558
FXUS63 KAPX 141132
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
632 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-High pressure leads to dry weather and anomalous warmth today.

-Quick-moving system zips through Saturday, bringing the next
 rain chances. Anomalous warmth prevails for one last day.

-Cooler with renewed lake effect snow chances Sunday and into Monday
 before we trend seasonable and less active through next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 209 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

Pattern Synopsis:

Amplified ridge over central NOAM will continue to force a potent
longwave trough into Atlantic Canada, leading to surface high
pressure over the Ohio Valley maintaining meteorological order
through the day today and tonight, with dry and anomalously warm
conditions prevailing. A Pacific borne wave currently residing in
the Canadian Rockies will crest the ridge, zipping into the upper
Midwest via quick zonal WNW flow. Result will be an uptick in return
flow, drawing warmer and more moist air into the Great Lakes.
Antecedent dry conditions will lead to a lack of saturation, but as
a warm advection wing passes through Lake Superior, suppose there is
just enough to force an isolated shower aloft as a stable layer
holds beneath a budding inversion.

Forecast Details:

If you want a gem of a day to catch up on autumnal yardwork, today
is the day! Surface high pressure will lead to a minimal SSE flow,
with partly to mostly sunny skies prevailing. Highs today top out in
the mid 40s in the eastern Yoop, 47-52 across far NE lower, and 52
to 59 across the rest of the region.

As we head into tonight, dry conditions continue to prevail, but an
increase in mid level cloud along with an increasingly pinched
pressure gradient drumming up SSE return flow, anticipating an
anomalously mild night across the region, especially across NW
lower. Some early decoupling may lead to an evening dip in
temperatures across NE lower and eastern Yoop (could see temps fall
to the 33 to 37 range, especially inland)... but otherwise, sure
looks like a lot of the CWA settles in the upper 30s to mid 40s
elsewhere (warmest west of US 131 in NW lower). As far as rain
shower chances go, anticipating that anywhere from 95 to 99% of the
APX footprint holds dry. Only hiccup may be a light shower across
Chippewa County (esp. closer to Lake Superior) as a WAA wing
traverses Lake Superior. Soundings look unimpressive, but do showcase
some elevated lift and saturation. Not anticipating much out of any
showers that manage to form... ample dry layer in the low levels
likely hampers any precip as it falls, so will roll with slight
chance PoPs along and north of M-28, and dry elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 209 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

Aforementioned shortwave trough digging into the Upper Midwest
traverses the region Saturday, forcing a cold front through the
region later in the day. This system, while Pacific borne, will
be moderated considerably by drier air stretching from Alberta
to the Great Lakes, limiting its potential for appreciable
precipitation. Anticipating limited instability with this
passage as well... so will likely see a narrow band of shallow
convection pretty much right along the front as it passes from
W to E through the late morning into the afternoon. Better
forcing will confine the more prevalent rains across eastern
upper. Nonetheless, this moisture starved system will serve as
nothing much more than a feature to crank up the winds and
eventually return a much more seasonable airmass. Would not be
surprised to see highs Saturday near daily records (low-to-mid
60s), but not expecting those to fall as highs generally settle
54 to 64 degrees. Most spots in northern lower probably see
0.10" or less of rain, with the eastern Yoop cashing in on
0.10-0.25" of rain.

In the wake of this system, sharply cooler NW flow builds into the
region, which should lead to temperatures returning back into the
30s to near 40 Sunday into Monday, as this feature digs into New
England and again leads to us positioning ourselves on the periphery
of a longwave troughing over eastern NOAM. Colder air aloft will
lead to lake effect snow potential, though it should be noted that
synoptic moisture leaves much to be desires. As a result,
anticipating the return of lake effect snows as overlake instability
builds Sunday and Monday... the issue is that with meager moisture,
there may not be enough to give the lake effect snowfall its usual
kick that it brings... so anticipating minor accumulations at best
across the NW lower snowbelts... though better moisture may lead to
higher amounts in any bands across the eastern Yoop... but still
rather minor (ceiling amounts for this would be 2-4" in any dominant
banding) Sunday into Monday. in addition to lake effect potential, it
will be quite breezy Sunday, with frequent 30 to 40mph gusts
possible, particularly in areas near the lakeshores north of M-72,
which should add a biting chill to this colder air intrusion.

Beyond this, the pattern relaxes as northern Michigan holds in the
neutral point of the pattern... sandwiched between the departing
longwave trough, and the next wave set to cut through the Corn Belt
/ northern Ohio Valley / lower Great Lakes... likely leaving
the region in a seasonably cool and somewhat drier regime to
close out next week... with highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s
and lows in the 20s and lower 30s. Will have to watch a southern
stream wave toward the very end of the forecast period that may
make a run at the Great Lakes from the southwest, but details
and timing of this feature remain quite murky at this juncture.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 632 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

Milder and relative dry airmass in place thru this evening. A
touch of fog has developed near Lake MI, and through this hasn`t
bothered MBL yet, PLN checked in with a BKN001 about an hour
ago. LIFR or worse is possible at PLN thru 14Z or so. Otherwise
VFR thru this evening. Clouds and winds will be increasing
tonight ahead of our next system. Have CIU seeing MVFR cigs
(with VCSH) after 15/10Z. Other places see low-end VFR
conditions, though with worse conditions expected beyond this
TAF period.

Relatively light winds today. South to sw breezes increase
tonight. Have LLWS late tonight at MBL/TVC.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday evening for
     LHZ345>348.
     Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday evening for
     LHZ349.
     Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday evening for
     LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAD
LONG TERM...HAD
AVIATION...JZ