918
AXNT20 KNHC 030858
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon Nov 3 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 77.5W south of 20N, moving
westward at around 15 kt. Please refer to the monsoon trough/ITCZ
section below for any nearby convection.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic at the coast of Africa near
13N16.5W and continues southwestward to near 07N24W. The ITCZ
then is analyzed from 07N24W to just offshore northern Brazil near
02N48.5W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 11N
between 12W and 39W.

The NE Pacific Ocean monsoon trough extends across the SW
Caribbean Sea from the Costa Rica/Nicaragua border to northern
Colombia. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 14N
between 76W and 82W, and elsewhere from 12N to 17.5N between 81.5W
and 86W, enhanced somewhat by a tropical wave near 77.5W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front extends from a 1017 mb low pressure area N of the
Yucatan Channel at 24.5N84.5W to the NW coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula to along the southern Bay of Campeche. A reinforcing
cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend to 22.5N96W. Fresh to
locally strong winds follow both fronts per earlier ASCAT
scatterometer data, near gale-force off Veracruz, with building
seas, locally rough off Veracruz. Moderate seas are elsewhere
behind the front. Gentle winds and slight seas are ahead of the
front in the far SE Gulf including near the Yucatan Channel.
Scattered showers are possible near the low pressure area in the
SE Gulf per conventional satellite imagery.

For the forecast, the two fronts will gradually merge as they
sink SE across the basin through tonight before exiting or
stalling over the southern portion of the area into Tue. The
pressure gradient is forecast to tighten across the SE Gulf,
including the Straits of Florida, on Tue, supporting fresh to
locally strong NE winds and moderate to locally rough seas into
early Wed. Winds will veer to the SE and S toward the end of the
work-week as high pressure N of the area shifts E.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on a tropical wave moving
from the central to the western Caribbean near 77.5W.

A surface trough extends from near the Cayman Islands to offshore
central Honduras. Moderate N-NE winds are just W of the trough.
Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are in the central Caribbean
in the wake of the tropical wave. Moderate to fresh trades and
moderate seas are in the E Caribbean. Mainly gentle to moderate
winds and slight seas are elsewhere.

For the forecast, the surface trough will shift westward through
today while dissipating. Fresh to strong E to SE winds and locally
rough seas are in the wake of a tropical wave, currently moving
from the central to the western Caribbean, with axis near 77.5W. A
weakening cold front may move into the NW Caribbean tonight into
early Tue while the above mentioned tropical wave is expected to
merge with the frontal boundary. Fairly tranquil marine conditions
should dominate the basin by the end of the week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 28N55W to 30N65W to the central
Bahamas. A large cluster of thunderstorms is noted from 23N to 31N
between 69W and 74W. A cold front is just to the W off the SE
United States reaching from 31N78.5W to near Fort Pierce Florida.
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 240 nm ESE of the
cold front. Seas are 7-10 ft N of 28N between 40W and 56W. Moderate
to fresh trades are from 18N to 25N/26N between 45W and 74W with
6-7 ft seas. A 1015 mb occluded low is W of the Canary Islands
near 29N28W with a front wrapping around it within 180 nm to the E
and S of the low. Fresh to locally strong winds are on either
side of the low. Seas are 8-11 ft N of 21N between 24W and 40W.
Winds are mainly moderate or weaker across the remainder of the
waters with 4-7 ft seas, except 3-5 ft W of 77W and off N Florida.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will dissipate
to a remnant trough then shift westward today. A cold front
offshore northern Florida will slowly shift SE and reaching from
near Bermuda to the SE Bahamas by Tue morning. Fresh to strong
winds are expected on either side of the front later today through
late Tue, while rough seas persist in its wake through midweek.
The front will then weaken and wash out through midweek with
improving marine conditions from W to E toward the end of the
work-week, except N of 25N and E of 65W as a reinforcing set of NW
swell associated with a front clipping those waters moves through
Fri and Fri night.

$$
Lewitsky