787
AXNT20 KNHC 081042
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon Dec 08 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front that moved
into western portion of the Gulf last night presently extends
along a position from near Mobile, Alabama southwestward to
28N92W and to NE Mexico. The front will sweep across the rest
of the basin through Tue, perhaps stalling from near western
Cuba and the Straits of Florida by Tue evening. Fresh to strong
northwest to north winds and rough seas are expected to follow
behind the front across the western and north- central Gulf. These
winds will reach near-gale to gale-force off Veracruz this
afternoon into this evening along with seas building to around
12 ft (4 M). Afterward, winds and seas will gradually diminish
Tue into Wed as the front stalls from near western Cuba and the
Straits of Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula by Tue evening, and as
high pressure settles across the central Gulf.

Please refer to the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
southern Sierra Leone to 07N12W, and extends southwestward to
06N16W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 06N24W to 04N34W to
05N39W and to near 05N47W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is within 180 nm south of the trough between 24W-26W,
and within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 30W-34W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between
24W-28W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on
gale conditions expected offshore of Veracruz, Mexico beginning
this afternoon.

A weak cold front extends from southwest Florida to 26N86W, where
it begins to dissipate to near 25N91W. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms moving eastward are along the front E of 85W. To
the W of the front, a strong cold front is analyzed from near
near Mobile, Alabama southwestward to 28N92W and to NE Mexico.
Fresh to near gale northerly winds as seen in an overnight
scatterometer satellite data pass are behind the second cold front
across the NW Gulf. Seas are in the range of 7 to 10 ft over the
NW Gulf west of 94W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are noted in the western Gulf from 21N to 24N between 95W and 97W,
and also south of 24N between 85W and 89W. Gentle to moderate
west to northwest winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are over the east-
central Gulf. Light to gentle north to northeast winds and seas of
1 to 3 ft are over the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, the weak cold front will weaken further today
as it drifts southeastward today. The strong cold front is
expected to overtake the weak front this afternoon as it sweeps
southeastward across the basin through Tue. This will lead to
fresh to strong northwest to north winds and building seas in the
wake of this front. The fresh to near gale-force northwest to
north winds behind the front will begin to slowly diminish this
afternoon, and continue into Wed as the front stalls across the
entrance to the Yucatan Channel and Straits of Florida, and high
pressure settles across the central Gulf. Light to gentle winds
and slight seas will persist late Wed through Fri night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Atlantic ridging near 25N continues to influence the gradient
across the basin. It is presently allowing for moderate to fresh
trade winds along with seas of 5 to 7 ft are over the eastern and
central sections of the basin while light to gentle winds and seas
of 3 to 5 ft are elsewhere across the sea.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are noted west of about 75W.

For the forecast, weak ridging north of the basin near 25N will
support moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas east of
about 84W through the period, except trades will increase to fresh
to strong speeds across the central Caribbean and the eastern
part of the southwestern Caribbean starting late Tue night as high
pressure that builds over the Gulf of America leads to a
tightening of the gradient, and while at the same time a weakening
cold front approaches the northwestern Caribbean on Tue stalls
from near western Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula through Wed night
before dissipating. Moderate or lighter winds and slight to
moderate seas will prevail W of 84W. Otherwise, long- period
northeast to east swell will support rough seas across the
Atlantic waters and passages of the Lesser Antilles through Fri
night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front extends from near 31N73W to 29N78W, then
becomes a warm front to a 1012 mb low near 28N80W. Fresh to
locally strong southwest winds and moderate to rough seas are east
of the front to near 70W from 26N to 30N. Scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms are E of the front to near 72W from
27N to 31N. Overnight scatterometer satellite data generally
depicts fresh to strong southwest to west winds north of 27N
between 24W and 49W. Seas are 10 to 13 ft with these winds.
Otherwise, light to gentle winds and 7 to 9 ft are seen from 20N
to 25N. For the tropical Atlantic from 07N to 20N between 35W and
the Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh northeast to east winds
with 6 to 9 ft seas are noted. Gentle to moderate mostly southerly
winds along with seas of 5 to 7 ft are over the rest of the
basin west.

For the forecast west of 55W, the fresh to locally strong winds
and moderate to rough seas that are east of the front to will
gradually shift eastward through late Tue and expand in coverage
as a stronger cold front overtakes the weak cold front. The
southwest winds are expected to reach near gale force. The cold
front will reach from near Bermuda to the NW Bahamas and Straits
of Florida Tue afternoon, then gradually weaken and stall along
about 26N early Wed as low pressure north of the forecast waters
moves northeastward well to the northeast of the area. A weakening
cold front is expected to move across the waters north and
northeast of the Bahamas from late Wed through Fri. Otherwise,
large north swell will move into the regional waters Tue through
Wed, then subside over the SE zones Fri.

$$
Aguirre