914
FXUS63 KARX 091905
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
105 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered snow showers ending early this evening. Trending dry for
the new work week with rain chances moving in for the weekend.

- Another relatively cold day Monday with highs not warming above
40. Moderating temps by mid week with 60+ degree highs expected for
Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 105 PM AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

- OVERVIEW: upper level trough, playing a role in the scattered snow
showers/flurries this afternoon, will continue to dig southward this
evening. The system gets a kick east Monday as an upper level ridge
starts to bend east from the plains, stretching over the upper
mississippi river valley. A few ripples in the flow are progged to
slide across the ridge and through the area. Consistent signal in
the long range guidance. Questionable if this results in any light
pcpn chances.

Moving into the second half of the week an amplifying ridge over the
west coast pushes east across the northern plains with the axis
shifting over the local area Friday. This is "quicker" compared to
previous days EPS/GEFS runs - and clearly evidenced in WPC clusters.
Not a "one off" trend as a day-to-day comparison of the guidance
shows this.

The ridge quickly exits east Sat as a trough barrels in from the
west. Some northern and southern bits of energy could coalesce - or
could stay separate. GEFS and EPS suggest both are possible. While
the details aren`t clear, either of those solutions would bring a
shot for precipitation Sat and/or Sun.

The GEFS and EPS get more "messy" moving into next week, but suggest
progressive flow with disagreements on whether ridges/shortwaves
would be lower or higher amplitude in nature. Lower confidence,
lower predictability in this time frame.


- TEMPERATURES: Monday promises another unseasonably cold day as the
cold Canadian air that flowed in this morning hangs around for
another day. All GEFS and EPS members want to keep highs in the 30s,
a very consistent signal. Not as blustery as today so wind chills
won`t be adding as much bite to the air.

After Monday, increasing heights will result in an uptick in temps
and a return to the seasonable normals for mid week.

Even warmer as the more amplified ridge works overhead for Fri and
Sat. The upper 10% of the National Blend paints lower 70s for highs
from I-90 southward Sat. The very bottom 5% - the coldest the model
blend thinks it could be - is right on the seasonable norms. This
warmth has been a consistent signal in the EPS and GEFS over the
past several days with the GEFS a tad warmer than the EPS.
Forecasting upwards of a 40 degree swing between highs today and
those for Sat.

If current favored upper level flow holds, cooler air returns for
Sunday with the trough - but highs still trending to be at/above
normal. The progressive upper level flow for next week also
suggesting much of the same.


- PRECIPITATION CHANCES: scattered snow showers and/or flurries
(more favored over WI) will diminish after sundown and the loss of
daytime heating.

An upper level ridge starts to bend over the region from the plains
for Mon and Tue but GEFS/EPS/NAM have been consistent on spinning a
few weak perturbations across the ridge top, slipping them across
the upper mississippi river valley. Some QG convergence through the
depth of the atmosphere along with a ribbon of Fgen along an
accompanying sfc boundary provide additional lift. However, moisture
is sparse. Bufkit soundings and time/height x-sections show only
mid/upper level saturation with a fairly deep and rather robust dry
layer under it. So much drying that precipitation would have an
difficult time making it to the sfc before evaporating. While the
majority of the EPS and GEFS suggest some light QPF is possible,
given the lack of saturation, will side with the NBM and keep this
period dry for now.

The building ridge should shuffle any other shortwave activity north
of the area for the rest of the work week - keeping it dry.

Moving into the weekend a trough is slated to push in from the west
Sat/Sun. Uncertainty on whether northern, southern pieces of upper
level energy will merge, but setup would still bring some
precipitation to the region. Temps would keep ptype as rain. Will
let the model blend provide the details.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1139 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Snow showers with accompanying MVFR cigs will be the primary
aviation concern this afternoon as a low-level bkn deck moves into
the region. Some more robust low-level instability will allow for
snow showers to develop which in combination with gusty winds to
around 20-25 kts will allow for some visibility reductions to IFR
levels in more vigorous snow showers. As we head towards sunset,
both weak low-level instability and diurnal mixing will begin to
wane so would expect wind gusts and shower activity to gradually
diminish throughout the evening. Ceilings will gradually improve as
low-level saturation wanes with cigs returning to VFR levels during
the evening.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rieck
AVIATION.....Naylor