938
FXUS63 KAPX 110545
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
145 AM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A patchy area or two of fog tonight?

- Seasonably warm temperatures continue through the extended.

- Showers, iso thunder chances, later Friday into Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 256 PM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Weak, moisture starved short wave shifts east through the overnight
hours (this feature has popped a rogue cluster of
showers near Roscommon alla current radar imagery ~3-4PM ET).
Cannot rule out a couple of showers lingering across south
central portions of northern lower and mainly Tip of the Mitt
northward as this feature shifts east, but negligible impact.
Perhaps some patchy fog tonight where sufficient cooling and low
level saturation overlap, but do not have a strong feeling for
it either way. Meanwhile, high pressure builds east southeast
across portions of Ontario and Quebec, shifting northern MI sfc
flow to the east on Thursday. Consequently, subtle cooling is
expected (~3 to 5 degrees) in the vicinity of the Lake Huron
shoreline. Ridging aloft across the center of the country will
build northeastward with increasing heights on Thursday. All
this to say, very little weather impacts over the next 24 hours,
with temperatures largely in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 256 PM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025

Day 2-3 (Friday - Saturday):

Positive upper height anomalies continue to build northward Friday
into the weekend. A transient omega block upper pattern sets up from
the Pac NW to Quebec, with ridging across the Upper Midwest and into
Ontario. The troughing on the eastern periphery of the ridge will
dive southeastward across the interior northeast with the base
of the trough axis and subsequent low level boundary moving in
the vicinity of northern MI late Friday, but more likely during
the daytime hours on Saturday. Thus, a tongue of moisture and
lift will produce scattered showers at times (perhaps a rumble
of thunder). Still seemingly plenty of uncertainty in regards to
spatial coverage of precipitation, intensity, and the degree of
elevated instability present. Leaning towards scattered showers
with a few rumbles of thunder possible as a most likely
scenario at this time. We`ll just have to keep an eye on this
feature going forward as some pieces of guidance are more
bullish on more moderate amounts of precipitation.

Days 4-7 (Sunday - Wednesday):

Ridging/higher heights build back over N MI Sunday with sfc high
pressure likely resulting in a drier period. There will be
moisture and instability not too far off to the west early to
mid next week, so we`ll have to watch for any advections/disturbances
moving eastward in the coming forecast cycles. But overall,
much of this period looks to continue on warmer and mainly
drier side.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 144 AM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025

Subtle boundary draped across area attm with light north/northeast
flow likely to keep low clouds/fog trapped near the surface through
the night. Expect prevailing LIFR cigs/visbys at most TAF sites
through 13-15z, with cigs rising to IFR/MVFR toward 18z. Less
confident in fog at CIU, where ongoing VFR/MVFR cigs could preclude
fog development, but do have tempo in there prior to daybreak to
suggest fog is possible. Light winds/possible lake breezes during
the afternoon, with cigs around 2kft or so; not impossible a
nuisance cloud deck gets stuck overhead that doesn`t mix out till
closer to 0z. Current signals for fog/low stratus again after 0z Fri
and have hinted at this in TAFs. Rogue shower possible, esp at CIU,
but have left this out of TAFs attm.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLD
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...FEF