943
AXNT20 KNHC 180431
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Jun 18 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Potential Tropical Cyclone One (PTC One). Potential Tropical
Cyclone One is near 20.8N 93.0W at 11 PM EDT, and is moving
north-at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to
45 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 999 mb. The
disturbance is quite large with tropical-storm-force winds
extending outward up to 252 nm to the northeast of the center.
Seas are peaking near 12 ft near the center. Numerous moderate
to scattered strong convection is observed west of 77W in the
Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. Heavy rains are also impacting
portions of southern Mexico, Central America, western Cuba,
Cayman Islands and Jamaica. A turn toward the west-northwest is
expected Tuesday night or Wednesday, and the system is likely to
approach the western Gulf coast late Wednesday.

Rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One will
impact large regions of Central America, northeastern Mexico
and South Texas. This rainfall will likely produce considerable
flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river
flooding. Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher terrain
across Central America into northeast Mexico.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
and the latest Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 30.5W, south of 16N,
moving westward at 10-15 knots. No deep convection is noted near
the trough axis.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 65W, south of 17N,
moving westward at 10-15 knots. No deep convection is noted near
the trough axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N17W, then continues southwestward to
06N40W. The ITCZ extends from 06N40W to 07N54W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 04N to
10N and east of 26W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is evident from 03N to 07N and between 37W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on
Potential Tropical Cyclone One and its impacts.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One covers most of the Gulf of Mexico,
producing numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms except in
the NE Gulf and west of 94W. The strongest convection is seen in
the Bay of Campeche. The pressure gradient between PTC One and
the ridge in the NW Atlantic is supporting strong to minimal
gale force E winds west of 86W, including the Yucatan Channel.
East of 86W E winds are fresh. Seas are 8-12 ft west of 86W and
5-8 east of 86W. While the highest seas across the waters from
22N-26N between 86W and 91W.

For the forecast, Potential Tropical Cyclone One is near 20.8N
93.0W at 11 PM EDT, and is moving north at 6 kt. Maximum
sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum
central pressure is 999 mb. One will move to 21.6N 92.8W Tue
morning, 22.6N 93.6W Tue evening, 23.2N 95.3W Wed morning, 23.5N
96.9W Wed evening, then inland to 23.7N 98.1W Thu morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on
Potential Tropical Cyclone One and its impacts.

The broad nature of Potential Tropical Cyclone One results in
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the central
and NW Caribbean Sea. Similar convection is also impacting
Hispaniola. Drier conditions are noted elsewhere in the basin.
The pressure gradient between PTC One and a 1027 mb high
pressure system in the NW Atlantic sustains fresh to locally
near gale-force SE winds in the NW Caribbean, especially west of
83W. Stronger gusts are possible with the strongest convection.
Seas in these waters are 7-10 ft. Fresh to locally strong
easterly winds and seas of 3-6 ft are noted in the south-central
Caribbean. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas
prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, a broad circulation around Potential Tropical
Cyclone One will support fresh to near gale- force SE winds with
scattered showers and thunderstorms across the NW Caribbean
through at least Wed night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trades
over the central and E Caribbean will reach moderate to fresh
speeds by midweek and prevail through late Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 31N53W toward the Dominican
Republic. A weak 1013 mb low is analyzed along the trough axis
near 24N64W. Scattered showers and thunderstorm are active
along, and ahead this trough. Moderate to fresh NE winds and 5-7
ft seas are noted west of the trough, with moderate or weaker
breezes and 3-5 ft seas elsewhere west of 55W. The remainder of
the Atlantic discussion area is dominated by strong ridge north
of the Azores. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower
pressures in NW Africa sustain fresh to strong northerly winds
and seas of 6-9 ft from 18N to 24N and east of 21W. Elsewhere in
the basin, gentle to moderate winds and seas in the 4-6 ft range
prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms persist in the vicinity of a surface trough
extending from 31N55W to low pres near 24N64W to 21N69W.
Environmental conditions could be conducive for some development
of the low during the next few days while it moves westward or
west- northwestward. The system is forecast to approach the
coast of the southeast United States by the end of the week.
Regardless of development, fresh to strong winds and rough seas
will prevail across the waters N of 25N through Thu.

$$
KRV