805
FXUS63 KAPX 161913
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
213 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lake effect snow continues tonight, ending Monday
- Dry and milder weather developing through midweek
- Rain chances return for the end of the week

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

Upper lower over New England continues to slide slowly northeast
tonight, with deep layer northwest flow continuing across the Great
Lakes. This will keep the lake effect machine going, although with
diminishing trends late as drier air to the west begins to make
advances into the area.  This diminishing trend in precipitation
continues on Monday with rising heights, decreasing instability and
continued drying.

Lake effect continues tonight favoring northwest flow areas, with
our current cellular structure become more banded. Forecast
soundings still show robust inversion heights around 8k with plenty
of overlake instability and forcing present through the DGZ.  There
are some indications that we will tighten up the H10-H8 low level
convergence axis from parts of eastern upper into far northeast
lower tonight, with that axis shifting inland/westward with time.
This may result in some enhancement to snowfall rates/overall
intensity in these areas for a time tonight. Additional snow showers
will be likely over northwest lower. Drier air slowly makes inroads
after midnight, with a general decrease in coverage/intensity of
lake effect.

Headlines:  Advisory continues for much of eastern upper as they are
the most likely to see a few additional inches of accumulation given
deeper moisture. With the tightening low level convergence signals
along the Lake Huron coast for a time tonight, I am reluctant to
take down the advisory for Presque Isle and Alpena Counties over
northeast lower and will leave that up.  Additional snow showers
likely over northwest lower, with a few areas possibly seeing 1-3"
in the most persistent bands.  With temperatures dipping below
freezing tonight, wet roads could become icy in spots - another
impact to monitor.

Some lake effect likely continuing into Monday morning, which could
impact the morning commute in some locations.  The activity should
wind down throughout the day with continued drying and rising
heights/upper ridging pushing in from the west. Highs in the
30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

A relatively quiet stretch of weather through much of the week as
high pressure builds into the Great Lakes.  Temperatures will slowly
moderate, with highs reaching back into the 40s by midweek.
Increasing uncertainty for the end of the week as low pressure moves
out of the central Plains and toward the Great Lakes, with
additional northern stream shortwave energy sliding by to our north.
This will bring rain chances back to the area for the end of
the week into the first part of weekend. Temperatures will
be relatively mild with rain favored snow through much of this
period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1253 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

KCIU, KPLN, and KAPN will remain mostly VFR this afternoon with
TEMPO bands of -SHSN, MVFR cigs, and MVFR VISBY`s through this
evening. -SHSN then slowly taper off overnight, continuing VFR
flight categories through the reminder of the forecast period
along with breezy northwest gusting into the 20s.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for MIZ018-024-
     086-095-096.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for LHZ345>349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.
     Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...SJC