863
FXUS63 KAPX 040420
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1120 PM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty winds gradually diminish through tonight, although remaining
  a touch breezy on Tuesday. Low end fire weather concerns Tuesday
  afternoon.

- Rain chances return Tuesday night/Wednesday and again Thursday
  night/Friday.

- Long range trends support colder air arriving late this weekend
  into early next week, potentially bringing the season`s first snow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 147 PM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Upper-level trough axis and attendant
surface reflection are now situated just downstream early this
afternoon with the vast majority of last night`s/this morning`s
wet weather in the rear-view mirror. Upper-level flow becomes
more zonal tonight through Tuesday. Meanwhile at the surface,
~1030mb high pressure is expected to trek across the TN/OH
Valleys, nosing into the Great Lakes.

Forecast Details: Gusty west-northwest winds remain the rule through
the remainder of the day today, albeit with quite a bit of sunshine
across the vast majority of northern MI. Winds gradually weaken
tonight, although become a touch breezy once again on Tuesday.
Lows tonight generally ranging from the low/mid 30s across the
typically colder/interior spots to the low 40s along the
immediate Lake Michigan shoreline.

Tuesday`s highs progged to rise through the 50s area-wide, warmest
near Saginaw Bay where a few locations may flirt with 60 degrees.
With continued breezy winds and aggressive low-mid level drying
still underway, suppose there`s some localized low end fire weather
concern with dew points potentially falling as low as 25-35%,
primarily in downsloping areas of northeast lower.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 147 PM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

Pattern Forecast: By Tuesday afternoon, weak low pressure is
expected to be evident across the Dakotas. This wave expected to
race east through Tuesday evening with renewed shower chances across
parts of northern MI Tuesday night into Wednesday. High pressure
follows in its wake Wednesday night/Thursday before more active
weather returns to wrap up the work week. By Saturday, fairly decent
long range guidance agreement that a clipper system dives out of
southwest Canada into the Plains before moving through the Ohio
Valley later in the weekend -- potentially drawing in colder air on
the backside for late weekend into early next week.

Day 2-4 (Tuesday night - Thursday): Shower chances return Tuesday
night-Wednesday, especially across the northern half of the forecast
area as strengthening low pressure zips across the Great Lakes
region. Some uncertainty as to just how numerous or long lasting
these showers are. Shot of cooler air expected to be drawn in on the
backside of this system for Wednesday night with potentially a few
wet snowflakes mixing in where any lake aided activity lingers. High
pressure crosses to our south during the day Thursday with at least
partial sunshine expected.

Day 5-7 (Friday - Sunday): Another round of more active weather late
week as the pattern amplifies once again. Rain chances return
Thursday night and continue at times through Friday as trends
support low pressure diving out of southern Canada into the upper MS
Valley/Great Lakes. Beyond this late week system, ensemble trends
continue to support another clipper system diving across nation`s
midsection this weekend with colder air arriving toward the tail end
and just beyond the end of the long term forecast period. We`ll see
if that holds in the coming days -- if so, could be our first real
shot of some snow across parts of the Northwoods.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1117 PM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

VFR conditions through the period. Skies SKC over most
terminals. NW winds becoming AOB 10kts and VRB. Winds will turn
W and strengthen to 10kts with G15 to 20kts over NE lower, tip
of the mitt, and eastern upper terminals after 16Z
(KCIU/KAPN/KPLN). Winds will diminish to AOB 5kts after 22Z.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for LHZ345>347.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for LHZ348-349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EST Tuesday for LMZ323-341-
     344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Tuesday for LMZ342.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Tuesday for LSZ321.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...MJG
AVIATION...ELD