854
AXNT20 KNHC 151025
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Nov 15 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N17W and continues
southwestward to 10N20W. The ITCZ extends from 10N20W to 09N36W,
where it is broken by cyclonic surface winds around a pair of
surface lows to the north. The ITCZ resumes at 09N46W and extends
westward to near 08N59W. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring from 00N to 14N between 24W and 38W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1021 mb high pressure is centered over the Florida Panhandle
near 31N87W. The gradient between this high and lower pressure in
the Caribbean is leading to moderate NE to E winds in the Yucatan
Channel. Elsewhere, light to gentle anticyclonic flow dominates.
Seas are 1 to 3 ft, except 3 to 5 ft in the Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, moderate or weaker anticyclonic winds will
dominate the basin as high pressure moves from Florida toward the
central basin this weekend. The ridge will slide a bit east for
the start of next week, allowing southeasterly winds to become
dominant, with speeds gradually increasing, reaching fresh speeds
across the western Gulf by the middle of next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate convection is association with a stationary
surface trough that paralletls the coasts of Honduras and
Nicaragua as well as the eastern extension of the Pacific monsoon
trough is impacting waters within about 120 nm of the coast of
Central America. Fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas are
ongoing offshore central Colombia. Fresh NE winds are also
occurring offshore central Cuba. Mainly gentle trades dominate
elsewhere. Moderate seas are present throughout the basin, with
the highest seas in the western Caribbean.

For the forecast, the surface trough will meander offshore
Honduras and Nicaragua today, bringing showers and thunderstorms.
Fresh NE to E winds S of Cuba and offshore Colombia will diminish
by tonight as a weak pressure gradient takes hold over the basin.
This will result in an extended period of mainly gentle to
moderate trade winds over area waters for the first half of next
week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Low pressure of 1012 mb centered near 12N38W is inducing a broad
area of scattered moderate convection from 14N to 20N between 28W
and 38W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted within 60 nm
of a surface trough that extends from 30N46W to 22N70W. Farther
north and west, a cold front is noted from 31N53W to the SE
Bahamas. NW of this front, gentle to moderate N winds dominate,
with seas of 4 to 7 ft. To the east of the front, broad ridging
regulates the overall wind flow, with anticyclonic winds focused
around a 1018 mb high pressure centered near 25N35W. Across the
deep tropics S of 18N, mainly moderate trades prevail. Seas
through most waters ahead of the cold front are 5 to 8 ft,
although rough seas in N swell currently affect waters N of 28N.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will
stall by tonight from near 23N55W to N of Hispaniola, where it
will gradually dissipate Sun into Mon. Expect fresh to strong SW
to W winds and building seas across the waters N of 29N Sun, ahead
of a cold front forecast to reach the N part of the forecast
region Mon. Rough seas, in mainly northerly swell, will
periodically impact waters N of 28N through early next week.

$$
Konarik