375
FXUS63 KARX 030522
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1122 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low potential for showers (10-40%) tonight into Monday
  morning, primarily north of I-90 in west/north-central
  Wisconsin.

- Temperatures warm over the next few days with dry conditions
  expected. High temperatures reach the upper 50s to low 60s by
  Tuesday.

- Potential for showers returns by the end of the week (30-50%).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 137 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

Low Shower Potential Tonight into Monday morning

Breezy southwest winds with gusts of 30-40 mph continue this
afternoon owing to a tightens pressure gradient associated with
a 500hPa shortwave trough and attendant surface low pressure
system currently over southern Canada. Areas west of the
Mississippi River into north-central Wisconsin are favored for
the strongest winds.

The aforementioned upper level trough and surface low will
continue their march eastward through the afternoon before
dragging a frontal boundary through the region tonight.
Saturation in the 700-500hPa layer accompanied by strong
frontogenesis as these features move through should be
sufficient for some high-based light showers to develop,
although 02.15z RAP/HRRR soundings continue to show a dry
subcloud layer which will largely limit the amount of rainfall
observed at the surface. The greatest precipitation potential
(10-40%) resides primarily north of I-90 into west/north-
central Wisconsin where forcing is expected to be strongest and
low-level saturation slightly more favorable. Amounts are
expected to only be a few hundreths of an inch as much of the
rainfall should evaporate before reaching the surface and given
thermal profiles remain above freezing through around 6kft, any
precipitation that falls is expected to fall as rain.

Warming Temperatures and Dry

In the wake of tonight`s low pressure system, low-level ridging
builds into the region through the beginning of the week
allowing for generally dry conditions. Clear to mostly clear
skies Monday should allow for efficient mixing through the day,
warming temperatures into the mid to upper 50s. Surface
dewpoints should also mix out during the day which combined with
breezy northwest winds over Wisconsin as today`s tightened
pressure gradient lingers over the region leads to some
increased fire weather concern Monday.

Low level warm air advection increases Tuesday on the backside
of the ridge, allowing 925hPa temperatures to reach 7-9C across
the region based on the 02.00z LREF, resulting in high
temperatures climbing into the upper 50s for most locations to
low 60s for areas south of I-90. High confidence in these
temperatures as the 10th-90th spread for 925hPa temperatures in
the 02.00z LREF is 2C at most.

As the low level ridging begins to move eastward Tuesday night,
some precipitation potential creeps into the Midwest as a weak
shortwave trough traverses the zonal upper level pattern. At the
surface, weak cyclogenesis develops over the northern Great
Plains in response, moving eastward through the region, becoming
the focus for said precipitation potential. There has been a
decreasing trend in probabilities across our area in the NBM
given the trajectory of the low, as deeper saturation and
stronger forcing will exist north of this feature across
northern Wisconsin. As such, potential for showers Tuesday
evening for areas north of I-94 sit at < 15%.

Late Week Shower Potential

By the end of the week, an upper level trough ejects into the
Great Plains, moving through the Midwest in the Thursday night
into Friday timeframe. As it does, the 02.00z LREF highlights
precipitation potential increasing across the region in
response, with 40-60% probabilities of measurable
precipitation, primarily over Wisconsin. The 02.13z NBM is
slightly less excited with probabilities over our area (30-50%),
instead favoring areas further east for higher potential.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1122 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

VFR conditions through the TAF period. Light rain will continue
to gradually shift south during the early overnight hours with
rain chances ending between 08Z and 10Z. CIGS around 8kft to
10kft while it is raining then clear skies through the
afternoon. Southwest winds shift to northwest winds after the
rain ends as a weak cold front moves through the region tonight.
The northwest winds increase later this morning and continue
through the afternoon with sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph and
gusts of 25 to 35 mph especially in Wisconsin and southeast
Minnesota.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Falkinham
AVIATION...Cecava