839
FXUS61 KBGM 132317
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
717 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Periods of light rain and drizzle continue into this evening, before
tapering off and ending overnight. Mostly cloudy and mild conditions
are expected on Tuesday. Cooler, breezy and mostly sunny weather is
then in the forecast Wednesday through Friday as a large high
pressure system slowly moves in from the Great Lakes region. Looking
ahead to the weekend, a warm front pushes through bring warmer
weather, but a chance of showers returns by Sunday with an incoming
frontal boundary.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A 1005mb coastal low centered just southeast of Atlantic City NJ
will continue spinning, nearly stationary into the early evening
hours. This will bring on and off periods of light rain and drizzle
to much of the forecast area through at least sunset. Additional
rainfall amounts will be light, under a quarter inch. The low then
weakens and starts spinning south/east off the DELMARVA coast
overnight, moving well east of Cape Hatteras, NC by Tuesday morning.
The upper level (500mb) low also spins east toward morning.
Overnight, it remains cloudy with patchy drizzle/mist/fog and light
showers still around, especially for east-central portions of the
CWA. Cool north-northeast winds continue and lows dip into the 40s.

Tuesday feature mainly cloudy skies are the coastal/upper level low
only gradually drifts east, and north-northwest flow develops behind
it. Think there will be at least some occasional breaks of sun at
times, especially by the afternoon hours. This allows for warmer
temperatures reaching into the 60s areawide. Partly cloudy,
seasonably and quiet weather is expected Tuesday night, as upper
level ridging briefing builds into the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A backdoor front sweeps in from the north during the day on
Wednesday, as 850mb temperatures fall from around +7C at 8 AM, to
around +1C late in the day. This frontal feature will bring a drier
air mass into the area from the north, with clouds expected to
decrease through the day. Cooler with highs in the 50s (except low
60s Wyoming Valley). The north wind will be breezy as well, between
8-15 mph with gusts up to 20-25 mph in the afternoon. Cool and
mostly clear Wednesday night and Thursday as the high builds in from
the west...lows dip down into 30s areawide...except upper 20s for
northern Oneida county and the high elevation valleys of the Catskills.
Thursday is shaping up to be sunny, breezy and cool once again
with an upper level trough in place northeast of the area over
northern New England. This trough of low pressure keeps the
pressure gradient in place for the breezy north winds. By Thursday
night the surface high builds overhead or just west of the
forecast area. This should allow boundary layer winds to decouple,
and with clear skies temperatures will plummet between 25 to
35F for overnight lows areawide. If confidence in this scenario
continue to increase in the coming days frost and/or freeze
headlines may very well be needed for the remaining active
growing season zones (northern Finger Lakes and Wyoming Valley).

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
This period should start off with generally quiet weather Friday and
Saturday as an upper level ridge approaches the region from the
west. A surface warm front is progged to push north Friday evening
into Friday night, associated with a well organized low pressure
system center over Central Manitoba. This warm front could bring a
few light showers along with some clouds to the area. It looks like
Central NY and Northeast PA will be well into the warm sector on
Saturday, with partly sunny conditions and warm temperatures around
70 in the afternoon. There are still some timing differences in the
model guidance, but it seems the next low and cold front will move
through the area sometime Sunday into next Monday...bringing with it
another round of rain. Temperatures look to remain warm on Sunday,
with a cool down arriving by next Monday...if current timing holds.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Early season Nor-Easter continues to bring low clouds and some
light rain/drizzle to our region. This will lead to mostly MVFR
conditions, with periods of IFR possible at ELM, BGM and AVP.
IFR ceilings will eventually to lift to MVFR tomorrow morning
before coming back to VFR late tomorrow afternoon/evening as
high pressure starts to build into the region.


Outlook...

Tuesday night through Saturday...Mainly VFR. Chance of valley
fog each morning.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...MJM
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...MPK