669
AXNT20 KNHC 062304
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sun Dec 7 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and continues
SW to near 04N20W, then westward to 04N25W. The ITCZ extends
from 04N25W to 07N50W to NE Venezuela near 09N61W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection can be found from 03N to
10N between 15W and 26W, and from 09N to 11N between 52W and
61W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front extends from north-central Florida to a 1012 mb low
pressure located near 26N91W to the central Bay of Campeche where
it becomes nearly stationary. Scattered showers are along the
frontal boundary. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas
prevail N and W of the front while gentle to locally moderate SE
winds and slight seas are S of the front.

For the forecast, winds N and W of the aforementioned front will
persist into Sun as the front weakens and drifts northward. A
new cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf Sun evening and
overtake the current front, while sweeping across the basin into
early next week. This will lead to fresh to strong N to NW winds
and building seas in the wake of the front. Gale-force NW to N
winds are expected off Veracruz Mon evening. Winds and seas will
diminish Tue into Wed as the front stalls across the Yucatan
Channel and Straits of Florida, and high pressure settles across
the central Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is analyzed over the western Caribbean and
extends from 19N83W to 11N82W. Moderate to locally fresh winds
are near the northern end of the trough axis. Scattered showers,
with embedded thunderstorms, are related to this trough, that
crosses near Cabo Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua. A diffluent pattern
aloft is helping to induce this convective activity. Elsewhere
low-topped trade wind showers are observed on satellite imagery.
The pressure gradient between high pressure N of the basin and
the Colombian low supports moderate to fresh trades over the east
and central Caribbean while gentle to moderate winds are noted
over the remainder of the western Caribbean. Seas of 5 to 8 ft
are prevalent E of 80W, with seas of 2 to 5 ft W of 80W.

For the forecast, a moderate pressure gradient between a weak
Atlantic ridge along 26N, north of the Greater Antilles, and
lower pressures in northern South America will sustain moderate
to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas over the central
and eastern Caribbean through the middle of next week. Moderate
or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail
elsewhere. A persistent NE to E swell will support rough seas
across the Atlantic waters and passages of the Lesser Antilles
through next Thu. Looking ahead, a weakening cold front will
approach the northwestern Caribbean on Tue and linger across the
Yucatan Channel and Straits of Florida through Wed. High pressure
will build across the eastern Gulf of America by the middle of
next week, leading to strong winds and rough seas in the south-
central Caribbean into late next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front stretches across the far NW waters from 31N77W to near
Daytona Beach, Florida. Fresh to locally strong SW winds and
moderate to rough seas are noted ahead of the front to 58W and
north of 29N. In the central Atlantic, a frontal trough extends
from near 31N40W to 24N62W. A band of mainly low clouds, with
possible showers, is associated with the trough. The most recent
scatterometer pass indicated moderate to fresh SW winds ahead of
this trough, N of 26N and out to about 35W. The remainder of the
Atlantic forecast region is under the influence of a ridge,
anchored by a 1023 mb high pressure located over the Madeira
Islands. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate to rough seas
dominate the tropical Atlantic. Moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas prevail elsewhere. Multilayer clouds associated
with strong winds aloft are crossing the Cabo Verde Islands,
spreading NE into W Africa.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extends across the
far NW waters from 31N77W to near Daytona Beach, Florida. Fresh
to locally strong SW winds and moderate to rough seas are noted
ahead of the front to 58W and north of 29N. These winds and seas
will shift quickly eastward tonight into Sun, as the front moves
eastward. The front will extend from near Bermuda to central
Florida by early Sun morning then dissipate Sun afternoon. A
complex low pressure system and strong cold front will into the
northwestern tropical Atlantic Sun night and Mon, supporting
widespread fresh to strong winds and building seas ahead of and
behind the front Mon through Tue. The cold front will reach from
near Bermuda to the NW Bahamas and Straits of Florida Tue
morning, then gradually weaken and stall along about 26N early
Wed. Large N swell will move into the regional waters Tue through
Wed then diminish Wed night.

$$
GR