256
AXNT20 KNHC 061727
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Mon Oct 6 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
A broad area of low pressure, analyzed as a 1010 mb low near
09N36.5W, is associated with a low-latitude tropical wave along
36.5W, and continues to produce a large area of disorganized
cloudiness and showers, from 05N to 14N between 32W and 40W. Peak
winds to 25 kt and seas to 8 ft are found within 180 nm north of
the low. Visible satellite images indicate that the area of low
pressure located over the tropical central Atlantic is gradually
becoming better organized. Environmental conditions appear
generally conducive for slow development of this system, and a
tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of
days while it moves quickly west-northwestward across the central
tropical Atlantic. This system is expected to be near or north of
the northern Leeward Islands on Thursday and Friday, and interests
there should monitor its progress.

Please read the latest TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 48W from 21N southward, moving west at
10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is occurring near this
wave.

Another tropical wave is over the Lesser Antilles with axis along
62W, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are seen from 15N to 19N between 60W and 64W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 14N16W and
continues southwestward to a 1010 mb low pressure located near
09N37W (AL95). The ITCZ extends from 09N37W to 09N46W where it is
broken by a tropical wave, with the ITCZ then resuming at 09N49W
and continuing to 10N59W. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring from 03N to 12N between 10W and 25W, and from 04N to
11N between 40W and 58W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front runs along much of the northern Gulf coast,
with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near the frontal
boundary. A surface trough in the SW Gulf and Bay of Campeche is
also leading to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near
the trough axis. Gentle to moderate E to NE winds persist north of
the front. Winds across the remainder of the basin are gentle or
weaker, with seas of 2-5 ft prevailing across the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure across the eastern U.S. will
build modestly across the Gulf basin late today throughout the
week. Moderate E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas will
prevail through late Tue, becoming moderate NE to E through the
remainder of the week. Occasional locally fresh winds are expected
in the northeastern Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information on
the medium range forecast for Invest AL95.

A surface trough paralleling the coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula
and Belize is aiding in the development of scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection across much of the far western
Caribbean W of 81W. Outside of convection, winds across much of
the Caribbean are from the east at gentle to moderate speeds, with
the exception of offshore Colombia where moderate to fresh trades
persist. Seas are generally 2-5 ft across the basin, except in the
Gulf of Honduras where convection is driving seas of 4-7 ft, and
the northern Caribbean Passages where N to NE swell is leading to
seas of 4-8 ft.

For the forecast, rough seas in large N to NE swell over the
tropical Atlantic waters and through the Caribbean Passages will
gradually subside through Tue. Elsewhere, moderate trade winds
will persist across the south-central Caribbean. Moderate E to SE
winds will pulse fresh to locally strong in the northwestern
Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras, each night through the
middle of the week. Showers and thunderstorms will remain active
across the northwestern Caribbean through Tue night. A broad area
of low pressure associated with a low-latitude tropical wave
continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms over the tropical central Atlantic. Environmental
conditions appear generally conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form within
the next few days while it moves quickly west- northwestward
across the central tropical Atlantic, approaching the northern
Leeward Islands by the latter part of the week. Regardless of
development, expect an increase in winds and seas across the
tropical Atlantic waters with this system by the end of the week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more details on
Invest AL95.

A stationary front enters the forecast region near 31N40W and
extends west-southwestward to near 23N69W and then west-
northwestward to a 1013 mb low near 26N80W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is seen along and generally north of
the front, and also across much of the Bahamas. Fresh to strong E
to NE winds and rough seas are analyzed north of the front. A
surface trough is analyzed NE of the Lesser Antilles from 15N60W
to near 21N55W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 13N to
20N between 53W and 60W. Scattered moderate convection is also
seen off the coast of west Africa from 04N to 10N and E of 17W.

Elsewhere, a 1023 mb high near 35N20W extends a ridge
southwestward into the Atlantic, with the associated pressure
gradient between this ridge and lower pressures both in the
tropics and over Africa resulting in fresh to strong NE winds from
16N to 28N and E of 22W. Seas are 7-9 ft in this region. Much of
the remaining tropical Atlantic is seeing moderate to fresh trades
and seas of 6-9 ft prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas in large N to NE swell
across the regional waters will gradually subside from north to
south over the central Atlantic through Tue night. Fresh to strong
NE to E winds will prevail north of a stationary front, extending
from the central Atlantic near 28N55W through the NW Bahamas and
to the SE Florida coast, through late Tue. Winds will diminish
midweek as the front drifts northward and dissipates. A broad area
of low pressure associated with a low-latitude tropical wave
continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms over the tropical central Atlantic. Environmental
conditions appear generally conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form within
the next few days while it moves quickly west-northwestward across
the central tropical Atlantic, approaching the northern Leeward
Islands by the latter part of the week. Regardless of development,
expect an increase in winds and seas over the SE waters with this
system by the end of the week.

$$
Adams