112
AXNT20 KNHC 032204
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu Dec 4 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Agadir Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a 1031 mb high
centered near 35N27W and lower pressures over the Mediterranean
Sea will support NE winds gusting to gale force offshore the
Moroccan coast near Agadir. Accordingly, Meteo-France has issued a
Gale Warning for the Agadir zone from 03/15 UTC to 04/00 UTC. For
more information, please visit Meteo-France`s website at:
https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/2.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coastal border of Liberia and
Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 04N21W. The ITCZ stretches from
04N21W to 04N52W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from
02N to 10N between the W coast of Africa and 33W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front extends from the Florida Everglades to 24N88W
to 1013 low pressure just offshore Tampico, Mexico. A surface
trough extends from this low southward to just offshore Veracruz,
Mexico, and another extends northward along the Texas coast. N of
the front and W of 90W, fresh SE winds are ongoing, with seas of
3 to 5 ft. Elsewhere, mainly gentle winds prevail with seas of
less than 3 ft.

For the forecast, the stationary front will lift northward
tonight as the low over the NW Gulf strengthens. Moderate to
locally fresh southerly winds over the western Gulf will spread
eastward tonight into Thu. Then, another cold front will enter the
NW waters on Thu, and extend from SE Louisiana to near Tampico,
Mexico Fri morning, then stall and also lift north toward the
northern Gulf on Sat. Looking ahead, a stronger cold front is
likely to sweep across the Gulf region late Sun into Mon, bringing
fresh to strong NW to N winds over much of the basin. This front

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A robust surface trough along 64W is inducing numerous moderate
convection along and E of it back into the Atlantic. In addition,
fresh to strong E winds are present in the SE Caribbean to the E
of the trough. Fresh trades are ongoing offshore Colombia and in
the Windward Passage, otherwise NE to E winds are moderate or
weaker across the basin. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in the SE Caribbean
and offshore Colombia, and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, building high pressure north of the Caribbean
Sea will support moderate to fresh easterly winds over much of the
basin starting Thu and continuing into early next week.
Meanwhile, moderate to locally rough seas, in NE swell, will
persist across the NE Caribbean passages through the week and into
the weekend. A surface trough, currently located near 64W, will
continue to move westward across the eastern Caribbean through
tonight before dissipating. Fresh to strong winds and locally
rough seas are noted in the wake of this trough. The associated
moisture is producing some shower activity and isolated
thunderstorms across much of the Lesser Antilles. Looking ahead, a
cold front may approach the NW Caribbean early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See Special Features section above for information on a Gale
Warning in the far eastern Atlantic, offshore Morocco.

A cold front extends from Bermuda to near Miami, Florida. A pre-
frontal trough is noted from 28N70W to the Florida Straits.
Another trough is farther east, with an axis from 30N63W to just N
of Hispaniola. No significant convection is occurring with any of
these features, and winds and seas for waters W of moderate or
weaker.

Much of the remaining Atlantic is dominated by ridging stemming
from a 1031 mb high near 35N27W. The pressure gradient between
this high and lower pressures in the tropics result in fresh to
locally strong NE to E winds and seas of 7-11 ft occurring across
much of the Atlantic between 10N and 30N and E of 60W. The two
exceptions are near the Cabo Verde Islands and a region N of 24N
between 40W and 55W where moderate to fresh winds and moderate
seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will extend from E of
Bermuda to central Cuba by Thu morning, and from 31N55W to
eastern Cuba by Fri morning while dissipating. High pressure will
follow the front. Then, a ridge will dominate most of the forecast
area through the end of the week. The next cold front is expected
to clip the waters offshore of NE Florida during the upcoming
weekend, with a stronger cold front reaching the same area on Mon.

$$
Konarik