037
AXNT20 KNHC 211808
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Fri Nov 21 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N16W and continues
southwestward to 08N23W. The ITCZ extends from 08N23W to 07N40W
and to 08N60W. Scattered moderate convection is from 11N to 13N
between 19W and 23W, and from 06N to 09N between 40W and 50W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure centered over central Florida dominates the Gulf
region producing a gentle to moderate SE to S wind flow, with the
exception of light to gentle winds over the NE Gulf. Seas are in
general 3 to 5 ft, except 1 to 3 ft over the NE Gulf. Some shower
activity is noted over SE Louisiana and the N-central Gulf N of
26N. A diffluent pattern aloft supports this convective activity.

For the forecast, moderate S to SE winds will prevail over much
of the Gulf today as high pressure drifts over the northeastern
basin and the southeastern United States. Moderate to occasionally
fresh E to NE winds are expected each afternoon and evening in
the Bay of Campeche and north of the Yucatan Peninsula as a
diurnal trough develops and moves westward over the region.
Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong SE winds are expected to
develop offshore of Texas and eastern Mexico late this weekend
into next week, with locally fresh SE to SW winds expanding over
the central and eastern Gulf through midweek, as a cold front
moves over the southern U.S.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure located N of the area combined with the Colombian low
is promoting fresh to strong trade winds offshore Colombia with
moderate to rough seas. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas
are noted over the remainder of the central Caribbean. Elsewhere,
gentle to moderate trade winds are present across the basin along
with seas of 3 to 5 ft. Scattered showers, with embedded thunderstorms,
are confined to the southwestern Caribbean likely associated with
the eastern extent of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough. Low-topped
trade wind showers are seen elsewhere, with isolated thunderstorms
in the regional waters of Jamaica.

For the forecast, strong NE to E winds will pulse offshore of
northern Colombia each night and morning through the middle of
next week as low pressure prevails over the south-central Caribbean.
Rough seas are expected near and to the west of these winds.
Otherwise, high pressure centered over the western Atlantic will
support moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas over the
rest of the basin through early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the forecast area near 31N70W and continues SW
to near 29N77W. A few showers are along the frontal boundary. High
pressure dominates the remainder of the western Atlantic, with a
1021 mb high pressure located over central Florida. Moderate to
locally fresh NE winds are blowing between the Bahamas and Cuba
while light to gentle winds are observed across the remainder of
the area N of 20N W of 55W. Slight to moderate seas are within
these winds. Another cold front is over the central Atlantic and
extends from a 1013 mb low pressure located N of area near 36N51W
to 26N56W. E of the front, a surface trough is analyzed and
stretches from 31N50W to a 1015 mb low pressure situated near
22.5N55W to 19N57W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are near
these features. An upper-level trough is present in this region.
Farther E, another trough is along 28W from 20N to 30N. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are on the E side of the trough axis to
about 21W, from 24N to 29N. The pressure gradient between this
trough and high pressure of 1034 mb located NE of the Azores is
resulting in an area of fresh to strong NE to E winds N of 27N
between 25W and 35W. Rough seas are within these wind speeds.
Mainly moderate trades with moderate seas dominate the tropical
Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W,  locally fresh NE winds are expected
over the southern Bahamas and through the Windward Passage through
Sat morning as low pressure prevails in the south-central Caribbean.
Farther north, moderate to fresh W to SW winds will occur offshore
of northern Florida by Sat morning, with winds expanding farther
east into the central Atlantic through Sun morning, ahead of a cold
front pushing off the east coast of the United States. The cold
front is slated to move southeastward along the Florida Peninsula
and into the northwestern waters this weekend into early next week,
with moderate to fresh N to NE winds and building seas expected in
the wake of the front. Looking ahead, widespread moderate to fresh
trade winds will occur over much of the western Atlantic by midweek
as high pressure builds off the coast of the eastern U.S.

$$
GR