371
FXUS63 KAPX 250900
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
400 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Major travel disruptions expected for the Thanksgiving holiday,
  esp Wednesday night thru Thursday night. Significant snow accumulations
  and blowing snow will make for hazardous travel across the snow belts.

- Another chance for snow later this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 330 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Sfc low pressure system will continue to deepen today across MN and
eventually WI tonight due to stout 500 mb low upstream. Batch of
light showers will steadily progress northward through the day
consequent of the low pressure system to the west and associated
warm advection and low level convergence. Another little
perturbation in the flow moves west to east downstate, with
associated weak low pressure system and minor showery activity
clipping northern lower this afternoon. Overall, not a lot of
impactful weather today with just some scattered rain showers,
temperatures in the mid 40s to low 50s, and light winds.

Heading into tonight, sfc low pressure system ejects eastward,
deepens across WI, and begins to move into the western UP.
Consequently, sfc cold front will advect eastward and prompt the
first wave of cold advection across northern MI, in addition to a
band of rain. This first batch of showers will be all rain, but that
will soon change through the day on Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 330 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

Day 2-4 (Wednesday - Friday):

Temperatures will fall through the day on Wednesday as the sfc low
moves in the vicinity of the Straits and the core of the colder
airmass violently oozes across northern MI. No matter how you slice
it, the pressure gradient will tighten later Wednesday through
Thursday. Thus, not only will any rain showers transition to snow
through Wednesday afternoon/evening, but windy conditions are
anticipated into the overnight, with gusts well into the 30 to 40
mph range, perhaps up to 45 mph in spots.

As the low pressure system moves across the Straits region/eastern
Upper and upper low across northern MI, winds aggressively shift to
NW and over lake instability will blossom lake effect/enhanced
snows. Wednesday evening and overnight will probably feature a mix
of broader lake induced snows and then an eventual transition to
bands, or some combination. Guidance starting to hone in a little on
the sfc low position/sfc winds, with a pretty decent period of NNW-
NW. BL heights up to 700 mb, deep saturation, and favorable low
level temp profiles will be plenty conducive for heavy snowfall
rates of 1-2"/hr at times. Combine these snowfall rates with
wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph and episodic blizzard conditions
will be possible, assuming the strong low level winds can be
realized at the sfc within the heaviest snow bands.

Current guidance has ~6 to 12" of snow with higher amounts likely
across the broader traditionally favored NNW-NW snow belts, and
really impressive totals across Antrim, Kalkaska, and vicinity.
If a persistent northwest band sets up over Kalkaska county and
vicinity, truly impressive snow amounts will pile up over the
holiday. Most impactful period will be Wednesday night through
Thursday night, which is the juxtaposition of the heaviest
snowfall rates and strongest winds. The combination of strong,
gusty winds and heavy snowfall rates within the more impressive
lake effect bands will lead to periods of very low to near zero
visibility, blowing and drifting snow, and hazardous to
dangerous driving conditions later Wednesday through Thursday
night. Those with travel plans during this period should
continue to monitor the forecast for the latest updates.

There is still some uncertainty (as always) in exact wind
direction/band placement and resonance time as the low pressure
system moves off to the northeast. That being said, based on the
latest guidance, local/regional policy, and a loose analog of
previous events, there`s enough to expand the winter storm watch
to the south/southwest with either an eventual upgrade to
advisory or warning level snows. Strong winds will likely push
lake bands farther downstream, which could result in winter
products extending a little downstream of typical lake effect
zones. Strong winds could also result in lesser snows closer to
the coast, one of the reasons for the watch to remain just east
of Manistee, Benzie, and the Leelanau Peninsula (although prob
should have just included them).

Lake effect snow showers will continue into portions of Friday
before slowly coming to an end Friday evening, lessening in
intensity and coverage with each passing hour.


Days 5-7 (Saturday - Monday):

Brief break in the action is possible later Friday through early
Saturday, however, we`ll have to keep an eye on multiple short waves
later Saturday through Sunday and beyond. Pattern aloft includes
upper ridging across the north Pacific/adjacent to the west coast of
the US Canada with plenty of troughing diving south across southern
Canada and into the US. Thus, the interaction of the aforementioned
pieces of energy and where will determine the intensity, coverage,
and location of precipitation and snowfall. At this time, another
round of snow is possible, more area wide, for northern MI this
weekend, perhaps beyond to some extent with this favorable upper
pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1033 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

Still looking MVFR to IFR producing cigs and vis restrictions
in pockets of light rain/drizzle and mist developing through
this morning, with these condtions persisting right through this
taf period. Light winds will continue.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Friday
     morning for MIZ021-022-026>028-032>034-086-095-099.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 1 PM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Friday for
     LHZ345>349.
     Gale Warning from 4 PM Wednesday to 4 AM EST Friday for LMZ323-
     341-342-344>346.
     Gale Warning from 7 PM Wednesday to 1 AM EST Friday for LSZ321-
     322.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLD
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...ELD