102
FXUS63 KARX 131131
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
531 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming temperatures through at least Friday (60-100% chance
  to reach 60 along, south of I-94) before a cold front arrives
  sometime during the day Saturday, sending temperatures back
  to around average for next week.

- Next chance of widespread precipitation may (30-50%) arrive
  Monday Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

Warmer through at least Friday

Longwave ridging builds over the central CONUS through Friday,
leading to a steady warming trend in temperatures over the next two
days. 13.01z NBM probabilities suggest highs in the 60s are likely
to certain (60-100%) for areas along and southwest of I-94 on Friday
afternoon. As this occurs, split flow regime develops and a northern
stream trough dives from northern Saskatchewan/Manitoba to Ontario,
pushing a cold front through the CWA Saturday. Exact timing of this
front remains uncertain and 13.01z NBM interquartile spread for
highs Saturday is generally around 6-7 degrees, a bit high for just
3 days out. Guidance continues to largely suggest the frontal
passage will be in the morning, leaving many locations back in the
50s for highs.

Precip potential early next week

Uncertainty remains stubbornly high for next week with regards to
potential for a southern stream wave to eject eastward near our
forecast area. While timing is starting to hone in Monday evening,
whether or not precip actually occurs in our neck of the woods
remains an open question. About 30% of members across the 13.00z
time-lagged LREF take a more northern trajectory toward the region
which would suggest a very high (80-95%) chance for precip, but this
group is largely driven by the ECENS, which has over 50% of its
members and the 13.00z operational run with this northern track.
Between 35-40% of LREF members, mainly from the GEFS, have a more
southern trajectory that would result in some or all of us missing
out on precip. Thus, have continued to focus highest PoPs on Monday
evening but generally kept these at 50% or lower. As for precip
type, good agreement that we`ll be on the northern side of the
associated surface low, so have gone with a few snow mentions in our
northeast where temperatures may be marginally supportive of snow
should precip occur.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 531 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

A shortwave trough will move through the area this morning. It
will bring with some mid-clouds during the mid to late morning
and early to mid afternoon.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Ferguson
AVIATION...Boyne