151
FXUS61 KBGM 261727
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1227 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild conditions hold through today before a cold front crosses
the region this evening, bringing showers and a sharp drop in
temperatures. Areas of heavy lake effect snow are expected from
Friday through Saturday across western and north central NY
Winds will also increase heading into the Thanksgiving weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Upper level low over the Great Lakes continues to push moist
southwest flow into our region today allowing spotty showers to
linger into the morning mainly over the northeastern portion of
our region. Otherwise most of the area will remain dry until
this afternoon. Increasing moisture and lift ahead of the cold
front will support scattered showers moving into the region this
afternoon. Elevated instability may be sufficient for a few
rumbles of thunder, particularly across the western part of the
CWA where SPC currently has a general thunder designation.
Otherwise well above normal temperatures with highs climbing
into the mid-50s to lower-60s across the area. Conditions dry
out tonight as much cooler air settles in behind the front.
Overnight lows will fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Southwesterly low level flow persists through Thanksgiving as
an upper level low moves into southern Quebec with a trough
extending back into the Great Lakes. Lake effect activity
remains limited through Thanksgiving day. The Lake Ontario band
stays north of Oneida County, while a Lake Erie band will likely
affect Steuben County and possibly reach higher terrain north
of BGM with light accumulations.A more significant lake-effect
event begins early Friday as the upper trough passes and winds
shift to the west-northwest. Models consistently show two main
lake effect bands, one from Georgian Bay and another from Lake
Huron. The Georgian Bay band is expected to cross Lake Ontario
and impact north-central NY, where confidence is high and Winter
Storm Watches are in effect.The Lake Huron band could reach the
Poconos Friday afternoon, but model spread is large. Any snow
amounts would be light around an inch, but could still cause
travel issues including the potential for snow squall warnings.
Snow totals in the watch area are likely 612 inches, with 36
inches in the higher terrain of Steuben County. NBM 5.0 snowfall
aligns well with these numbers. Winds remain sub advisory, with
gusts up to 40 mph, highest in the northern Finger Lakes post
front and over the Poconos on Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Lake effect snow showers will likely linger into Saturday
morning, possibly longer. There is a ridge of high pressure that
builds into the region on Saturday and this will eventually cut
off any remaining lake effect snow showers. Additional light
accumulations will be possible. The quieter conditions will be
brief as low pressure system moves into the Great Lakes Region
during the second half of the weekend. A warm front will lift
north and bring a chance for rain and snow showers Sunday. In
addition, temperatures trend warmer as well. The cold front is
not far behind, passing through the region overnight and keeping
precipitation around.

There is more uncertainty heading into early next week. Drier
air looks to return on Monday though lake enhanced showers north
will be possible. The next chance for more widespread
precipitation will be possible on Tuesday but guidance differs
on the timing and extent of this system.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Strong cold front will push through the region this evening with
scattered showers and gusty winds. These showers may bring brief
IFR restrictions, but capped any restrictions at MVFR for
visibility and ceilings for now.

Following a frontal passage this evening, winds become
southwest to westerly and more breezy. The highest gusts during
this TAF period are expected after 00z with peak gusts around 25
to 30 kt.

Outlook...

Thursday afternoon through Friday night...Lake effect snow and
associated restrictions likely, especially late Thursday night
through Friday at KSYR, KRME, and KITH. Strong wind gusts at
all terminals.

Saturday...Some lingering restrictions possible in lake effect
clouds and flurries, otherwise gradual improvement.

Sunday and Monday...Occasional restrictions possible in
scattered rain and snow showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Winter Storm Watch from Thursday afternoon through Saturday
     morning for NYZ009-018-036-037.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ES
NEAR TERM...ES
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...BTL
AVIATION...BTL/MPK