152
FXUS63 KARX 212356
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
556 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry through Sunday night with above-normal temperatures.

- Rain chances from Monday afternoon through Tuesday...and then
  a gradual transition to rain and snow on Tuesday night...and
  snow Wednesday.

- Much colder on Thanksgiving with wind chills as low as the
  single digits.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1234 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Weekend

A weak cold front will move southeast through the area on
Saturday afternoon and evening. With the soundings showing very
little moisture with this system, kept the forecast dry. With
the air mass in the wake of this system being of Pacific origin,
there will be little temperature difference. High temperatures
will range from the mid-40 to around 50 along and north of
Interstate 94, and in the lower and mid-50s elsewhere for both
days.

Monday through Wednesday

A shortwave trough will eject out of the southwest US and then
move northeast through the Upper Mississippi River Valley and
Great Lakes. There are 2 general camps on how this will occur.
The first is that it will be rather progressive and move quickly
northeast through the area. This currently comprises of 78% of
the Grand Ensemble members. The second camp has this wave
phasing with the northern stream. This results in a much
stronger system (including a closed 500 mb and surface low) and
deformation band of precipitation. This cluster comprises mainly
of GEFS members and a total of 22% of the Grand Ensemble.

Thanksgiving

All of members are in general agreement that the area will be
seeing cold air advection in the wake of the ejecting shortwave
trough. Less than a quarter (22%) of the Grand Ensemble has some
lingering light snow showers over the area. High temperatures
will range from the mid-20s to mid-30s. Low temperatures on
Thanksgiving morning will range from the mid-teens to lower 20s
with wind chills in the single digits.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 556 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

The primary aviation forecast challenge over the next 24hrs
remains the potential for valley fog at KLSE overnight into
Saturday morning. Confidence remains low in this scenario as
there`s still uncertainty regarding how clear skies will be
overnight. If skies are sufficiently clear, fog will likely
begin to develop given light and variable low level winds.
However, if fog does develop, it`s not expected to last long
past 11z-12z as an increased southwesterly low level wind field
moves into the region. Have opted not to include fog mentions
into the KLSE TAF, but remains something to keep a close eye on
overnight.

Apart from the potential valley fog, VFR conditions are
expected through the TAF period. Winds will be light and
variable overnight, becoming southwesterly on Saturday. The
aforementioned increased low level wind field should lead to
surface gusts of 15-25kts through the day Saturday, strongest
west of the Mississippi River.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Boyne
AVIATION...Falkinham