051
FXUS63 KAPX 122310
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
610 PM EST Wed Nov 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lake effect/enhanced showers gradually diminish later tonight
  through Thursday.

- Trending drier and warmer late this week.

- Renewed precipitation chances this weekend into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 214 PM EST Wed Nov 12 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Broad upper-level troughing present
across the eastern third of the CONUS this afternoon bounded by
ridging off the Atlantic coast and over the Intermountain West.
Northern MI continues to lie on the periphery of deep moisture
centered to our north with marginal over-lake instability aiding in
ongoing lake effect/enhanced showers. Tonight through Thursday
should feature gradual drying conditions as heights aloft rise, low-
mid level warm advection continues, and drier air continues to push
in from the west.

Forecast Details: Rain showers continue this afternoon, most
predominantly over the eastern U.P. into the tip of the mitt and
parts of north-central and northeast lower. Drier conditions far
southwestern areas with even some peeks of sun trying their best to
nose into those areas. Not a whole lot of change heading through
tonight with the most frequent showers expected north of the bridge
and to a lesser extent across the west-northwest flow lake belts of
northern lower.  While the bulk of these should continue to remain
rain, the low level thermal profile does cool after sunset -- enough
so to reintroduce a rain/snow mix or even pockets of all snow in any
steadier/heavier showers, mainly across the interior higher terrain
of eastern upper and north-central lower. Not much anticipated in
way of accumulation, but does result in at least a low chance
for some slick spots on interior/higher terrain roads overnight.

Southwest to northeast drying trend becomes more notable late
tonight and through Thursday. Early Thursday morning shower activity
largely confined to the tip of the mitt and north with those chances
waning entirely as we head through the midday and afternoon hours.
Sunshine becoming plentiful across much of northern lower through
the day with high temperatures area-wide spanning the 40s -- maybe
even a couple of low 50s near and south of M-55. That said,
occasionally breezy west winds will keep the wind chill largely in
the 30s/low 40s through the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 214 PM EST Wed Nov 12 2025

Pattern Forecast: By Thursday night, mid-upper level heights
continue to rise across the Great Lakes in response to upstream
ridging making slow headway east of the Rockies and across the
Plains. This ridge axis makes slow, but steady, eastward progress
late this week, becoming centered overhead locally Friday night.
Attendant sfc high pressure expected to be situated over the eastern
half of the CONUS through this time frame. By Saturday, attention
turns to a deepening wave dropping out of Canada into the western
Lakes, likely bringing renewed rain chances and potentially a return
of cooler air and additional lake induced rain/snow chances late in
the weekend into early next week.

Day 2-3 (Thursday night through Saturday): Partly to mostly sunny
skies anticipated Friday with lighter winds and high temperatures
largely ranging from the mid-40s to low 50s area-wide. Clouds
expected to build Friday night with rain chances arriving as early
as late Saturday morning, but more so through the afternoon hours in
advance of aforementioned low pressure and attendant cold front to
our northwest. A pretty mild day on Saturday (despite increasing
rain chances) on the heels on increasing southerly winds with highs
ranging from near 50 north to near 60 degrees far south.

Day 4-7 (Saturday night - Tuesday): Cooler air begins to filter in
Saturday night in response to increasing cold advection as winds
turn out of the northwest post frontal passage. Some degree of
uncertainty exists with just how cold the low-mid level thermal
profile gets Sunday - Monday, but certainly enough support for
additional lake effect/enhanced showers -- likely turning to all
snow at times across parts (if not all) of northern Michigan.

By late Monday/Tuesday, watching another mid-level wave approaching
from the southwest. Very little confidence on where this wave tracks
and the resultant implications on our sensible weather, but close
enough at this point to continue precip chances across parts of
northern MI through the end of the forecast period (either as a
direct result of this wave itself, or continued lake effect chances
if this wave is suppressed south).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 607 PM EST Wed Nov 12 2025

Primarily VFR conditions through the period, with perhaps some
brief periods of MVFR cigs at KCIU with passing light
showers/mixed snow showers tonight. Skies will gradually clear
from southwest to northeast on Thursday, although a VFR
producing strato-cu deck looks to hold on much of the day at
KCIU. Gusty west to northwest winds will continue through the
duration.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Thursday for LHZ345>349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Thursday for LMZ323-341-
     342-344.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for LMZ345-346.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Thursday for LSZ321.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...MJG
AVIATION...MSB/FEF