513
FXUS63 KARX 231901 CCA
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion...corrected
National Weather Service
La Crosse WI 1259 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm through Tuesday and then turning much
  colder.

- Periodic rain from Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Rain
  changing over to snow on Tuesday night, and periodic light
  snow or flurries into Thanksgiving. At this time, the best
  chance of snow accumulations will be north of Interstate 90.

- More snow accumulations possible on Friday night and Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1249 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

From Tonight through Monday Morning

High pressure will be control of the weather through much of Monday
morning. Low temperatures will be in the 30s. These temperatures
will be well above normal (normals are in the low and mid-20s). The
high temperatures on Monday will range from around 50 to the mid-50s
on Monday. These temperatures will be 10 to 15F warmer than normal
(normals are around 40).

For late tonight, we will have to watch for the potential for either
dense fog or low stratus clouds moving into northeast Iowa and
maybe parts of southeast Minnesota from DMX`s area. There was
some discussion about possibility of issuing a Dense Fog
Advisory, but opted to just monitor things for now.

Monday Afternoon through Tuesday

The models in the Grand Ensemble are in good agreement that a
southern stream trough will move northeast through the Mid and Upper
Mississippi River Valley. Soundings continue to show that the air
mass will be sufficiently warm enough for this precipitation to fall
as rain. With much of the forcing and moisture transport, the
rainfall totals have decreased from yesterday. There is good
consensus in the Grand Ensemble clusters that the 10th percentile is
around a hundredth of an inch. Meanwhile, the 90th percentile ranges
from a tenth to a quarter of an inch.

Tuesday Night into Wednesday

The models still are in good agreement that a northern stream short
wave trough will move through the region. A few of the stronger
member even show a bit of phasing being the southern stream trough.
This wave is a bit further north than yesterday. 30% of ensemble
(consisting of mainly GEFS 37% and GEPS 75%) have 1-3 inches (10th
to 90th percentiles) of snow as far south as the Interstate 90
corridor in southeast Minnesota. Meanwhile, the remaining 70%
members of the Grand Ensemble has its snow primarily north of the
Interstate 94 corridor. Many of these members are along or north of
Wisconsin 29. The ensembles have show anywhere from 1 and 4 inches
of snow at Medford, Wisconsin. Elsewhere, snow totals in the 10th to
90th percentiles range from just a trace to maybe an inch.

Thanksgiving

With some cyclonic flow remaining aloft on Thanksgiving, it will be
partly to mostly cloudy with scattered flurries. Like yesterday, the
highest probabilities for seeing these flurries will be in north-
central and central Wisconsin.

High temperatures have cooled from yesterday. They now look like
they will range from mid-20s to lower-30s. This is 5 to 15 degrees
colder than normal. These temperatures will be similar to last
Thanksgiving (November 28) when we had high temperatures in the mid-
and upper 20s.

Low temperatures will range from 15 to 20 degrees. This is 5 to 10
degrees colder than normal. These low temperatures are very similar
to last Thanksgiving when we had low temperatures in the mid-teens.

With west winds at 10 to 15 mph, wind chills will start the day in
the 5 to 15 degree range and from 15 to 25 degrees during the day.

Black Friday into Saturday

Many of ensemble models are continuing to show that the upper level
ridge will move east across the region early on Black Friday and
then a shortwave trough will slide southeast out of the Northern
Plains and move it southeast across the Upper and Mid Mississippi
River Valleys. The Grand Ensemble mean is showing the highest snow
(an average of 4 inches in the 90th percentile) totals along and
south of Interstate 90. 83% of the members have the 90th percentile
in the 4 to 5 inch range. One important thing to note that these are
10 to 1 snow to snow ratios.

High temperatures on Black Friday will range from the mid-20s to the
lower 30s. This is 10 to 15 degrees colder than normal. During last
year`s Black Friday (November 29), high temperatures ranged from mid-
teens to mid-20s. During 5 out of the last 7 Black Fridays, high
temperatures have been in the 20s and 30s.

Low temperatures will range from 10 to 20 degrees. This will be 10
to 15 degrees colder than normal. During last year`s Black Friday,
we had low temperatures ranging from 5 to 15 degrees. During the
past 4 out 5 Black Fridays, low temperatures have ranged from 5 to
15 degrees.

With west and northwest winds at 5 to 10 mph, the wind chills will
be very close to the actual air temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1131 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Potential aviation concerns return after 06z Monday, when fog
and/or stratus may develop in NE IA but should stay away from
RST/LSE. As time goes on, increasing moisture should lead to
MVFR to IFR conditions spreading across areas west of the
Mississippi by the tail end of the period, including at RST.
These will eventually spread across the area, including LSE,
after the TAF period closes at 18z Monday. Otherwise, winds will
tend to be a consistent south-southwesterly.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Boyne
AVIATION...Ferguson