214
AXNT20 KNHC 021651
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Tue Dec 2 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 10N15W along
the coast of Guinea and continues to 07N20W. The ITCZ extends
from 07N20W to 07N57W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong
convection is observed from 03N-13N and east of 25W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

As of 1500 UTC, a cold front extends southwestward from a 1009 mb
low over the Florida panhandle at 31N84W to just north of Veracruz
near 20N97W. A prefrontal trough extends from 26N89W to 30N83W.
Scattered showers are present within 30 NM of the front and
prefrontal trough. Winds behind the front are N fresh to strong
with the remainder of the Gulf having moderate or weaker winds.
Seas behind the front are 5-7 ft, while the remainder of the Gulf
has 2-5 ft waves.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong N winds and moderate to
locally rough seas are forecast to move southeastward farther
into the basin, but then stall over the south-central Gulf by late
Wed, as another low forms over South Texas and the NW Gulf.
Looking ahead, another cold front will enter the NW waters on Thu,
reaching from SE Louisiana to near Poza Rica, Mexico Fri morning,
then stall and lift north toward the northern Gulf on Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The trades have diminished across the basin today as a surface
trough progresses westward just north of the islands, disrupting
the influence of the subtropical ridge. Winds are moderate or
weaker with seas 2-5 ft across the Caribbean. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring south of 12N west of 78W due to the
eastern extent of the Northeast Pacific`s monsoon trough.

For the forecast, diminished winds across the basin will continue
on Wed as a surface trough progresses westward just N of the
islands, disrupting the influence of the subtropical ridge.
However, winds will freshen up again late this week as the high
pressure builds in north of the area. Meanwhile, moderate to
locally rough seas, in NE swell, will persist across the NE
Caribbean passages through the week and into the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 19N65W to 26N62W with scattered
moderate convection occurring from 21N-27N between 55W-62W. Winds
east of the trough axis are SE fresh to strong with seas 8-10 ft.
Extending farther east into the Atlantic, a moderate to strong
pressure gradient between a 1034 mb Azores High near 27N30W and
lower pressure over the ITCZ is forcing fresh to strong trades
from 10N-29N east of 55W. Seas are 8-10 ft. A complex area of low
pressure over the SE United States is help to force fresh to
strong SSW winds north of 28N west of 77W with seas 6-8 ft.
Elsewhere across the tropical and subtropical North Atlantic,
winds are moderate and seas are 4-7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, expect fresh to strong southerly
winds and building seas across the area north of 28N and west of
74W today as low pressure moves from the northern Gulf of America
to the Carolinas. The associated cold front will reach the waters
off the northeast Florida coast late today, extending from near
Bermuda to South Florida on Wed, and from 31N60W to central Cuba
by late Thu. Meanwhile, fresh to strong easterly winds and rough
seas follow a surface trough currently located near 64W. The
trough will continue to move westward, passing just N of Puerto
Rico today, and N of Hispaniola Wed and Thu. Winds and seas in the
wake of the trough will gradually diminish over the next couple
of days.

$$
Landsea