730
FXUS63 KAPX 290831
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
331 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Light lake effect activity along the coasts this morning into
 the early afternoon.

-Larger system brings widespread snow accumulations across all
 of northern lower and eastern upper Michigan later today
 through Sunday morning. Quick bout of lake effect snow on the
 backside of the system Sunday night through Monday.

-Additional snow chances return around midweek, with more lake
 effect snow chances beyond that.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 331 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

Pattern Synopsis:

Bit of a transition period underway across the Great Lakes... with
potent closed low delivering an impressive (and to a lesser extent,
still ongoing) lake effect snow outburst is moving into Atlantic
Canada, while a brief period of ridging builds into the region,
courtesy of an oblong area of surface high pressure stretching from
roughly Manitoba to the Tennessee Valley. Next item of business is
quick to build into the region... as a pretty stellar northern
stream shortwave digs from the northern Rockies into the Corn Belt
region by daybreak. Lee cyclogenesis well underway at the surface,
with surface low pressure currently festering over western Kansas
set to draw in moisture from the Gulf, overlapping with an already
chilly airmass in place over much of the northern CONUS. Result will
be the eventual return of accumulating snowfall to the region as
this surface low lifts from the mid Mississippi Valley into Michigan
tonight into Sunday.

Forecast Details:

Weakening flow due to surface high pressure moving into the region
is beginning to spell the demise from the ongoing lake effect snow
regime... anticipating this activity to confine itself closer to the
coast through the morning as land-lake breeze interactions continue
to support some convection. Some additional light snow accumulations
will be possible into early this afternoon along the immediate
shorelines. As the aforementioned system builds into the region and
antecedent south to southeasterly flow builds into the region, this
activity will be forced north and west, with potential for snow
showers to manifest across parts of Mackinac County, southeast
Chippewa county, and the Whitefish Bay region. Accumulations again
look to be rather light.

Now to the bigger story during the forecast period...

Strong isentropic lift ahead of the system will lead to most of the
region being basically overcast by the afternoon despite the best
efforts of surface high pressure. A combination of drier air through
the profile from the surface high and a slowing system as it
approaches Michigan (due to the heavy occlusion of the surface low
with time) will lead to snowfall onset largely waiting until the
late afternoon hours, but still anticipating the snowfall to
commence from SW to NE late this afternoon into early tonight.
Surface low pressure track will be from SW lower into the Saginaw
Bay region and northern Lake Huron by Sunday afternoon. As such,
system will be considerably vertically stacked with a slackening
thermal gradient due to the occlusion. Those impressive snowfall
amounts that look to materialize across Wisconsin, Illinois, and SW
lower Michigan may struggle to do much more than leak into Saginaw
Bay as the overall lift with the system weakens with time.
Nonetheless... ample saturation and sufficient lift through the DGZ
will lead to a widespread accumulating snowfall (and wetter
snow too... ratios generally 9 - 12 to 1) across the region
tonight before tapering into Sunday morning.

As far as where the heaviest snowfall is anticipated, there are three
distinct areas to highlight. All snowfall ranges will be from an 18z
/ 2pm Saturday to 18z / 2pm Sunday range (24 hours).

The general expectation is that the swath of heaviest snow solely
form the system will generally favor the Saginaw Bay region, given
proximity to the system. Winter Storm Warnings have been hoisted for
Gladwin, Arenac, Ogemaw, Iosco, and Alcona counties for potential to
see up to 8 inches of snow by the time snowfall tapers Sunday. There
are a couple mesoscale / lake elements to consider as well.

Strong SSE flow off the lakes will contribute to some enhancement
across far northeast lower... specifically the region between Alpena
and Rogers City (think US 23 along the lakeshore)... where a
separate Winter Storm Warning has been hoisted for potential to see
localized snowfall in excess of 8 inches. There is a bit of
uncertainty with guidance among this feature, but more and more
guidance is buying into the idea of this zone of lake
enhancement actually moving ashore (some of the most aggressive
models try to slam 15" of snow into this area, so there`s your
ceiling).

A third and final area to highlight is the eastern Mackinac /
southeast Chippewa region, where that SSE flow will lead to another
area of lake enhancement. Winter Storm Warnings have been hoisted
for these two zones as well for potential to see localized
accumulations in excess of 8", and much like northeast lower, with
the most aggressive guidances putting a ceiling of 15" by Sunday
afternoon.

All other areas will remain in Winter Weather Advisories for this
forecast cycle due to widespread hazardous travel from reduced
visibilities and snow covered / slippery roads. West of I-75 in
eastern upper generally is set to see 3 to 5 inches of snow from
this event. The rest of northern lower probably lands in the 4 to 6
inch range (perhaps 3 to 5 inches across the Grand Traverse Bay
region, locally up to 7 inches across the higher terrain of interior
northern lower).

In the wake of this system, gusty winds and lake effect snow builds
into the region later Sunday afternoon and into Sunday night. For
more details on this, see the discussion below (long term).

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 331 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

One thing that I will start this discussion off with is that this
particular round of lake effect snow (Sunday - Monday) doesn`t quite
have the pazazz the Thanksgiving event showcased. Nonetheless,
anticipating potential for additional accumulations on top of that
system snow to materialize. Strong NNW flow cold advection leads to
a window of snow showers reaching well inland for a brief period
(perhaps on the order of 6 to 10 hours)... but a quick return of
surface high pressure to the south will shift an initial NNW flow
regime with strong winds to a lighter SW flow regime. As such,
anticipating the focus of snows to shift around a bit through
Monday, and thus limiting any single area from getting clobbered
like the most recent event. Nonetheless, continuation of snow
induced travel hazards anticipated across northwest lower and
portions of eastern upper later Sunday into Sunday night... shifting
to the Straits for Monday and into Tuesday. The more concerning of
these two lake effect regimes will definitely be later Sunday into
Sunday night as better moisture and strong winds will lead to
intermittent periods of heavy snowfall rates overlapping gusty winds
bringing blowing / drifting snow concerns.

The active pattern marches on as another northern stream system
races through around midweek and delivers another brief shot of
somewhat more widespread snow to the region. This appears to be a
bit of a quick mover and looks moisture starved, so not anticipating
heavy snowfall accumulations at this juncture. Additional lake
effect snow chances continue in the wake of the midweek system
as we remain near to below normal in the temperature department.
So with all that, surely looks like an excellent start to the
winter recreation season is underway as this pattern looks to
continue its dominance into mid December, per longer term
guidance.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1047 PM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

Lake effect clouds and some snow showers continue. Brief
MVFR/IFR conditions possible at CIU overnight, and maybe just
maybe PLN. Otherwise VFR to perhaps MVFR cigs overnight and
Saturday morning. In the afternoon/evening, widespread snow
returns to the area from the sw, with IFR cigs/vsbys.

Light nw winds this evening, becoming light se-erly Saturday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
     Sunday for MIZ016-017-022-023-029-086-087-095-097>099.
     Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Sunday
     for MIZ018-024-088-096.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST
     Sunday for MIZ020-021-025>028-031>034.
     Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST
     Sunday for MIZ030-035-036-041-042.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for
     LHZ345>349.
     Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for
     LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST
     Monday for LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAD
LONG TERM...HAD
AVIATION...JZ