425
FXUS61 KBGM 102354
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
754 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions are expected tonight, but clouds will increase
and the chance for rain showers returns this weekend into and
early next week. Seasonable temperatures will be in place
through Sunday before a brief cool down Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure over the area will slide to the east tonight and
clears skies in place through the rest of the afternoon will
give way to an increase in clouds. With the flow out of the
south-southeast, it won`t be nearly as cold tonight with lows in
the upper 30s to the mid 40s. There still can be a few areas of
frost overnight in portions of N. Oneida County and the
Catskills.

A stacked area of low pressure moving across the Great Lakes
will push into western NY tomorrow. This system will draw up
moisture from the south from a developing coastal low well off
to our south. This will lead to some spotty showers for the
start of the weekend, especially during the afternoon. With
plenty of cold air aloft with the stacked low, some small hail
with any shower cannot be ruled out over western parts of the
CWA close to the center of the low. High temperatures tomorrow
will primarily be in the low to mid 60s, so a seasonably warm
day. Shower chances increase Saturday night as the low over the
NY continues to drift south and east and the coastal system
continues to come together with more moisture streaming north.
Lows will be in the 40s and 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The coastal low will slowly move from the Carolinas up the mid-
Atlantic coast Sunday into Sunday night and will absorb the low
over NY/PA. Scattered showers are expected to persist during
this time, however, as the energy from the weakening low to the
north transfers to the coastal system, there can be a lull in
the activity during the daytime on Sunday. With a tightening
pressure gradient developing, winds are expected to increase,
especially over the Poconos and southern Catskills Sunday into
Sunday night.

Sunday night into Monday, there is some uncertainty as to how
far north and how close to the coast the coastal storm will be
and thus how far north and west the main rain shield spreads
into our area during this time. Areas generally east of I-81
have the greatest chance of steady rainfall late Sunday through
Monday before the low begins to slowly pull away to the east.

With a prolonged period of rain chances through Monday, there
is the potential for some beneficial rainfall totals during this
time with a general 0.50-1.00 inch over the CWA. Northeast PA,
especially the Poconos, up through the Catskills have the
potential for up to 2.00 inches of rain, but with this being a
long-duration event, the potential for any flooding issues is
low. Highs Sunday remain seasonable in the 60s, then it will
cool down on Monday into the mid 50s to near 60 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The aforementioned coastal storm will slowly drift out to sea
on Tuesday as a flattening ridge moves in from the west. With
some uncertainty on the speed of the low`s departure, a low
chance of showers will linger during the day, especially east of
I-81. Beyond Tuesday, drier air does look to make a return
midweek before another wave moves in with a chance of showers
Friday into the weekend. Temperatures are expected to trend
cooler Tuesday through Thursday going from the low and mid 60s
to the lower and mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected across the area through the TAF period
as the region is sandwiched between 2 low pressure systems; one
to the NW and one to the SW.

Fog and IFR restrictions were removed from ELM for tonight. The
main reasons for doing this is winds are expected to be active
at the surface and quite strong just above the surface as
isobars stack up with the 2 low pressure system moving closer
together. Also, high clouds should move across the area tonight
from the west, helping to insulate the ground a bit and
regulate temps tonight, although satellite images are showing
them dissipating as they move into the drier air over the
region. Guidance is showing a small chance for fog in the pre-
dawn hours, which could be possible if winds are much lighter
than forecast, but confidence in this occurring is too low to
include restrictions at this time and model runs over the past 6
hrs have trended toward lesser and lesser chances for fog
developing.

At AVP, VFR conditions are expected although guidance shows a
slight chance for a marine layer intrusion in the late morning
hours. Dry air is expected to remain over the area into the late
afternoon hours, which should keep MVFR ceilings at bay. Rain
showers should move into the area during the late
afternoon/early evening hours, but with the dry air in place,
conditions should remain VFR until after this TAF period. This
goes for BGM/ELM/ITH as well.


Outlook...

Saturday night through Monday...On and off rounds of rain with
associated restrictions.

Tuesday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR. A few rain showers
cannot be ruled out, especially at the Central NY terminals.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DK
NEAR TERM...DK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...JTC