212
AXNT20 KNHC 070605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sun Dec 07 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A somewhat strong cold front is
forecast to move across the Gulf during the upcoming week,
followed by fresh to strong northwest to north winds and building
seas. Gale-force northwest to north winds are expected off
Veracruz Mon evening along with seas peaking to around 11 ft (3.5
m). Winds and seas will diminish Tue into Wed as the front becomes
stationary from the Straits of Florida to the Yucatan Channel
while high pressure settles across the central Gulf.

Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic off the coast of Africa
near 10N14W, and continues southwestward to 05N18W and to 05N23W,
where it transitions to the ITCZ to 05N30W to 03N28W, and
northwestward from there to 05N45W and to near 08N54W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 03N to 07N
between 14W-22W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm
north of the ITCZ between 31W-34W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on
upcoming gale conditions expected off Veracruz, Mexico.

A weak cold front extends across central Florida to offshore the
coast near Clearwater Beach and continues to 27N87W and to a weak
1011 mb low near 26N94W. A stationary front extends from the low
to 22N94W, where it begins to dissipate to near 19N95W. Light to
gentle winds are over most of the basin, except for northeast
winds of gentle to moderate north of the boundary over the north-
central and NE Gulf sections. Seas are in the range of 2 to 4 ft
across the area. Satellite imagery shows broken to overcast mostly
low clouds, with embedded patches of light to moderate along and
to the north of the frontal boundary. Small patches of fog may be
present underneath this cloudiness.

For the forecast, little change in winds and seas are expected
today as the front weakens further and drifts back to the north.
A new and somewhat stronger cold front is expected to enter the NW
Gulf Sun evening and overtake the current front, while sweeping
across the basin into early next week. This will lead to fresh to
strong northwest to north winds and building seas in the wake of
the front. Gale-force northwest to north winds are expected off
Veracruz Mon evening. Winds and seas will diminish Tue into Wed as
the front stalls across the Yucatan Channel and Straits of
Florida, and high pressure settles across the central Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is analyzed over the western Caribbean roughly
along 84W south of 18.5N to inland Honduras and Nicaragua. Gentle
to moderate trade winds are near the trough. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are seen within 180 nm west of the trough from 16N
to 18.5N while isolated showers and thunderstorms are within 60 nm
east of the trough from 16N to 18.5N. An area of scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms is east of Nicaragua roughly from 10N
to 14N between 79W and 82W. This activity remains under the
western periphery of a broad mid to upper-level ridge. Elsewhere
across the basin, atmospheric moisture remains quite limited with
the broad ridge aloft maintaining rather stable conditions, and
only allowing for small patches of moisture that may be accompanied
by isolated showers.

The pressure gradient between high pressure located north of the
basin and the Colombian low supports moderate to fresh trade winds
over the east and central Caribbean while gentle to moderate
winds are over the remainder of the western Caribbean. Seas of 5
to 8 ft in an east swell are east of 80W, and seas of 3 to 5 ft
are west of 80W, except for slightly lowers seas of 2 to 4 ft
north 18N west of 85W.

For the forecast, a moderate pressure gradient between a weak
Atlantic ridge along 26N, north of the Greater Antilles, and lower
pressures in northern South America will sustain moderate to
fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas over the central and
eastern Caribbean through the middle of the upcoming week. Strong
winds will pulse off NW Colombia tonight, along with locally
rough seas. Moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas
will prevail elsewhere. A persistent northeast to east swell will
support rough seas across the Atlantic waters and passages of the
Lesser Antilles through next Thu. Looking ahead, a weakening cold
front will approach the northwestern Caribbean on Tue, and linger
across the Yucatan Channel and Straits of Florida through Wed.
High pressure will build across the eastern Gulf of America by the
middle of the upcoming week, leading to strong winds and rough
seas in the south-central Caribbean late into the upcoming week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is analyzed from near 31N75W southwestward to inland
central Florida near Cocoa Beach. Fresh to locally strong
southwest to west winds are ahead of the front to near 54W and
north of 29N as indicated by recent scatterometer satellite data
passes. The scatterometer satellite data passes also indicate
fresh to strong northwest to north winds behind the front. Both
recent altimeter satellite data passes and buoy observations
reveal seas of 5 to 7 ft behind the front, and seas of 7 to 10 ft
in west to northwest swell north of about 27N between 30W and
60W. To the east of the front, a frontal trough extends from near
31N36W southwestward to 28N48W and to near 25N58W. Satellite
imagery shows scattered to broken high cirrus clouds streaming
east-southeastward across the trough, with scattered to locally
broken low clouds underneath. Isolated small showers and
thunderstorms are seen north of 29N between 34W and 47W. Latest
scatterometer satellite data passes depict gentle to moderate
southwest winds east of the trough to near 28N and north of 27N.
The remainder of the Atlantic basin remains under the influence
of a ridge that is anchored by a 1024 mb high center present
just to the north of the Madeira Islands. Moderate to fresh trade
winds and moderate to rough seas dominate the tropical Atlantic.
Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere.
Overcast to broken mostly mid and high-level clouds are being
steered northeastward by a robust jet stream branch over the far
eastern Atlantic southeast of a line from 20N16W to 13N34W,
southward over the ITCZ region and to near 05N. These clouds are
advecting to well inland West Africa.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front along
with its associated wind and sea conditions will shift eastward
today. The front will extend from near Bermuda to central Florida
by early Sun morning, then dissipate Sun afternoon. A complex low
pressure system and strong cold front will move into the northwestern
tropical Atlantic tonight through Mon, supporting widespread
fresh to near gale-force winds and building seas ahead of and
behind the front Mon through Tue. The cold front will reach from
near Bermuda to the NW Bahamas and Straits of Florida Tue morning,
then gradually weaken and stall along about 26N early Wed. Large
north swell will propagate through the regional waters Tue through
Wed and diminish Wed night.

$$
Aguirre