352
AXNT20 KNHC 041748
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu Dec 4 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1800 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 04N23W.
The ITCZ stretches from 04N23W to 01.5N50W. Scattered moderate
convection is present from south of 10N and east of 40W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A warm front extends from a 1012 mb low pressure centered near
the SE Texas coast to near 28N88W, where it becomes a stationary
front that runs into the SW FL Peninsula near Naples. Scattered
moderate convection is seen along these fronts from the surface
eastward to about 86W. Recent scatterometer data indicates fresh
to strong NE winds occurring in the NE Gulf north of these frontal
boundaries. Moderate to fresh S to SE winds prevail across much
of the Gulf S of these frontal boundaries. Seas are analyzed at
3-6 ft W of 90W, and 1-4 ft E of 90W.

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh S to SE winds are
expected over much of the Gulf today ahead of a cold front moving
through the southern United States. The front is slated to enter
the northwestern basin later today, and fresh to locally strong N
to NE winds and moderate seas will occur in the western Gulf
behind the front into Fri afternoon, with localized near-gale
force winds possible offshore of northeastern Mexico. Mainly
moderate or weaker winds are then expected over the basin Fri
night into Sun. Looking ahead, a new cold front is expected to
enter the northwestern Gulf on Sun and sweep over the basin into
early next week, leading to fresh to strong N to NW winds and
building seas in the wake of the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough analyzed across the eastern Caribbean is helping
in the development of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
generally E of 68W. Outside of convection, moderate to fresh
trades and 3-6 ft seas prevail across much of the basin. Locally
higher seas of 6-8 ft are analyzed offshore NW Colombia.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh E to NE winds and moderate seas are
expected over much of the Caribbean through late Sat as low
pressure prevails over the south-central basin and high pressure
drifts eastward in the central Atlantic. Locally strong winds may
pulse offshore of Colombia late tonight. Mainly moderate trade
winds are then expected Sun into next week. Rough seas in E swell
will prevail east of the Lesser Antilles and through the Atlantic
Passages into early next week. Looking ahead, a cold front may
approach the NW Caribbean early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N66W to near Miami, Florida. No
significant convection is seen west of 60W. Moderate NE winds
follow this front. Another cold front extends from near 31N56W to
29N61W, with a frontal remnant trough then extending
southwestward from 29N61W to the Turks and Caicos Islands.
Scattered moderate convection is seen east of the front and
trough, generally N of 25N and W of 45W. A recent scatterometer
pass indicated fresh to strong S to SW winds ahead of the front,
generally N of 25N and W of 50W. Farther east across the Atlantic,
a broad upper level trough is leading to multiple areas of
scattered showers occurring from 15N to 28N and E of 40W.

Outside of convection, ridging stemming from a 1029 mb high near
35N25W extends across much of the basin. This results in a large
swath of fresh to strong trades and rough seas in E swell south
of a line extending from Puerto Rico to the Canary Islands, and N
of 07N. Much of the remaining Atlantic is seeing moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas in E swell and moderate
to fresh trade winds south of 22N and east of 60W will slowly
subside into Fri. Elsewhere, a weakening cold front is slated to
move through the central Atlantic on Fri, leading to fresh NW to
NE winds and rough seas north of 27N and east of 65W through Fri
night. A low pressure system moving through the southern United
States will support fresh to locally strong SW winds offshore of
northern Florida by Fri morning, with fresh winds and locally
rough seas expanding eastward into the central Atlantic this
weekend. A cold front associated with this system will push
offshore of the southeastern U.S. this weekend, leading to locally
fresh N to NE winds in the wake of the front offshore of Florida.
Looking ahead, a complex low pressure system and strong cold
front may move through the northwestern tropical Atlantic by early
next week, supporting widespread fresh to strong winds and
building seas behind the front.

$$
Adams