883
AXNT20 KNHC 302222
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sun Nov 30 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Significant Swell: A large area of strong E winds
and seas of 9 to 12 ft extend across the central Atlantic from 19N
to 29N, E of 55W. These conditions are being generated by a
pressure gradient between Azores high pressure and a robust
surface trough that extends along 52W from 15N to 25N. The highest
seas are associated with near gale-force winds in a corridor near
the apex of the trough, from 22N to 26N between 45W and 55W. The
trough will continue to move to the W-NW at 20 kt and pass north
of the Leeward Islands by mid week. Winds will diminish slightly
through the period, but given the long fetch and duration of the
winds, this pattern will support seas building to 12 to 13 ft
through Mon over an area from 22N to 28N between 45W and 58W.
Winds will be moderate to fresh by Wed, but 8-10 ft seas will
persist across tropical Atlantic waters east of 60W through late
week.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 08N13W and
continues to 06N17W. The ITCZ extends from 06N17W to 03N51W.
Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 04N to 07N between
10W and 31W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front extends from near New Orleans, Louisiana, to the Rio
Grande. Strong NE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas follow the front.
Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 120 nm ahead of
the front, to the W of 95W. A surface trough along 88W from 23N to
27N is causing scattered moderate convection within 120 nm of
26N87W, with some locally fresh E winds occurring to the north of
the trough over the north central Gulf. Moderate to locally fresh
E winds are also occurring in the Florida Straits and adjacent
waters offshore NW Cuba. Elsewhere, mainly gentle winds prevail.
Seas are 3 to 6 ft across the basin ahead of the aforementioned
cold front.

For the forecast, the front is forecast to stall over the
northern Gulf Mon night into Tue, when a low pressure will form
off Texas and move NE across the southeast U.S. into the northwest
Atlantic. Thereafter, the front will move southeastward farther
into the basin, but then stall again over the central Gulf through
mid- week, as another low forms over South Texas. Looking ahead,
expect fresh southerly flow over the western Gulf as the low
pressure moves northeastward.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm of either
side of the axis of the eastern extension of the East Pacific
monsoon trough which is noted along 10N to the W of the Colombian
coast. Otherwise, moderate trades prevail over most of the basin,
except for fresh NE to E winds funneling through the Windward
Passage. Moderate seas dominate most of the basin, with slight
seas in the NW basin.

For the forecast, high pressure over the western Atlantic will
support moderate to fresh trade winds across most of the basin
through the early part of the week. Winds and seas will diminish
by mid week as the high shifts east. Looking ahead, expect fresh
NE to E winds again over the north-central Caribbean and off
Colombia by late Thu as high pressure builds over the eastern U.S.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for information on
Significant Swell in the Central Atlantic.

A stationary front extends from just E of Bermuda to the northern
Bahamas. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection has
increased this afternoon in association with this boundary, and is
impacting waters N of the Turks and Caicos between 65W and 73W.
Winds on both sides of the front are mainly moderate to fresh,
with moderate seas impacting Atlantic waters E of 60W. For waters
to the east, much of the area is being impacted by the surface
trough generating the winds and subsequent significant swell, as
described in the Special Features Section above. Just south of the
region of significant winds and seas, scattered moderate
convection has initiated in broadly divergent upper-level wind
flow from 15N to 20N between 30W and 45W. For the remainder of the
waters, particularly the deep tropics E of the Lesser Antilles,
moderate seas and moderate to fresh trades prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will dissipate
tonight, and high pressure north of the front will shift
eastward, allowing winds and seas to diminish. Another weak front
will stall off the northeast Florida coast by Mon, then lift
northward Mon night. Expect fresh to strong southerly winds and
building seas north of 28N and west of 74W late Mon and Tue as low
pressure moves from the northern Gulf to the Carolinas. Looking
ahead, these southerly winds will shift eastward Tue night into
Wed, north of 28N ahead of a cold front moving off the northeast
Florida coast Tue night. This front will reach from near Bermuda
to South Florida on Wed, and from 31N60W to central Cuba by late
Thu. Meanwhile, strong winds and rough seas will accompany a
trough moving westward into the waters NE of the Leeward Islands
through Tue. Then, the trough will pass just N of Puerto Rico on
Wed.

$$
Konarik