669
FXUS63 KAPX 161117
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
617 AM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lake effect snow ramps up into the day today, lasting into
  Monday. Primary concerns are quick drops in visibility and
  localized hazardous travel conditions, especially across the
  eastern U.P.

- Largely precip-free through the middle of the week with
  gradually warming temperatures.

- Rain returns late this week into this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 243 AM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

Pattern Synopsis:

Troughing regime establishing itself over northeast NOAM will lead
to continued cold air advection across the upper Great Lakes.
Resulting northwest flow and continued overlake instability (850mb
temps roughly -7 to -10 Celsius) will lead to an uptick in lake
effect snow activity in the snowbelts, along with some influence
from Lake Huron to bring some snowfall into Presque Isle and Alpena
counties through the forecast period.

Forecast Details:

Lake induced instability is currently building across the upper
Great Lakes, with just enough lingering synoptic moisture to lead to
an outburst of lake effect snowfall across the region today into
early tonight. Resulting northwest flow will lead to three distinct
areas of focus for lake effect snows. It should be noted that
activity through daybreak will be loosely organized banding that
devolves into a cellular mode... then transitioning back to banding
overnight. Height rises build aloft as surface high pressure
intrudes, and this will begin to suppress this activity late tonight
and into Monday. While snow may struggle to accumulate efficiently
initially, anticipation is that as temperatures reach into the lower
30s and snowfall intensity increases, accumulations may begin to
transpire. Regardless of accumulations... the rapid onset nature of
the snowfall, gusty winds, and warm roads with falling temps could
lead to a nearly full-blown snow squall setup through the day today
where travel conditions drastically deteriorate over the course of a
mile or two on area thoroughfares impacted by lake snows. The three
primary impact regions are found below:

Eastern Upper: CAMs are in pretty high agreement that this area will
probably see the highest amounts of snowfall of the three impacted
areas. Area of focus will generally be across western Chippewa and
portions of both western and eastern Mackinac, perhaps occasionally
leaking into the Mackinac Bridge at times. Most areas across eastern
upper probably net 0.5 to 2.0 inches of accumulation by Monday
morning... but the aforementioned area of focus will be on the
docket to see a general 3 to 5 inches of accumulation... locally
7"+. The ongoing Winter Weather Advisory will remain in place.

NW Lower: Much more in the way of squally activity expected through
the day today, which will impact the US 131 and I-75 corridors.
Marginal temperatures through midday may hinder accums on roadways
until sundown and beyond once temps fall into the 20s and snow bands
organize more. Anticipating most activity to occur north and east of
Grand Traverse Bay. Most of this area probably sees 0.5 to 2.0
inches of accumulation through Monday morning. The area where the
heaviest snowfall focuses the most will run from NW to SE across
Antrim, eastern and northern Kalkaska, western Crawford, and
northern Roscommon, where there is potential for 2 to 4 inches of
snowfall, locally 5"+ by Monday morning. As such, a Winter Weather
Advisory has been issued for the aforementioned counties through 12z
/ 7am Monday, with amounts being secondary to potential for those
rapidly changing travel conditions.

Cheboygan, Presque Isle, and Alpena counties: This area is admittedly
riddled with uncertainty... but CAMs have been honing in on
leftover lake effect banding from eastern upper crossing over
Lake Huron and impacting these areas. For Cheboygan County, it
would primarily be the immediate coast / US 23 corridor east of
Cheboygan proper. This area stretches south and east across
northern / eastern portions of Alpena and Presque Isle counties...
including Rogers City, the Grand Lake / Long Lake area, and
possibly into the city of Alpena. Much of the same as the other
two regions... largely squally through the day with rapidly
changing travel conditions along the US 23 corridor. Banding
becomes more organized later tonight and with cooling temps
should bring more efficient accumulations around / after sunset.
A general 1 to 4 inches of snowfall (locally up to 5") is
possible by Monday morning across this region, with highest
confidence across northern / eastern Presque Isle and Alpena
counties, where a Winter Weather Advisory has been hoisted
through 12z / 7am Monday... again with amounts being secondary
to potential for rapidly changing travel conditions. Confidence
is not high enough to include Cheboygan County at this
juncture... but any subtle shifts in wind direction may
necessitate an expansion if that band can be forced farther
inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 243 AM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

Ridging over the Plains will slowly force its way into the Great
Lakes Monday into Tuesday, bringing with it the influences of
surface high pressure, which will taper lake effect snowfall through
the day Monday... and leading to largely dry conditions across the
region Tuesday through the start of Thursday. Temperatures are set
to moderate as well, with highs in the 30s Monday rising to the mid-
to-upper 40s through Thursday. Next batch of sensible weather looks
to hold until Thursday night / Friday as a system works into the
Great Lakes and delivers rain chances to the region.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 612 AM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

Most sites currently VFR conditions with cigs BKN-OVC AOA 3 kft
and P6SM vis. Scattered -SHSN & -SHRA are moving over northern
MI this morning, leading to the one exception of KCIU with
times of vis down to 1SM or less due to SHSN. NW winds of 10 to
15kts with G20 to 25kts will continue through 06Z. KPLN/KAPN
could see times of MVFR cigs/vis due to -SHSN from 16Z thru 03Z.
KMBL/KTVC will struggle to see showers today, and any that do
form near them will be RA.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for MIZ018-021-
     024-027-028-034-086-095-096.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for LHZ345>349.
     Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for LMZ323-341-342-
     344.
     Gale Warning until 11 AM EST this morning for LMZ345-346.
     Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAD
LONG TERM...HAD
AVIATION...ELD