Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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328 FXUS61 KBGM 022209 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 509 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure system will be exiting the area this evening, with just some lingering snow showers or flurries around into the overnight hours. Partly sunny and seasonable weather is expected on Wednesday. Watching a strong cold front to push through late Wednesday night and Thursday with snow showers and few snow squalls possible. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... 500 PM Update The rest of the Winter Weather Advisories and the Winter Storm Warning have been canceled as snow has moved east of the area. Some light lake effect snow showers may develop over the Finger Lakes region later this evening into the early overnight hours. If snow does develop, it will be light and not impactful. 320 PM Update Winter weather advisories have expired or been cancelled for all counties except: Oneida, Otsego, Delaware, Wayne and Pike. The Winter Storm Warning for Sullivan county also continues. The lingering snow will be pulling east and out of the entire forecast area by 5-6 PM. Previous Discussion Below Current winter storm is quickly winding down now, with the snow exiting areas along and west of I-81 at this time (230 PM EST). Snow will linger, some locally moderate to heavy until 3-5 PM over our far eastern forecast zones, such as the Catskills and Pike county in NE PA. Winter Weather Advisories will be allowed to expire by 3 PM....except advisories continue for some light additional snow from Oneida down to Delaware County in NY, and Pike/Wayne counties in NE PA until early this evening (~6PM EST). The Winter Storm Warning for Sullivan county also continues until 6 PM EST where again, another few hours or moderate to heavy snow will occur. Overall, based on totals received much of the forecast area had snowfall totals fall in the range that was expected; between about 3-7 inches. We are still waiting to see what ultimately ends up falling in the winter storm warning zone across Sullivan County. The snow could end as a little freezing drizzle or sleet pellets this afternoon and evening, before colder air aloft moves in, reinvigorating some narrow lake effect snow bands off of Ontario and the Finger Lakes bands. Any additional snow accumulations after 7 PM will only be a light dusting at best. It remains mainly cloudy overnight and cold with lows in the 10s to mid-20s. Clouds linger Wednesday morning, with perhaps a few lake effect flurries early. Skies should partially clear for some sunshine later in the morning and afternoon. Temperatures will be seasonably cold, with highs in the 30s expected. Starting off dry Wednesday evening, with increasing clouds overnight out ahead of the next frontal system. Some snow showers begin pushing into our northern and western areas during the late overnight and predawn Thursday hours. Snowfall should be minimal, under 1 inch with these showers. Seasonable with lows in the 20s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Main concerns in this period will be the potential for scattered snow squalls on Thursday as a sharp cold front moves through the area. Exact timing is still a bit uncertain, but in general the squalls are forecast to move through from the morning to early afternoon hours, then transition to lake effect snow bands later in the day and evening hours. The setup looks favorable for the scattered snow squalls due to steep low level lapse rates, modest amounts of instability present, gusty boundary layer winds and plunging 925mb temperatures along and behind the front. Snow accumulations will be light, mainly up to an inch or two in Central NY, with lower amounts for NE PA. Localized higher totals are possible within the narrow lake effect snow bands in Central NY. The lake effect showers and narrow bands are expected to taper off and dissipate Thursday nigh as a 1030mb surface high moves overhead. Winds will diminish and skies may even clear out, leading to excellent radiational cooling parameters. Overnight lows are forecast to be very cold, ranging from about 5 below zero to 10 above, with some colder apparent temperatures possible even associated with the light winds. Friday will be cold, dry and partly cloudy with highs several degrees below average expected. Overall just some increasing clouds and a few flurries or a slight chance for snow showers heading into Friday night. Not quite as cold, with lows in the 10s expected. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A zonal flow to a broad upper level trough will settle over the Northeast US for the upcoming weekend. For our area this will mean some snow showers, minor lake effect bands and seasonably cold temperatures once again. It looks to turn even a little colder Sunday night, behind a Canadian front; this will bring lows down into the single digits to mid-teens over the CWA. Early next week brings more of the same, with steady, seasonably cold temperatures and more chances for intermittent snow showers around. A clipper system is forecast to be approaching the area late next Tuesday into the middle of next week...however the timing and track of this low can certainly change as we get closer in time. && .AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Snow is beginning to taper off slightly earlier than expected this afternoon. As a result we have already started to see improvements in visibilities at ELM/ITH. Improvements will continue from west to east as the system moves out of the region. Lingering IFR or worse conditions expected at RME/SYR/BGM/AVP early in this period before the snow ends. Otherwise MVFR ceilings and visibilities will return for through the remainder of the period. There is a low chance of spotty lake effect snow showers or flurries behind the system, but no IFR restrictions are expected. Winds will be less than 10 knots through the period. Outlook... Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Thursday...Occasional restrictions possible in scattered snow showers, especially at the Central NY terminals. Friday...Mainly VFR. Saturday...Occasional restrictions possible in scattered snow showers, especially at the Central NY terminals. Sunday...Restrictions possible as a frontal system approaches the region. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJM NEAR TERM...JTC/MJM SHORT TERM...MJM LONG TERM...MJM AVIATION...DK/ES