811
AXNT20 KNHC 052336
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sat Dec 6 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N13W to 06N22W. The ITCZ
continues from 06N22W to 09N56W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is observed south of 13N between 11W and 36W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle near 30N85W to
25N93.5W, where it becomes stationary and continues through the
Bay of Campeche to 19N96W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
occurring in the northern Gulf behind the front, north of 27N.
Mainly moderate N to NE winds and 4 to 7 ft seas are noted north
and west of the front, with locally fresh NW winds and seas to 8
ft occurring offshore of Veracruz. Mainly moderate SE to SW winds
and 2 to 3 ft seas are noted over the remainder of the basin ahead
of the front.

For the forecast, winds and seas will diminish behind the
aforementioned cold front this evening and tonight. Mainly
moderate or weaker winds are then expected over the basin into
Sun. Looking ahead, a new cold front is expected to enter the
northwestern Gulf Sun evening and sweep over the basin into early
next week, leading to fresh to strong N to NW winds and building
seas in the wake of the front. Gale-force NW-N winds may develop
off Veracruz Mon afternoon and evening. Winds and seas will
diminish Tue into Wed as the front stalls across the NW Caribbean
and W Cuba.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea supports fresh trades in
the central and eastern Caribbean, along with 5-7 ft seas.
Moderate to locally fresh E to NE winds and 2-5 ft seas prevail
across western portions of the Caribbean. Rough seas of 8-10 ft
in E swell are occurring east of the Lesser Antilles and through
the Atlantic Passages. A weak upper level trough and pockets of
enhanced moisture in the central Caribbean are also leading to
scattered moderate convection occurring in a region from 14N to
17N between 75W and 82W.

For the forecast, a moderate pressure gradient between weak high
pressure centered north of the Greater Antilles and lower
pressures in northern South America will sustain moderate to fresh
E trade winds and moderate seas over the central and eastern
Caribbean through the middle of next week. Moderate or lighter
winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. A
persistent E-NE swell will support rough seas in the Atlantic
passages of the Lesser Antilles through the forecast period.
Looking ahead, a weakening cold front may approach the
northwestern Caribbean on Tue and linger across the area through
Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is analyzed from 31N51W to near 23N67W.
Scattered moderate convection is seen along the trough axis from
26N56W northeastward. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds and 6-9
ft seas are noted ahead of this feature generally N of 28N and W
of 45W. Another trough follows and extends from 31N54W to near
23N73W. A shift from gentle S winds south of this trough to
moderate to locally fresh N winds north of the trough is noted.
To the west, a 1018 mb low near 29N67W extends another frontal
remnant trough southwestward through the Bahamas and Florida
Straits. No significant convection or wind shifts are observed
with this feature. Off the east coast of FL and north of the
Bahamas, a strengthening 1011 mb low is driving moderate to fresh
S to SW winds ahead of a cold front pushing off the southeast
coast of the United States.

In the east Atlantic, an upper level low over the Canary Islands
embedded within a broad upper level trough is leading to the
development of scattered showers near the islands. Farther south,
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring east
of 36W. Outside of convection, a surface ridging pattern is
prevalent across the Atlantic, resulting in moderate to fresh
trades and 6-9 ft seas across much of the basin S of 20N, as well
as areas N of 20N and E of 35W. Moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas prevail across much of the remainder of the
Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, a frontal trough extending from S
of Bermuda to east of the Bahamas is expected to move eastward
across the central Atlantic through Sat, leading to fresh winds
and rough seas north of 27N and east of 65W through tonight.
Meanwhile, fresh to locally strong SW winds and moderate seas
prevail off NE Florida ahead of the next cold front that will
enter the area tonight. These winds and seas will push quickly
eastward Sat into Sat night. The front will extend from near
Bermuda to central Florida by early Sun morning and dissipate Sun
evening. Looking ahead, a complex low pressure system and strong
cold front will move through the northwestern tropical Atlantic by
early next week, supporting widespread fresh to strong winds and
building seas ahead of and behind the front Mon through Tue.

$$
ADAMS