750
FXUS63 KARX 132340
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
540 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming temperatures still on track with 60s through Friday
  across most of the area and in the southeast on Saturday. A
  cold front then sweeps through Saturday morning, dropping
  temperatures back closer to average Sunday into Monday.

- Next chance of widespread precipitation (30-50%) looks to
  arrive late Monday into Tuesday morning. Some precip type
  issues may be at hand Monday night into early Tuesday in the
  north.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

Tonight...Stubborn warm air advection (WAA) AC deck draped acrs
the area for most of the day should continue to erode and slide
off to the east and southeast this evening as upstream upper
ridge shunts its way eastward acrs the upper MS RVR Valley for a
mainly clear night. This clearing and dry sfc DPTs will battle
an ongoing light south to southeast sfc wind behind an exiting
lobe of high pressure for overnight low temps. Will take a 50%
percentile of the blend for lows making for low to mid 30s,
with some upper 20s possible in the normal cool air drainage
locations.

Friday...Digging upper trof out of south central Canada and
into the northern plains will develop a sfc reflection low
pressure and frontal system that will look to sweep into the
western GRT LKS by Sat morning, looking at the latest ensemble
timing of the features. This timing and handling will place the
local CWA in the full warm sector through Friday evening with a
strengthening south to southwesterly sfc wind ahead of the
incoming front. Mixing depth may be limited by a building warm
wedge inversion aloft, but even marginal mixing reach supports
widespread mid 60s, with a few upper 60s to nears 70 acrs
northeast IA into far southwest WI. Ensemble timing of the main
cool front has it moving east-southeast acrs the heart of the
CWA just after 12z Saturday. Ongoing WAA and some likely mid
and high clouds to keep low temps a very mild range for the
season, values well up in the 40s Friday night. Despite good
forcing, meager moisture availability supports low chances of a
few light sprinkles or showers post-frontally edging toward the
northwestern CWA by daybreak Sat. For now will hold off any
mentionable POPs into Sat morning.

Continuing with the FROPA through the CWA Saturday morning, much of
the day to translate into blustery west to northwesterly sfc winds
and post-frontal mix out in the 50s, with some lower 60s in the
southeast/southwest WI. Again some chance for post-frontal
light showers or sprinkles to get wrung out behind the front
under the upper trof mainly acrs the northeast half of the fcst
area mainly Sat morning. But with the system encountering such
dry air in place or lack of moisture feed, will not add
mentionable POPs for now. Post-frontal high pressure arrives for
a dry and cooler Sunday back close to normal with a lot of mid
40s.

Uncertainty remains in handling of the next wave ejecting out of
the west and trying to undercut the ridge acrs the mid to upper MS
RVR Valley later mOnday and Monday night, but ensemble trends
continue to shunt or block the brunt of its forcing and def zone
precip to the southwest and south of most of the CWA into Tue
morning. Wherever this system eventually tracks, the northern
edge of of the precip shield and in-wrapping cold conveyor may
eventually lead to some wintry type precip decisions to make in
the fcst. If these trends continue, the current fcst POPs will
be well too far north and most of the area could remain dry and
cool in a type of split flow regime through mid next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 539 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

VFR conditions continue through the TAF period with sky
conditions of SKC-FEW expected overnight as the mid-level cloud
deck over central Wisconsin continues east-southeastward. Under
these clear to mostly clear skies, there is some potential for
patchy fog to develop Friday morning for portions of northeast
Iowa into southeast Minnesota, although probabilities of this
are low, generally 10-20% in the 13.19z NBM. Otherwise,
southerly winds persist through the next 24 hours, light
overnight but should begin to gust west of the Mississippi River
Friday afternoon, generally 15-20kts, ahead of an approaching
cold front.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DVN
AVIATION...Falkinham