811
FXUS63 KAPX 021927
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
227 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold front on Wednesday ushers in another shot of cold air and
more lake effect snow showers.

- Weather remains relatively active thereafter, with more
  chances for snow showers at various times right into next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 226 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Aggressive northern stream flow regime continues, with much of the
northern Conus...including the Great Lakes...encompassed by long-
wave troughing. Embedded shortwave troughs racing across the
region...one exiting stage right into the eastern Great Lakes
...with yet another diving southeast into the northern Plains.
Northern Michigan currently centered between these systems...with
weak surface ridge axis running south to north across the area.
Still getting some lingering very light snow showers/flurries
rotating off the big waters, although most areas remain dry under
partly to mostly cloudy skies. A seasonably chilly one, with current
temperatures in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

Northern Plains wave will continue to race east, with it and its
attendant rather vigorous cold front slicing across the area on
Wednesday.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Temperature trends and addressing additional lake augmented snow
concerns tonight and Wednesday.

Details:

Other than perhaps a few flurries rotating off northern Lake
Michigan, expect rather uneventful conditions to persist through
this evening. Conditions begin to change overnight with rapid
approach of that upstream cold front. Increasingly gusty pre-frontal
southwest winds and some deepening of mid level moisture should
again help ignite some southwest flow driven Lake Michigan enhanced
snows. However, unlike the event just this past night, several
factors should help significantly throttle back on snow organization
and intensity...to include shallow convective depths (sub 5kft),
disjointed moisture above this convective layer, and steadily
veering convective layer winds. This band of lake augmented snow
will sweep rapidly east across the area later tonight through
Wednesday morning/early afternoon. All told, thinking any snow
accumulations will be relatively minor with this first "event"...a
general 1 to perhaps 3 inches in northwest lower/eastern upper
Michigan...with less than an inch likely elsewhere. However, no
doubt some travel impacts will occur, especially as those gusty
southwest winds help blow some of that snow around. Pretty intense
post-frontal drying and subsidence should initially throttle back on
northwest flow lake effect snow showers during the afternoon, with
perhaps a bit more organization into the snowbelts of eastern upper
Michigan by later in the day.

Lows tonight in the upper teens to lower 20s will likely occur
relatively early, with readings slowly rising during the early
morning hours as winds and clouds increase. Opposite trend occurs
Wednesday, with morning/early afternoon highs topping out mostly in
the lower 30s before temperatures begin to drop during the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 226 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Long-wave troughing remains in place through the period, with
maintenance of active northern stream flow helping drive embedded
shortwave troughs periodically across the region right into next
week. This will keep temperatures a bit on the cold side of normal
and bring more snow chances at times to the Northwoods.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Temperature trends and addressing additional snow concerns through
the period.

Details:

Shot of some modified Arctic air set to visit the area Wednesday
night into Thursday night. Northwest winds will help drive in these
cold temperatures, of course continuing to ignite lake snows off
those big waters. Main area of more impactful snow looks to reside
across the snowbelts of eastern upper Michigan Wednesday night into
Thursday morning, with pattern recognition and guidance both
supporting the development of lake aggregate troughing up across
Whitefish Bay into the central basin. This would help focus low
level convergence into eastern upper, likely helping drive much more
organized and locally intense snows into those snowbelt regions.
While any synoptic moisture contribution will be limited, decent
convective depths up to 10kft should definitely help compensate
some. Different story across northern Lake Michigan, with even
shallower convective depths and lack of any significant low level
convergence. This should keep lake snows a bit less organized and
intense into northwest lower Michigan, although simple persistence
of snow showers should support some minor accumulations (probably on
the order of a few inches).

As mentioned, airmass dropping into the area will be a quite cold
one. Likely looking at highs Thursday not getting out of the teens
across some interior areas, with lows Thursday night in the single
digits and lower teens. Of course, that only tells part of the
story...with gusty northwest winds making it feel several degrees
colder yet...producing wind chill values down into the single digits
both above and below zero.

Airmass modifies a bit Friday into Saturday before next wave and
attendant slug of cold air arrives Sunday into Monday. Even more
fast moving waves set to visit the region heading through next week.
While pattern recognition strongly supports a complete disconnect to
any deep sub-tropical moisture with these waves...deep forcing and
continued lake processes will no doubt continue to kick off lake
enhanced/effect snow showers at times right through the period.
Temperatures will continue to run several degrees below normal,
coldest during that Sunday/Monday timeframe when highs will likely
only top out in the lower to middle 20s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1245 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

Lingering snow showers across the tip of the Mitt will continue
to diminish through early afternoon. VFR/ MVFR conditions will
trend predominantly MVFR across northwest lower Michigan into
tonight, and eventually extend to CIU and APN this evening.
Southwest winds will increase tonight (occasional gusts 20-25
knots) along with snow chances from west to east as a front
approaches the region. Lowering clouds are expected as the front
tracks to the region, potentially dropping TAF sites to IFR
near the end of the issuance period.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST
     Wednesday for LHZ345>349.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST
     Wednesday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST
     Wednesday for LSZ321.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...NSC