Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI
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141 FXUS63 KARX 201136 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 536 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Areas of fog and drizzle to continue through this morning. - Above normal temperatures into early next week with highs generally in the upper 40s to low 50s. - Rain chances return Monday into Tuesday with potentially chilly temperatures for the Thanksgiving holiday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 301 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 Today - Tonight: Drizzle and Cool It`s a dreary morning out there with fog, drizzle, and dense low stratus blanketing much of the Upper Mississippi Valley. Southerly winds in the lower levels are allowing warmer and more moist air to seep northward, leading to deep low level saturation across the area. This doesn`t look to get knocked out until a weak cold front, currently over western Minnesota, moves through the area and shifts winds to the northwest. This will allow for a drier airmass to gradually work its way in, drying out the profile from the mid- levels down. Even though this front is expected to move through during the daytime hours, clouds won`t start to scatter out until late overnight and into tomorrow morning. As such, have gone ahead and lowered highs for today away from the NBM as the continued stratus and earlier passage of the cold front should keep temperatures in the 40s for most. Friday - The Weekend: Dry and Gradually Warming A shortwave trough is expected to eject northeast out of the Colorado Rockies but should stay south of our area Friday which looks to keep rain chances down into the Mid-Mississippi Valley. While some residual cloud cover will linger across southern portions of the area, the rest should see the return of some sunshine with nearly identical temperatures to today. The rest of the weekend should remain just as benign with weakly northwest flow aloft prevailing. Temperatures are expected to gradually warm back into the low to mid 50s by Sunday, even as another weak cold front passes through the area. Monday - Thanksgiving: Low Rain Chances Return, Cooling Mid/Late Week A cutoff low that is forecast to take shape across the Southern California/Baja Peninsula area this weekend is expected to pivot northeast through the Desert Southwest and eventually into the upper Midwest Monday into Tuesday. Around the same time, a shortwave trough is expected to drop east/southeast out of the Western Canadian Provinces and into the Northern Plains. This expected to bring a sort of one-two hit of precipitation chances with the southerly low increasing rain chances through the day on Monday and the northerly trough/low bringing continued chances into Tuesday. The cold front with this northerly low will pack a little more of a punch with high temperatures Wednesday in the 30s, roughly 10-15 degrees cooler than where they are expected to be on Tuesday. Conditions are expected to dry out Wednesday morning as a much cooler and drier airmass settles into the area thanks to a strong surface high building across the Plains. While we will remain in a generally progressive upper level pattern, conditions look to remain dry for the Thanksgiving holiday with chilly temperatures in the 20s to low 30s looking possible. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 534 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 Low level stratus and fog at 20.12Z TAF issuance continues through the morning hours, eventually lifting through the early afternoon. Low level dry air ushering in from the northwest tonight will likely lift impacts towards the end of the TAF period. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Barendse AVIATION...JAR