481
FXUS63 KAPX 021101
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
601 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Light lake effect snow showers linger today delivering only small
additional accumulations.

-Weak cold frontal passage returns another round of light snowfall
with localized higher amounts via lake enhancement.

-Cold temperatures occupy the Great Lakes region this Thursday
 followed by continued period chances of snowfall this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 339 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

Pattern Synopsis...Midlevel closed low pressure over Hudson Bay with
long wave troughing occupying the northern CONUS will continue to
keep cool cP air over the Great Lakes region through the entirety of
the forecast period. Weak anticyclonic flow across the region will
continue light lake effect snow showers for typical SW flow areas
today, but dry low/mid level air being advected into the region will
slowly scour out precip by tonight.

Forecast Details...

Today...Condtions across the region begin to turn quiet as surface
high pressure currently building across the Mid-Mississippi valley
slowly pushes dry air into the CWA today. Subsidence aloft will kill
precipitation for most locations. Bands that are currently impacting
the counties near the Lake Michigan shorelines will weaken, but have
enough momentum to carry light showers through the afternoon. Any
additional accumulations are expected to be just a trace of light
18:1 snow as bands to not have any synoptic support. Areas along
Antrim, Charlevoix, and Emmit counties will accumulate an additional
few tenths to an inch of snowfall while hi-rez guidance does depicts
localized additional snowfall of 1-3" just north of Little Traverse
Bay. But again; these bands will be very localized and not impact
the majority of the region due to a lack of Synoptic support.

Tonight...Continued overall quiet weather is expected to continue as
a few flurries only impact localized areas of the CWA (which is very
par of the course for Northern Michigan in December). Warm air
advection does move into the region tonight causing winds to become
breezy while remaining mostly southwest. Lows remain somewhat mild
as a result of WAA with expected widespread temperatures in the mid
20s by Wednesday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 339 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

Wednesday and Thursday...An embedded shortwave currently north of
Montana will track eastward and make its way to Northern Ontario
this Wednesday. Surface low pressure connected to this wave will drag
a frontal passage across the Great Lakes region, returning another
round of widespread snowfall to northern Michigan Wednesday
afternoon through Thursday morning. Dynamics of this system are not
ideal as the embedded trough appears to be weakening with time and
the frontal passage not tapping into deep southerly moisture.
Highest probabilities of snowfall remain between a general half inch
to 2" for most locations but northwestern gusty winds behind the
front will likely deliver locally higher amounts via lake
enhancement. Still a little too early to advertise snowfall totals
depending on how robust the lake response is, but classic northwest
flow has the highest probabilities to receive a few inches of
even more snowfall this week.

Friday Through Monday Outlook...Long wave troughing spanned across
the northern half of north America will continue to deliver periods
of (somewhat) active weather through the reminder of the long term.
Long range ensembles continue to keep low probs of snowfall through
the weekend from embedded high disturbances or continued cool
northwest flow triggering LES. No evidence of widespread heavy
precipitation, but this long snowy pattern will remain in place
delivering light snow showers as we head into mid December.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 600 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

Ongoing snow showers -- most notably across the Tip of the Mitt near
PLN -- will continue to diminish this morning. MVFR CIGs should
persist across northwest lower Michigan into tonight, and eventually
extend to CIU and APN this evening. Mainly light southwest winds
between 5-10 kts are in store for today before increasing later this
evening and tonight as a cold front encroaches on the area from the
northwest. Lowering clouds are expected as this front approaches,
potentially dropping TAF sites besides APN to IFR by the end of the
issuance period.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for MIZ016.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for MIZ017-
     088-096-097-099.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST
     Wednesday for LHZ345>349.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST
     Wednesday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST
     Wednesday for LSZ321.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SJC
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...DJC