018
FXUS61 KBGM 061909
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
209 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered snow showers expected along and north of the Mohawk
Valley this afternoon and into the overnight hours. The weather
pattern will remain active, with several clipper systems
bringing chances for light snow over the next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A weak shortwave moving has kicked off scattered snow showers
across the region. Most of the radar returns over our area are
not reaching the ground as dewpoint depressions are 10-15
degrees across the area. A few heavier showers have allowed
quick bursts of snow to fall across the northern counties. This
will continue through the afternoon.

The shortwave trough axis will pass through the area this
evening, bringing more of a westerly wind across the area and
generating some light lake effect snow showers along and north
of the Mohawk Valley. Snow amounts will be light, with a trace
to a few tenths of an inch of snow falling for most of the area.
Northern Oneida county could see up to 1.5 inches of snow if we
can get a few hours of steady lake effect showers tonight. Lake
effect showers will dissipate tonight as winds shift to more
SWerly as another trough approaches from the west.

A shortwave and associated weak surface low will pass over the
region Sunday afternoon, bringing scattered snow showers mostly
along and north of the Southern Tier. The highest chances for
snow looks to be over the northern counties of our CWA Sunday
afternoon and evening. This system looks to be a quick hitter
with weak moisture availability so snowfall amounts will be
light. The northern Finger Lakes to Oneida county should see
around 1-2 inches of snow, with areas south to the Southern Tier
seeing a trace to an inch of snow.

Temperatures today and Sunday will top out in the low to mid
30s, with today being slightly warmer. Lows tonight will range
from the low to mid 20s in the valleys with mid to upper teens
across higher elevations. Sunday night will see a sharp drop in
temps behind the departing low pressure system with lows falling
into the low to mid teens across NEPA and stretching NW into
the the Finger Lakes. The rest of the area will see temps in the
mid to upper single digits with northern Oneida county falling
to near 0.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

High pressure will slowly transit the area Monday into Tuesday.
This will keep us dry but very cold as the mid level ridge and
surface high push cold arctic air overhead. Highs on Monday
will struggle to reach 20 across CNY, with NEPA in the low 20s.
Overnight will be the coldest of the week as temps will bottom
out in the low to mid single digits across the entire area. The
northern Finger Lakes will be in the upper single digits and
higher elevations in the Catskills and northern Oneida county
will be a few degrees below 0.

Tuesday will see a warm up as winds shift to SWerly ahead of
another approaching shortwave. Highs east of I-81 will remain in
the mid to upper 20s while west of I-81 will climb into the
upper 20s to low 30s. Temperatures will be non diurnal and not
expected to cool much Tuesday night as continued SW flow pushes
warm air into the region. Temps Tuesday night should remain
about as warm as they were in the afternoon. Snow showers will
return Tuesday afternoon as a weak open wave pushes through the
region. Isentropic uplift will drive these showers, with the
bulk of the showers expected to be north of the Southern Tier
Tuesday afternoon and overnight. 1-3 inches of snow will be
possible across northern Onondaga, Madison and Oneida counties.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The overall pattern does not change much this week, with a ridge
off the west coast of Canada and a trough over the eastern
portion of Canada. This pattern allows Alberta clippers to push
into the region with cold air usually in trail. This pattern
will produce the periods of snow discussed above, and this will
continue to drive clippers across the region through the end of
the week.

The first clipper of this period looks to push through Wed.
Precip currently looks to be a mix of rain and snow thanks to
the warm air advection that took place before this system
arrived. Lake effect showers should develop behind the system
Wednesday night as it exits to the east. Another clipper will be
fast on its heals, moving into the area Thursday night/Friday
morning. This one could be a little more interesting as guidance
wants to dig the trough farther south through the Ohio River
Valley, allowing the surface low to pass us to the S and E and
tap into the jet stream which will be over the eastern seaboard.
With the expected colder air in place from the clipper that
went through on Thursday, an all snow event could develop. We
will be monitoring this development over the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to persist at most of our taf sites
through the rest of this afternoon. RME will have a chance for light
snow showers and tempo MVFR restrictions through 22Z, SYR is
forecast to see CIGs lower to MVFR around 20z. ITH sees MVFR CIGs
next, as the lower cloud bases drop south by around 23z here, then
around 01-02z at ELM and BGM, respectively. AVP is expected to
remain VFR through this entire taf period.

Overnight restrictions and cloud bases are somewhat uncertain
as two weak lake effect bands (of clouds, flurries and light
snow showers) set up, generally west to east across the area
(270-280 degree flow).

This type of pattern should act to keep MVFR fuel alternate CIGs in
place over RME, starting around 00z and continuing all night, into
much of Sunday morning, before slightly lifting back to MVFR. Can`t
rule out some occasional MVFR type vsby restrictions here in light
snow showers overnight, but not enough confidence yet to include in
the TAF. The forecast for SYR is continued MVFR ceiling restrictions
all night, and right through the end of the TAF period Sunday
afternoon...with only minor cloud base height fluctuations.

ITH and BGM are forecast to end up between the bands of lower lake
effect cloud heights, returning to low end VFR after 04-06z, through
the overnight and into early Sunday morning. Then, MVFR clouds
are forecast to overspread these terminals from the southwest by
the mid-morning hours Sunday out ahead of the next incoming
weather system.

ELM is progged to remain in the southern lake effect MVFR cloud band
all night, before additional MVFR clouds overspread this terminal
from the southwest Sunday morning and into the afternoon hours.

Light southwest winds today, 5 to 10 kts most of the time. Winds
turn westerly overnight and remain light. Winds then shift south-
southwest Sunday morning and gradually increase heading into the
afternoon hours, up to 10 kts.

Outlook...

Sunday Afternoon and Night...Restrictions possible as a frontal
system and scattered snow showers approaches the region;
especially NY terminals

Monday...Becoming mainly VFR, but lingering restrictions possible at
the Central NY terminals due to lake effect clouds and/or light snow
showers in the morning.

Tuesday...Restrictions possible in scattered snow showers,
especially in the afternoon and overnight.

Wednesday...Restrictions likely as another frontal system
approaches the region with snow and rain showers.

Thursday...Restrictions possible with scattered to numerous snow
showers expected across the region.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JTC
NEAR TERM...JTC
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...DK/MJM