917
FXUS63 KAPX 232315
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
615 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A high impact lake effect snow event is becoming increasingly likely
  across northwest lower and eastern upper Michigan Wednesday
 PM into Friday. High snowfall amounts and strong wind gusts
  may lead to rapid drops in visibility, blowing/drifting snow,
  and hazardous holiday travel.

- Otherwise mild to start the week with rain chances returning
  Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 323 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

Pattern Synopsis:

Troughing currently over New England will continue to slide over the
north Atlantic tonight and Monday as ridging presses over the Great
Lakes and Mississippi Valley from the west. Subsidence aloft
provided by said ridging will build surface high pressure across
much of the CONUS east of the Mississippi River through Monday.
Meanwhile, a closed mid/upper low will eject over the southern Great
Plains, providing sufficient forcing to generate a weak cyclone in
lee of the higher terrain as a second stronger trough begins to dig
across the Pacific Northwest.

Forecast Details:

Lingering light rain showers across the eastern U.P. are expected to
diminish over the next few hours as increasingly dry air noses in
with aforementioned ridging/high pressure. Northwest flow will keep
scattered/broken lake effect clouds in place for parts of northern
Michigan through the remainder of the day before winds shift to
south-southwest on Monday as high pressure builds to our southeast.
Breezy conditions are expected by Monday afternoon with gusts to 20-
30 mph, but mild temperatures in the upper 40s and low 50s will help
take the bite out of the wind. Rain chances are expected to hold off
until Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 323 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

Early this Week (Monday night-Tuesday Night):

Ridging looks to exit the region east Monday night into Tuesday. A
first wave will lift into the Ohio Valley/southern Great Lakes by
Tuesday, becoming increasingly open with time. Broad, relatively
weak low pressure will work into the Great Lakes Tuesday. Warm
advection ahead of this feature will keep mild temperatures in place
during the first half of the week. Temperatures are expected to stay
in the mid 30s to low 40s for most areas Monday night with afternoon
readings in the upper 40s to low 50s on Tuesday. Rain chances return
to the area late Monday night and Tuesday, although current
confidence is that many areas appear they will stay more dry than
wet during this timeframe. Best rain chances will come in the
vicinity of the warm front across the Tip of the Mitt and eastern
U.P., with lesser chances further south across mid Michigan. Drizzle
may persist for a time later Tuesday and Tuesday night ahead of the
main show of rain and snow discussed above.

Thanksgiving Lake Effect Snow (Wednesday-Saturday):

All signs continue to point towards a high impact lake effect snow
event for the Thanksgiving holiday across parts of northern
Michigan. Impressive amplified longwave troughing will dig across
the Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes on Wednesday, providing
strong ascent aloft that will quickly deepen a cyclone over
Michigan`s Upper Peninsula/Lake Superior as it pivots into Ontario
on Wednesday. The initial cold front looks to swing through earlier
Wednesday, cooling temperatures through the daytime as a secondary
front looks to swing through later in the afternoon/evening.
Temperatures are expected to drop below freezing for most areas
behind this second frontal passage, transitioning rain to snow as
west/northwest flow overspreads the region.

Both deterministic and ensemble model guidance continues to come
into agreement and raise confidence in a high impact lake effect
snow event occurring in the Wednesday evening - Friday morning
timeframe. Deep moisture through the vertical profile will wrap from
the Atlantic around the aforementioned cyclone, laying the
foundation for potential high snowfall rates of 1-2" per hour or
higher under any organized bands. Uncertainty in dominant wind
direction(s) remains the biggest question mark at this time and will
play the biggest role in determining which portions of northern
Michigan experience the highest amounts and worst impacts. Current
confidence leans towards a nearly straight westerly wind direction
through Wednesday night with a shift to more northwesterly flow with
time Thanksgiving day -- which would potentially fan out heaviest
snowfall and resultant impacts. While these details will become more
clear with time, localized double-digit snowfall amounts appear
possible with many receiving several inches of fresh snow by late
Thursday/early Friday.

While many people may focus on snowfall amounts as Thanksgiving
approaches, the potential impacts that would result from current
forecast winds cannot go understated in terms of holiday travel
Wednesday night and Thursday. Potential winds of 15-25 mph with
gusts of 30-45+ mph would create rapid drops in visibility in
falling snow -- especially with blowing snow across north-south
oriented roads -- drifting snow on roadways, and likely hazardous
travel for an extended period of time through the holiday across
impacted areas of northwest lower and eastern upper. As the previous
forecaster mentioned, treatment/pre-treatment of roads may be
difficult due to rainfall during the day on Wednesday and re-
covering of any roadways due to aforementioned winds. Those with
travel plans across northwest lower and eastern upper Michigan
Wednesday evening and Thursday should carefully review them and stay
tuned to the latest forecast for updates.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 613 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

Any lingering MVFR producing cigs will give way to VFR
conditions overnight through Monday under just some passing mid
and high level clouds. Winds go light tonight, becoming quite
gusty (in excess of 25 knots at times) out of the southwest on
Monday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LHZ346-
     349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LHZ347-
     348.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LSZ321.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...DJC
AVIATION...MSB