949
FXUS63 KARX 111732
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1132 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy Wednesday, but potential for impacts remains very low
  (5%).

- Warming through the week with Saturday the warmest (5-35%
  chance for 70+ degree highs along/south of I-90).

- Rain may return Saturday into Monday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Breezy Wednesday, impacts highly unlikely

Wednesday, 45/55 knot 850/700mb jet per 11.00z GFS sets up over the
CWA within a belt of northwesterly flow aloft, bringing potential
for breezy conditions at the surface. Relatively weak CAA aloft and
a shallow boundary layer look to minimize the strongest winds from
reaching the surface with 11.00z NBM in line with this thinking,
having a less than 5% chance for a 45 mph gust occurring sometime
Wednesday. While 11.00z HREF suggests a 15% chance for a gust of
this strength in central WI, this is influenced by the ARW solution,
which true to form has notably stronger gusts compared to other
guidance. Therefore, while have continued to lean winds upward
toward the strong side of NBM and other consensus blends, continue
to think needing a Wind Advisory down the road is highly unlikely.

Warming through Saturday

Longwave ridging will build across much of the CONUS through
Saturday helping temperatures recover from the recent outbreak of
cold conditions. With heights aloft over the CWA reaching their
zenith Saturday morning, temperatures will steadily increase each
afternoon through Saturday. While probabilities have reduced
slightly, 11.01z NBM has a 5-35% chance for temperatures to reach or
exceed 70 degrees along and south of I-90 Saturday while, for all
areas along and south of I-94, reaching the 60s appears likely (60-
95%). With upper troughing and an associated surface cold front
returning to the Great Lakes and an upper low favored to eject from
the Four Corners to the central Plains, heights aloft and
temperatures look to trend cooler for Sunday into Monday.

Rain potential this weekend

Aforementioned upper trough and cold front may bring showers to the
region Saturday night into Sunday before additional precip may occur
ahead of the approaching Four Corners upper low. Given split flow
regime, uncertainty is moderate to high on timing and potential
intensity within this time period, but most guidance favors strong
low level moisture advection failing to reach the region before the
front sweeps through Saturday night into Sunday. In any case, have
stuck with blended guidance through this period until more
confidence is gained on a particular outcome.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1130 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

A band of low VFR/high MVFR ceilings over northern MN/
northwestern WI drops southeastward this afternoon and evening.
While MVFR ceilings are anticipated north of an EAU to ISW
line, there is a 10-20% chance that these ceilings could sneak
as far south as LSE this evening. VFR conditions are expected
for the remainder of the TAF period and into Thursday. Winds
veer to the northwest this afternoon, gusting to 20-25 kts.
Winds remain around 10-15 kts with similar gusts increasing
during the day on Wednesday.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Ferguson
AVIATION...Skow