Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI
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303 FXUS63 KARX 171808 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 1208 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Measurable snow (potentially 1-3 inches) looking likely near Interstate 90 late tonight and on Tuesday morning. - Rain later in the week (Thursday night and Friday) is looking far less likely, so transitioned the forecast drier. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 234 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 This Afternoon through Tuesday The 17.00z ensembles are general agreement that the surface low will track southeast from eastern Nebraska through southwest Iowa and then east across northern Missouri and central Illinois. Soundings along Interstate 90 are slightly cold than they were yesterday indicating more of a chance of snow after midnight tonight and on Tuesday morning. Moderate to strong 800 to 600 mb frontogenesis continues to be shown south of Interstate 94. In addition, the lift is being enhanced by upper level divergence associated with the left exit region of the upper jet. The 17.00z HREF shows a narrow (1 to 2 county wide) 2-4 inch snow band along Interstate 90. The probability of matched mean indicate that there is a potential for localized 4-6 inch amounts. Hourly snow amounts will be likely up to a half-inch. Lowered the hourly temperatures overnight by a degree and the transition to all snow to 34 degrees. This resulted in a band of 2-3 inches which seems rather realistic considering the forcing and the DESI snow probabilities. Thursday Night into Friday Unlike yesterday, there has been significant shift southward track in the low pressure system that was supposed to affect the area during this time period. It is now forecast to move east through the Mid-Mississippi River Valley east into the Mid- Atlantic region. With this new track, the area is looking drier, so trended the forecast that way. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1208 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 VFR conditions continue through the afternoon and evening hours today with ceilings between 5-10kft and southeast winds of 10kts or less. Overnight, a low pressure system moves eastward through the region, resulting in a messy winter weather scenario through Tuesday morning. Rain moves northward into the area tonight, transitioning to snow after 06z, although confidence in exactly when this transition occurs is low. Once it does occur, snow/wintry mix is expected to continue through Tuesday morning, generally along and south of a line from KMSP to KSTE, ending west to east toward the end of the current TAF period. Widespread IFR conditions are expected for these same areas through the day Tuesday associated with the snow/wintry mix, but areas west of the Mississippi River may see LIFR ceilings develop by the late morning. Otherwise, winds will shift to a more easterly direction overnight into Tuesday, generally 10kts or less, although some gusts to 20kts are possible in northeast Iowa overnight. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Boyne AVIATION...Falkinham