269
FXUS63 KAPX 130738
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
238 AM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lake effect/ enhanced showers gradually diminish across
  eastern Upper today; breezy.

- Drying/ warming trend late this week.

- Renewed precipitation chances this weekend into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 238 AM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

Southwest to northeast drying trend will become increasingly
noticeable through the day as the influence of mid-level ridging
and surface high pressure begins to spread into the Great
Lakes. Any lingering early morning showers will be confined
mainly to the tip of the Mitt and far northern areas, but those
should steadily fade through midday and afternoon hours as drier
air filters in from the southwest. By midday and into the
afternoon, skies will turn mostly sunny across much of northern
Lower, especially south of M-32 where sunshine should be
plentiful. Temperatures will respond nicely to the added
sunshine, climbing into the 40s for most with a few spots near
and south of M-55 possibly reaching the 50s. A breezy west wind
at times will make it feel a bit cooler, with wind chills mainly
in the 30s and low 40s through the day.

By tonight, rising mid and upper-level heights signal a
strengthening ridge building eastward from the Plains, bringing
continued quiet weather. Winds will gradually ease as the
pressure gradient relaxes, and with the combination of recent
precipitation, clearing skies, and light winds, areas of patchy
fog may develop. Any fog that does form is expected to burn off
as the sun rises Friday. Overnight lows tonight look to dip back
into the upper 20s to low 30s under mostly clear to partly
cloudy skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 238 AM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

The ridge axis continues to make steady eastward progress
through Friday, becoming centered overhead Friday night. This
setup, paired with surface high pressure stretching across much
of the eastern CONUS, will provide a pleasant and quiet end to
the work week. Any early morning fog should lift/ burn off
quickly, giving way to partly to mostly sunny skies through the
day. Temperatures remain mild, with highs generally in the mid
40s to low 50s and light winds making for a calm day overall.
Clouds will gradually thicken Friday night ahead of our next
weather system approaching from the northwest.

Attention then turns to Saturday as a deepening low drops out
of Canada into the western Great Lakes. Strengthening southerly
winds ahead of this feature will usher in warmer air and
increasing moisture, leading to rain chances arriving by late
morning or early afternoon. Despite increasing clouds and
showers, Saturday should be quite mild with highs ranging from
near 50 north to near 60 far south. As the low and its
associated cold front pass through Saturday night, a shift to
gusty northwest winds will introduce a cooler airmass into the
region. By Sunday, temperatures will take a step back as colder
air filters in, setting the stage for lake effect/ enhanced
showers. How cold temperatures get is still in question, but
it`s certainly supportive of a rain to snow transition at times,
especially across higher terrain and traditional snowbelt
locations.

Heading into early next week, forecast confidence drops a bit
as another mid-level wave approaches from the southwest later
Monday/ Tuesday keeping precipitation chances in the
forecast...Either as a direct result of this wave itself, or
continued lake effect chances if this wave is suppressed south.
Temperatures look to trend near to slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1115 PM EST Wed Nov 12 2025

Primarily VFR conditions still expected through the period,
with brief periods of MVFR to even IFR cigs at KCIU this morning.
Skies will gradually clear from southwest to northeast today,
although a VFR producing strato-cu deck looks to hold on much of
the day at KCIU. Gusty west to northwest winds will continue
today...subsiding this evening.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
     LHZ345>349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LMZ323-
     341-342-344.
     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for LMZ345-
     346.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for LSZ321.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NSC
LONG TERM...NSC
AVIATION...MSB