171
AXNT20 KNHC 040325
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Thu Dec 4 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0320 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N13W to 05N20W. The ITCZ extends
from 05N20W to 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N
to 08N between 30W and 40W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

1011 mb low pressure is developing off the central coast of Texas.
A warm front extends from the low to 26N85W then is stationary to
Florida Bay. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active north
of the front over the northwest Gulf west of 90W. Moderate to
fresh SW to S winds are noted over the northwest Gulf near the low
pressure, with 3 to 5 ft seas. Gentle breezes and 2 to 4 ft seas
are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh southerly winds over
the western Gulf will spread eastward tonight into Thu. Then,
another cold front will enter the NW waters on Thu, and extend
from SE Louisiana to near Tampico, Mexico Fri morning, then stall
and also lift north toward the northern Gulf on Sat. Looking
ahead, a stronger cold front is likely to sweep across the Gulf
region late Sun into Mon, bringing fresh to strong NW to N winds
over much of the basin. This front is forecast to move SE of the
area late on Mon or Mon night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A few showers and thunderstorms are noted near a surface over the
Leeward Islands. Generally fair conditions persist elsewhere.
Fresh NE winds persist across the Windward Passage, south of Cuba,
and off the central coast of Colombia. Seas are 4 to 6 ft except
for 1 to 3 ft seas in the northwest Caribbean.

For the forecast, building high pressure north of the Caribbean
Sea will support moderate to fresh easterly winds over much of the
basin through early next week. Locally strong NE winds may pulse
at night off NW Colombia tonight and Thu night. Meanwhile, locally
rough seas, in NE swell, will persist across the NE Caribbean
passages into early next week. Looking ahead, a cold front may
approach the NW Caribbean early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A slow moving cold front extends from Bermuda to near Miami,
Florida. A pre- frontal trough is noted from 31N64W to the central
Bahamas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted ahead of
the front, north of 25N between 57W and 63W. A surface trough is
south of 22N along 62W southward to the Leeward Islands. The
remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by 1031 mb high pressure
centered south of the Azores near 35N26W. The axis of a surface
ridge extends from this high pressure toward 25N60W. Gentle
breezes and 4 to 6 ft in easterly swell west of 60W, except for
fresh winds near the northern end of the Windward Passage. Fresh
to strong E trade winds are noted over the deep tropics south of
15N between 35W and 60W, with 8 to 10 ft seas. Moderate to fresh E
to SE winds and 8 to 10 ft are noted elsewhere south of the ridge
axis. Gentle SE to S breezes and 5 to 7 ft in N to NE swell along
the ridge axis.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front will extend from 31N67W to central Cuba by Thu
morning, and from 31N55W to eastern Cuba by Fri morning while
dissipating. High pressure will follow the front. Then, a ridge
will dominate most of the forecast area through the end of the
week. The next cold front is expected to clip the waters offshore
of NE Florida late Fri into Sat, resulting in fresh to strong
southerly winds and moderate to locally rough seas N of 28N and east
of 70W. Conditions will improve Sun, but a stronger cold front
reaching the same area on Mon.

$$
Christensen