986
FXUS63 KAPX 100622
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
122 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Accumulating snow gradually comes to an end this evening.

- Another round of lake effect snow tomorrow, highest accumulations
  along the Lake Michigan shoreline across Benzie and Manistee
  counties.

- Active mid week with more light rain/snow and breezy conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 424 PM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Upper trough dives south tonight and then shifts east through the
Ohio Valley on Monday. Consequently, northerly low level winds will
waffle to the NNW, resulting in more lake effect snow chances. Best
chances for accumulating snows will be from GTB and southwest,
specifically across the shorelines of Benzie and Manistee counties.
Otherwise, temperatures will be quite cold tonight, teens and 20s
for most, locally colder in spots.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Accumulating snow:

Another tough forecast that hinges on the subtle wind
direction/shifts and how long lake effect bands can linger over a
specific location. Highest confidence in this is around Manistee,
literally right on the coast at Manistee, with the potential for
several inches. Worst case would be warning level snows, but
uncertainty remains with some of the latest/midday runs of guidance
and the subtleties within the actual mesoscale features/wobbles
within these lake effect bands. One thing is for certain, the lake
snow environment is quite exceptional in this region with plenty of
over lake instability (plenty of CAPEs over the lake and difference
between the anomalously warm lakes and cold low level temps). HREF
and RRFS/REFS guidance indicates the potential for at least advisory
levels snows with high snowfall rates leading to poor visibility and
hazardous travel. As the winds shift a little more northwest due to
the changes in the trough orientation, some of the lake bands will
shift eastward bringing some inland, and thus Benzie and Grand
Traverse county could get in on the accumulating snows. Elsewhere,
farther north, a couple of inches of snow will be possible into
Monday night, generally west of 75. A scenario exists where most of
the significant accums remain just off the coast of Manistee, but
given the potential for significant accumulations, went ahead with
an advisory for Manistee county. Expansions could certainly be
possible, and even a non zero chance for an upgrade.

Cold Temperatures:

Temperatures will tank to the lowest of the season tonight, with
teens and 20s likely across much of the area. If we can clear out a
little, there is certainly the potential for temperatures even lower
than that in the typically colder spots. This rapid cooling may pose
an isolated risk for icy roadways in spots that have standing water
from snowmelt.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 424 PM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

Day 2-3 (Tuesday - Wednesday):

Trough digs across the Upper Midwest mid week spreading
precipitation across northern Michigan, especially later Tuesday
into Wednesday. Temperatures will be above freezing during the
daytime hours, and thus a rain/snow mix is likely. Not expecting any
significant accumulations with this event, rain nor snow, however
breezy to windy conditions are anticipated.

Days 4-7 (Thursday - Sunday):

Lingering lake induced rain/snow showers likely on Thursday as broad
northwest flow remains overhead. Ridging moves in later in the week
with dry conditions anticipated along with increasing temperatures
(40s+ for highs). Deterministic guidance suggests the potential for
active weather thereafter as plenty of energy digs into the central
portions of the country and/or Canada.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 122 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

Lingering MVFR ceilings will trend VFR as winds slacken to AOB
10kts. Another round of lake effect snow is possible today,
especially across Lake MI terminals. -SHSN looks to begin as
early as 12Z over KMBL, with SN reaching KTVC by 18Z as winds
turn NW and strengthen. Winds gain more of a W component and
weaken by the end of the period, helping to possibly shut off
lake effect snow. Conditions across aforementioned lake effect
prone areas will trend MVFR to possibly IFR conditions in the
heaviest bands with other terminals trending more low end VFR.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 1 AM EST
     Tuesday for MIZ031.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for LHZ347.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for LHZ348-349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for LMZ344>346.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLD
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...NSC