048
FXUS63 KARX 281722
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1122 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A winter storm moves through the region tonight through
  Saturday night providing a prolonged period of accumulating
  snow. Probabilities for 6+" of snow are 70-95%, highest along
  and south of I-90 with areas along and south of Highway 18 in
  northeast Iowa and far southwest Wisconsin favored to see the
  highest totals.

- Cold temperatures remain through next week with highs in the
  upper teens to mid 20s. Overnight lows fall into the single
  digits above and below zero Sunday night into Monday morning.

- Low probabilities for additional precipitation through next
  week (10-30%), likely in form of snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 413 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Winter Storm Tonight Through Saturday

A Winter Storm is expected to develop today across the central
Great Plains as lee cyclogenesis sparked by a 500hPa shortwave
trough currently situated over the Pacific Northwest propagates
eastward. A belt of warm air advection associated with this
developing low pressure system will lift northward tonight,
which combined with a band of 800-700hPa frontogenesis in the
warm air advection, is expected to initiate a prolonged period
of snowfall through Saturday.

The southern shift in the low track seen in yesterday`s model
runs has since begun to trend back northward by a couple
counties, which has increased snow amounts across the region.
Thinking this variation stems from the primary 500hPa shortwave
that is expected to drive this system finally moving onto the
west coast of the United States, allowing it to now be fully
sampled.

Probabilities remain high for 6+ inches of snow, generally
70-95% highest along and south of I-90. The 28.01z NBM remains
the most bullish with higher probabilities, upwards of 50-80%
for 12+ inches, as compared to the 28.00z LREF indicating 20-50%
probabilities. However, these higher amounts seem plausible
as 900-700hPa frontogenesis is depicted over areas south of
I-90 Saturday afternoon which would bump up snowfall rates and
subsequent amounts. As such, the highest snowfall rates,
upwards of 1 inch per hour in the 28.00z HREF, and greatest
period of impacts are expected during this time frame and the
highest snowfall totals are favored over northeast Iowa into far
southwest Wisconsin. Snowfall tapers off from west to east
Saturday night into Sunday morning as the upper level trough and
associated surface low shift eastward.

Cold Temperatures Through Next Week

Cold temperatures remain in place behind this weekend`s winter
storm, struggling to climb above freezing through next week.
Sunday night will be the coldest, with lows in the single
digits. Temperatures warm slightly Wednesday, into the upper
20s under southerly flow and warm air advection, but quickly
cool down again Thursday. Some uncertainty remains regarding how
the snowpack developing this weekend will influence
temperatures, but confidence is high that they stay cold over
the next several days.

Precipitation Potential Next Week

An active upper level pattern is expected through next week in
the wake of this weekend`s winter storm. Several waves propagate
eastward across the United States through the week, promoting
various periods of cyclogenesis and potential for precipitation.
Quite a bit of variation exists amongst the ensembles through
the week, so it`s difficult to glean much for details at this
time.

However, the next timeframe favored for precipitation potential
across our area after this weekend comes Monday night into
Tuesday morning. As previously mentioned, there`s quite a bit of
discrepancy amongst the ensembles, in this case regarding the
track of a low pressure system developing across the central
Great Plains. The majority of the 28.00z LREF clusters favor a
southern track to this low, similar to the EPS solution, which
would keep much, if not all of our area dry. Roughly 25% of the
membership does suggest a more northward track though, towards
the GEFS solution, which would bring higher probabilities of
precipitation into our area. As such, precipitation
probabilities sit around 10-30% during this time and with below
freezing thermal profiles, snow would be the favored
precipitation type.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1119 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

VFR to MVFR conditions currently present across the region with
light northwesterly winds at less than 10 kts. The main point of
contention for this TAF package will be the onset of snow as a
winter storm moves into the area this evening and into the overnight
hours. Snow will begin to move into the area after 00Z with MVFR/IFR
CIGs expected to move in around and after 06Z. CIGs and visibilities
will likely be in the low end MVFR/IFR category for much of the
event with some LIFR CIGs possible across SE Minnesota tomorrow
morning. Snow will continue beyond the end of this current package,
likely coming to an end through the early morning hours Sunday.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to 6 AM CST Sunday
     for WIZ053>055-061.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to 6 AM CST Sunday
     for WIZ017-029.
     Winter Storm Warning from 3 AM Saturday to 6 AM CST Sunday for
     WIZ032>034-041>044.
MN...Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to 6 AM CST Sunday
     for MNZ079-086>088-094>096.
IA...Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to 6 AM CST Sunday
     for IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Falkinham
AVIATION...Barendse