815
FXUS63 KAPX 302340
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
740 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler Wednesday, Drier but Warmer Thursday...

- Increasingly warm for late week, with potential for some fire
weather concerns at times...

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 332 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Amplified pattern across the CONUS today...with troughing over the
West Coast, a shortwave trough stretching from the Dakotas to TX and
ridging ahead of that across the MS Valley into the Upper
Midwest/Great Lakes...with excellent return flow off the Gulf. A
subtle bit of PV swirling over KY/TN...with ridging between this and
T.C. "Imelda" off the coast. More noteworthy for our region is PV
maxima sliding through eastern Canada...with high pressure pivoting
across Ontario to our north. Result is a backdoor cold front
crossing the region, which is shoving a moisture axis back westward
across the state...though deeper moisture (and ongoing activity)
remains well to our west over MN/SW Ontario amid the stronger
aforementioned return flow. A few more (high) clouds overhead today
though...compared to virtually nothing for the last couple
days...though a patch of lower clouds noted over NE Lower associated
with the front this morning.

Backdoor cold front to continue to rotate across the region through
tonight as ridge axis rotates overhead. Drier and cooler air to ooze
in from the east as high pressure moves over James/Hudson Bays.

Primary Forecast Concerns through Tonight:

Overall...not a ton of major concerns through tonight...just a
handful of tiny details. First of which is the breezy easterly winds
today, which are thus far remaining a bit further north than earlier
expectations, particularly gust-wise (20-25kt gusts as of 18z mainly
focused over northern Lake Huron)...though still expect these to try
to spread southward through the remainder of the afternoon...and
likely through the overnight, with the pressure gradient looking as
though it will remain a bit too strong for decoupling (except for
perhaps up across the EUP where it may begin to wane a bit). That
should, in theory, minimize potential for land breezes overnight as
well as minimize fog potential (more likely to keep things mixed up
to a low stratus deck).

Moisture is another concern, particularly this afternoon across NW
Lower, as there could be a threat of minimum RHs dropping into the
critical sub-30 percent range where the air mass is a touch
drier...and drying/warming could be further enhanced by east flow
downsloping. With some ever-so-slightly better moisture scooting in
right along the front...do have to wonder if there will be a bit of
fog/low stratus tonight, more than what we might expect? That little
area of cu/stratocu between Harrisville and Oscoda has been quite
persistent today...as has a subtle band of 2kft clouds slowly
draping across Ontario toward the Soo all day, though this, too, is
starting to dissipate...but started out much more broad/aggressive
earlier this morning with the front where it otherwise should have
been drier...so I do wonder if this will happen again tonight across
our region, particularly given we have the lakes around as a source
of low-level moisture... though it might end up being quite
localized if it does happen.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 332 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025

Days 2-3 (Wednesday-Thursday)...

Backdoor cold front to continue to pivot through Wednesday...with
drier air to ooze in from the east Wednesday night into Thursday as
high pressure pivots across Ontario and Quebec...into New England by
Thursday. Expect this will be the most seasonable period of the
week...remembering that normal high temperatures for early October
are in the lower to middle 60s. Highs Wednesday should be largely in
the 60s, especially east, though sites favored for east-flow
downsloping will make a run at the lower to middle 70s again (i.e.,
near and west of US-131)...and Thursday should be similar to today,
temperature wise...though winds should be starting to turn around to
the south by this time. With the drier air pivoting in Wednesday
night, will watch for some frost concerns again over the
interior...with potential for lows to drop into the 30s. For
now...think if any fire weather concerns do crop up...it would be on
Thursday...as return flow starts to pick up across the Upper MS
Valley (perhaps eking into our area)...leading to slightly
warmer temperatures amid that driest air.

Days 4-7 (Friday-Monday)...

High pressure over the east coast by late in the week...with
troughing across the western US...suggests a SW-NE oriented storm
track setting up across the central US into Canada as we go toward
the end of the forecast period and beyond. As we should be on the
back edge of the high pressure, we should also gain access to the
return flow...and will expect temperatures to start creeping up
again for the weekend. Potential for 850mb temps to rocket back up
into the 15C range suggests potential for much more summer-like
weather than early October weather...and with potential for highs in
the upper 70s to around 80 again...particularly amid the antecedent
dry air mass from Thursday...may need to monitor for some fire
weather concerns as southwest winds could pick up a bit, too. While
the focus of rain/convection should remain to our west...not
impossible a bit could sneak into part of our area perhaps as early
as Friday/Friday night on warm advection...but expected antecedent
dry air mass does again throw some questions as to whether it can
make it to the ground here...and may have to wait till early next
week until anything appreciable arrives. This being said...the storm
track will be quite close...and with anomalous moisture flowing into
the region...think we can`t totally write off the potential for
showers/storms at times.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 740 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025

Mainly VFR, with some low-end LLWS tonight CIU/APN/PLN. Surface
winds will diminish heading into tonight, though easterly winds
to persist just off the surface. Fog potential tonight looks
low. Mid and high clouds will be increasing on Wednesday, with
a light easterly breeze.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement until midnight EDT tonight for MIZ024-
     030-036-042.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for LHZ348-349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ341.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FEF
LONG TERM...FEF
AVIATION...JZ