest probs of rainfall
totals remain at a quarter inch or less.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 657 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Largely VFR through the period. Some lingering BR at PLN a
little after sunrise, but otherwise anticipating some increasing
high cloud, with perhaps some fair weather CU at 3,000ft
through the day today. NNW winds will be breezy at times,
perhaps pushing 20kts at times this morning into the afternoon
before tapering. Another disturbance builds tonight, bringing
SHRA chances to all sites TVC and south, with perhaps come VCSH
at PLN and APN. All in all, largely unimpactful as CIGs look to
hover around 5,000 ft and rain will be light enough to likely
maintain VFR... this batch of clouds and showers departs just
before the end of the forecast period.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SJC
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...HAD