593
FXUS63 KAPX 142052
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
352 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances tonight/Saturday with passing frontal boundaries.
Isolated thunder possibilities (not really)??

- Windy Saturday afternoon/night.

- Colder with lake convection developing Saturday night and
continuing into Monday.

- Moderating temperatures for midweek and possibly becoming
unsettled.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 345 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Progressive pattern in place across North
America; negative tilt long wave trough from eastern Canada into the
western Atlantic...with a short wave ridge moving into the Plains
and central Canada. Split Pacific trough along the west coast...
strong northern branch height falls (160m/12h) across Alberta/
Saskatchewan...southern branch upper low off the California coast.
987mb occluded low with the northern branch wave over
Saskatchewan...warm front extends southeast across the Midwest
and into the southeastern U.S.. 1025mb surface high over the mid
Atlantic with a ridge axis extending northwest across the Great
Lakes/northwest Ontario.

Short wave ridge axis crosses the upper Great Lakes tonight while
low level thermal/moisture ridge pokes in from the southwest. Pretty
impressive 850mb temperatures from +8C to +12C expected to advect
across northern Michigan tonight as the warm front makes its
way across...before upstream cold/occluded front sweeps across
the forecast area from late morning through about mid afternoon
Saturday.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Rain chances tonight/Saturday with passing frontal boundaries.
Isolated thunder possibilities (not really)??: Strong warm
advection ongoing east of the approaching warm front...
relatively dry upstream however with the result of the
isentropic ascent being mostly mid/high clouds across the area
at mid afternoon. But surface dew points in the 50s are working
northward into Illnois/Iowa...so the expectation is for better
low level moisture flux over the warm frontal surface and into
Lower Michigan during the overnight hours. The set up is rather
interesting just from a pattern perspective with a sharp low
level theta-e ridge undercutting steeper 700-500mb lapse rates
(7-7.5C/km). This leads to several hundred J/kg of elevated
CAPE across roughly the southeast half of the forecast area
during the overnight and morning hours of Saturday...but at the
same time there may not be enough moisture to overcome capping.
So the probability for some convective showers developing
Saturday morning across parts of northeast Lower/Lake Huron
looks to be too minimal to add to the forecast...but if there is
lightning on Lake Huron Saturday morning you heard it here
first. Does appear to be a pretty good signal for low clouds/
fog developing to the east of the warm front (dew points on the
warm side higher than air temperatures on the cool side)...and
perhaps enough cloud depth to support some drizzle. Best chance
for measureable precipitation will come with the cold front and
associated short wave passage Saturday.

Windy Saturday afternoon/night: Cold frontal passage during the day
Saturday will swing winds around to the west/northwest...and
become gusty with onset of cold advection/mixing and perhaps a
bit of an isallobaric boost at frontal passage. Gusts upward of
25-35mph likely across northern Lower...and 30-40mph across
eastern Upper (another consequence will be temperatures falling
through the 40s during the afternoon). Gusty winds likely to
continue Saturday night as CBL depth increases as 850mb
temperatures dive below zero.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 345 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Colder with lake convection developing Saturday night and continuing
into Monday: Post-cold frontal air mass will cool things down
rapidly Saturday afternoon/Saturday night...which will set the
stage for northwesterly flow lake convection. Probably starting
off as some rain showers or mixed rain/snow showers as surface
based warm layer erodes Saturday night. 850mb temperatures
dropping to around -10C on Lake Superior and -8C on Lakes
Michigan/Huron by Sunday morning...which will increase the CBL
depth probably into the 750-800mb range.  Have 2-4 inches
across eastern Upper for Saturday night through Sunday
afternoon...and so far an inch or less across northern Lower
where thermodynamics are not as impressive and surface
temperatures may be a bit marginal.  Will need to watch for a
two lake band coming off of Lake Superior and clipping parts of
Presque Isle/Alpena counties. Cold deep layer northwesterly flow
continues Sunday night into Monday...but high pressure starts
to build in Monday afternoon which weaken the low level flow and
also start to weaken the overlying thermodynamics. Expect lake
convection to wind down Monday night for the most part.

Moderating temperatures for midweek and possibly becoming
unsettled:  Southern branch upper low moving into southern
California this weekend will push inland for the start of next
week...which in turn brings higher heights into the eastern
half of the CONUS by Wednesday.  The result is expected to be a
slow moderation in temperatures for the latter half of the
week...mostly seasonable by Thursday and perhaps above normal by
the end of the week. This dovetails with the 6-10 day outlook
(Thursday-Sunday) which is showing some good probabilities for
above normal temperatures (as well as leaning toward above
normal precipitation which may arrive as soon as Thursday).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1242 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

VFR conditions are expected to continue across northern Michigan
through tonight. Mainly light south-southeast winds will become
increasingly gusty late tonight, eventually turning to west-
northwest with sustained speeds of 10-15 kts and gusts to 20-30 kts
by Saturday afternoon as a cold front swings through. Flight
conditions are also expected to deteriorate quickly with the arrival
of the front, dropping CIGs across many areas to IFR/LIFR through
the morning hours. Also accompanying the front will be the return of
light rain chances late in the issuance period, perhaps resulting in
brief drops in VSBY prior to 18Z Saturday -- most likely at CIU and
PLN.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday evening for
     LHZ345>349.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 5 PM EST Sunday
     for LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
     Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday evening for
     LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...DJC